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Real-time filings -
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/sec/filing.asp?Symbol=amd
Jack
j3pflynn -
What I find curious is the 04/27/04 expiration date. Why sell 02/11/04... taxes, perhaps?
When does AMD report 1st quarter results?
Jack
drjohn -
Yes. W. J. Sanders III, to be exact.
Sorry I didn't make that clearer.
Jack
Jerry is selling -
200,000 on the 11th (in the 15.60's.) It looks like they were set to expire 04/27/04.
On the other hand it seems that Oppenheimer and FMR have bought and filed SCH 13G >= 5% Acquisition.
Jack
Edit: FWIW, Jerry still controls nearly 520,000 shares.
KeithDust2000 -
I don't follow Cray too closely however CNBC just reported (after I posted) that they reduced guidance to 300MM. I'd imagine they would want to say something positive.
Jack
KeithDust2000 -
They are killing Cray today - Down 30%.
Jack
borusa -
ESOP's are Emplyee Stock Option Plans. I'm not sure about ESPOPS.
Jack
OT -
Could anyone tell me when 'Happy Hour' is - or if it has been cancelled?
Thanks,
Jack
wbmw, Elmer -
I've seen it trade between 16.75 and 17.95 after hours.
Jack
wbmw -
Flat flash in Q1 is a good thing. I don't mind higher ASP's either. To me, this looks to be positive guidance notwithstanding typical seasonal patterns.
Jack
FWIW -
I have sells in at 16.65, 17.35 and 17.90. All are GFD only.
Have a good day.
Jack
rumdum -
I have not read the article but according to this http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19702509 it was First Global.
Jack
yourbankruptcy -
Without going into too much detail, I re-purchased xxxx shares at 14.50 on December 19th. My plan was to trade these short-term since they are in a non-taxable account. I'm thinking of breaking it into thirds and see how the day goes. Perhaps I will keep a third and sell some of my LTCG's instead.
So far, indications are that you are correct. AMD should do well.
I have to stick to my strategy though. If I didn't, I'd be on the phone with my general practitioner - I'd need to find out if I should call a podiatrist or a proctologist to have my foot removed from my ass. :)
Best of luck to you.
Jack
Standard & Poor's Equity Research
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&dateid=38006.4215972222-8113...
I'm still trying to fight the urge to sell.
Jack
Phergy -
That friend was probably Robert Noyce. With Friends like that...
Jack
Chipguy - Edit
Having observed you postings for so many months...
Jack
sgolds -
Yes. You are correct - I did mean Tuesday.
I'm about 90% invested in AMD right now between my different accounts. I had to get away from it today to keep myself from selling - that may come back to haunt me.
I tend to follow 1day/1 minute - 3day/5 minute 5day/15 minute -10 day/30 minute and 20+ day/60 minute charts. I haven't had much time this evening to look, but a glance tells me that should AMD turn down on Mo... I mean Tuesday :) the daily chart could get ugly quickly.
As far as the market as a whole, I think that will be AMD's biggest headwind in the near-term. I could be wrong on that but thats the way I'm playing it this time around. 2100 on the Nas, while not too bad IMO, seems to have come too easily. I'm sure I'm not the only person sitting on some LTCG's that need to be cashed in.
Speaking personaly, I wouldn't mind at all hearing about your business plans. Best of luck and let us know!
Jack
yourbankruptcy -
My plan has been to be out of the market before February - except for a token position. I have way too much money in AMD right now - thus my nervousness. I am planning to sell between 33 and 50% of my AMD on Monday. Likely 50%. In that case, I would be able to sleep late again. :)
The balance may have to be sold at lower prices although I like AMD for the longer term (for me that's 8-12 months) even at these prices. It all depends on the market and what it's telling me after earnings.
I hope that most here also feel that TA is not OT. I would like to see more of that here if the board approves.
Best of luck with your options.
Jack
dougSF30 -
I understand what you are saying. In fact I would add to earnings season, holidays and/or a fundamental change as well. It is too easy for some large money to manipulate the figures.
Jack
BUGGI1000 -
Thank you for the book recommendation. I'll check it out this weekend if I have a chance to.
I'm not a big fan of trailing stops. I have been shaken out before. I saw AMD trade at 14.77 after Intel's earnings came out. You have to feel bad for that person. Probably a stop loss that was triggered. I'm usually near my computer and prefer to pull the trigger myself. I do think they have a place - for some people.
With respect to having a plan I totally agree. One should know what they expect and what to do should the trade go against them. Cut bait and run.
Thanks for taking the time to reply.
Jack
OT again
I should also say that the 20 week MA was what I used as confirmation.
I must admit to being very nervous at the moment. I may have to sell a portion of my shares - soon. I'm going out to lunch this afternoon so I don't sell today. :)
Jack
OT - TA
I have been using an RSI, EMA of 5 for my charting. I find it to be fairly predictive with respect to AMD. It's not ALWAYS correct but I find it usefull.
For example, if you look at a 6 month daily with an RSI of 5 you'd notice that the mid October/early November/mid November RSI peaks were all 'screaming' correction, as sgolds has/had mentioned.
Conversely, the RSI lows in early to mid December showed some strengthening that just so happened to coincide with the dip in mid October that I had Identified as a bounce point via a trendline on my charts (others here, including Hail Mary and sgolds did so publicly.)
I thought I'd pass along the number and let some of you look at it. I am NOT seasoned at this and have limited knowledge here, so take this as useless information.
Simply put, TA helps me to take out some of the emotion in trying to time the markets.
If someone with more experience with respect to TA would - tell me what you think of the 5. Have I just been lucky?
Jack
Probably posted already - from 12/8/03
Most have probably seen this however some (including myself when I was out of town) may have missed it.
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Advanced Micro Devices appears ready to post a profit for the first time in two years, but an accounting rule will likely force it to reduce those earnings by as much as a penny a share.
The issue is convertible debt -- money lent to companies in exchange for the right to own shares in the future. Companies don't count those shares while calculating per-share profit or loss if the shares artificially improve the bottom line.
But once a company's profit hits a certain level -- which differs from company to company based on how the debt deals are structured -- the shares need to be added to the outstanding share count.
AMD (AMD: news, chart, profile) could hit that level this quarter if it earns about 5 cents a share, well within current Wall Street estimates. At that point, it will have to count another 50 million shares when it figures out its earnings per share.
That 14 percent boost in the number of shares outstanding could shave 0.63 cents a share off the chipmaker's bottom line, enough to round the earnings down a full penny.
AMD will not be alone. Since 2000, almost $350 billion has been raised through more than 1,000 convertible debt deals, according to Prospect News, a publisher of bond market newsletters.
Many of these debt issuers, benefiting from an improving economy, could face significant amounts of dilution as previously excluded stock begins to enter share counts.
"This is an issue that investors overlook, but it is a fairly common one for companies going from no or low profits to sustainable profits," said Bala Dharan, professor of accounting at Rice University.
'The whole picture'
AMD hasn't reported a quarterly profit since the second quarter of 2001, but this quarter the company is expected to earn 3 cents a share, with some analysts predicting earnings as high as 10 cents a share.
The impact to AMD's bottom line is the price of success for a company that sold large amounts of convertible debt. AMD sold a total of $900 million of convertible securities in two separate transactions in 2002.
Indeed, the same accounting rules will trigger more dilution once AMD earns about 22 cents a share, requiring AMD to add another 20 million shares to its count. The company could hit that 22-cent level four quarters from now.
A company must withhold certain shares from its count of outstanding stock if they are "anti-dilutive," meaning that the shares would artificially improve the bottom line if included in per-share earnings or loss calculations.
For example, AMD excluded 77 million shares because they were anti-dilutive from its third-quarter share count, according to a quarterly filing with the SEC. Anti-dilutive securities include warrants and stock options eligible for exercise, convertible bonds and preferred stock.
In that third quarter, AMD reported a loss of $31.2 million, or 9 cents a share based on 347.3 million shares outstanding. If AMD had included its 77 million anti-dilutive shares, its per-share loss would have improved to 7.4 cents a share.
Accounting rules dictate that fully diluted earnings show the smallest earnings that can be reported by assuming the complete exercise of all outstanding stock options and warrants, as well as the total conversion of convertible bonds and preferred stock.
The point at which the shares must be included in the outstanding share count is based on when, and at what prices, the debt can be converted into common stock.
However, pinpointing the exact effect on net income is difficult due to various "financial and technical criteria," an AMD representative said.
The impact of the dilution on AMD's stock remains to be seen. Shares have doubled to around $16 since mid-August and have almost tripled since March.
Semiconductor analyst Krishna Shankar with JMP Securities called the potential dilution a factor investors should consider, but said that the overall trend of the business, including revenue growth and uptake on its new 64-bit chips, should be of greater importance.
"Investors will probably look at the whole picture -- what the absolute level of the net income is relative to expectations," he said. "At this point, people are buying AMD not for its current earnings, but for the potential of flash memory and AMD64."
Jack
sgolds -
That was my thought as well. The only mention of flash with respect to revs. in the filing was that Flash memory units were approximately flat.
They go on to say that In flash, the company ramped shipments of its latest Intel StrataFlash(R) memory for high-end cellular phones into volume, enabling the company to transition the majority of its flash bit shipments from 0.18-micron technology to 0.13-micron technology during the quarter.
Jack
sgolds -
Nice post. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.
Jack
KeithDust2000 -
RE WCCG. On page 12 of Intel's filing;
The Intel Architecture operating segment's products include microprocessors, chipsets and motherboards. The Intel
communications Group's (ICG) products include wired and wireless Ethernet products, network processing components and embedded computing products. The Wireless Communications and Computing Group's (WCCG) products include flash memory, application processors and cellular baseband chipsets for cellular handsets and handheld devices.
On December 10, 2003, we announced that we would be consolidating certain communications-related businesses within ICG and WCCG into a single organization, the Intel Communications Group. This reorganization is effective for 2004. As the reporting period for this earnings release is as of December 27, 2003, the operating segment results for these communications-related businesses are presented under the organization structure that existed as of December 27, 2003.
The "all other" category includes acquisition-related costs, including amortization and impairment of acquisition-related intangibles, in- process research and development and the fourth quarter of 2003 charge for impairment of goodwill of $611 million. In addition, "all other" includes certain corporate-level costs and operating expenses, including a portion of profit-dependent bonus and other expenses that are not allocated to the operating segments. The results for 2002 included an impairment of identified intangible assets of $127 million as well as a charge of $106 million related to the wind down of the Web hosting business.
Jack
sgolds -
I could be wrong - isn't Linksys a division of Cisco now?
Jack
sgolds -
The only references to R&D I'm finding is this quote from John Joyce, IBM's Senior VP and CFO (on Page 17) Our annual $5 billion investment in Research and Development, and our technology and patent portfolio, differentiate us from our competitors, giving us leverage across our business that no one else has.
Also that R&D for 2003 was 5.1 billion - up one hundred million from 2002. They claim the increase is due to aquisitions. I'm not seeing any projections for 2004.
I did find this quote, also from John Joyce, (on page 27) interesting;
In the past few years, we have not been addressing our longer-term growth objectives because the industry was in decline. We felt it would be naive to talk about growth when we knew that our customers weren't spending. No one really knew how long it was going to take for customers to work off the excess IT capacity of the late 90's. But in 2003, we said that the industry had stabilized, and I would characterize 2004 as a year when the IT industry will begin its next growth cycle.
Jack
sgolds -
Yes. Those R&D numbers are Intel's.
IBM's filing is 45 pages long. I'll post it shortly.
Jack
sgolds -
It looks like the vast majority of IBM's growth came from the greenback's decline.
From the SEC filing;
Fourth-quarter revenue growth of 9 percent (1 percent at constant currency) was driven by growth in all geographies. In the Americas, fourth-quarter revenues from continuing operations were $10.6 billion, up 4 percent (1 percent at constant currency) from the same period last year. Revenues from Europe/Middle East/Africa were $9.1 billion, an increase of 17 percent (1 percent at constant currency). Asia-Pacific revenues rose 13 percent (3 percent at constant currency) to $5.4 billion. OEM revenues decreased 14 percent (14 percent at constant currency) to $714 million compared with 2002's
fourth quarter.
I have not finished reading either filing (Intel/IBM) although I did notice that Intel claims 57% margins for 2003 - expanding to 60% for Q1/2004, then again to 62% for year 2004.
An interesting point from Intels filing;
Expenses (R&D plus MG&A) in the first quarter are expected to be approximately $2.3 billion. Expenses, particularly certain
marketing- and compensation-related expenses, vary depending on the level of revenue and profits.
R&D spending is expected to be approximately $4.8 billion in 2004, as compared to $4.4 billion in 2003. The expected
increase in R&D spending is primarily driven by development of
the company's next-generation 65-nm process technology,
scheduled for production in 2005 on 300-mm wafers.
Jack
P.S. While I feel compelled to, I won't get into why I feel able to post/read here. It should be obvious to all.
Elmer -
Why can't you stop with the mutant alien thing? I believe it makes you look foolish. it's hard to take anything say seriously when you respond like that.
If you don't know how to make money on AMD (not only was that wowtapper14's question but I believe that is what matters most) go count PrescHOTS usable die, or something. You know - something you're really, really good at.
After all, that whole 'making money on the market thingy' is vastly over-rated, right? The only thing that really matters is who can toss the most (F)mud around in an AMD chat room.
Sorry, I was kinda bored too.
Be good,
Jack
I think there's an important fact that's been overlooked
AMD’s stock has kept near the low end of this range during periods it has been losing money, which excluding Q4’03 is the
current state of affairs.
So they think that going from 170k to 500k A64's is going to cause earnings to go from .02 to (.05) ?
I don't get it although this is what I'd expect from a Market Maker.
Be good,
Jack
CombJelly -
Thanks. We're packed like women, or so my wife would say (I throw, she packs.)
Happy Holidays,
Jack
OT: Mysef -
I've only been to TX. once. I went to Dallas with a few friend's just to play some golf and catch a Cowboy's game. We sat on the sunny side of the field and I don't think I ever sweated so much as I did that day... it was a great trip.
I hadn't thought of Golfsmith. I see they are headquartered in Austin.
Thanks,
Jack
OT: tecate - on Austin
Thanks for the Chuys tip. TexMex is right up my alley. I've been looking forward to eating as much as anything on the trip.
We are staying downtown and will have a chance to hear some of that famous live music, I'm sure. That should work out nice.
So... margaritas in the Hill Country, at Chuys, before and after dinner and while listening to music at 1:00 am...
Check,
Check,
Check,
Check and Check.
I think we could do that. :)
Thank you again,
Jack
CombJelly -
Thank you for saving me the trouble of a formal request with shareholder relations. I had suspected that would be the case; however, you would think that they would have some kind of a generic walk through... even if only quarterly.
Hmm... video, eh? :)
OT Austin, TX.
I'm headed to Austin in a few days. Does anyone know if there is a tour of the Fab that one might be able to take? Perhaps recommend a couple good golf courses, or restaurants?
Just thought I'd ask.
Thanks,
Jack
AMD tops Intel
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s newest microprocessor chip for server computers runs twice as many of the servers sold in the third quarter as a competing Intel Corp. semiconductor, researcher IDC said. Computer makers shipped 10,746 servers with Opteron, the chip from Sunnyvale-based Advanced Micro, Intel's biggest rival in processors, IDC analyst Mark Melenovsky said. Intel's Itanium powered 4,957 servers, which run networks and Web sites.
http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82~10834~1806413,00.html
They don't say how many per machine. Has anyone seen the text from Bloomberg? All I'm getting on Google is the Oakland Tribune and Mercury news.
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/business/7402115.htm
Jack
dougSF30 -
LOL.
It's Friday Doug. Nearly the 7th day of the week! Get some rest. :)
Jack
dougSF30 -
RE: I just have rigorous standards for what I'll accept as 'gospel'. You don't have time to "find" all the studies that confirm your pet theory? Good luck finding them. They don't exist. Without having seen them, one wonders why you accept the theory at all. But then, I suppose religions are popular these days. Good luck with yours.
I don't recall anyone putting forth this theory as gospel, or religion. Only one of hopefully dozen's of things one should/COULD consider before investing (emphasis on could for effect.)
I'm sure I have your take on this - you've made it clear so there's no need to continue.
Best,
Jack