Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Interesting:
Researchers Look to Reverse Hearing Loss With Regenerative Hair Therapy
Over 5% of the world’s population is affected by disabling hearing loss, a condition that is largely irreversible. One biotech company, Frequency Therapeutics, has set out to change that. The company’s scientists have found a way to help hair cells in the ear regenerate, in turn increasing a patient’s ability to hear. “[Hearing] connects people to their community and cultivates a sense of identity,” said one of the founders, Jeff Karp. “I think the potential to restore hearing will have enormous impact on society.”
So far, they have treated more than 200 patients during three clinical trials and are gearing up for another one with 124 people. Karp said he hopes this innovation will eventually make reversing hearing loss a simple, fast, and accessible procedure. Co-founder Robert Langer added: “Some of these people [in the trials] couldn’t hear for 30 years, and for the first time they said they could go into a crowded restaurant and hear what their children were saying. It’s so meaningful to them.”
this was not a good week. Down 3-5% daily.
troubling.
Did anyone "hear" anything about the prospect of royalties? The three year window will be closing pretty soon.
Intrexon is a complete disaster.
It appears so, but it's hard to believe that a row boat (GNVC) can affect a battleship (XON) that has a market cap around 150 times greater!
<< To some degree I believe this buyout is creating weakness in XON's share price as investors can purchase GNVC at barely over .297 of XON and know they may see $1 or more a share if the hearing drug moves forward in the next 3 years. >>
A look at the revised prospectus indicates that I'm wrong about other partners income, the 36 month window is applied to Novartis alone. While this is probably where the money would come from, XON could certainly benefit from other income from other GNVC partners.
Gary
While I believe their are over $200 million in milestone payments left, I believe the bulk of that number is based on annual sales post approval. It's something XON could earn, but everything above the $5 million milestone for initiating the Phase 2B Trial is doubtful, but possible in 3 years.
The key is, just how well is the drug doing. If results are great, it's not impossible that approval could come out of a Phase 2B Trial, and I've got to believe that perhaps $25 million would be paid if we gained approval. I really can't see that occurring in much less than the 3 years, so royalty money and post approval milestones are very doubtful. That said, I'm guessing at these figures, the only one I know that's been quoted is the $5 million for initiating the Phase 2B.
Based on the O/S $5 million should equate to a little over $1 per GNVC share for investors, and it's my belief they'd only be vested if they hold the stock until it's converted to XON, I hope to get confirmation that's the case. As I see it, the only other possibility would be paying shareholders prior to the time the announcement was made, and I doubt very much that it's the case.
To some degree I believe this buyout is creating weakness in XON's share price as investors can purchase GNVC at barely over .297 of XON and know they may see $1 or more a share if the hearing drug moves forward in the next 3 years.
Of course it's possible they won't reach Phase 2B in that time, I'd say the odds are about even that they will. The point is, if I can buy 337 shares of GNVC for slightly more than 100 shares of 100 shares of XON, and if I have a chance to gain roughly $350 or more for buying those shares in GNVC, instead of the shares in XON, why would I buy XON. In short, until this agreement is consummated I suspect that XON's shareprice may routinely see new 52 week lows, with GNVC dropping proportionately. If the premium for GNVC approached 50 cents, perhaps investors won't take the gamble, but last I checked, GNVC was 21 cents higher, and it's been substantially less than that when I've checked previously.
As I read the agreement, I believe it applies to all earnings over the next 36 months, not just Novartis. Should BioThera gain a partner that would bring funds into GNVC, we'd be paid, likewise if Merial started selling the FMD vaccine that utilizes our technology. In today's world $5 million isn't that much money, so it's not impossible that we'll see that a few times over as things develop. In that for every $5 million increment we see $1+ a share, it's impossible to say precisely what we might see in 3 years, but it's certainly possible that we'll see nothing. If I were looking at XON, I'd strongly consider GNVC instead, especially if the premium was 10 cents or less, which it has been many of the times I looked.
Gary
...and Legg Mason (Miller's firm) owns almost three million shares of XON...
Gary, I know a couple of things about XON. About a year ago, Bill Miller, the legendary growth stock investor said it was his favorite for the future. And, they are the one's releasing the non-viral Zika mosquitos down in Florida. They also are a big supporter of the virus that eats bacteria company, Amplifi.
Gary - I agree with your sentiment. While I am disappointed as to the value of the conversion, the upside of the hearing royalties is some comfort (a 60 month window would be better than 36, I think, though there's nothing in it to slow Novartis down in their trial efforts as they pay the money either way). XON has a market cap between $2 and $3 billion so they should have access to more than enough cash to fund development of any of our initiatives that they feel is promising. Also, as they are trading, essentially, at a 52 week low a rebound of 50% in the next several months could get us close to realizing a proper valuation.
Do you recall the (potential) value of unrealized milestone / royalty payments that could be achieved in the three year window from, say, April 2017 on? Even at 50%, this has to be a couple of bucks a share, right?
Red,
Unless I learn otherwise it's my intent to hold the GNVC stock and have it convert to XON, as I believe it's the holders in the end who'll benefit from any Novartis payment. If the hearing drug works, 36 months should certainly see the milestone for the Phase 2B Trial, but if it's truly working, approval might be the goal for that 2B Trial, and it's a possibility. As I see it, the stock is currently trading with no premium for this possible future gain, to me, it should be worth something over the .297 of XON conversion.
I want to learn more about XON, but in that I still believe that GNVC's technology is of value, if XON has the ability to finance it's products in development, this could be a long term hold worth considering. Having recently had an RSV infection, I know a vaccine that prevents it should be a big seller, likewise malaria. Perhaps XON has the resources to bring one or more of these into clinical trials, rather than GNVC simply talking about them.
Gary
It figures that XON is trading near its 52-week low. GNVC nowhere near its 52-week high. Competitive offer would be still very inexpensive.
Super low float > less than 2M.
Ultimate value of CVRs will tell you something.
And the squeeze is on like Donkey Kong!!! Lolzzz
$GNVC
Skitahowe/Gary: And our chance of hearing repair is no more. We'll never know. Been losing more than I'm winning lately.
XON takeout of GNVC in all share deal + CVRs.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intrexon-acquire-genvec-expand-industry-140000103.html
…GenVec stockholders will receive 0.297 of a share of Intrexon Common Stock in exchange for each share of GenVec common stock. This exchange ratio represents $7.00 per share of GenVec's common stock based on Intrexon's 5-day volume weighted average price as of January 23, 2017 [but only $6.56/sh based on XON’s latest price—see below].
GenVec stockholders will also receive a right to contingent consideration equal to 50% of any milestone or royalty payments received within 36 months after the closing of the transaction under GenVec's Research Collaboration and License Agreement with Novartis.
Funny how the volume doesn't work fairly in both directions.
If you look at the presentation on the GNVC site it's impressive. I don't believe this was an investor's conference, and I'm uncertain if it could have been webcast. If it could have been, I'm sorry it wasn't, but if this is as much as the company could show investors, it's impressive.
The problem, as I see it, is GNVC funding all the things they're involved in, and hopefully doing so without massive dilution. They certainly state they're open to partnering products, if such a partnership were to occur, it might answer the financial questions without any dilution, though a new partner may also want an equity interest in the company.
Gary
Guess the conference was a complete joke
And we're going down hard why? And on light volume. This chit needs to end now
This is a VERY impressive deck of slides. A market cap of under $14 million seems ridiculous.
The new presentation has changed dramatically, here's a link:
http://content.equisolve.net/genvec/media/e4ef22f2db720067a4b4170cb0a4c6c3.pdf
Hemophilia seems to be getting top billing, their is quite a bit of other new information. I'm uncertain if their will be a link to hear the presentation, or if we're just getting access to the slides, but regardless their is a lot of information here, hopefully they have the funding, or can gain the partnerships needed to bring it through the clinic.
Gary
Conference tomorrow. Expect $15 to $20.
Opened a position here as well on Friday afternoon
I really have no idea who was responsible for trading volume which exceeded the total outstanding shares by many times, but clearly calling it a Pump and Dump was appropriate. Regardless of who did it, it did help those of us who are investors looking for long term gains as it move the stock from trading in the $3 to $4 range to $5 to $7 range, a nice gain for the week.
Now that we're trading at $6+, the question is, where do we go from here. It's my belief that with any positive news double digit's are possible, even probable, especially if GNVC doesn't dilute, at least not yet.
Don't get me wrong, GNVC will eventually dilute, they'll have to. With under 3 million shares outstanding it's clear the number will increase over time, but it's my hope that it won't increase until the company's in double digits and $10 million or more will be seen from the sale of a million shares.
If I were a potential partner of GNVC's, say for their RSV vaccine, I might be willing to pay some tens of millions or more up front, but I'd also want to acquire a reasonable percentage of the company simultaneously, most if not all the shares would be new shares. Just for chatting purposes, let's say a potential partner offered $25 million for the RSV vaccine partnership, that's roughly $10 a share. If I were behind such an offer, I'd want say 30% ownership of the company based on the price before the partnership announcement was made, as of now that's under a million shares. If the share price at the time was $10, my total cost would be $35 million, but on announcing the partnership, I'd expect the stock price to go up to the $15 to $20 range, so much of the equity in my offer would be immediately returned by the appreciation in the stock. I'm not suggesting this will happen, in fact if someone really liked GNVC, I don't know how high an offer would be needed to acquire the company, but I believe it would be sufficient to put all of us ahead, a substantial multiple of where we're trading today.
Gary
Where's the Nasdaq to halt for volume manipulation?
Calling the FBI. This is extremely illegal now
1.8 million vs 17 million to break all support. R u fing kidding me?? This was manipulated so bad today
Well I wonder what tomorrow will bring us.
So it's up on multiples of the shares outstanding and starting to come in. There has to be a huge short on the part of the market makers. The shares just don't exist to deliver to the buyers. And they have to be losing money from where they had to sell stock to their customers.
So when sellers appear, the market makers hit their competitors bids to get it back down. Could even go below the 2.70 yearly low. But if it does--even though there's no news--there is an excellent possibility they could run it up again. Watch carefully.
THIS IS GETTING ILLEGAL NOW AT THIS POINT. ALL THE TIME LAST 2 trading days to only have it all wiped out on nothing!!
Unreal. The whole sector on less volume. Tons of volume to rise, puny volume to take down. So sick of this chit
Keep shorting here shorties...it's coming!!
700 k volume to bring it down 20 percent. Wtf games are we playing here mms. Real talk
Agree...I anticipated morning 'shenanigans' (I.e. Forced red), but this is going to pop soon enough...the volume continues to be strong and, as you mentioned, the float here is crazy small!!
300k shares and it's down 14 percent. 2017 is the year we need to get this computer bullchit trading system fixed.
LOOKS DECENT PM, I GRABBED SOME, WITH UNDER 2M FLOAT AND 17M VOL YEST, WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION
GNVC Jan 10 2017 8.7701 3.79 +76.11% 6.56 10.44 17,225,235
Looking at the volume here in the pre and contrasting it to the average daily, I would say at the very least, we're 'still in play'...so with the flair here, a squeeze is more than a decent possibility.
Watch QBAK, only 890 thousand in float. Hope you did well in ETRM and DNNF as well.
* * $GNVC Video Chart 01-10-17 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
Thanks, Gary. I was hoping to hear your point of view here. Nice to check in with the facts once in a while.
Good luck!
-Fritz
LoL. Closed strong either way. They couldn't keep it below 8 despite their best efforts...but agree with the 'moron' comments...lol
I don't know what triggered this move, but if you look on Yahoo you'll find a poster who's found a current article on the FMD vaccines developed by GNVC. I saw no commitment there on the part of Merial to put these vaccines on the market, but perhaps the article portends that occurring.
As I remember the Merial agreement the precise royalty rates haven't been provided, but I believe it's in the mid single digit range. If in fact Merial is going to market the improved vaccines which utilize GNVC's technology, it will lead to a revenue stream that no one has foreseen, this could certainly add substantial value to GNVC stock.
If there is no news, and if the current price simply reflects buyer sentiment it really isn't that big a stretch. Remember, $10 only reflects a $1 share price pre reverse split, and GNVC was trading for more than that before the delay imposed in the hearing trial. In spite of that delay, last time I checked the target dates for conclusion of the trial haven't changed, even though the trial was updated. This is to indicate that the delay really didn't set back the trial significantly.
I'm uncertain of the time needed between cohorts to access the safety established by the latest cohort in an escalating drug trial. It's possible the hold to access safety came during such an observation period, and didn't greatly expand on the duration of that period when the trial was permitted to continue. To my knowledge, no announcement has been made as to whether the dosage level is now at the highest planned level, I suspect it is, but don't know. As I remember the trial, after that dose is given, further dosing can be done at a level determined by the clinicians, but again I'm uncertain if this must be within the range previously tested, or if based on the observations of the clinicians, a higher dose could be permitted. Nothing forces Novartis to reveal what's happening in the trial, the next Material Event where GNVC should report is a $5 million payment for initiating a Phase 2B Trial, which probably can't occur before late this year at the earliest. This is not to say that anecdotal reports of what's happening aren't possible, but they are unpredictable.
It will be interesting to see if any information is forthcoming beyond the FMD publication I mentioned. With under 2.5 million shares outstanding, it doesn't take that many shares to constitute a 5% or greater investment in the company, so it's possible that a few Institution's will be announcing them taking a position, especially now that the share price is above $5. Perhaps it's this Institutional interest in investing in GNVC that's driven the price to where it is, but we certainly have some traders, as just today over 7 times the total shares outstanding have traded.
Gary
Followers
|
76
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
3681
|
Created
|
12/19/06
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Web-site - http://www.genvec.com/
Quote - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GNVC
Feb'10 Presentation
Recent Conf Call - http://www.genvec.com/go.cfm?do=Page.View&pid=79
GenVec, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops gene-based therapeutic drugs and vaccines. The company's gene-based therapeutic product candidates use its proprietary adenovector technology platform to deliver genes that produce medically beneficial proteins directly at the site of disease. Its lead product candidate, TNFerade Biologic, is an adenovector that contains the gene for tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), an immune system protein with anti-cancer effects. Administered by injection directly into tumors, TNFerade Biologic stimulates the production of TNF-alpha in the tumor. GenVec is developing TNFerade Biologic, which is in phase II/III clinical trial ("PACT") for use in treating advanced pancreatic cancer, in Phase II clinical trials for use in treating in rectal cancer and melanoma, and in Phase I/II clinical trail for use in treating head and neck cancer. It also develops TherAtoh to restore hearing and balance function through the regeneration of critical cells of the inner ear. Further, the company's vaccine programs utilize the adenovector technology platform and its proprietary 293-ORF6 cell line to develop vaccine candidates for infectious diseases, such as HIV, malaria, and influenza, as well as vaccine and anti-viral product candidates for the prevention and containment of foot and mouth disease. It has collaboration agreements with the Agricultural Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture; the Naval Medical Research Center; the Malaria Vaccine Initiative; the Vaccine Research Center of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Institutes of Health; and Fuso Pharmaceuticals Industries, Ltd.
TNFerade / May '09 in Cancer Gene Therapy - #1 (complete paper) -http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39895011
TNFerade / May '09 in Cancer Gene Therapy - #2 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19444305
JCO Paper - p1 trial - http://jco.ascopubs.org/cgi/reprint/22/4/592.pdf
Pancreatic Dose-Escalation p2 trial - http://www.genvec.com/download/2006%20ASGT%20SenzerOralPanCanFO.pdf
PACT Trial:
on Clincial_Trials.gov - http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00051467
ASCO'07 - http://www.genvec.com/download/ASCO%202007%20Poster%20Handout%20FINAL%20OUT.pdf
Nov'08 1st Interim Look Top-Line Results - http://www.genvec.com/download/press/PACT%20Interim%20Data_FINAL.pdf
ASCO'09 1st Interim Look - http://tinyurl.com/ASCO-PACT-09
HR = 0.753 (actual) HR = 0.753 (ASCO winning prediction)
MS benefit (nonparametric) = 0.0 months (0%)
MS benefit (parametric / log) = 2.4 months (28%)
75% percentile S(t) benefit = 7.6 months (64%)
25% percentile S(t) benefit = 2.0 months (40%)
Head+Neck pI/pII trial - http://www.genvec.com/download/ASCO2008_H&N_FINAL_OUT_28MAY08.pdf
Dendritic Vaccine & TNFerade metastatic PanCa - p2 trial - http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00868114
Prostate Cancer pI trial - http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01048151
Hearing & Balance, Novartis partnership - http://www.genvec.com/download/press/2010%2001.19%20Novartis%20Press%20Release.pdf
FMD (Foot & Mouth) Vaccine Program -
A Safer, Better Vaccine - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38646546
National Veterinary Stockpile by end 2009 - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38639522
Internatiional Drive Launched - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39894886
GNVC website FMD Vaccine presentation - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38764457
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |