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Popped up over $7.50 twice today. Still seeing some larger block trades, which perhaps suggests short covering. If the short statistics you are looking at are well behind the curve in reporting, it could make it hard to parse the octane level in the rocket fuel remaining for driving this now.
It you are here for the short term trade on the short squeeze, it would be useful to look at this closely, from here, to monitor the institutional holding vs the shares short...
Popped up to $5.25 briefly today...
Article linked from Yahoo notes that the shorts have been taking it in the shorts and have reduced positions from 4 million short to "only" 3.8 million short at mid month.
Still expect fireworks from short covering before too long, but so far the shares are moving up nicely with only modest covering.
Still see value here at twice the price... but expect the shorts will drive it up more than that in covering.
Also note that they symobl has changed with the shift to the NASDAQ: it is not trading as QCOR... not QSC.
Good open at $4.49, a brief dip, 800 shares at $4.43, and then a steady progression higher all morning, still on very light volume, with lots of small trades, only a few larger blocks, and very few shares being made available for sale.
MACD has "just" moved back into the green, and "just" moved back to an uptrend... so this still looks like it is still an early uptick in putting together what might be a much larger move higher. Money flow is in the middle of the range, CCI is up, with a steady trend in accumulation over the last six sessions.
Still has to be a large number of shares short...
Closed at exactly $4.45, but ticked higher to $4.48 a second after the close. There was an acceleration up from trend early mid afternoon, setting up the shorts attack to try to keep the close below $4.43, but the effort failed...
I'm guessing tomorrow might be a little bit more exciting than today, with good potential for a higher open, and if short covering begins tomorrow morning, it could move in earnest.
Last report I had the float is 44 million and there are 4 million shares short, reportedly with a $4.43 trigger. Today perhaps did did look like some short covering... but we've seen nothing like the volume that would have allowed them to exit, yet.
my hunch is that I don't think the upside surprises are done, yet...
Starting to move.
I expect this thing to really go once it crosses above $4.45, where the shorts will have to start doing more than worry.
News...
The company is moving to the nasdaq from amex. New symbol will be QCOR.
Wonder what impact that will have on the shorts ?
Oh,...
And some short squeeze potential with company share buy back resuming in the morning... buyback authorized for another 5.5 million shares... and maybe still some 3 million shares short ?
Following "The Ugly" is the reality that matters, the ugly is deliberately overstated and frontloaded in the report today... so that looking forward, there is little but good news to look forward to.
My current guess is that I'm likely to be disappointed relative to any ongoing buy back strategy I'd prefer and that my disappointment won't matter. The market price over the last two months, and the range TODAY, is likely being predictive... so I'm guessing we'll see the shares being bought back in the next round at $4.35 or higher... likely not lower than todays lows, or there will be a lot of ticked off shareholders... and likely not much higher than the recent average price to start...
I do think there is a risk or danger in future valuation that will likely be realized or not depending on what the next phase of the buy back looks like. Not aggressive enough, and the company risks setting trends that are not useful... so I'd guess the target price will be $4.35 to $4.58... and that trading from here will focus more on that than on the not bad but "worst case" quarterly report just seen... which leaves a few minor problems behind, and ONLY a lot of good news out in front: a wired in earnings pop from $0.02 to something over $0.09 in the next report... and an acceleration in accounts receivable worth an extra $10 million in the next after that... with the more important drivers of future valuation still not even being included as a part of the discussion.
It seems I have been locked out of posting on the Yahoo QSC board... a first for me... after having begun a series of posts labeled, The Good, which posted, The Bad, which posted, and The Ugly... which I cannot get to post. Oddly, I'm not negative on the company or the stock... so it seems SOMEBODY just doesn't want honest discussion of the stock or market action in the stock... and has blocked my ability to post "somehow"...
Here, then, is The Ugly:
1. Accounts receivable variation may be well within the expected range with seasonal variation, but that seems a thing which might be adjusted for in future planning to try to avoid reporting the resulting and expected seasonal variation as real changes in the value of the company in assets... which shows an unreal change in the business taken over time as actually altering the real value of the company. Maybe some way of hedging out the seasonal risks ? Probably doesn't really belong in the "ugly' column, but planning to smooth the performance out over time would be useful.
2. In spite of eliminating the preferred, and in spite of the buy back, shares outstanding INCREASED... which increase was almost significant enough to dilute out the impact of all the shares bought back thus far in the basic share figure, and almost significant enough to dilute out the impact of the elimination of the preferred in the diluted shares figure. The annualized projection of the shares outstanding is noted as net of additional buy backs... so, it looks like going forward the entire impact of any share buy back will actually benefit shareholders instead of barely covering a transfer of ownership of the company from shareholders to management by dilution as this report shows. The key metrics in progress on share structure reported this quarter were entirely wiped out as a result.
That raises a couple of concerns looking forward...
First, of course, is the concern over whether or not this is a one time occurrence... or a pattern that will be repeated... which shareholders are right to question with fair amount of suspicion given market experience. It makes a big difference whether the dilution seen was shares removed from the bucket with a dipper, or shares pissed out an open hole in the bucket, which, as happened this quarter, can drain value out faster than value is added.
Second, is the meaning relative to the conduct of the share buy back plans being executed. The buyback in the last period clearly had price limits, which kept the stock price tracking along on the 120 MA, or around $4, with little else, making it appear the effort was designed to maximize shares bought in at around a fixed price. I'd be happier, looking at the report today, if the buy back had done more and done it more aggressively... both in order to get the basic shares outstanding numbers back into a better balance, and in order to use the effort to "maximize shareholder value" as opposed to "buying shares in cheaply". The difference is critical. If the buy back resumes again soon with a goal of buying shares cheaply, instead of maximizing value... I'll find that disappointing. My disappointment probably won't matter very much, but the share price now probably depends more on expectations in that effort than anything else.
up good luck!
I hope so the co. is def moving in the right direction
lucky you...It really looks like she will see 7-9$ +
No lol but did get some cheapies :)
very nice stock here. Were you the lucky one to get some at 25 cents? ;)
nice :) hope more good news
news out and conf call at 11AM - eom
Hit new hi today
MK
sounds good to me :) gltu
anyone notice the 700 K shares purchased Friday, all in a few minutes?
Big block (250 K) traded on Thursday as well.
hmmmmmm? something up? Might be some really good news coming soon.
well i think it will continue to move up gltu
Nuther new hi
never got back in
dang
MK
:) yep i would look for some consolidation but overall this stock rocks
Still in here :) and looking great!
Pred
agreed the buyers early on are not letting go of their shares :)
No real dip
very strong looking
MK
Questcor Pharmaceuticals Just Ramping Up
posted on: November 13, 2007 | about stocks: QSC
On Monday, Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMEX: QSC) reported great earnings for their 3rd quarter of $14.8 million and that is compared with $4 million for the same period a year ago. This pushed the stock passed its 52-week high of $1.89 to close at $1.92 up 61 cents or over 46% on over 7.5 million shares traded for the day.
The Net Income that they reported for the quarter was 12 cents per share versus a loss of 3 cents per share for the same period a year ago. This is called growth.
It would not be a shock at all if Questcor Pharmaceuticals, in this volatile market, moves above the $2.40 range in short order. Investors should actually have this one in their sights.
QSC not done by a long shot... as long as volume pours in... it goes North IMO.
Shares
69.21 m
EPS (TTM)
-0.16
Avg Vol (3m): 737,364
Today'sVolume
11,070,100
Market Cap: 314.89M
Review the earnings in the latest 10Q. A drug already in market is awaiting approval for another indication (disease state). Approval would broaden the potential market for use of the drug.... and thus more profit for QSC.
Results of Operations
Three months ended September 30, 2007 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2006:
Total Net Product Sales
Three Months Ended
September 30, %
2007 2006 Increase Change
(in $000’s)
Net product sales
$ 14,809 $ 4,045 $ 10,764 266 %
very smart watch for that dip though :)
Agree looks good
but I m all out for now
profit is profit hehe
will watch and re enter
MK
just the start imho
Think this is an all time
hi for this
MK
Up, Up, and AWAAYYYYYY!!!
Still moving up off that Q3 earnings!
Where's the limit?
Pred
No prob... this one has run left LOL.
Like this one alot i think this is just the start imo GLTU
Been in this stick since EOD yesterday (11/12) and I came on IHUB to talk on the QSC board, but there wasn't one!
LOL Thanks guys for taking the initiative!
Pred
This stock rocks....................
got some around 2.00 no worries here glad to see a good co. turn course
With PE.. may make 5-6 bucks... lotsa volume here, and still going AH.
Questcor swings to Q3 profit
Monday November 12, 6:06 pm ET
Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc. reported a profit of $8.6 million for the third quarter.
The Union City company (AMEX: QSC - News) lost $1.5 million in the same quarter a year ago.
Sales of the company's H.P. Acthar Gel drug for multiple sclerosis related conditions pushed it to a profit. Questcor recorded $14.6 million in sales of the drug during the quarter, making up the lion's share of the company's third quarter revenue of $14.8 million.
A year ago Questcor had sales of $4 million in the third quarter.
The company is also developing a pain drug, which it hopes to put into clinical trials next year.
Published November 12, 2007 by San Francisco Business Times
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