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The only scam here is the one run by the short sellers as they attempt to cover.
That may or may not be true. One way or another, with a potential 3530MMBOE in the Levant Margin Reservoirs AU, as described in the USGS report under "Total undiscovered resources" column F5, the potential for financial gain from this play remains enormous. On another note, since this is a high risk/high reward play,open to interpretation, investors are reminded to only invest what they are willing to lose.
Your the second person to tell me that so I have to assume I'm wrong. Thank you.
I believe the data submitted by the USGS to be accurate. The one thing that keeps nagging me about this play is, Did we drill deep enough? This is my argument: Original data indicated that the Triassic was sitting 1600ft higher at the Ma'anit site. Later data indicated that the Triassic, is actually 1292ft higher.Using previous data supplied I determined that in order for them to hit the pay zone they had to drill to 18970ft TVD, assuming 1600ft higher, and 19278ft TVD, assuming 1292ft higher. The concern I have is that the second sidetrack deviated from the vertical more than they think,resulting is less TVD than required.
By my calculation: (19357MD)
TVD (Degree off vertical)
19339 ( 3)
19250 ( 6)
19118 ( 9)
18697 (15)
18302 (19)
With these calculations, I'm trying to show that if the Triassic is actually lower (1292 not 1600) than first thought,and if the angle off vertical was greater than thought, then the TVD they drilled to is not deep enough.
Another excellent update. Obviously they're drilling in a difficult section. By my estimate, this section should carry on for another 822 ft of TVD taking the drill bit to 17377ft. From there it should be smoother drilling to 19360. I expect them to hit oil at a point just above that depth. jmho
After hashing it out all weekend on another board I've arrived at the following conclusions:
1)1640 ft of hole was left uncased because they want to use this area to test the Joseph Reef. (I figure they need about 1250 feet to turn the drill bit)
2)The drill bit was changed because they expect to drill through some very hard shale/dolomite.(This rock layer forms the cap rock)
3)Well #2 was drilled along the slope of the cap rock. That explains why they chewed up the Tri-cone drill bit so badly. That also explains why the cap rock seemed so thick.
4)The structure they are drilling into is a dome.
5)They should hit the top of the Permian at 16000ft
Will they find oil in the Permian? I don't know but I do know that numbers are adding up. For example 4+0+0+1+1+3+1+2+7=19
These conclusions are jmho
Once again I really don't care about the stock price. The important thing is that ZN has enough money to continue drilling. On another note, I suspect the casing is set and the drilling has re-started. Of course I expect the drilling rate to slow as the drill bit cuts through the cap rock. jmho
The settlement procedures for warrants are the same as those for rights.In other words, contact your broker. On another note, todays action was rather interesting. I suspect holders of the ZNWAW series sold shares on the open market to raise cash to exercise their rights at the time sensitive bargain price recently announced. Of course they could have waited for news but then again no one knows for certain what the news will be. Regardless their actions created a buying opportunity for me. Of course I could be totally wrong. Then again, I could be dead on. jmho
Just curious. Now that you've accepted the fact that I don't work for the company, and that I don't have access any inside information; what will you say when I make a poor mans fortune on this play?
Waiting on cement...From previous updates we know ZN planned to drill a little deeper before running casing. We also know water from volcanics is a problem so they have to drill far enough to get a successful seal. Anyway, the well is expected to hit the lower Triassic (Scythian) at about 4611m. Once the casing is set, the well should be clear to continue drilling to the expected top of the Permian at the 4850m level. Of course well #2 showed us at least 300ft of cap rock(shale/dolomite) ,which isn't a bad thing since we need a cap rock to trap the suspected oil deposit, so the Permian will likely show up at a different depth than at first thought. Regardless ZN now has a rig in place that can reach those depths with ease. jmho
Coming together nicely...Now that investors know the company can change the rules around the warrants, to suit changing market conditions, the potential value of the warrants becomes enormous. This sets the stage for some tremendous gains in the new warrants. jmho
You're so unteachable. Actually you asked me 3 questions; Question 1. "Do you work for the company?" Answer No. Question 2."or Are you affiliated with them in some capacity?" Answer is: I am a share holder. Question 3: "Who thought this?" Answer is: The obvious signs in the clouds caused most investors to think something.
"While history never repeats itself exactly, its patterns can be useful in forming a kind of 20/100 forward vision. We observe that certain kinds of events occur repeatedly like lightning in a summer rainstorm. We try to impose a regular pattern on those occurances, because the human mind is a pattern-creating consciousness. We fit events to one or another of the events that have been suggested and quite often events let us down. They predict a thunderstorm and no thunderstorm comes. They are not as reliable as Newton's heavenly cycles of the planets around the sun. Then as soon as delay or failure has made us lose confidence in the cyclical theory, the lightning does strike and we start to believe again, or half believe." In other words; in human affairs their is no certainty about the future, but we can all look overhead and see the clouds.
Some thought they might split the warrants 2 for one. Others thought 3 for one was possible. Anyway, a reduction in exercise price works too. Original $10 unit holders have a cost of $7 with the price adjustment. A temporary 30% loss on a high risk/high reward play like this one is almost negligible when one considers the total gain possible. jmho
The conflict between Brass and Bronze...Interesting to note Brass wasn't discovered until about 500BC, yet the Bible clearly mentions Brass. In comparison, Bronze was discovered about 3500BC. Perhaps it's a problem in translation that is easily explained. Anyway, I find it interesting that "Scythian age" oil was mentioned, especially because of Scythian Bronze. On another note, I suspect the shares will endure some downward pressure for a bit, at least until we can confirm something of significance.
Massive gas find confirmed at Leviathan...The theory is that the head pressure of the gas is high enough to squeeze oil through cracks and fissures into traps on the Ma'anit high. The Scythians wore helmets of bronze.
The "Largest expected mean field size" in the "Levant Margin Reservoirs AU" is 177 MMBO. The price of ZN stock reflects a 95% discount to it's potential value on just one drilling prospect. We know ZN has multiple drilling prospects so judging by the size of the float lifting the stock to an 81% discount on just one play isn't that unrealistic. That's likely why the warrants reflect a price of 19. jmho
All you need to know is that sometimes short sellers will sell more stock to drive it lower and shake out the weak hands. Simply put; the warrants more correctly reflect where this stock should already be. jmho
Gas shows expected...Assuming M-J#3 is following the pattern set by M-R#1 we should start seeing gas in the mud drum soon. On another note; today is the last day to lock in the new warrants and shares so market games are likely, as game players try to shake out the weak hands. jmho
Another excellent article...Of course the important thing to remember is that Givot Olam is targeting the western extension of the productive Syrian Palmyra Rift. ZN is targeting the Permian. If things work out right, ZN should be able to prove that oil migrated along cracks,into fault traps on the Ma'anit High. The Permian is expected to be deeper in the Mediterranean but the hydraulic pressure created by the water head and the gas cap should be sufficient to squeeze the oil through the cracks into fault traps on the Ma'anit high. ZN with it's significant acreage, small float, and low share price could easily become a take-over target. jmho
Thanks. I appreciate your input too.
Another excellent update...By examining the numbers, one can come up with a number of conclusions. For example, the company expects "Triassic age lithology" below the 10827 ft level (3000m). This is interesting because we know, from MR#1 they encountered a Triassic surprise at the 10833 ft level. (This put the late Triassic 1600ft higher than expected.)With MJ-#3 we can conclude they expect the same Triassic surprise. Looking ahead, assuming the geology is similar, we can expect gas shows starting at the 12400ft level. These gas shows should carry on for about 650ft. In short, by examining the results from MR#1, one should be able to stay just ahead of the drill bit and perhaps be on the lookout for surprises.Of course I expect them to hit the early Triassic (Scythian) age at the 15238ft level. From there they'll have to determine if the oil came from deeper, or if it migrated horizontally from under a structure out in the Mediterranean. Perhaps from under Leviathan where the Permian is expected to be lower.
The funny thing about it all is that if ZN is sitting on what I think they are a 1000 for one split isn't that unrealistic, although a 70 times 7 "forward" split might be more appropriate. On second thought a 1000 for one split might make the shares a little more affordable to all the squabblers.
Sometimes it makes sense to reverse split a stock to reduce the size of the float; At other times it makes sense to split the stock to increase the size of the float. In this case, increasing the float size would not be a bad move. jmho
What were you saying about 70 times 7 times? Anyway, it's not about luck. On another note: I never said anything about a reverse split.
Fault traps on the Ma'anit High...You either believe there's Permian oil trapped there or you don't. Truth of the matter is, finding an oil trap is a bit like finding a needle in a hay stack. This company may have it's origins in Bible inspiration, but science is starting to play a bigger and bigger role. As an investor, it's hard to ignore a USGS report that indicates that the "largest expected mean field size" in the Levant Margin may be 177,000,000 BBL's. A find of that magnitude would have an explosive effect on this stock especially with the float so small. Who knows, it may behoove the company to split the shares at this point. jmho
Sounds like you've never heard of "Dry Hole Hunter."...Truth of the matter is Northern Israel has never been properly explored.
No Guts No Glory... As the numbers continue to add up, all those on the outside can do is sit back and criticize. Of course once the oil starts flowing the criticizers will have no choice but to join the crowd of squabblers.
Setting up nicely indeed...As expected, weak hands are pushing the share price lower. Of course number crunchers know that any price below 4.85 is a bargain. On another note, number crunchers also know that PERMEAN = 72 and 72 divided by 4 =18 Of course spelled correctly, PERMIAN =76 and 76 divided by 4 = 19 Bring in 5+7+7+1=20 and you end up with 18+19+20 =57 Divide by 19 and you end up with 3 What does it all mean? Let's just say opportunity is never lost. That's because someone else always capitalizes on the opportunities you miss. Onward to the PERMIAN. Of course "The Scythian is just above the PERMEAN" We should start to see oil of scythian age at the 15238 foot level. What we seek, lies beneath.
Now that the enormous potential of the gas find is sinking in, those that missed out are squabbling. Anyway, the main target is still oil.
The company issued an update on Nov 5th
Sounds like things are progressing well. Anyway, sometimes all you can do is sit and wait. Of course I've arranged for all my rights. On another note, What do you think about Iran drilling in southern Lebanon?
An interesting article indeed.
Ma'anit #1 was far from disappointing. I say this because it showed us oil of Scythian age. (The Scythian is just above the Permean) Ma'anit #2 was far from disappointing. I say this because the directional drill showed us a hard cap rock. (The geology of Northern Israel is very similar to the Khuff ) What will M-J #3 show us? I suspect it will show us that the pay is deep. jmho
Where there's gas there's oil. This is a generally accepted statement. The world's biggest gas discovery in 2009, was made at Tamar, 60 miles off the coast of Haifa. The nearby Leviathan field is estimated to be twice that size. The Permian lies deep beneath this find making it extremely difficult to access. Interesting to note, the Permian rises upwards onto the Ma'anit high, exactly where ZN is drilling. Does Israel have oil? I think you will have your answer soon.
Every well tells a story. This is a high risk high reward play. Don't be playing with the family fortune. We're all adults here. If the oil exists we'll find it. If it doesn't never mind it. jmho
I was never any good at shorting stock, but I do have a lot of respect for those that do it with success. Regardless, things may seem a little tough out there right now, but I can assure you, a lot of people want to see this company succeed.
Are you suggesting ZN farm out oil acreage in exchange for gas acreage?
Perhaps not, but there's sure a lot of gas in the Levant Basin. I'm looking forward to the M-J#3 and 4 and 5 and 6... Bottom line, I like the look of the seismic.
I guess that's the way it is in the oil patch. The funny thing about it all is,if you hit everyone tells you how lucky you are.
I suppose it would be nice if we could all receive options.Since that's not the case the best most of us can do is exercise a profitable trade from time to time. Anyway, I exercised all my rights in the hope that the company finds something of value with the money provided. It looks like the shares are in a downward trend, which isn't so bad, and not all that uncommon with a stock like this. On another note, I'm a little pre-occupied with BP at the moment, but if the opportunity comes I'll lock in some profits there to take advantage of the sale here. All in all it's shaping up to be a pretty exciting August. jmho
Refering to Figure 2 .... A person looking at figure 2, which clearly shows the geology of segment A-A', should be able to see why ZN thinks that oil, potentially formed in the Permian "A," lying under the "Levant Sub-Salt Reservoirs AU," migrated along fault lines to become trapped between major faults, clearly shown on both sides of the "Levant Margin Reservoirs AU." jmho