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They did just make a nice opportunity to buy low. Glad you were able to take advantage of it.
Meanwhile...ignorance is bliss...I guess...
I'm happily enjoying my profits while I wait to hear what "stinks".
Yeah...but we know AYR is just a pump and dump, right?
Anything can happen in this business. It sounds like you have a good money management system to keep you in the game.
Would that casino report Thursday before the open?
Congrats on your entry, that took some guts to buy when you did. It's paying off nicely though.
BTW... did you see AYR got 2 upgrades?
Feb-12-16 Upgrade FBR Capital Mkt Perform to Outperform $22 to $20
Feb-12-16 Upgrade DA Davidson Neutral to Buy $23 to $21
:)
Of course, we know that even when it opens green
they can take it down in a heartbeat if they want to.
But I'm guessing they're going to give it a little break...
give people time to think the worst is over
and THEN they'll pull the rug out.
There is a certain casino that is lagging
(in terms of regaining its pps before the January crash)
and it reports this week...
I think there should be a nice pop there.
:)
I hope to be able to pull out of here
to put my $$$ to work there.
I'm going to keep 200 shares in here though;
just because I think it will go back to the 20's at some point and the divvy is pretty sweet.
There's a lot of time until tomorrow's open. The way these futures look, I like your chances.
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Maybe if I'm lucky the market will hold up
and it will break through 18 tomorrow...
:)
So they beat...estimate I saw had eps in the 45¢ range...
"Key Financial Metrics
Net income was $50.6 million, or $0.63 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter, and $121.7 million, or $1.50 per diluted common share, for the full year
Adjusted net income was $54.3 million, or $0.67 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter, and $142.3 million, or $1.75 per diluted common share, for the full year
Adjusted EBITDA was $211.0 million for the fourth quarter and $832.1 million for the full year
Record cash flow from operations of $526.3 million in 2015, up 14.7%
Record gains from sales of flight equipment of $58.0 million in 2015
Record cash ROE of 15.6% in 2015; 9.1% net cash interest margin"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aircastle-announces-fourth-quarter-full-123000840.html
"conference call on Thursday, February 11, 2016 at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time. All interested parties are welcome to participate on the live call. The conference call can be accessed by dialing (888) 438-5525 (from within the U.S. and Canada) or (719) 325-2464 (from outside of the U.S. and Canada) ten minutes prior to the scheduled start and referencing the passcode "1343968"."
We'll see what good it does amid the morning's panic.
*sigh*
I had to dump some other stuff to raise the cash to get my avg down here...
and I want that $$$ back out.
There is resistance around 17
but I'm hoping it can break through that and at least make it back to the 18$ level.
My worry is that Mr. Market is being so damned irrational right now
that it won't even matter if they surprise...
or it will get a brief pop and sell off immediately.
Whatever...
I do not mind holding some long term...
in fact I WANT to keep some long term as I believe they are undervalued + there is the divvy
which is not too shabby.
Just don't want to be holding as much as I am right now...
I tend to spread myself a little thin...
there are a whole lotta other stocks out there...lol...
TOO MANY STOCKS TOO LITTLE MONEY
:)
Isn't this just like playing poker?
All you can do is try to go with the odds, make the best hand you can....
and then wait and see what comes your way...lol...
Lets see what the morning brings!
That's a good entry. You should come out of this trade very well. Do you have a price target in mind?
I managed to get my avg down to 15.90
we'll see what happens
I'm just a dipstick neanderthal, BuTT....I totally agree with everything you've said. Big money is in control, and they can't make money unless the market is moving.
I don't quite understand why steel is down, unless it's from international competition? I do feel for y'all. Everything goes in cycles.
Warning tinfoil hat theory ahead :)
Congrats on the aluminum bounce!
I work in a mold making factory. If the economy was going to tank, we wouldn't be getting orders for tooling to make future products.
We make quite a few molds for the airline industry, and they haven't been slowing down.
No kidding...
I am enjoying a nice rebound in aluminum today...
got in there at the right time.
Now if steel could get some love...
I'm still underwater there...
:(
Hi there! That's a shame.
It's a tough situation when you want something to happen, and somebody is pissing on the fire. I've read enough of your posts to know you do the work and DD to back up your claims.
Some times, the truth hurts.
Meanwhile...
LoL...Thanks!
Never mind james...he knows...just a disgruntled "investor" from a certain pump and dump...
Obviously he believes in blaming the messenger...
:)
Its sad that many people get sucked in by "sure thing" STORIES
and end up losing their shirt...and then some!
Something that I happened to think of. This lady is one of the brightest detectives on the planet. If there was something wrong with AYR? I'm sure she would take great pleasure in finding it.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=144835
Thank you. I hope you have a great day.
I will . Good day to you
If you find anything, please let us know.
How about the update fins. Something stinks here and I just haven't put my finger on it yet. But I will keep looking
Where are the fins.
Why do you feel that way?
This is a pump and dump scam
It is obvious and no where to go but down . scam from the beginning
Considering most everything is in free fall, I'm not too surprised...
I'm hope we get at least a temporary bounce this week.
I might just dump some stuff and go more cash for awhile if we get a bounce.
No point in arguing with Mr. Market.
What's that saying about how the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?
I'm not worried about solvency, but I still find it annoying to watch my portfolio bleeding every day!
Might as well get some money on the sidelines...
The catalyst I was hoping for here was a good next report
and I don't think that happens until in February
so that should give things time to settle down a little.
:)
I wonder if we'll go back and retest 19ish?
Hi! When you messaged me recently, I knew I knew you from somewhere...
I just could not place where
:)
I'm thinking AYR could be getting ready to bounce...
Perhaps people are selling because of their last earrings
without really considering the why?
"I'd now like to discuss Aircastle's performance during the third quarter of 2015, our perspectives on the business environment and what it means for our Company and finally our longer-term outlook. Mike will then cover Aircastle's financial results and then we'll open it up to Q&A. The impairments I just discussed notwithstanding, our financial results were quite good. During Q3, we earned $52 million or $0.64 per share if we exclude the MAS repossession and the fleet review charges.
Our cash ROE has remained high and came in at 14.5% on a 12-month trailing basis. These financial results were driven by strong operating cash flows and performance, including 99.9% fleet utilization. We've been derisking our business for lease management as well as to combine the effects of our investments in sales. To that end, we've pushed out the average remaining lease term of our fleet to nearly six years, further contributing to stability of our revenues."
This came from the transcript
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-ayr-earnings-conference-194524115.html
But I read another place too where they broke things down and suggested that the disappointing earnings were because of one time items...
"Despite an overall improvement in operating (EBIT) margins, the company’s earnings fell. EBIT margins went from 49.30% to 51.96%. The decline in earnings appears to be largely because of one-time items. Pretax margins declined from 12.22% to -6.05%"
http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/aircastle-ltd-earnings-analysis-q3-2015-by-the-numbers/
I am going to be watching for it to establish a bottom and try to get back in before they report again...
I ultimately felt disappointed with MTSN...
I've made good money there, and I had sold 1/2 this past spring on their spike.
But just when I was thinking of putting more money back into that
they announced a buy out...
Even though I made money, I still feel cheated...lol...
There seems to be some backlash over the deal, so I'm holding my shares to see what happens
:)
LOL - glad to hear you are doing well. I like this AYR pick you made too.
MTSN is a monster, nice pickup!
Thanks!
Every once in awhile I pick a winner
:)
As I always say...
THE BEST STOCKS ARE THE ONES WITH FEW "FOLLOWERS"!
I had a nice home run with MTSN recently...
Celebrate your victories and LEARN from your defeats!
I learn a LOT...
:)
Aircastle Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full Year 2014 Results
You have a good eye. I agree that the news sounds positive. I would think they could trade in the debt they have for a lower interest rate.
My main conern now is the airline industry as a whole. I think oil is about to turn back up and the airlines will suffer as a result. That could be the good entry point, as I don't think oil is bottomed out, just due for a big bounce.
Not sure though? The lower fuel cost recently, could give them a reason to beat estimates, as the lower fuel probably wasn't priced in.
Good luck on your entry!
I think this is good...
I will definitely be watching for a good entry point.
:)
GLTY!
Good morning, I sold my AYR shares a while ago. At this time, I'm not looking to get back in. It looks like they may be trying to re-structure their debt with more favorable terms on the Moody's upgrade?
Moody's upgrades Aircastle's senior unsecured debt rating to Ba2, changes outlook to positive
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Aircastles-senior-unsecured-debt-rating-to-Ba2-changes--PR_316161?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZTQyX1NCX1JhdGluZyBOZXdzX0FsbF9Fbmc%3d~20150109_PR_316161
Aircastle Announces Proposed Offering of $400 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of Senior Notes
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aircastle-announces-proposed-offering-400-122600349.html
Are you still in?
I got out, when I wanted cash for something else...
wish I had reloaded when it had the big drop to 16
:(
Oh well...they made it to the 20's level...
the 18's/19's should be support now...
Maybe I'll get back in.
Not thrilled about this...
"1. Common shares repurchased by the Company pursuant to an irrevocable election made by the reporting person under the Amended and Restated Aircastle Limited 2005 Equity and Incentive Plan (the "Plan"), with proceeds of such repurchase being paid to the reporting person for the application by the reporting person to the reporting person's federal tax obligations arising in connection with vesting, on January 1, 2015, of 4,697 common shares granted under the Plan.
2. The repurchase price of $21.37 paid by the Company was the closing price on December 31, 2014, the last trading day preceeding the date the sale was reported, as provided in the Plan"
Even though its the company purchasing them, and they aren't being sold on the open market,
its still insider selling...
AYR reported EPS 0.68 vs consensus 0.32 revenues of $192 vs EST $172.56 YR/YR REV 8.7%. Giddy up! $$
So far, so good...
I would like to see this move up to the next level.
That looks like the 20-26 range, to me.
Perhaps if the market keeps chugging along
we will make it there in 2014?
Happy New Year!
:)
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