Following "The Ugly" is the reality that matters, the ugly is deliberately overstated and frontloaded in the report today... so that looking forward, there is little but good news to look forward to.
My current guess is that I'm likely to be disappointed relative to any ongoing buy back strategy I'd prefer and that my disappointment won't matter. The market price over the last two months, and the range TODAY, is likely being predictive... so I'm guessing we'll see the shares being bought back in the next round at $4.35 or higher... likely not lower than todays lows, or there will be a lot of ticked off shareholders... and likely not much higher than the recent average price to start...
I do think there is a risk or danger in future valuation that will likely be realized or not depending on what the next phase of the buy back looks like. Not aggressive enough, and the company risks setting trends that are not useful... so I'd guess the target price will be $4.35 to $4.58... and that trading from here will focus more on that than on the not bad but "worst case" quarterly report just seen... which leaves a few minor problems behind, and ONLY a lot of good news out in front: a wired in earnings pop from $0.02 to something over $0.09 in the next report... and an acceleration in accounts receivable worth an extra $10 million in the next after that... with the more important drivers of future valuation still not even being included as a part of the discussion.
