vestorAnalytics.com

[Jimbob]

Here is recent pick I am playing, with X_Dev and fundamental research included. http://www.vestorAnalytics.com

AVAN Avant Immunotherapeutics Inc (NASDAQ NM)

Rating: Speculative Short/Long Term Buy
Date of Recommendation: 11/26/2002
Price: $1.20


SYNOPSIS:

AVAN is definitively a very interesting pick with a great potential upside for the short and long term.

Speculation on War with Iraq and bioterrorism are excellent arguments to build momentum.

The core business of the company is the research, production and commercialization of vaccines for the prevention of diseases and among them of particular note those related to protection of military personnel and civilians against bacterial and viral agents used in biowarfare or terrorist activities.
Under the current political environment the demand for such products is definitively poised to get a boost.

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2Fse...


"CONGRESS RECENTLY approved an 18% increase in military R&D, to $58.8 billion for the current fiscal year — more money, after accounting for inflation, than the Pentagon ever spent on research during the Cold War. Early next year, the National Institutes of Health is in line for a similar-size boost to around $26 billion, partly to examine biological-warfare defenses. In all, the federal government will likely spend about $115 billion on R&D in the year ending Sept. 30, far more than Japan and the 15 European Union governments will spend collectively."



FINANCIALS:

The company has no debt and a cash position of
$31.7M.

Particularly of note is the financial progression of the revenues with a sequential increase between the last 2 qtrs of 610%
Sept 30 2002 / Jun 30 2002 / Mar 31, 2002
$4,560,400 / $642,700 / $690,900

and Net Loss decreased 95%
Sept 30 2002 / Jun 30 2002 / Mar 31, 2002
($276,200) / ($5,164,300) / ($4,913,600)



http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/a/avan.html



TA (chart):

From a technical analysis perspective the chart pattern (daily time frame) shows a perfect bullish trend with the price currently close to the base of the channel.
Today the stock crossed over and closed above EMAs (13,20 & 50) on a volume almost double than average.
Currently the stock is oversold: RSI(14)= 25 and stochastics coming out of the 20s area after a positive cross.













FIRMS THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM THE NEW BATTLE AGAINST BIOTERRORISM:

MOVING TARGETS
Avant Immunotherapeutics (Nasdaq: AVAN) CEO Dr. Una Ryan said as much on October 23 at a hearing on biological warfare defense vaccine research-and-development programs in front of the House Committee on Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations.

Dr. Ryan told the committee of some of the difficulties in combating a bioterrorist attack, such as distributing drug treatments to a large exposed population and the relative ease with which an attacker can create mutant drug-resistant strains. "In addition to the same logistical problems," she said, "the antidote approach must contend with the fact that the organism that causes anthrax, Bacillus anthracis, is in itself not the cause of illness or death, but rather the producer of toxins that ultimately kill its host or rapidly trigger downstream havoc in the body."

Avant is developing vaccines designed, as Dr. Ryan put it, to "prevent the establishment of virulence and subsequent toxin production if the bacteria were to be encountered through any of the known routes: inhalation, ingestion, or skin contact."

http://www.redherring.com/insider/2001/1026/240020424.html



Review of Additional Events During last Quarter

Bioterrorism Vaccines

In early July, AVANT was awarded a Phase I Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grant by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to support the development of the company's single oral-dose bacterial vectors to immunize people against anthrax. The proposed bacterial vectors are derived from AVANT's cholera and typhoid fever vaccines currently in clinical development. During the quarter, AVANT has been active in ongoing discussions with the U.S. government regarding development of vaccines to protect against bioterrorism agents.

Last week AVANT announced that its partner, DynPort Vaccine Company LLC (DVC), will enter into a Phase I clinical trial of a new injectable recombinant anthrax vaccine in approximately 70 volunteers. The vaccine candidate consists of a highly purified protein - Protective Antigen - derived from the anthrax bacterium using recombinant technology and advance production processes licensed from AVANT. DVC hopes this vaccine will offer a safe, effective product to support the country's need for a new-generation anthrax vaccine.

Bacterial Vaccines

On September 30, 2002, AVANT announced successful results of a Phase II dose-ranging study of its investigational cholera vaccine, Peru-15. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the safety, immunogenicity and dose-response relationship of the vaccine with the aim of optimizing dosage and evaluating a new buffer system prior to undertaking larger-scale clinical studies.

"The excellent results from this trial have allowed us to establish that a single dose produces an effective immune response," said Alistair Wheeler, MD, Vice President, Medical Affairs of AVANT Immunotherapeutics. "The vaccine was well tolerated in vaccinated individuals, results confirm that the new buffer system works well with Peru-15, and the study generated sufficient data to describe a dose-response relationship for the vaccine. We are pleased that the results of this study provide a solid basis for the further clinical development of Peru-15."

Cholesterol Management Vaccine

During the quarter, AVANT also completed enrollment in the placebo-controlled Phase II study of its cholesterol management vaccine (CETi-1) in approximately 200 subjects with low levels of HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol. The company is half way through this important two-year study and on schedule to report results in the second half of 2003.

Animal Health and Food Safety Vaccines

Additionally, AVANT has appointed Lohmann Animal Health International (LAHI) as the exclusive distributor of its Megan Health poultry vaccines in North America, which AVANT believes leverages the value of its oral vaccine technology in a significant market opportunity outside of AVANT's own focus on human health care.

"AVANT has made significant progress in leveraging the value of its vaccine technologies for multiple human healthcare needs, as well as applications in animal health and food safety," commented Dr. Ryan.



UPCOMING EVENTS:

AVAN to present at the Bill Gates Foundation/Global Health Forum Dec 3-5, Washington DC:


http://biospace.com/news_story.cfm?StoryID=10875420

http://biospace.com/news_story.cfm?StoryID=10875420&full=1

Companies Researching Diseases Of Developing Nations To Present At Gates Foundation/Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) Global Health Forum

WASHINGTON, Nov. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Today the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announced the participation of 20 biotechnology companies who will present their technologies at the Partnering for Global Health Forum, Dec. 3-5, at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington. The forum will bring together industry leaders, potential funders and international health experts to discuss how biotechnology can be used to find treatments and cures for diseases in the developing world. These diseases include HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.

Each of the presenting biotechnology companies are researching and developing technologies and products to address these neglected diseases. The companies will present developments important to improving global health to an audience comprised of government procurement officials, private foundations, public-private partnership organizations, and investors.

Below is a list of presenting companies. Please visit
http://www.bio.org for complete information.


* Advanced Life Sciences, Inc.

* AlphaVax, Inc.

* AVANT Immunotherapeutics, Inc.

* Cambria Biosciences LLC

* Cellestis Ltd.

* Corixa Corporation

* Divergence, Inc.

* HandyLab, Inc.

* Hollis-Eden Pharmaceuticals

* Iguazu Biosciences

* Institute for OneWorld Health

* Immtech International, Inc.

* Iomai Corporation

* Maxygen, Inc.

* Mojave Therapeutics, Inc.

* OmniViral Therapeutics, LLC

* Sequella, Inc.

* VaxGen, Inc.

* ViroLogic, Inc.

* Zentaris AG

Confirmed speakers for the forum include Dr. Elias Zerhouni, director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH); Dr. David L. Heymann, executive director of communicable diseases for the World Health Organization (WHO); Carl B. Feldbaum, president of BIO; Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID); Richard G.A. Feachem, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Laurie Garrett, winner of the Pulitzer, Polk and Peabody Prize and author of "The Coming Plague"; and Dr. Richard Klausner, executive director of Global Health for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Complimentary press registration is available for credentialed members of the news media. Advance press registration has been extended until Dec. 2, please visit http://www.bio.org to register. Onsite media registration begins Wednesday, Dec. 4 at 7:00 a.m.

BIO represents more than 1,000 biotechnology companies, academic institutions, state biotechnology centers and related organizations in all 50 U.S. states and 33 other nations. BIO members are involved in the research and development of health-care, agricultural, industrial and environmental biotechnology products.