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I don't know what triggered this move, but

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skitahoe Member Profile
 
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skitahoe   Tuesday, 01/10/17 03:37:24 PM
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I don't know what triggered this move, but if you look on Yahoo you'll find a poster who's found a current article on the FMD vaccines developed by GNVC. I saw no commitment there on the part of Merial to put these vaccines on the market, but perhaps the article portends that occurring.

As I remember the Merial agreement the precise royalty rates haven't been provided, but I believe it's in the mid single digit range. If in fact Merial is going to market the improved vaccines which utilize GNVC's technology, it will lead to a revenue stream that no one has foreseen, this could certainly add substantial value to GNVC stock.

If there is no news, and if the current price simply reflects buyer sentiment it really isn't that big a stretch. Remember, $10 only reflects a $1 share price pre reverse split, and GNVC was trading for more than that before the delay imposed in the hearing trial. In spite of that delay, last time I checked the target dates for conclusion of the trial haven't changed, even though the trial was updated. This is to indicate that the delay really didn't set back the trial significantly.

I'm uncertain of the time needed between cohorts to access the safety established by the latest cohort in an escalating drug trial. It's possible the hold to access safety came during such an observation period, and didn't greatly expand on the duration of that period when the trial was permitted to continue. To my knowledge, no announcement has been made as to whether the dosage level is now at the highest planned level, I suspect it is, but don't know. As I remember the trial, after that dose is given, further dosing can be done at a level determined by the clinicians, but again I'm uncertain if this must be within the range previously tested, or if based on the observations of the clinicians, a higher dose could be permitted. Nothing forces Novartis to reveal what's happening in the trial, the next Material Event where GNVC should report is a $5 million payment for initiating a Phase 2B Trial, which probably can't occur before late this year at the earliest. This is not to say that anecdotal reports of what's happening aren't possible, but they are unpredictable.

It will be interesting to see if any information is forthcoming beyond the FMD publication I mentioned. With under 2.5 million shares outstanding, it doesn't take that many shares to constitute a 5% or greater investment in the company, so it's possible that a few Institution's will be announcing them taking a position, especially now that the share price is above $5. Perhaps it's this Institutional interest in investing in GNVC that's driven the price to where it is, but we certainly have some traders, as just today over 7 times the total shares outstanding have traded.

Gary

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