is either scanning ultrasound, working DD, or riding his bike
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The choreographed ballet continues...
Apparently someone has finally gotten to the bottom of this by consulting the oracle...Baby Emerson.
http://blogs.forbes.com/kaipetainen/2011/03/19/kai-asks-baby-emerson-about-ccme/?partner=yahootix
Why he's afraid of blown Pinnochio noses is beyond me.
rhino-
[ri'no-]
rhin-, prefix meaning "nose or noselike structure": rhinocephalia, rhinolalia, rhinoplasty.
http://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/rhino-
ihtbir,
"My first encounter of fraud in CGS was CKGT. In the name of useless patents, CEO transferred millions into his personal accounts."
I was thinking the same thing, but interestingly enough, as yet, I have not seen any more dilution (which one would think would keep this theorhetical fraud train rolling along).
I'm still in it, but at a loss presently (as one might expect with the RTO noise).
GLTA
tiesto,
I share your sentiments. I was in CCME over the summer of 2010 but ended up selling @ a loss. One of the main reasons for selling was the fact that it was being pumped so hard by the CGS folks. Take that to mean whatever you will. They have good info re: stocks, but extreme caution and DD must be used to temper whatever information might be garnered from the board.
My .02 cents.
Agreed, not exercising the Kodiak put would be very positive indeed. Once the cigarette factory is paid off the cash should start rolling in. Margins here are nice.
Lucky me, I stumbled on this IR firm after a relatively short exposure at self investing.
They're a couple hours South of LA. I could go, but I'm not sure what purpose it would serve (except maybe to make me mad). I wouldn't want to go Postal
We'll see what happens over the next year.
Steve,
While I'm here, it looks to me like they still owe $2.54099M on the Dadi cigarette factory. Their cash flow statement agrees with theur verbiage from their latest 10Q...
The Company paid RMB 10,500,000 (approximately $1,569,435), the first 30% installment due under the agreement, in July 2010. The Company paid an additional RMB 7,500,000 (approximately $1,121,025) during the quarter ended September 30, 2010. The Company is expecting to pay the remainder RMB 3,000,000 ($448,410) of the second 30% installment of RMB 10,500,000 by the end of November 2010. The Company currently out sources manufacturing of its cactus cigarettes. Title transfer of the assets to the Company is now expected to take place by end of December, 2010 or in early 2011. Neither the Seller or the Company are expected to be required to incurred a 10% penalty based on delayed Company payments or asset title passage.
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Purchase of patent (8,088,226 ) -
Purchase of land use rights - (4,224,870 )
Purchase of property and equipment (17,083 ) (4,113,831 )
Collection of amount previously advanced to related party 223,379 -
Deposits in connection with Asset Purchase Agreement (2,690,460 )
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017699/000120445910002783/d10q.htm
That IR firm has got to go!
I called and got an answering machine. But the woman on the machine answered with the inflection that I was actually talking to a real human. "Thank you for calling Equity Trend......PSYCH.......We are either on the phone or..." Then on to the answering machine message. You know, the kind of nonsensical gaming that high school kids and young adults play for a few years before joining the adult world.
Not, I repeat, NOT what I want to hear from a firm representing a firm in which I have capital invested!!!
What a nightmare for CKGT management. They probably can't translate the inflection. I am going to write them tomorrow and explain this as well as complain about the 8K. x10 earnings, yeah right.
Little Rascals clip worth a laugh
I think our grandparents were "way ahead of us." They diagnosed the problem with the China small cap sector well before we were even born. The difference here is that there was plaster in the Little Rascals milk while there's nothing wrong with the majority of companies in the space. The word of mouth regarding scams, however, is the same.
CSGH opens $15 million line of credit ---
Looks relatively shareholder friendly
Re: Geo...I cracked too. Woke up this morning, saw the China-Biotics SIAC rumor. Sold the rest of my China small caps. I'm quite certain I don't know enough to hold these stocks going forward. To quote a CGS favorite, "Uncertainty will certainly not work for me any longer." Anyway, I'm nearly all cash and it's going to take quite allot to get me back into the space anytime soon.
GLTA
IOH aka Mike W.
JoeN was commenting the other day about the shorts. I think he's right. CCME, LPIH, etc... won't go up simply because the shorts don't want to pay us (and if the markets crash again, won't have to). To me, I see this as simply a group of belligerent shorts waiting to get paid.
With that having been said, I am long and hope their suffering is epic should the market not correct further.
IOH (just paid off my car so I guess I don't OH so much any more)
Very interesting time for traders coming up. Early FY 2010 results due June 11, generalized market mayhem, beat down China sector, and exclusion from the Russell index late June.
One could make a fortune! Me, I intend to hold .
IOH
Looks like we're getting knocked off the Russell
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50493899
I recall the spike when China-Biotics was added. If the same happens again it may present a very attractive buying opportunity. Myself, I'd sell and rebuy except for the fact that you guys would immediately spike the PPS to the $50 it's worth shortly after I sold.
IOH
Option --- I'm not an option guru and had 3 naked put positions open a month or so back. I found I couldn't handle the implied margin should the unthinkable happen so I covered them @ a slight loss. The margin, should they be exercised, was only a small amount (about my entire net worth in March 2009).
IOH
Top 10 POS list
1) CHTL.OB
2) CAEI
3) HQS
4) CNOA.OB
5) GRRF
6) CHFI.OB
7) SGZH.OB
8) YSYB.OB
9) AOB
10) XING
Honorable mention: CSR, FUQI, GCHT, CSGH, CIHD, NTE, GU
IOH
SGZH --- Hate replying to my own messages but isn't there an Asian crime syndicate called the Tong? Coincidence?
ImOuttaHere
SGZH --- Ok, so frozen ground accounts for the Xing An shutdown. I'm looking foward to hearing an explaination for the complete lack of sales (and I'm assuming production) at the Tong mine in Q4.
Note to self: Do not overweight equities with no IR firm or working phone #'s.
IOH
SGZH --- Not that I care any longer as I sold out but does anyone have any rational explaination as to why Songzai mines and they decides not to mine at both of their locations. You'd think they'd want to keep the mines operating at a stable rate even if they had to ship the coal some distance. I'd imagine the infrastructure is prohibitive of shipping?
Example: No coal was produced at the Tong Gong mine in Q4. Just as no coal was produced at the Xing An mines in Q2 or Q3.
Question: Is PUDA's 12 mine consolidation going to run into these same types of problems?
IOH
Rames, please remove SGZH from my 1 year hold top performer list. Revision as follows:
CHBT
CCME
LPIH
SOKF
CEU
CHOP
I have no other equities or opinions I'd like to add, other than disgust with SGZH. Do we have a short list?
IOH
A song for Songzai
AC/DC's Touch too much.
You could say I'm not exactly satisfied. You could also say I doubt very much this is the work of the "First and the Last."
IOH
I sold 100% of mine. Should have been outta here @ $7.50 or $8. Too many quality stocks out there to gamble on this POS.
IOH
I sold 80% of my position
To bad to be true!
I'll have to tell my psychiatrist about this one. Oh yeah, I already did a few days before the accounting irregularities showed up . It's her damn it, I know it's her!!!
IOH
SGZH 10K out <eom>
Rames, top...err...7
CHBT
CCME
SOKF
LPIH
CEU
SGZH
CHOP
I follow the CGS board and see allot of top 10 predictions for 2010. It is rare to see China-Biotics on any of the lists. I feel this will change by 2011, and should change presently. These guys just opened their new 150 ton (x12 capacity expansion) manufacturing plant in March 2010. On top of this they broke ground the second phase of this buildout (another 150 ton plant) in December 2009. They say that the first 150 ton plant will be running @ 50% utilization rate by Dec. 2010. This is a $404M market cap company as of 4/3/10 with $151M cash balance. Even with the gradual ramp up of capacity utilization the company is still guiding at least 50% rev growth for 2010! What do you think the rev % growth will be for 2011? 2012? Even my challenged napkin math ratios tell me this company is going places...fast! The market cannot ignore this kind of value and growth forever.
IOH
Fernando re: CCME --- Looks like their bus count was 16,000 as of July 1, 2008.
From 10K --- "CME’s digital television advertising network consisted of over 16,000 express buses and over 34,000 digital television displays. For the seven months ended July 31, 2008"
So let's use that for a starting point in 2009. 16,000 to 21,000 is a 31.25% increase growing the $41.7M 2009 revs to $54.73 in 2010. Tack on another 15% for CPM increase and you've got $62.9M. Throw in a full year of the Embedded ads segment you mentioned (~$31M) using company wide net margin of 43% and you add $13.3M to the total ending up with $76.2M without any acquisitions, new buses, or new investments in other media projects.
I stand corrected. This is one scary stock!
IOH
CCME: You can't compare it from Oct's 18k to the 21k right now. Look at the bus count at the beginning of 2009 to see the difference. If I remember correctly, the company had roughly 14.5k-15k busses at the beginning of 2009, giving us a 40% increase at the beginning of 2010.
If you read the 10-k carefully (along with the PR) you can note that the new segment (Embedded ads) which started in August 2009 contributed 12.9M revenue and the company spent 1.5M to produce the embedded ads (third party made them if I remember correctly).
Thats from Aug to December, so that important segment did not contribute in 2009 from Jan to August (2/3 of the year).
This is a VERY significant incredibly high-margin segment.
Regarding the direct clients, I believe Jacky said the CPM rates are roughly 15% higher for direct-client compared to agency-clients. I assume this hold true even now after the agency-clients have gotten that stated CPM price-increase, otherwise they would not be going for direct-clients.
-Fernando
So the $41.7M revs from 2009 needs to grow to $70M (or increase by ~ 68%). They are moving from 18,000 buses as of Oct. 2009 (see 8K dated 10/16/09) to 21,000 buses (a 16% increase). $41.7 x 1.16 = $48.4M. Ok lets also increase the price by 15% making the $48.4M grow to $55.6M. You're saying the increase in direct clients will account for another $15M in 2010?
I'm having trouble buying the guidance without possible acquisitions, new buses & new investments in other media projects in 2010.
Mike
Disclosure: Long CCME
CCME - I personally believe the guidance is conservative.
With expanding margins via an increase in direct clients, plus an already implemented increase in ad rates of 10-15%, plus a full year's revenue from 21,000 buses, and it's doesn't take much to get to $70+ million in net income.
-Adam
CCME --- Adam, I am thinking the same thing as you are. The guidance they issued was a bit too good. During the CC I wondered if they might have misspoken due to ESL issues (English as a second language) specifically regarding achieving their goals without accounting for "acquisitions, new buses, or new investments in other media projects." Where, I wonder, are the revs going to come from then? They said they will not be able to raise prices *significantly* over the near term.
Shrug. My impression is that the company will grow ALLOT over the next 2 or 3 years so I'm not going to worry about the near term gyrations that might (or might not) happen.
Mike
PRIMED FOR IMPLOSION
<EOM>
SCAM written all over this thing!
They even have gall to let the boom fall on April Fools Day, adding insult to injury.
IOH
Rato,
FUQI --- I sold for a loss also. I bought AH just before the lawsuits were announced and sold a few minutes after open for a cool 10% loss. I didn't want to argue with the shorts based on the following criteria:
1) Chinese company
2) Accounting irregularity
3) Lawsuit(s)
4) High short interest
I didn't want to wait around on the shorts to blink. I could be waiting a long time. In fact, they could escalate leaving me with an even larger loss or the option to raise my "investment" stake in a company with accounting irregularities and lawsuits. As the say in poker, play the man and not the cards.
ImOuttaHere
Yep, the training programs are coming on strong. Love the margins, niche, well funded, and plans for multiple 2010 acquisitions.
Just sold POS FUQI @ 10% trading loss from yesterday's AH session. Used funds to invest here.
IOH
CCME --- Fernando, Adjusted Net Income in Q4.
That would be me. Anyone care to take the time to explain?
IOH
Or they saw the 41M below 'earn-out' and don't realize what this means for Adjusted Net Income in Q4.
Make that $65,000,000 cash on balance sheet
You are probably right. I just listened to the CC again and he said the funds would be used for <garbled> growth. He went on to speak of organic growth.
I also spoke with CSykes who confirmed that they would not be diluting until at least they move to the OTC. At the time I expressed to him that I would prefer they wait until the NASDAQ. As of a week or so back I not longer care as I sold out @ $1.31 .
IOH
Ahh, you mean the money that would be used for an accretive acquisition? I see. Your right, I had forgotten about that.
One thing to note though: Supposedly the company already has 5M shares in its 'treasury' that are counted in the O/S...So at current market prices, thats already around 7M out of the 20M financing 'built in' to the current O/S count.
-Fernando
$20 million dilution documentation
It was mentioned about 3/4 of the way (if memory serves) through the recent CC that Maj of Geo investing hosted.
http://www.mediafire.com/?1fmqnuymmqn
IOH
Cash dividend then a $20 million dilution --- Does this strike anyone as a little strange?
IOH
Hey burp, I've got one of those too
Jim,
Did you sell? I'm in PUDA and SGZH and managed to get myself to sell a measley 550 shares of PUDA. Investor psychology, always at war with ourselves.
GL,
IOH
Jim,
You have most assuredly worked it .
GL,
Mike