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Apparently he doesn't know there is a "demo trade this system for free" option? Just wanted to see how he actually does while I'm away.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=87098045
Yes, you may close positions before expiration, but the spread on the contracts can be troublesome. Depending on what you're trading the binary options on, the spread can be anywhere from $5 to $10, on a contract that is worth a max of $100. For example, say I want to buy the EUR/JPY 7AM, 128.40 binary. The spread is currently at 60.50 x 69.50. So if I buy it at 69.50, it would have to move several pips on the base pair before I would be able to sell for even money. So it isn't the easiest thing to do, making money before it expires, but you do have the ability to close out of a position before expiration, if you want to.
The S&P 500 futures tend to have better spreads of about $5, and can be quite profitable to trade on a flat trading day. The last 10 minutes with the hourly expiration available during market hours, if you see the futures right between 2 of the strike prices (2 points between them on the hourly stuff), you can buy (or sell) the nearest ITM and OTM contracts for $20-30 potential profit, and usually it works out. Likewise, after a big drop, if you expect a bounce in the next few minutes, the strike just a little out of the money (less than 2 points), can be extremely cheap, like yesterday with the 1PM, 1540.3 strike. I bought a contract at 12:51PM when the futures were down around 1539, for $13.50, and sold a minute later at $71.5.
It all depends on your risk tolerance, how you choose to trade there, but more often than not, with a near-expiration, slightly ITM or OTM strike, I've managed a double in 3-4 hours before I end up being foolish and lose it all going all-in on something.
I tried to end the day on a high note, but the EUR/JPY pair dipped just below 128.00 at the 11PM expiration, so my other winning trades that expired at 11PM were negated by that loss. Still, not a bad day, started at $32.50 (only had $29 invested the first trade, guess I had a few left in the account), and ended at $254.
Maybe I can keep it going, get a few more lucky days to end out the week at a workable balance. No more going all-in though, I have learned my lesson. I even took a 20 cent gain on one trade, to keep myself from putting everything in play at once.
Here's my day's balance fluctuations to anyone interested. Maybe if I provide some sort of update, I'll be more inclined to stick to the "Don't put all your eggs in one basket" approach. One final note, just because the balance moves up and down in spikes, that is simply based on entry times, not closing times, so I may have taken a few losses on the later trades, while I made money on the earlier entries, but the drop could be shown at the end. Still, it will give a general sense of where things are going, I would think.
Hello everyone, I hope the market has been treating you well over the past week. Today at lunch, I decided to log back into my Nadex account, and found that I still had about $29 there. I figured, the money was pretty much lost already, considering what it had come down from, and would give it a shot. Made a few quick trades, to go from $29 -> $45 -> $60, then caught a nice move shortly before the 1PM expiration to move up to $142. A few trades later, and I had peaked up near the $230 mark, before a few last minute moves had knocked me back to $97. A few last minute trades at the end of the day, and I managed to close out the day on the S&P futures, at least, at $149.50. I'm doing my best to try to work up to something I can work with, once more, and if progress is made, will attempt to update it here. The worst that can happen is I lose what was just earlier today, the last $29 in the account. But if I manage to be smart about it, and don't aim for the 400% gain like I had today (at one point, 700%), maybe I will once again be able to join my fellow option traders. This past month has been tough, and the rebuilding process, albeit tedious, will be quite the relief if I manage to rebuild from the ashes that my account had burned down to.
I wish you all the best of luck, and will do my best to make the gambling that is Nadex, turn in my favor so that I might once again fight the urge to trade AAPL options with the best of them.
Good bye everyone. Best of luck to you all. I am done trying to convince myself that I can do this, as clearly, I cannot. This is my last post on iHub. I hope you all find continued success on this wonderful board.
If I say "no", it will, and if I say "yes", it won't. However, in knowing this, would my initial statement have been influenced by this likely outcome, and be the reverse of what I was initially inclined to go with, hoping to "trick" my luck into letting me be correct? But now that I am thinking that the reverse of my initial instinct is also wrong because my luck would have it be so, should I again reverse my reversed initial guess, back to the original state? Oh how I hate the paradoxical dilemmas we sometimes come across.
That being said, I think it will have a tough time getting back to that $180 mark this week, given the previous support it seemed to have found around $179, breaking.
I guess if it hasn't happened in the past year, it hasn't happened at all. Nobody does their homework anymore.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/09/market-snapshot-dow-industrials-sp-500-hit-intraday-records/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=09&b=11&c=2007&d=09&e=11&f=2007&g=d
Yes, we did, because it wasn't in response to your original message. I didn't actually look through the entire board making sure people didn't just post new messages rather than in response to your original. I will update the list when I get home from work, I suppose, looking for those who may have done the same.
I am aware that $420 puts expire worthless unless it closes under $420, but he never SAID he was playing the weekly $420 puts, only that he was playing puts, and looking for a test of $420. So, I am simply stating that he was in fact correct, puts were the play to make for the week, and it did in fact test $420.
At the open on Monday (it was around $442), he may have purchased the weekly $425 puts for around $1.50-$1.60 (estimate based on yesterday's open of $425'ish and the $410 puts opening at $1.71, $15 out of the money) and been able to sell later in the day, when it dropped to $427.70, for $4-5. Did it hit $425 that day? No, but they still had value. Had he held to the test of $420, those puts would have been worth $5-6 on Friday. Not a bad return, if he played the $420 test in that way, right?
Since we don't know what he did, we must assume he did nothing, and simply take his directional call as such, a call of direction of movement (not a particular option play), as well as calling that $420 test. He was correct for a change, and I simply feel that it does no good to call him wrong, a clown, idiot, etc, in response to a message in regards to his call last week. It makes those who aren't constantly bashing the stock, making outrageous comments, etc, look like the trolls instead.
I realize we may get sick of his relentless "AAPL going down, 400 this week" type comments, but I will at least give credit where credit is due. Before the open last Monday, he stated that he was playing puts, and looking for a $420 test. It did test $420 by the end of the week, so in this case, he was correct on both direction, and magnitude of the week's move.
That's not to say it improves his accuracy by more than a marginal percentage (we may now be at about 3-4%?), but his weekly "420 test" commitment finally ended up being correct. Now, I know everybody will be right eventually, if they call for a stock to drop, but I'm just saying we should let him have his moment, before those who disagree with him begin to look like trolls, bashing people who were correct (for a change).
What are you doing about multiple entries submitted for the same closing price?
Did you have a different guess to put in? Omars submitted his 765 guess before you did, and if I get a response before the open, I will update it, if later, I will see what UPB wants to do with it.
So, just because the 50-day dropped below the 200-day, that means we're guaranteed to see a huge drop? By that logic, the "golden cross" we had at the end of September (SLV was around $33.50) should have meant a huge spike in price was coming. What happened there, you might ask? Well, it went up another a whole 50 cents before beginning to drop again. So if your "death cross" call is so much of a sure thing, how come the inverse didn't also hold true? Perhaps the $2 drop from the "death cross" to the recent low was as far as it goes this time, as well?
That $189.28 mark is Thursday's closing price. Something is probably up with their data provider, and it is erroneously reporting this value as an after-hours trade. Likewise, BIDU is reporting $87.82 (yesterday's open), AAPL is showing $442 (10 cents from yesterday's open), so the after hours numbers seem to be bouncing around between yesterday's open, and Thursday's close, at least for these few I've looked at.
water262 looks to be about your style?
$350 by March is officially, incorrect.
Well, I'm sorry if people have resorted to personal attacks of a demeaning nature, but as I was not one of them, I myself have nothing to apologize for. I have simply stated that I find some of your and mr green's comments about $350 coming this week, and such, amusing.
OK, but I prefer to talk about how AAPL has found strong support at the $420 range, and everybody calling for it to break has been wrong every time so far. I believe, if we do pull back another $20, that will be a great opportunity to pick up some cheap calls, again, and ride another wave back up, $40+. After earnings, who knows what will happen, but I don't see another revenue miss, given the somewhat low guidance, and feel like another big beat like Q2 of last year could propel the stock back over $500, and break out of this slump it has been in over the past several months.
But with all the jokes being posted, it's hard to keep things on topic.
Fine, I guess I can talk about the 460's on the way this week. $450+ on Tuesday, and touching $460 at the very least, by Friday. Sorry, I don't see the 300's coming this week.
Well, I had a post all typed up, but it got lost somehow. I put myself through a little bit of torture, reading all of "mr green"'s posts on the AAPL board, and have found that, for somebody making money on both sides of AAPL options, his short-term calls have hit an incredible 0% accuracy. Every time it's "$420's by Friday" or "$400 by end of the week", only to come up short, every single time, sometimes missing by $20-30. So, for an options expert on AAPL, how does he make any money with that precision call making ability?
Anyway, my few favorites, not necessarily for content, but also, how erratic his AAPL posts are.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=81972550 (Bullish? Wow!)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=82025486 (Change or heart?)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=83522601 (Yeah, definitely bearish now)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84580233 (Making up numbers to try to make himself look good? When did we hit $800?)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85009441 (Oh, hey, $420 by Friday? Guess he was wrong too.)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85356106 (I'm sensing a theme here, 420 might just be his favorite number)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85588150 (OK, 425 this time, sorry. Fast forward 6 days, price moved down a few dollars, as low as $425.36, but hey, look at that, $450+ on the 18th. Where did he post about those 425 puts, anyway?)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85641191 (I guess I wasn't imagining his fixation on 420 after all. )
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85356287 (Guess I wasn't looking hard enough for 420 in his posts before now.)
I know this will likely be deleted for being "off-topic" or even a "personal attack", but given how much he seems to be trying to pat himself on the back for a job well done, I wanted to see how well his guesses were working out. Just like the almighty who no longer graces us with his perpetual presence, his guesses have proven to be worse than just above everyone else on this board.
Again, as people have said many times now, AAPL was never at $720, $750, or $800 as you have mentioned in the past, so at least get your numbers right before claiming to have been correct on calling something at the price you provided.
So, they're dropping because they're expecting to make around $10 EPS for the next 3 quarters, but then they'll rise 50% because the expectation is for $15 for Q1 of next year, right? You do realize that Q1 includes holiday sales, which is why it is generally much higher than the rest of the year, right? Last year, after Q1 earnings were released, the share price went on to move from $420 or so, up to a high of $705, and they were then expecting the same, about $10 / quarter for Q2-Q4. So, no offense, but this whole $10 EPS argument doesn't seem to hold much weight.
Changing up the format on me, I see?
I'll start compiling all the guesses for you when I get home from work at 5:30 or so. Actually, scratch that, I won't be home until closer to 7 today. So, before I forget:
April 4, 2013 9:37AM
Hey JB, any contest for me to keep track of this week?
This week, AAPL to $500! Next week, first dip under $460, it'll be AAPL going to $440 this week, $420 next week, and $300's by the end of April. Funny how everybody was talking about it going back to $500 soon, or higher, and he was laughing at them all for being bullish and "loosing" all their money.
Way to go! Maybe next week we'll do a contest on BIDU (please guys?) and everybody will pick $90+ and cheer BIDU on so it runs up and the calls can make some money!
I like the fact that we didn't see as much of a pullback on these latest rejections of the 86.80 mark, and hope that, at least on the 10-min chart you gave, those moving averages turning up will offer a little push to get the ball rolling. I might not know what I'm talking about here, but I like the fact that there seems to be some hope, still.
If the contest had ended today, Funrocker would have nailed the price, spot-on at $452.73. Let's see if it closes near there for the 3rd straight day, for the win.
Would love to crack that $87 mark tomorrow, and push towards $90 for next week, so my $87.50 calls show a nice gain.
I know ryan g was trading binaries on Nadex, but I was wondering if anybody else does as well? I was on there today, sold 6 daily S&P 1555 contracts at $24. Bought them back for $4 at 3:56, and sold 10 daily S&P 1552 contracts at an average of $43.60. Ended up making back my losses on AAPL for the day, in about 5 minutes.
I know the risk/reward wasn't great, but it made my day a whole lot better when it worked out. So, I was just curious if anybody else used them, and had any advice on how best to trade binary options?
AAPL up $2.71 pre-market. Maybe that retest of the $460 mark is in the cards today, after all?
Hey JB, did you get my response to your e-mail, with my username?
Pfft, photoshopped!
Even with 8 contracts, most of my AAPL losses would be recovered if we hit $13+. Not that it was a huge loss on AAPL for most, but I'm only keeping about $2k in my account, and I ended up with a loss of about $400 on the day. That's ok though, I'll make it back. Just eating into my $800 week last week, a bit. Good luck on the 13's!