is charting.
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I agree on TELT
The TELT daily chart experienced a strong consolidation period following the spike in November. A close above the previous high at 1.80 on good volume would be a bullish signal.
LTUS Chart
The daily chart looks fantastic at the moment:
LTUS daily chart
The uptrend from December accelerated into a parabolic move in January, but the consolidation following that recent high has been very strong. It looks like it is preparing to continue higher. As long as it stays above $1.36, the chart will remain bullish.
I agree with your analysis on GY. There is a nice ascending triangle forming now, and a break well above current levels should result in a move up to at least 5.50.
GY daily chart
Gold Currency Index Update
The downtrend from last week following the essentially parabolic move up from the late October low remains in control, and the GCI is likely headed for uptrend support in the 26.20 area:
Prometheus Market Insight
I can confirm this as well. I was told by both Merle and Scott that all of the money for the first phase of drilling is already in the bank. They raised the funds during private placements this past Summer (at significantly higher levels, obviously).
It would be a completely different company. All existing SRSR shareholders would be given shares in the new company. I assume the idea would be to make it easier for a big player to come in and buy it out once the resources have been confirmed.
It means they are planning on spinning off the Nemegosenda property as a separate company. I assume they will do so once the drilling has been completed and analyzed (i.e. once the reserves have been moved into the P&P category).
The latest word from IR is that there will likely be a PR this week, and they are still targeting the end of the month to start the drilling program in zone D.
That's absurd. All of the volume that came in starting at around 1:20 PM were buys at the ask until the move topped out at $0.018. After that "pump" about 50k shares (a whopping $825 worth) were "dumped" at the bid. There's no evidence in the price action of a pump-and-dump in progress.
Keep in mind, historically, the stock has nearly always moved well before material announcements, so today's sudden influx of buying could be a sign that we are about to get news on either the drill program or the audit (or both). Let's see what the rest of the week brings...
The CCE.V chart is really starting to turn around, and these two stocks are very closely correlated in general. When we get even a little bit of buying pressure, we'll be back to the $0.025 level in the blink of an eye. And if the commodity sector rallies this Fall, we might just test those recent highs. We'll see...
It was probably just a late reported trade from that market buy order at the open. Pink sheet stocks don't trade after hours.
Ah, maybe we are more in agreement than not:
"You can use TA as a guideline in the pinks but I wouldn't trade on it."
Yes, that's essentially what I meant when I said TA doesn't "work" on pinks. It can certainly provide some rough, broad insight, but it doesn't provide reliable trading signals (statistically speaking).
Well, we'll have to agree to disagree. :) I've been analyzing charts every day for over 10 years now and I use a statistical analysis technique. Essentially my system calculates probabilities based upon technical indicators and chart patterns. Highly liquid vehicles on regulated exchanges can be reliably modeled, but little pink sheet stocks can not. They simply don't follow the rules (in general, of course--there are always exceptions) because they are so easy to manipulate.
All just my opinion, of course, and yours may be different, but I'm sure we're both doing just fine, so no worries. :)
Well, I've said it dozens of time before and I'll say it again: technical analysis has very limited usefulness when it comes to pink sheet and OTC stocks. TA requires two things in order to produce highly reliable results: 1) a highly liquid trading vehicle and 2) a regulated exchange. The pink sheets provide neither.
MM's have been walking the stock down on low volume for the past couple of months in order to cover their shorts from the spike in April. They exist to provide a market--true--but they're also interested in making money on their trades just like the rest of us, and they can do whatever they want on the pinks because there are no regulations to stop them.
I don't typically invest in pink sheet companies because there is so little information available. SRSR is a rare exception because there is so *much* information available. All one has to do is review the work that has already been done on this property (e.g. Gulf in the 1950's) to know what we have here. All Scott and company have to do is perform the drilling to get those reserves compliant, which is what they are focused on. We know for a *fact* there is at least $5B worth of niobium in zone D. There is data to suggest that there is several billion worth of REE's along with it. There is data to suggest the east zone has just as much niobium as zone D along with a comparable compliment of REE's.
There are no smoke and mirrors here. The exploration and drilling has already been done. You can let your emotions convince you of anything you want, but the facts have been clearly established here. Niobium is going to be in great demand moving forward, and SRSR very likely has upwards of $10B worth of it in the ground. Time will tell what happens with the stock as they take the necessary steps to monetize those resources...
"...they have several hundreds of billions in reserve."
That's the best laugh I've had all week. :) Please provide a link that makes you believe this to be true.
Niobium market prices
I found a good site for niobium (a.k.a. columbium) market prices:
http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/cb/cb.asp
As you can see, they remain strong.
Exactly. How many juniors with a $10M market cap are 4 months away from having $10B in proven resources? That'd be a very short list. The initial drill program is already paid for, so all we have to do is sit back and wait...
This is life on the pink sheets. If this price action has suprised or frustrated anyone, I would suggest that indicates a lack of understanding and would encourage those folks to learn more about how companies on unregulated exchanges are prone to trade.
And it's important to keep in mind that none of this is happening in a vacuum. What has been going on in the commodity sector in general this Summer? What has gold done? A quick review of Commerce Resources (CCE.V) chart shows that this stock is down from about $1 in May to around $0.45. There are many factors contributing to the stock price decline over the past few months. You can either view this decline as a crisis or an opportunity--the choice is yours. If you trust your own DD, the choice is obvious to me.
Good luck!
It looks like the MM's are finally covering the shares they shorted during the April run in substantive quantities. Could finally provide some support after the downtrend from the May high. We'll see...
Anyone can do what I do. All I do is pick up the phone and ask questions. :) When investing in pinks, it's critical to talk to the people in charge.
Spoke to Merle today
They are close to finalizing the drilling contract for zone D. It's definitely going to happen this season and then we'll have *proven* resources, probably close to $10B worth (counting the niobium, tantalum and REE's). Again, at a current market cap of about $10M, that's a proven-resource-to-cap ratio of 1000-to-1, and that doesn't even take into account the billions of niobium and REE's in the east zone.
The audit process continues and will probably be done by the end of August, but it will take as long as it takes. Then they'll get off of the pinks and onto an exchange were Canadian funds can start to participate. A PPS of $0.017 is a rare gift (if one has the patience and guts to step up). Anyone else buying? :)
Take care!
seabreezing: As always, thanks for posting detailed outlines of your phone conversations. And I'm considering abandoning the SRSR board for the most part, as the "moderation" over there has always struck me as inconsistent and totally subjective. I've had many posts containing information relevant to SRSR deleted for no apparent reason. I like the way the moderators are handling things here. :)
...and SRSR is just about to announce that they have a bunch of tantalum. Could be interesting...
There should be one coming over the next two or three sessions including the results of the tantalum analysis of the samples from the adit.
This would not be "old" news in any way, shape or form. Again, there has never been any tantalum analysis done on this property. If sample analysis indicates a large amount of tantalum, that would be a *huge* development and add substantially to the resource. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree and see what happens to the stock once the news is out sometime over the next week...
I absolutely disagree. No one has ever tested for tantalum on this property. If their analysis confirms the presence of a great deal of tantalum, that will be a very positive event. All MO, of course.
I just spoke to Mr. Goertz
They have finished analyzing samples that they gathered within the addit and one of the things they looked for was tantalum. They will be releasing those results within the next week, and the news is "very good." :)
Perhaps that development is driving the slight uptick we've experienced thus far this week...
I think it's important to keep in mind that the intrinsic value of this stock is *much* higher than $0.025, so valuation readjustments can happen at any time. With the release of those core analysis results earlier this month, we're now up to around $25B of more-or-less confirmed resources at Nemegosenda. That gives us a resource-to-MC ratio of around 1400-to-1. Even at this early stage as a junior explorer, that is ridiculously undervalued. IMO, a MC of at least $100M is currently justified, putting the stock in the $0.15 range, a 500% increase from here.
I've been continuing to accumulate over the past two months as the MM's have played their walkdown-and-cover game. For all those who believe in inefficient market theory, these prices have been an incredible opportunity.
The chart is ready to move higher
The daily chart is primed for a move much higher from here. Price action is holding support in the $0.025 area, the Bollinger bands have tightened up, MACD momentum has been moving sideways for nearly a month now, MACD histograms are sitting right at the 0 level, and RSI is holding just below the 50 level. Also, note that money flow has remained positive nearly the entire past two months. It would not take much buying pressure to flip all of these technicals into bullish mode.
The first step would be to close above the middle of the Bollinger bands at $0.028, and then a move above congestion resistance at $0.035 would really get things moving. Of course, the usual caveats with regard to pink sheet stocks and technicals apply, but this chart is sitting on the proverbial launch pad. If someone wanted to move it higher, now would be an opportune time... :)
The facts are pretty simple. We are in a secular commodity bull market. SRSR is sitting on at least $15B of niobium and tantalum with a market cap now of around $16M. That's a resources-to-market-cap ratio of about 1000-to-1.
Either you believe in efficient market theory or you believe markets are inherently inefficient. If you fall into the latter category, you must see opportunity in the current share price. I know I do. Where do you think the stock price will be after we get confirmation of the full $15B in resources? This confirmation is likely how far away, six months? Anyone who can't find the patience to wait 6 months for a 400% to 600% gain should spend more time in the casinos and less time in the financial markets. I'll stick to where the odds are in my favor.
I should also remind everyone that the MM's are likely still short from the spike in early April, and they don't like to cover at a loss. They continue to walk down the stock on low volume every chance they get. Again, you either view this is an opportunity or you do not.
Chart is ready to move higher
Here is the current daily chart:
Of course, all of the usual caveats regarding TA and its limited usefulness when applied to pink sheet stocks apply, but this chart has repaired itself nicely. Momentum leveled off about two weeks ago and momentum histograms continue to trend higher toward positive territory. Oscillators are holding just below the neutral level and--incredibly--money flow has remained positive throughout almost the entire correction from the highs in early May. A move above $0.035 would very likely take us back above $0.05. I continue to accumulate down at these levels.
How much value at Nemegosenda at current market prices?
Let's update Jim6103's calculations from April (see the post to which I am replying):
1) 376 million pounds Niobium @ $32/lb. = $12,032,000,000
2) Tantalum occuring at the same ratio as at Commerce Resources Fir Deposit: 5.6 lb. Niobium to 1 lb. Tantalum = 67,142,857 lbs of Tantalum @ $80/lb. = $5,371,000,000
3) Total estimated resource for Lake Nemegosenda = $17,404,000,000
And those niobium and tantalum prices are "heading higher" according to my industry expert... ;)
Niobium and tantalum quotes
My aunt is in the materials brokering business; she's essentially a middle (wo)man who connects materials suppliers with buyers. So I decided to ask her for current quotes on both niobium and tantalum. She said (yesterday) that niobium is currently selling for around $32/pound and tantalum is selling for around $80/pound and both are "heading higher." I'd completely forgotten that I had a great source for current market prices. :)
I agree, sea. Today's update is more proof that Scott and company genuinely care about the shareholders. I continue to be impressed with their professionalism and integrity.
As am I, Jim. Think they might hit our bids by the close today? ;)
I can confirm the following items from Micro's list:
1) Roads are a priority, even for the sake of further drilling and transportation to and from the drill sites.
2) Audit should be done and released next week.
3) Financing is on the table. Should be announced very shortly.
4) Zone E could be just as promising as Zone D. They are looking into this now.
I discussed all of these issues with Scott as well. This is easily the most professional management of any pink sheet company I've ever come across. They have the goods and they know it, so they're doing everything right. Patience is all we need as shareholders. All JMO, of course!