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Doubtful that VXX will go up on a week of light volume. VXX is on contango. Unless the market makes a serious down move VXX will go down all week. I'd switch to VXX puts, which is what I have.
SPY HOD. New all time highs today? TNA gonna fly, VXX gonna crash.
VXX was the Play this week for sure. I would loooove to see SPY hit new highs this next week if not tomorrow. Spy top is only 180.50 and that's half a buck away and futures are up. I'm not even playing with options that expire tomorrow, I have next friday and dec13 but the weekly was where the money was yesterday. If spy hits new highs vxx will collapse. But tomorrows options are too risky cause of resistance and the tendency for the mm's to fuck with the price just cause its expiration. Next week is holiday week low volume so perfect time to ramp it premarket like always. No reason for things to be any different pomo forever.
So what I'm saying is, if you have the capital to play some lottos tomorrow. The VXX 44 puts will be dirt cheap, and if the market goes up / stays up / especially if it hits new highs, vxx can easily break down below 44, and whether you hold or dump your position piece by piece or trade it, there will at least be volatility enough for some quick trades. especially as far as calls are concerned if the market goes up but then starts turning around. Those vxx calls will have massive % ranges. Personally, I think it's more likely the market will go up tomorrow, but I'm playing with more time.
This guy thinks SPY +0.70 tomorrow on jobs report.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-economist-predicts-exact-223215390.html
Meanwhile I have VXX calls.
VIX Ratio Shows More Long-term than Short-term Fear
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vix-ratio-shows-more-long-170852008.html
Here’s a unique take at the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) in correlation with its lesser-known cousin, the CBOE S&P 500 3-month Volatility VXV (Chicago Options: ^VXV).
The VIX (VXX) is a gauge of expected volatility for the next month.
The VXV is a gauge of expected volatility for the next three month.
The VIX / VXV ratio lets us know if volatility traders are more concerned about the short-term (1 month) or long-term (3 month).
As with most everything VIX related, this works better as a contrarian indicator.
The S&P 500 / VIX / VXX Ratio chart below plots the S&P 500 (^GSPC) against the VIX/VXV Ratio.
View enlarged S&P 500 VIX/VXV chart here
As of Friday, the VIX/VXV Ratio dropped to 0.87. This basically means that volatility traders expect less volatility over the month compared to the 3 month.
The ratio is not yet extreme, but it’s close to the 0.856 reading that coincided with the September high.
Since 2011, the S&P 500 (SPY) has struggled when the VIX/VXV ratio was around and below 0.82.
Based on the VIX/VXV Ratio, the S&P 500 is approaching a level where caution is warranted. Further insight is provided by VIX seasonality.
VIX Seasonality
The last time we looked at our proprietary VIX seasonality chart was on October 8. At the time, VIX seasonality suggested a minor VIX (TVIX) high and a bounce for stocks.
VIX seasonality kept us on the right side of the trade in early October, but the real big seasonal VIX turning point is still coming up.
The VIX seasonality chart (available here: VIX seasonality chart) highlights the second-best seasonal VIX trade of the year.
Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report.
Market's gonna crash. Big divergence in VXX / SPY. VXX hitting highs while SPY hitting highs.
Sell VXX puts, Buy GS Nov 13 150 puts @ 1.21
Reentered next weeks vxx 13 puts @ .25. obviously should have kept todays for max gains but i wanted to protect myself.
Sold VXX oct13 14 puts @ .51. made .30 profit. Definitely could have held longer, it's still dropping, but playing weeklies I had to bail at a profit and not risk more.
Thanks. I would have played last week but my account wasn't funded until this morning.
Bought VXX 14 Puts expire Friday @.21 earlier this morning. Doing well so far! Go SPY go! Rally rally rally!
UPB - Wynn 110 Calls - Worthless, or still a chance for this week?
Green all week. VXX new lows coming.
VXX is dangerous at these low levels. I used to love it for its wide moves, but now it feels very restricted. That being said, Calls on VXX look great, and I think the bottom is in myself. All the markets across the board drew a sell confirmed line for me, and VXX should go up alongside it. Problem is you hold lottos and that doesn't give you much time to move. Of course, all you need is a couple bucks on VXX. That could be EASY to achieve if we have two heavy down days. Just take "bottom" on vxx with a grain of salt. It will dwindle down to nothing until they have to reverse split. Any bottom is gonna be short term unless europe collapses or the earths hit by a meteor or aliens invade.
IN Calls for BIDU, SINA, LOW, & HPQ. Holding some vxx calls for insurance. Got good entries in everything on the pullback at the open too. LOW I was in since yesterday.
LOW - bought april 23 puts, march 27 puts, and march 30 calls.
Well it depends on how far you're playing it. I'm putting a little in weeklies but I usually trade a month or two out on vxx. if you traded the weeklies and did the pullback, awesome job. im impressed with your decision, but im still anticipating a sell off here.
VXX Calls - dumped them at the open and went back in with 1/3 positions. its pulled back and i wish the 1/3 was puts rather than calls. thinking about re-establishing the vxx calls end of the day.
Right. The constant printing of fiat paper by the federal reserve has been causing inflation since 1933. Most of the nature of the 'up' since 2008 has been QE and POMO. Instantaneous money buying debt devaluing the dollar and propping up the stock market. Only when it comes to Greece we're talking about a potential unstructured unsustained default that SHOULD drag down a few large dominoes. I'm not anticipating a major event like this until the fourth quarter of this year. What I think we're having now is a spike in volatility as a result of the looming potential for default, and this spike should cause an uncertain and bearish trading environment for 2-3 weeks.
It doesn't matter what kind of hype and nonsense people throw around. It's not bears hiding in the closet, it's more like EVERYONE hiding their heads in the sand. The entire financial system is currently at a precipice, and when it goes down it's going to take a lot of people with it. We're going to witness the violent death throes of the old financial system.
THE THING IS
If Big Ben devalues the dollar by 40%, the stock market will go up 40% overnight... THEN crash.
People laughed when I called VIX bottom on friday. Seems to me like it's up over 20%.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
Keep dreaming. We're at the edge of a cliff.
I think this is a big mistake. Todays market sell off was mostly based on global growth slowing. Fear and volatility will rise the closer we get to a potential greek default. Think about it logically. The contrarian play should be made during thursdays session not at the end of tuesday.
You do realize the last time this was a concern the VIX was 75% higher than it is now. VIX will spike and your puts will be worthless.
Totally called today last friday. I wish I had my friends get weeklies instead of next weeks!
Here's my prediction.
Volatility up wednesday and thursday followed by news that the default has been 'put off' weak market up for one week, followed by greek default two weeks from this thursday.
VXX! Run baby run! Potential default on Thursday? No way volatility is taking a breather over the next two days.
As VXX pushes into $26 I'm starting to think about doubling down on some of the weekly 29s. The next two days should be bloody.
A disorderly greek default and the slowdown of global growth.
Market lower tomorrow and thursday on fear.
So I guess I was right about volatility this week. :)
Strong close for BCRX might see AH pop on conference call. SHLD over a dollar from 76 where I shorted. VXX down against my calls, but volatility up 4.4%. If it goes up again tomorrow we might finally see the futures rise.
BCRX running. Picked up Mar 6$ calls @.15
bought 12x SHLD MAR12 65p @1.01
S&P down 9. VIX up 7.7%. VXX Lagging behind.
The market needs to break cloud support and drop through the trend apparently for VXX to get some positive volume. Right about the S&P and my VXX calls are down like 10%. So far it looks like TNA puts would have been a better play. Of course, the play of the day as far as I'm concerned was the BIDU puts in the morning. Didn't have the chance to buy them.
I have a bunch of march 28 calls that I will daytrade this week and be out friday so I don't lose the premium over the weekend.
Crash you POS! That way I can take some profits and buy bidu calls on the dips! PS - BIDU was a hairy day on friday. I had two of my friends exit friday expiration call options between 80 cents and a 1.20 which were both heavily in profit for the two of them. Could you imagine if they held it straight to the end of the day? With the spike up, down, then up again, we all would have had consecutive heart attacks. It would have been tough to hold right to the bell for last weeklies.
I think we'll have a down march and an up april followed by a down may.
So your logic is - if volatility is going up next week, it should have gone up last week? How about -- no. Don't say I didn't warn you. Volatility is just about the only thing I've ever been right about on a consistent basis. Unlike stocks, it makes its move not based on its own technicals but based on the market and market perception as a whole. Not calling a bottom because it didn't technically hit a bollinger band on the VXX ETN is a mistake in judgement. VXX bottomed while in contango. It's about to sky rocket. April calls on VXX are a sure thing.