Aircastle Limited (AYR)

[**D*A**]

Hope things in your neck of the Northwoods are looking better these days. Happy Thanksgiving.

Things are pretty tough in my neck of the Northwoods...
the steel industry has been crushed recently...
Lots of steelworkers laid off...
we lost the drugstore and the grocery store in my town.
Partly because we got Family Dollar and Dollar General in the last few years.
And a Walmart 30 miles away instead of 60.
Its hard for small family owned businesses to compete with the buying power of chains...
Anyway... the steel industry has been through this before.
Things will turn ...eventually... probably...
:)

[**D*A**]

They did just make a nice opportunity to buy low. Glad you were able to take advantage of it.

[diannedawn]

Meanwhile...ignorance is bliss...I guess...
I'm happily enjoying my profits while I wait to hear what "stinks".

[diannedawn]

Yeah...but we know AYR is just a pump and dump, right?

This is a pump and dump scam
It is obvious and no where to go but down . scam from the beginning

How about the update fins. Something stinks here and I just haven't put my finger on it yet. But I will keep looking

OH DEAR!!!
I sure hope he gets back to us with what stinks...
I'm dying to know...
:)

[**D*A**]

Nailed it!

There is a certain casino that is lagging
(in terms of regaining its pps before the January crash)
and it reports this week...
I think there should be a nice pop there.
:)

I hope to be able to pull out of here
to put my $$$ to work there.
I'm going to keep 200 shares in here though;
just because I think it will go back to the 20's at some point and the divvy is pretty sweet.

FWIW? I'm trading that casino stock today. So far, so good. Thanks for the tip. GOOD LUCK!!

[diannedawn]

Yup

Thursday before the open?

:)

[**D*A**]

Anything can happen in this business. It sounds like you have a good money management system to keep you in the game.

Would that casino report Thursday before the open?

Congrats on your entry, that took some guts to buy when you did. It's paying off nicely though.

[diannedawn]

BTW... did you see AYR got 2 upgrades?

Feb-12-16 Upgrade FBR Capital Mkt Perform to Outperform $22 to $20
Feb-12-16 Upgrade DA Davidson Neutral to Buy $23 to $21

:)

[diannedawn]

Of course, we know that even when it opens green
they can take it down in a heartbeat if they want to.
But I'm guessing they're going to give it a little break...
give people time to think the worst is over
and THEN they'll pull the rug out.

There is a certain casino that is lagging
(in terms of regaining its pps before the January crash)
and it reports this week...
I think there should be a nice pop there.
:)

I hope to be able to pull out of here
to put my $$$ to work there.
I'm going to keep 200 shares in here though;
just because I think it will go back to the 20's at some point and the divvy is pretty sweet.

[**D*A**]

There's a lot of time until tomorrow's open. The way these futures look, I like your chances.

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

[diannedawn]

Maybe if I'm lucky the market will hold up
and it will break through 18 tomorrow...
:)

[**D*A**]

Congrats!

[diannedawn]

So they beat...estimate I saw had eps in the 45¢ range...

"Key Financial Metrics

Net income was $50.6 million, or $0.63 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter, and $121.7 million, or $1.50 per diluted common share, for the full year
Adjusted net income was $54.3 million, or $0.67 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter, and $142.3 million, or $1.75 per diluted common share, for the full year
Adjusted EBITDA was $211.0 million for the fourth quarter and $832.1 million for the full year
Record cash flow from operations of $526.3 million in 2015, up 14.7%
Record gains from sales of flight equipment of $58.0 million in 2015
Record cash ROE of 15.6% in 2015; 9.1% net cash interest margin"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aircastle-announces-fourth-quarter-full-123000840.html

"conference call on Thursday, February 11, 2016 at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time. All interested parties are welcome to participate on the live call. The conference call can be accessed by dialing [phone] (from within the U.S. and Canada) or [phone] (from outside of the U.S. and Canada) ten minutes prior to the scheduled start and referencing the passcode "1343968"."

We'll see what good it does amid the morning's panic.
*sigh*

[diannedawn]

I had to dump some other stuff to raise the cash to get my avg down here...
and I want that $$$ back out.
There is resistance around 17
but I'm hoping it can break through that and at least make it back to the 18$ level.
My worry is that Mr. Market is being so damned irrational right now
that it won't even matter if they surprise...
or it will get a brief pop and sell off immediately.

Whatever...
I do not mind holding some long term...
in fact I WANT to keep some long term as I believe they are undervalued + there is the divvy
which is not too shabby.

Just don't want to be holding as much as I am right now...

I tend to spread myself a little thin...
there are a whole lotta other stocks out there...lol...

TOO MANY STOCKS TOO LITTLE MONEY
:)

Isn't this just like playing poker?
All you can do is try to go with the odds, make the best hand you can....
and then wait and see what comes your way...lol...

Lets see what the morning brings!

[**D*A**]

That's a good entry. You should come out of this trade very well. Do you have a price target in mind?

[diannedawn]

I managed to get my avg down to 15.90
we'll see what happens

[**D*A**]

AYR daily

[**D*A**]

$DJUSAR daily

[**D*A**]

I'm just a dipstick neanderthal, BuTT....I totally agree with everything you've said. Big money is in control, and they can't make money unless the market is moving.


I don't quite understand why steel is down, unless it's from international competition? I do feel for y'all. Everything goes in cycles.

[diannedawn]

Warning tinfoil hat theory ahead :)

If the economy was going to tank, we wouldn't be getting orders for tooling to make future products.

I really believe that this whole sell off and the accompanying yapping about a recession etc.
was manufactured on wall street to create a better environment for trading...
Its hard to get much out of sideways trading market...
BUT if you create big drops you can make a boodle shorting it down
and then make another boodle as it goes up.
I think there are a lot of groups that got addicted to the high volatility and wide swings...
and when the market isn't cooperating they find a reason
...any reason...
to manufacture those wide swings and volatility.

Who loses in this scenario?
Those that "invested"...
they get scared out and sell for a loss...
and probably do not buy back at the bottom...
Because how is the little guy suppose to know when that is?

Someone wins and someone loses in this game...
The money is flowing out of hard working people's pockets and pensions
and into the pockets of the wall street fat cats...
They laugh all the way to the bank...

Things are pretty tough in my neck of the Northwoods...
the steel industry has been crushed recently...
Lots of steelworkers laid off...
we lost the drugstore and the grocery store in my town.
Partly because we got Family Dollar and Dollar General in the last few years.
And a Walmart 30 miles away instead of 60.
Its hard for small family owned businesses to compete with the buying power of chains...
Anyway... the steel industry has been through this before.
Things will turn ...eventually... probably...
:)

Meanwhile, I try to keep a healthy dose of skepticism when I listen to the talking heads...
Things are rarely as BAD as they say, or as GOOD as they say!

I still remember as a newbie investor listening to the BS spewed
back in 2008-9...
How we were going to have NATIONALIZE THE BANKS!
and how it WAS NOT GOING TO BE A V-SHAPED RECOVERY!
We were allegedly going to be stuck like Japan was for years...

Ya ...sure ...Whatever...
:)

[**D*A**]

Congrats on the aluminum bounce!

I work in a mold making factory. If the economy was going to tank, we wouldn't be getting orders for tooling to make future products.

We make quite a few molds for the airline industry, and they haven't been slowing down.

[diannedawn]

No kidding...
I am enjoying a nice rebound in aluminum today...
got in there at the right time.
Now if steel could get some love...
I'm still underwater there...
:(

[**D*A**]

Some of the best ops, are the drops.

AYR monthly

[**D*A**]

Hi there! That's a shame.

It's a tough situation when you want something to happen, and somebody is pissing on the fire. I've read enough of your posts to know you do the work and DD to back up your claims.

Some times, the truth hurts.

[diannedawn]

Meanwhile...

The catalyst I was hoping for here was a good next report
and I don't think that happens until in February

They are to report on Feb 11...
so I guess we'll see what shakes out.

I can't believe this fell to prices not seen since 10/14!
And that because of "lower oil" or "china woes"?
LOL...

Last year we saw this...
and approximately 10% - $2 pps spike.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aircastle-beats-street-4q-forecasts-133353170.html

TIC TOC
:)

[diannedawn]

LoL...Thanks!

Never mind james...he knows...just a disgruntled "investor" from a certain pump and dump...
Obviously he believes in blaming the messenger...
:)

Its sad that many people get sucked in by "sure thing" STORIES
and end up losing their shirt...and then some!

[**D*A**]

Something that I happened to think of. This lady is one of the brightest detectives on the planet. If there was something wrong with AYR? I'm sure she would take great pleasure in finding it.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=144835

[**D*A**]

Thank you. I hope you have a great day.

[jamesf402]

I will . Good day to you

[**D*A**]

If you find anything, please let us know.

[jamesf402]

How about the update fins. Something stinks here and I just haven't put my finger on it yet. But I will keep looking

[**D*A**]

will these work?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ayr

[jamesf402]

Where are the fins.

[**D*A**]

Why do you feel that way?

[jamesf402]

This is a pump and dump scam
It is obvious and no where to go but down . scam from the beginning

[diannedawn]

Considering most everything is in free fall, I'm not too surprised...
I'm hope we get at least a temporary bounce this week.
I might just dump some stuff and go more cash for awhile if we get a bounce.
No point in arguing with Mr. Market.
What's that saying about how the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?
I'm not worried about solvency, but I still find it annoying to watch my portfolio bleeding every day!
Might as well get some money on the sidelines...

The catalyst I was hoping for here was a good next report
and I don't think that happens until in February
so that should give things time to settle down a little.

[**D*A**]

Wow! I was surprised to see $19's get tested again. I'm really surprised to see the $18's get hit.

[diannedawn]

:)
I wonder if we'll go back and retest 19ish?

[**D*A**]

You were right again. nice call!

I'm thinking AYR could be getting ready to bounce...

[**D*A**]

GM! and thank you for the heads up. I also like the way the insiders keep on buying.

Sorry about MTSN, I understand the frustration. Glad you were smart enough to keep half your shares.

[diannedawn]

Hi! When you messaged me recently, I knew I knew you from somewhere...
I just could not place where
:)
I'm thinking AYR could be getting ready to bounce...

Perhaps people are selling because of their last earrings
without really considering the why?

"I'd now like to discuss Aircastle's performance during the third quarter of 2015, our perspectives on the business environment and what it means for our Company and finally our longer-term outlook. Mike will then cover Aircastle's financial results and then we'll open it up to Q&A. The impairments I just discussed notwithstanding, our financial results were quite good. During Q3, we earned $52 million or $0.64 per share if we exclude the MAS repossession and the fleet review charges.

Our cash ROE has remained high and came in at 14.5% on a 12-month trailing basis. These financial results were driven by strong operating cash flows and performance, including 99.9% fleet utilization. We've been derisking our business for lease management as well as to combine the effects of our investments in sales. To that end, we've pushed out the average remaining lease term of our fleet to nearly six years, further contributing to stability of our revenues."
This came from the transcript
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-ayr-earnings-conference-194524115.html

But I read another place too where they broke things down and suggested that the disappointing earnings were because of one time items...
"Despite an overall improvement in operating (EBIT) margins, the company’s earnings fell. EBIT margins went from 49.30% to 51.96%. The decline in earnings appears to be largely because of one-time items. Pretax margins declined from 12.22% to -6.05%"
http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/aircastle-ltd-earnings-analysis-q3-2015-by-the-numbers/

I am going to be watching for it to establish a bottom and try to get back in before they report again...

I ultimately felt disappointed with MTSN...
I've made good money there, and I had sold 1/2 this past spring on their spike.
But just when I was thinking of putting more money back into that
they announced a buy out...
Even though I made money, I still feel cheated...lol...
There seems to be some backlash over the deal, so I'm holding my shares to see what happens
:)

[**D*A**]

LOL - glad to hear you are doing well. I like this AYR pick you made too.


MTSN is a monster, nice pickup!

[diannedawn]

Thanks!
Every once in awhile I pick a winner
:)

As I always say...
THE BEST STOCKS ARE THE ONES WITH FEW "FOLLOWERS"!

I had a nice home run with MTSN recently...

Celebrate your victories and LEARN from your defeats!
I learn a LOT...
:)

[UserAlias1]

Aircastle Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full Year 2014 Results

Last update: 19/02/2015 7:30:14 am


Aircastle Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Results

Board Declares First Quarter 2015 Dividend of $0.22 per Common Share

PR Newswire

STAMFORD, Conn., Feb. 19, 2015

STAMFORD, Conn., Feb. 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

Key Financial Metrics
-- Total revenues were $238.3 million for the fourth quarter and $818.6
million for the full year, up 24% and 16% year over year, respectively

-- Net income was $72.8 million, or $0.90 per diluted common share for the
fourth quarter, and $100.8 million, or $1.25 per diluted common share,
for the full year

-- Adjusted net income was $80.1 million, or $0.99 per diluted common share
for the fourth quarter, and $167.6 million, or $2.07 per diluted common
share, for the full year

-- Adjusted EBITDA was $233.2 million for the fourth quarter and $792.3
million for the full year, up 19% and 10% year over year, respectively

-- Full year 2014 cash ROE was 11.7% and net cash interest margin was 10.0%

Highlights
-- Upgraded our portfolio during 2014 through $1.8 billion in acquisitions
and the sale of 49 aircraft for $833 million

-- Reduced our average interest cost in 2014 to 4.69% from 5.37% the prior
year

-- 35th consecutive quarterly dividend declared by Aircastle's Board of
Directors

-- Grew our joint venture with Ontario Teachers' to $545 million in assets
at year end

Aircastle Limited (the "Company" or "Aircastle") (NYSE: AYR) reported fourth quarter 2014 net income of $72.8 million, or $0.90 per diluted common share and adjusted net income of $80.1 million, or $0.99 per diluted common share. Net income for the year ended December 31, 2014 was $100.8 million, or $1.25 per diluted common share, and adjusted net income was $167.6 million, or $2.07 per diluted common share. The fourth quarter results included total revenues of $238.3 million, an increase of 24%, versus $192.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. For the full year 2014, total revenues were $818.6 million, up 16% versus $708.6 million in 2013.

Commenting on the results, Ron Wainshal, Aircastle's CEO, stated "2014 was a year full of significant activity in which we solidified Aircastle's position as the leading value investor in the aircraft leasing industry. Aircastle's strategy is differentiated from that of our competitors, and we saw the merits of this approach in the great progress we made over the past year in growing our business and improving our financial metrics while simultaneously improving the quality of our portfolio despite a very competitive and fluid business environment."

Mr. Wainshal continued, "We plan to continue demonstrating the competitive advantages of our leading position as a value investor, supported by our world-class team, our flexible capital structure and our key long term shareholders. We are gratified and energized by the steady progress we are making. We are intent on driving further improvements in our financial performance, and I believe achieving an investment grade credit rating will bring us closer to realizing the company's full potential."

Financial Results
(in thousands, except share Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
data) December 31, December 31,
-------------------- ---------------------
2013 2014 2013 2014
--------- --------- ---------- ---------

Total Revenues $ 191,988 $ 238,257 $ 708,645 $ 818,602

Adjusted EBITDA $ 195,965 $ 233,200 $ 717,209 $ 792,283

Net income $ 48,421 $ 72,764 $ 29,781 $ 100,828
Per common share -
Diluted $ 0.60 $ 0.90 $ 0.40 $ 1.25

Adjusted net income $ 54,899 $ 80,145 $ 59,260 $ 167,642
Per common share -
Diluted $ 0.68 $ 0.99 $ 0.80 $ 2.07


Fourth Quarter Results

Total revenues for the fourth quarter were $238.3 million, an increase of $46.3 million, or 24% from the previous year, driven by higher maintenance revenues of $27.6 million reflecting the early return of several aircraft on lease with Russia-based airlines and higher lease rentals of $8.9 million.

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $233.2 million, up $37.2 million, or 19% from the fourth quarter of 2013, due primarily to higher total revenues, excluding amortization of net lease discounts and incentives, of $38.3 million.

Adjusted net income for the quarter was $80.1 million, up $25.2 million or 46%, year over year. The increase was due primarily to higher total revenues of $46.3 million partially offset by higher non-cash impairment charges of $22.0 million primarily related to the early return and exit of aircraft.

Full Year Results

Total revenues for 2014 were $818.6 million, an increase of $110.0 million, up 16% from the previous year. The increase reflects higher lease rental and finance lease revenue of $64.5 million, higher maintenance revenue of $19.7 million and lower amortization of lease premiums, discounts and lease incentive amortization of $26.2 million.

Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $792.3 million, up $75.1 million or 10% versus 2013, reflecting higher total revenues excluding amortization of net lease discounts and lease incentives of $83.7 million, partially offset by lower gains from the sale of flight equipment of $14.1 million.

Adjusted net income for the full year was $167.6 million compared to $59.3 million in 2013, an increase of $108.4 million. Higher total revenues of $110.0 million and lower adjusted operating expenses of $15.4 million were partially offset by lower gains from the sale of flight equipment of $14.1 million.

Aviation Assets

During 2014, we acquired 35 aircraft for $1.8 billion, including 21 aircraft for $749.2 million during the fourth quarter. Most of our 2014 acquisitions by value were aircraft less than five years old that are on long term leases with relatively strong operators. Additionally, we also acquired $467.4 million in mid-aged narrow-body aircraft, including twelve aircraft through a purchase and lease-back transaction with a major European flag carrier. In many cases, we believe we were successful in winning business due to our ability to move quickly and reliably given our cash reserves and team strengths.

During 2014, we sold 49 aircraft for net proceeds of $833.0 million, resulting in a pre-tax impact of $40.2 million. Three of these aircraft were sold to our joint venture with Ontario Teachers', which grew to $545 million in total assets at year end 2014. We continue to use the joint venture to pursue larger transactions and help us manage exposure concentrations.

The other 46 sold aircraft had an average age of 19 years and consisted of a mix of "exit" and "opportunistic" sales. Exit sales aircraft are generally nearing the end of their economic lives and are, in most cases, older technology models. Consistent with our strategy to reduce exposure to the air cargo market, our sales in this category include five freighter aircraft. Opportunistic sales entail situations where we sought to capture strong market demand and have enabled us to realize gains.

Gain (Loss)
Number Lease on Sale of
of Maintenance Incentive Flight Pre-tax
($ in thousands) Aircraft Revenue Revenue Equipment Impairment Impact
-------- ------------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ----------

Opportunistic
sales 28 $ 3,171 $ -- $ 38,363 $ -- $ 41,534
Exit Sales 19 56,129 776 (15,217) (24,940) 16,748
Total Sales 47 59,300 776 23,146 (24,940) 58,282
Freighters Held
for Sale(1) 2 9,137 $ 3,626 -- (30,877) (18,114)
-------- ------------- ------- ----------- ------------ ----------
Total 49 $ 68,437 $ 4,402 $ 23,146 $ (55,817) $ 40,168
======== === ======== ======= ======= ======== ======


1 Includes two 747-400 converted freighter aircraft which were designated for
sale. One of these aircraft was sold in January, 2015 while the other is
under a consignment contract and is in the process of being parted out.


Given the sharp deterioration of business conditions and a significantly weakened home currency since the start of the fourth quarter, we reduced our passenger aircraft exposure to Russia-based airlines from ten to three aircraft today. One of these aircraft was sold during the fourth quarter for a modest profit and another has been leased. We are in the process of remarketing the other aircraft, which we expect to have on lease by the end of the second quarter of 2015.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

February 19, 2015 07:30 ET (12:30 GMT)

[**D*A**]

You have a good eye. I agree that the news sounds positive. I would think they could trade in the debt they have for a lower interest rate.

My main conern now is the airline industry as a whole. I think oil is about to turn back up and the airlines will suffer as a result. That could be the good entry point, as I don't think oil is bottomed out, just due for a big bounce.

Not sure though? The lower fuel cost recently, could give them a reason to beat estimates, as the lower fuel probably wasn't priced in.

Good luck on your entry!

[diannedawn]

I think this is good...
I will definitely be watching for a good entry point.

:)

GLTY!

[**D*A**]

Good morning, I sold my AYR shares a while ago. At this time, I'm not looking to get back in. It looks like they may be trying to re-structure their debt with more favorable terms on the Moody's upgrade?

Moody's upgrades Aircastle's senior unsecured debt rating to Ba2, changes outlook to positive

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Aircastles-senior-unsecured-debt-rating-to-Ba2-changes--PR_316161?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZTQyX1NCX1JhdGluZyBOZXdzX0FsbF9Fbmc%3d~20150109_PR_316161

Aircastle Announces Proposed Offering of $400 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of Senior Notes

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aircastle-announces-proposed-offering-400-122600349.html

[diannedawn]

Are you still in?
I got out, when I wanted cash for something else...
wish I had reloaded when it had the big drop to 16
:(

Oh well...they made it to the 20's level...
the 18's/19's should be support now...
Maybe I'll get back in.

Not thrilled about this...
"1. Common shares repurchased by the Company pursuant to an irrevocable election made by the reporting person under the Amended and Restated Aircastle Limited 2005 Equity and Incentive Plan (the "Plan"), with proceeds of such repurchase being paid to the reporting person for the application by the reporting person to the reporting person's federal tax obligations arising in connection with vesting, on January 1, 2015, of 4,697 common shares granted under the Plan.
2. The repurchase price of $21.37 paid by the Company was the closing price on December 31, 2014, the last trading day preceeding the date the sale was reported, as provided in the Plan"

Even though its the company purchasing them, and they aren't being sold on the open market,
its still insider selling...

[Romebaby22]

AYR reported EPS 0.68 vs consensus 0.32 revenues of $192 vs EST $172.56 YR/YR REV 8.7%. Giddy up! $$

[diannedawn]

So far, so good...

I would like to see this move up to the next level.
That looks like the 20-26 range, to me.

Perhaps if the market keeps chugging along
we will make it there in 2014?

Happy New Year!
:)