Fernando re: CCME --- Looks like their bus count was 16,000 as of July 1, 2008.
From 10K --- "CME’s digital television advertising network consisted of over 16,000 express buses and over 34,000 digital television displays. For the seven months ended July 31, 2008"
So let's use that for a starting point in 2009. 16,000 to 21,000 is a 31.25% increase growing the $41.7M 2009 revs to $54.73 in 2010. Tack on another 15% for CPM increase and you've got $62.9M. Throw in a full year of the Embedded ads segment you mentioned (~$31M) using company wide net margin of 43% and you add $13.3M to the total ending up with $76.2M without any acquisitions, new buses, or new investments in other media projects.
I stand corrected. This is one scary stock!
IOH
CCME: You can't compare it from Oct's 18k to the 21k right now. Look at the bus count at the beginning of 2009 to see the difference. If I remember correctly, the company had roughly 14.5k-15k busses at the beginning of 2009, giving us a 40% increase at the beginning of 2010.
If you read the 10-k carefully (along with the PR) you can note that the new segment (Embedded ads) which started in August 2009 contributed 12.9M revenue and the company spent 1.5M to produce the embedded ads (third party made them if I remember correctly).
Thats from Aug to December, so that important segment did not contribute in 2009 from Jan to August (2/3 of the year).
This is a VERY significant incredibly high-margin segment.
Regarding the direct clients, I believe Jacky said the CPM rates are roughly 15% higher for direct-client compared to agency-clients. I assume this hold true even now after the agency-clients have gotten that stated CPM price-increase, otherwise they would not be going for direct-clients.
-Fernando
NEVER SURRENDER!
AI
