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Hey devron, here is a link that should answer your question:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=671618
I think X_Dev can be used for short term trades but I would suggest that you set up X_Dev to catch the extreme low, and decrease the upper band to a position that is realistic for the short term play. Plus, on shorter term plays I believe that market sentiment is also important. Go with the trend and be ready to jump out if sentiment changes.
I am hoping that one day we will be able to analyize intra-day data.
Jim
jimbob...i'm into positional trading (trading once every 3 days or so). i really want to get x-dev, but i'd like to know if it can be tweaked for short-term trading. thanx :0)
Thanks devron, I am hanging my first $1 bill on the mantel. I think it's time for another drop in the markets. I have hedged my long positions and set stop losses, I think we are going to be in for an interesting January effect. I have a hunch that the January effect is going to be as strong as the Santa Claus rally.
JimBob
jimbob, i would like to be the first visitor to post on this board. good...done. now, thanx for the prompt reply to my email. i've been using aim since july on the sp500 and results have been slow and grinding. i like the idea of playing with the etf's to track the broader markets as i don't trust investing in individual companies. i sent the email to get a feel for what x-dev might be able to offer in terms of performance enhancements over aim. its funny, when i heard of aim and read the latest edition of the book i thought aim was the greatest thing since sliced bread. now all i want to do is see if there is a better way to go. go figure ;).
Here is recent pick I am playing, with X_Dev and fundamental research included. http://www.vestorAnalytics.com
AVAN Avant Immunotherapeutics Inc (NASDAQ NM)
Rating: Speculative Short/Long Term Buy
Date of Recommendation: 11/26/2002
Price: $1.20
SYNOPSIS:
AVAN is definitively a very interesting pick with a great potential upside for the short and long term.
Speculation on War with Iraq and bioterrorism are excellent arguments to build momentum.
The core business of the company is the research, production and commercialization of vaccines for the prevention of diseases and among them of particular note those related to protection of military personnel and civilians against bacterial and viral agents used in biowarfare or terrorist activities.
Under the current political environment the demand for such products is definitively poised to get a boost.
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2Fse...
"CONGRESS RECENTLY approved an 18% increase in military R&D, to $58.8 billion for the current fiscal year — more money, after accounting for inflation, than the Pentagon ever spent on research during the Cold War. Early next year, the National Institutes of Health is in line for a similar-size boost to around $26 billion, partly to examine biological-warfare defenses. In all, the federal government will likely spend about $115 billion on R&D in the year ending Sept. 30, far more than Japan and the 15 European Union governments will spend collectively."
FINANCIALS:
The company has no debt and a cash position of
$31.7M.
Particularly of note is the financial progression of the revenues with a sequential increase between the last 2 qtrs of 610%
Sept 30 2002 / Jun 30 2002 / Mar 31, 2002
$4,560,400 / $642,700 / $690,900
and Net Loss decreased 95%
Sept 30 2002 / Jun 30 2002 / Mar 31, 2002
($276,200) / ($5,164,300) / ($4,913,600)
http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/a/avan.html
TA (chart):
From a technical analysis perspective the chart pattern (daily time frame) shows a perfect bullish trend with the price currently close to the base of the channel.
Today the stock crossed over and closed above EMAs (13,20 & 50) on a volume almost double than average.
Currently the stock is oversold: RSI(14)= 25 and stochastics coming out of the 20s area after a positive cross.
FIRMS THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM THE NEW BATTLE AGAINST BIOTERRORISM:
MOVING TARGETS
Avant Immunotherapeutics (Nasdaq: AVAN) CEO Dr. Una Ryan said as much on October 23 at a hearing on biological warfare defense vaccine research-and-development programs in front of the House Committee on Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations.
Dr. Ryan told the committee of some of the difficulties in combating a bioterrorist attack, such as distributing drug treatments to a large exposed population and the relative ease with which an attacker can create mutant drug-resistant strains. "In addition to the same logistical problems," she said, "the antidote approach must contend with the fact that the organism that causes anthrax, Bacillus anthracis, is in itself not the cause of illness or death, but rather the producer of toxins that ultimately kill its host or rapidly trigger downstream havoc in the body."
Avant is developing vaccines designed, as Dr. Ryan put it, to "prevent the establishment of virulence and subsequent toxin production if the bacteria were to be encountered through any of the known routes: inhalation, ingestion, or skin contact."
http://www.redherring.com/insider/2001/1026/240020424.html
Review of Additional Events During last Quarter
Bioterrorism Vaccines
In early July, AVANT was awarded a Phase I Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grant by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to support the development of the company's single oral-dose bacterial vectors to immunize people against anthrax. The proposed bacterial vectors are derived from AVANT's cholera and typhoid fever vaccines currently in clinical development. During the quarter, AVANT has been active in ongoing discussions with the U.S. government regarding development of vaccines to protect against bioterrorism agents.
Last week AVANT announced that its partner, DynPort Vaccine Company LLC (DVC), will enter into a Phase I clinical trial of a new injectable recombinant anthrax vaccine in approximately 70 volunteers. The vaccine candidate consists of a highly purified protein - Protective Antigen - derived from the anthrax bacterium using recombinant technology and advance production processes licensed from AVANT. DVC hopes this vaccine will offer a safe, effective product to support the country's need for a new-generation anthrax vaccine.
Bacterial Vaccines
On September 30, 2002, AVANT announced successful results of a Phase II dose-ranging study of its investigational cholera vaccine, Peru-15. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the safety, immunogenicity and dose-response relationship of the vaccine with the aim of optimizing dosage and evaluating a new buffer system prior to undertaking larger-scale clinical studies.
"The excellent results from this trial have allowed us to establish that a single dose produces an effective immune response," said Alistair Wheeler, MD, Vice President, Medical Affairs of AVANT Immunotherapeutics. "The vaccine was well tolerated in vaccinated individuals, results confirm that the new buffer system works well with Peru-15, and the study generated sufficient data to describe a dose-response relationship for the vaccine. We are pleased that the results of this study provide a solid basis for the further clinical development of Peru-15."
Cholesterol Management Vaccine
During the quarter, AVANT also completed enrollment in the placebo-controlled Phase II study of its cholesterol management vaccine (CETi-1) in approximately 200 subjects with low levels of HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol. The company is half way through this important two-year study and on schedule to report results in the second half of 2003.
Animal Health and Food Safety Vaccines
Additionally, AVANT has appointed Lohmann Animal Health International (LAHI) as the exclusive distributor of its Megan Health poultry vaccines in North America, which AVANT believes leverages the value of its oral vaccine technology in a significant market opportunity outside of AVANT's own focus on human health care.
"AVANT has made significant progress in leveraging the value of its vaccine technologies for multiple human healthcare needs, as well as applications in animal health and food safety," commented Dr. Ryan.
UPCOMING EVENTS:
AVAN to present at the Bill Gates Foundation/Global Health Forum Dec 3-5, Washington DC:
http://biospace.com/news_story.cfm?StoryID=10875420
http://biospace.com/news_story.cfm?StoryID=10875420&full=1
Companies Researching Diseases Of Developing Nations To Present At Gates Foundation/Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) Global Health Forum
WASHINGTON, Nov. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Today the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announced the participation of 20 biotechnology companies who will present their technologies at the Partnering for Global Health Forum, Dec. 3-5, at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington. The forum will bring together industry leaders, potential funders and international health experts to discuss how biotechnology can be used to find treatments and cures for diseases in the developing world. These diseases include HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.
Each of the presenting biotechnology companies are researching and developing technologies and products to address these neglected diseases. The companies will present developments important to improving global health to an audience comprised of government procurement officials, private foundations, public-private partnership organizations, and investors.
Below is a list of presenting companies. Please visit
http://www.bio.org for complete information.
* Advanced Life Sciences, Inc.
* AlphaVax, Inc.
* AVANT Immunotherapeutics, Inc.
* Cambria Biosciences LLC
* Cellestis Ltd.
* Corixa Corporation
* Divergence, Inc.
* HandyLab, Inc.
* Hollis-Eden Pharmaceuticals
* Iguazu Biosciences
* Institute for OneWorld Health
* Immtech International, Inc.
* Iomai Corporation
* Maxygen, Inc.
* Mojave Therapeutics, Inc.
* OmniViral Therapeutics, LLC
* Sequella, Inc.
* VaxGen, Inc.
* ViroLogic, Inc.
* Zentaris AG
Confirmed speakers for the forum include Dr. Elias Zerhouni, director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH); Dr. David L. Heymann, executive director of communicable diseases for the World Health Organization (WHO); Carl B. Feldbaum, president of BIO; Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID); Richard G.A. Feachem, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Laurie Garrett, winner of the Pulitzer, Polk and Peabody Prize and author of "The Coming Plague"; and Dr. Richard Klausner, executive director of Global Health for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Complimentary press registration is available for credentialed members of the news media. Advance press registration has been extended until Dec. 2, please visit http://www.bio.org to register. Onsite media registration begins Wednesday, Dec. 4 at 7:00 a.m.
BIO represents more than 1,000 biotechnology companies, academic institutions, state biotechnology centers and related organizations in all 50 U.S. states and 33 other nations. BIO members are involved in the research and development of health-care, agricultural, industrial and environmental biotechnology products.
Sample Plan from the Plan Builder
Plan 11-16-2002
Stock Symbol: ________
1: Research stock and industry news for future trend bias:
Long: _____ Short: _____
2: Check seasonality reports to determine possible future trend bias:
Long: _____ Short: _____
3: Check the sectors institutional activity for bullish or bearish bias.
Long: _____ Short: _____
4: Check trend of Industry group and trade in same direction.
Long: _____ Short: _____
5: Check intraday, daily and weekly charts for support, resistance, trade entry price, stop loss, and current trend.
Long: _____ Short: _____ Entry Price:_____ Stop Loss:_____ Target:_____
6: Setup X_Dev for maximized profitability and adjust for the markets primary trend.
Profitibility:_____%
7: Look for similarities between X_Dev entry price, and the daily charts entry price.
Good: _____ Questionable: _____
Overview:
Trade using X_Dev:_____ Entry Price:_____ Stop Loss:_____ Target:_____
Trend: Bullish:_____ Bearish:_____
Trade: Long:_____ Short:_____
Was Trade Successful?
YES: _____
NO: _____
Trading Philosophy
1. Know the companies I invest in. Take the time to research the company for few days from different sources. Make sure I read the entire news article and not just the headlines.
2. On the first trade cycle, only trade half positions or less to get a feel for how the stock trades.
3. Keep close tabs on the health of the industry groups my stocks are in.
4. Don't put all my eggs in one basket. No matter how good a trade looks, I will not commit all my capital. Keep spare cash on hand, or a trading stake in reserve (hedge). If you're out of money, you're out of the game.
5. For every position I enter, establish a target and a stop-loss. This is the key to trading discipline. Have a plan before I get in and stick to it.
6. Trade with the trend. Don't fight it.
7. I don't know with 100-percent certainty whether the trade will be profitable or not.
8. I don't know how much money will be made or lost on a trade.
9. If I do not control the profit outcome and do not know with 100-percent certainty which trades will work, then the I should spend 100-percent of my time concentrating on the only element of the trade I can control – the risk of the trade.
10. The key to my success is to gain the ability to pinpoint how much I can afford to lose. Thinking about losing requires discipline. By focusing acutely on my trading plan, the probabilities for profits or losses and streaks of each, and risk control, risk-taking becomes more manageable and can give me the ultimate gift – FREEDOM!!!!!
11. Many hours of preparation occur long before any trade is entered. GET USED TO IT!!!!! The market will always be there and there will always be more opportunities around the next corner.
12. Monitoring a profitable trade in progress also requires discipline – follow my trading plan. Do not be concerned about minuscule fluctuations if my goal is higher. There are two sets of questions that I will ask myself:
A) "Is the market still in the same primary trend since I placed the trade? Am I comfortable with the risk level on this trade?"
If the answer to both of these questions is "yes" I should stay in the trade. If the answer is "no" to either of these questions then its time to exit the trade.
B) "Has the pattern in the trade changed from the original pattern? Has the initial price objective been reached?"
If the answer is "yes" to either of these questions its time to exit the trade. If the answer is "no" then the trade must continue.
13. Trading is a business of dealing with probabilities, not certainties. I never know which trades will work; the problem arises when I only ‘think’ I know."
14. Always remember, sentiment rules the short term while fundamentals rule the long term.
15. On longer term trades I should heed X_DEV's signals, because they are the better calls over the longer term. Unemotional, objective price points based on mathematics will always favor a trader/investor that's in it for the long haul. Any optimized X_DEV chart is proof of that.
Questions about the site? Post them here. X_Dev discussions more than welcome as well!
JimBob
JB,
I don't allow free promotion of sites, especially for-pay sites, unless you plan to use this as a support forum, discuss potential investments, etc with the community. Things like AIM, X-Dev, Stockcharts.com etc are fine.
Let me know what the plan is.
MB
We are now open for business!!!!
To celebrate this grand occasion we are offering an introductory subscription price!!!
Sign up now, this price won't last long!!!!
http://www.tradingincubator.com
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