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Augie--any thoughts?
"LG - given the reaction to my P&S question, are "sto d-blows" a topic you are willing to discuss here? I'm teasing, sort of, but I actually would like to figure out the logic behind that theory. A cursory look at some charts (the depth of my analysis) suggests that there may be at least some surface validity to the idea that a rally has failed when the stochastics turn up from 20, then touch 50, and then reverse back down again. If the stochastics setting is for the last 14 days, and the indicator is at 50, I understand that to mean that the current close is in the 50th percentile of the highs and lows for the last 14 days. If the price turns back down after the stochastics indicator drops from 50, is that more or less the same as saying that price has reached, and been repelled at, a 50% fib. level? Maybe there's no relationship between the two. Pardon me if this is an ignorant question."
Hi Augie
I took this lesson today, thanks.
Looking at JXM's blue arrows and TRINQ comments, I don't understand at all.
But I don't understand much.
Thanks again.
Have Fun
Ergo Sum
Rich1, I see that somebody already gave you this info on SI, but I'll post it anyway for the thousands of lurkers here. <GGG>
INDEX-CORRELATED MUTUAL FUNDS OF INTEREST TO TRADERS
Check with your broker about their policies on fees, order
deadlines, minimum investments, etc., as all of these can
vary from one institution to another.
------------------------------------------------------
Positively Correlated Index Funds
*ProFunds*
UltraBull Fund (ULPIX) 2 x SPX
UltraMid-Cap (UMPIX) 2 x S&P MidCap 400
UltraOTC (UOPIX) 2 x NDX
UltraSmall-Cap (UAPIX) 2 x RUT
Bull Fund (BLPIX) 1 x SPX
OTC ProFund (OTPIX) 1 x NDX
http://www.profunds.com/
*Rydex*
Velocity 100 (RYVYX) 2 x NDX
Titan 500 (RYTNX) 2 x SPX
Series Trust Nova Fund (RYNVX) 1.5 x SPX
OTC Fund (RYOCX) 1 x NDX
http://www.rydexfunds.com/index.cfm
*Potomac Funds*
Potomac Dow 30 Plus (PDOWX) 1.25 x DJIA
Potomac OTC Plus Fund (POTCX) 1.25 x COMP
U.S. Plus Fund (PSPLX) 1.5 x SPX
http://www.potomacfunds.com/default.jsp
-------------------------------------------
Negatively Correlated Index Funds
*ProFunds*
UltraBear ProFund Investor CL (URPIX) -2 x SPX
Ultra Short OTC ProFund Investor CL (USPIX) -2 x NDX
Bear ProFund Investor CL (BRPIX) -1 x SPX
http://www.profunds.com/
*Rydex*
Rydex TEMPEST 500 (RYTPX) -2 x SPX
Rydex Venture 100 Fund (RYVNX) -2 x NDX
Rydex Artkos Inv CL (RYAIX) -1 x NDX
Rydex Ursa Inv CL (RYURX) -1 x SPX
http://www.rydexfunds.com/index.cfm
*Potomac Funds*
Potomac Small Cap/Short (POSSX) -1 x RUT
Potomac US Short (PSPSX) -1 x SPX
Potomac OTC Short (POTSX) -1 x COMP
http://www.potomacfunds.com/default.jsp
Potomac Funds Family list on Yahoo:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/fam/potomac_funds.html
ProFunds Family List on Yahoo:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/fam/profunds.html
Rydex Funds Family List on Yahoo:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/fam/rydex_funds.html
----------------------------------------------------------
A COUPLE OTHER FUNDS FOR BAD ECONOMIC TIMES
Note: Unlike the funds listed above, these funds, so far as I know, are subject to all the usual fees and limitations as are the vast majority of mutual funds.
----------------------------------------------------------
*Prudent Bear Fund*
Prudent Bear Fund seeks capital appreciation. The fund invests primarily in common stocks and warrants. It may engage in short sales and effect transactions in stock index futures contracts, options on stock index futures contracts, and options on securities and stock indexes. To select investments, the advisor first determines whether to hold more long or short equity positions; it is expected that the fund will hold both types of equity positions at all times, but this may vary depending on the current dividend yield of the S&P 500. The fund may invest up to 20% of assets in American depositary receipts.
*Prudent Safe Harbor Fund*
Prudent Safe Harbor Fund seeks current income and capital appreciation. The fund invests in liquid securities issued by major industrialized nations and other countries with sound economic and financial systems. The fund attempts to capitalize on currency fluctuations by investing in securities issued by governments whose currency is believed to appreciate in relative value. It also invests in equity securities of companies that mine gold and gold bullion.
http://www.prudentbear.com/
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
Hi Augie. Thanks much for this informational thread.
Just a quick question. Would this not mark one of those t-q tops that "Jeff" on SI talks about. TRINQ was about 0.1-0.20 most of yesterday, I believe. (I'm asking because I'm still thick on his interpretation of a t-q top)
Could this rally mark the absolute high of the next rally using Jeff's lingo. (wherever it actually tops out?)
It would line up with the snap-back rally off the 1000 bottom the retrace is looking for.
Keep up the good work.
GT
I don't know. One of Jeff's theories has something to do with following the larger monthly SMAs, i.e., 200, 225, 250, etc. I really don't understand the rationale behind this one, but you might try ajtj99. I think he knows what it's about.
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
What's up with this?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18100648
Jim, the concensus WAG seems to be something along the lines of:
1. drop to 1000 area after this coming options expiration week.
2. rally to 1250 area
3. slow bleed down to about 700 (that's what Jeff refers to as "the killing fields."
After that, who knows?
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
Augie, at what point do the "Master Retracologists" expect to throw away their retrace charts & find another line of work?
That is, how far back or, how far down do they expect to follow the retrace before they decide the retrace is complete?
Thanks,
Jim
A couple AJC graphics to amuse on this Sunday evening...
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
Yep, I'd say there's a definite divergence of opinion.
On the one hand, I think the retrace is real, has a long way to go, and we will see 1000 before we see 1300 again. (That's pretty much Jeff's position too.)
On the other hand, The Z-Man is like farking NEVER wrong.
The way I reconcile it is that Z is quite often early, and generally a bit too optimistic. So, I think there is a good possibility that the divergence will converge a bit over the next few to several weeks.
On the subject of cheap shots, why don't you bop on over to LG's MDA thread? Very low noise, good TA, and LG doesn't allow any ankle-biters -- period. (The link's in my signature thingie.)
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
Yep, I'd say there's a definite divergence of opinion.
On the one hand, I think the retrace is real, has a long way to go, and we will see 1000 before we see 1300 again. (That's pretty much Jeff's position too.)
On the other hand, The Z-Man is like farking NEVER wrong.
The way I reconcile it is that Z is quite often early, and generally a bit too optimistic. So, I think there is a good possibility that the divergence will converge a bit over the next few to several weeks.
On the subject of cheap shots, why don't you bop on over to LG's MDA thread? Very low noise, good TA, and LG doesn't allow any ankle-biters -- period. (The link's in my signature thingie.)
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
theres a divergence of opinion ......
either that or i totally misinterpreted the comments ....
hey augie ......
Zeev sez mkt takes off from sometime here or mid oct until dec
...... a mini bull run .......
jeff sez ..... d' blows occurring .......
get the hell out by mid-oct (??) .........
......... ???????????
am i missing something here ...... ???
am i reading this right ???
totally confused .....
just playing what the charts-TA are telling me .......
can u set me straight here ???
oh yeah .... hope u dont mind me postng here ......
just wanna stay outta the lime light ......
seems ppl like to take cheap shots every now and then ....
esp that hamvestor ..... F*cken lil shithead .... :-P
they sure are brave hiding behind a puter .....
again thanx for your comments ......
cya
david
You're welcome. (:
A while ago, while I was still following individual stocks, I started a thread on the subject, #board-1240, but I haven't done much with it lately. Now I follow the XAU, but I don't really follow individual stocks. Lately though, I've been trying to come up with a short list of gold stocks to start accumulating in small quantities on pull backs, and msloft, one of the poster's on Zeev's thread whose opinion I value, just posted on this subject the other day. #msg-516043
I'm not sure what either Zeev or Jeff thinks about gold or gold stocks these days, but I would assume Zeev would be more toward the negative side, and Jeff more toward the positive.
I know what you mean about not being able to daytrade like Zeev. I don't think there are many who can.
As one relative newbie to another, about the best advice I can give you is to limit the number of things you follow at once. That's why I gave up following individual stocks -- severe info overload.
Now I concentrate on the COMP, NDX, SOX, and BTK, plus I watch the similar components of the NYSE on a lesser basis, (NYA, INDU, SPX, BKX), and track various indicators, such as VXN, and some futures that tend to have a big effect on the economy and the markets, such as futures on gold, the dollar, and oil, and a few other key sectors, such as Transportation, Utilities, Oil Services, and the like.
By the time I get done looking over all that stuff, I don't have any TIME to think about individual stocks, so I only trade exchange traded funds, and now I'm concentrating almost exclusively on Profunds. Boy, those 2X funds are really scary though... When you pick the wrong direction, or even if you're just a little early, your money drains away like water evaporating in the desert!
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
thanx augie ....
much appreciated ....
augie ....
do u follow gold stocks ??......
wuz reviewing jeff's older comments .....
he commented that the gold stocks have a way to go .......
and it SHOULD rally "inversely" to naz/ dow stocks ....
he also mentioned way back. like all bubbles ....
the gold stocks should will ramp up fast in the " later" stages of the bubble ..... then poof .... it'll be sucked back to earth ......basically simulating the ascent and descent of the NAZ during the bubble years ....only the time frame will be tighter .....
(reference pt --> Monday, Jun 3, 2002 7:54 PM - message#1511)
i believe ZEEV has the opposite view .... namely the gold stocks are not going to ramp up .......
just wondering what your views are regarding these 2 opposing views .......
also wondering if jeff has changed his view regarding gold stocks forming their own bubble .....
alot of things on my mind .....
as i CANNOT daytrade like Zeev .....
but trying to selectively " swing " trade
while learning more TA .....
also have both eyes WIDE OPEN so i dont get taken out B4 the next ramp up ......
life is real interesting indeed ........
again.....
thanx for your time, graphs and comments .....
cya
david
David, I posted your question to Jeff, now we'll both see if he answers. <ggg>
In case he doesn't, my best recollection is that he uses crosses above/below the zero line as buy/sell signals.
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
hey augie ...
been reading jeff's chart .....
i noticed that his PPO has (5, 10,1) setting ......
the chart is in message #8560 .....
why those settings ???
any idea ??
also ....
thanx for directing me to change the settings on slo-fast-full STO ....
those settings are much more " defined" ........
love whats goin on at the P&S board .......
wish i could jump in ......
but ..... i only have so much $$$ to go around ....(
have a nice weekend ....
cya
david
yoo augie ...
thanx for the booklist .....
i actually had Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
and Nison, Japanese Candlestick Charting on my list .....
thanx for confirming my list .....
noticed that u had listed - Farley, The Master Swing Trader book .....
eye wuz gonna buy
the " big trends in trading -strategies to master in major mkt moves " by price headley ........
==and==
" tools and tactics for the master daytrader: battletested techniques for day swing and position traders "
by oliver velez and greg capra
gonna hafta review my " buy " list again ....
need 2 narrow down my choices ........
sooooooo ..... many books ......
sooooooo ..... lil money ......
when buyin these books ....
$500 sure dont go far ....... (
thanx again .....
keep up the good work...... dooood .........
cya
david
Hi David,
I think Jeff is a full time trader, but I can't say for sure.
As far as books go, here are the ones I use:
Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
A "must have" for pattern reading, because Bulkowski is the only one out there, (that I have found), who has made an actual quantitative study of the success rates of each chart pattern. Not perfect, but good.
Dorsey, Point & Figure Charting
If you're interested in PnF, this is "the" book.
Edwards & McGee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
Either this one or Murphy is a "must have" for analyzing the markets in general.
Farley, The Master Swing Trader
If you're serious about trading, check out Farley's web site, http://www.hardrightedge.com , and get this book. Not for beginners!
Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
[See Edwards & McGee]
Nison, Japanese Candlestick Charting
Nison, Beyond Candlesticks
The first Nison book is a "must have" if you want to understand candlestick charting. (I find that most folks, who get their info from free online sites, really don't have any idea what they're doing in this area.) The second is a good supplement, but you won't get much out of it unless you've really digested the first one.
HTH,
(:
Most recent Charts @ MDA Thread #board-1320
My Trading Stuff #board-1220
PPT Archive #board-1280
Charting Experiments #board-1263
ooops ... meant 1932 brain teaser .....
augie .... a couple of questions .....
just curious ..... is jeff a full time trader ....??
since hes the only one to bother to answer that 1929 brain teaser .....
and ......
u use any reference books to help with your TA / charting ???
wuz lookin at amazon and chapters ......
lookin at a few books but .....
gonna rack up over 600$ worth of TA-candlestick-chart pattern books .......
just wonderin if u think theres any " must haves " out there ???
thanx ........
oh yeah ....
keep up the GREAT work .....
luv yore chartz ......
cya
david
augieboo: Here is one for your collection...gg
http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm
Regards,
LG
Gad - what an education. Believe I will finally be able to figure out what ajt and others have been talking about.
hey augie ....
very nice charts ......
BTW .....
would /does jeff make guest appearances every now and then ???
been reading off SI's P&S thread .....
very interesting perspective ......
thanx for the charts and info ......
cya
david
Grub, Grub!
Looks Good! I Like it :^)
Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!
grub
(:
Most recent Charts @ MDA Thread #board-1320
My Trading Stuff #board-1220
PPT Archive #board-1280
Charting Experiments #board-1263
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