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"Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid prospects of super-sized reduction in U.S. interest rates next week, while palladium has gained over 15% so far this week...."
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-rallies-to-record-high-on-us-rate-cut-optimism/amp_articleshow/113316956.cms
DD....$Gold Breaking Out vs Commodities (Top Chart) As US Dollar Weakens (Bottom Chart)
$GOLD MINERS NEWS - $Gold now has a historical breakout vs US CPI. A very bullish chart for precious metals.
$Gold Has Also Broken Out vs CPI
The inflation-adjusted $gold price having a 44-year break out has absolutely massive implications going forward…
$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST $Gold & $Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense
GOLD TRUST NEWS - $Gold now has a historical breakout vs US CPI. A very bullish chart for precious metals.
$Gold Has Also Broken Out vs CPI
The inflation-adjusted $gold price having a 44-year break out has absolutely massive implications going forward…
$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST $Gold & $Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense
GOLD INSTANTLY - Gold Standard 2.0: "Russia & China's About to Change the World Forever" - Peter Schiff
Money Sense
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 294.4k, up 3.2k.
Going into this week, gold went sideways at $2,540s-50s for six sessions. This continued this week before suffering a 1.3-percent tumble on Friday, losing 0.7 percent for the week to $2,528/ounce. This preceded last week’s spinning top.
Earlier, the metal posted a fresh record of $2,570 on the 20th. Before that, it went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. It is probable the yellow metal is headed for a breakout retest. Non-commercials do not seem much worried about a breach; they are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 31, 2024
Next Monday is Labor Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 25276 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 10 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 25198 and overhead resistance forming above at 25385. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 19th at 25704, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 11 weeks reaching a high during the week of August 19th at 25064. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 1.704% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25266 which still remains 9.651% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25704 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21978 and 26480. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 19th has exceeded the previous high of 24884 made back during the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 21 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Poised for Pullback Before Potential Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 30, 2024
• Gold completes an inside week amid consolidation, facing a potential dip to key support levels before momentum may return for a bullish continuation.
This week is set to complete an inside week for gold. Friday was the third day in a row of lower highs and gold is on track to end the day in a weak short-term position, below yesterday’s low and it is set to close in the lower quarter of the day’s range. Further, it may close today’s session below yesterday’s low.
Low Volatility Prolongs Uncertainty
Given the lack of momentum as gold has been consolidating in a tight range for 10 days, it looks like it may dip again to test support around the top of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The most recent minor swing low of 2,471 along with the 20-Day MA at 2,474 can be watched along with the top line of the triangle (purple). If the top of the triangle fails to hold as support a test of the lower 50-Day MA may occur. It is currently at 2,421 and can be watched along with an internal uptrend line.
Waiting for Follow-though After Bull Breakout
Gold trigged a breakout of a symmetrical triangle into new record high two weeks ago. And it was confirmed by a daily close near the highs of the breakout day and at a new record high. Volatility has since diminished resulting in a 10-Day price range from 2,471 to 2,532. If it can’t get going soon there is an increasing likelihood that another pullback lower may come before momentum returns.
Inside Week Sets Up
The highest price for gold this week was 2,529 and it provides an initial price level to signal an upside breakout that could see a bullish continuation. An inside week represents consolidation on that time frame. Gold is set to complete the month in a bullish position, above the halfway point of the month’s trading range. Not as strong of a bullish indication as it could be but still bullish, nonetheless.
Bullish Above 2,532
A rally above the August high of 2,532 will signal a continuation of the bull trend. There is an initial upside target at 2,566, which comes from a long-term indicator. An extended target of a large rising ABCD pattern completes there. There could be signs of resistance once reached or gold could continue higher to complete a small ABCD pattern (purple) at 2,595 and possibly reach the initial target from the symmetrical triangle pattern at 2,604.
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Gold Eyes Breakout as It Retains Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | August 29, 2024
• Gold holds firm at key support levels, consolidating recent gains and setting its sights on a possible breakout towards 2,605.
Gold continues to show strength as it retains key near-term support levels on Thursday and attempts to rally above yesterday’s high of 2,528.93. At the time of this writing, gold is traded inside Wednesday’s price range with a high of 2,528.66 and a low of 2,504. You can see on the chart how the low today bounced off support represented by the trendline drawn across the top of the recent consolidation phase, starting from the April swing high. Gold has closed above that line for eight of the last 10 days.
Holds Above Support
Key near-term support is represented by the top line of a symmetrical tringle pattern (purple). As of today, the 20-Day MA at 2,471 has converged with the top line, pointing to the same support level. The 20-Day line is trending up and will represent higher prices going forward. As it does so, it will replace the top triangle line as key near-term support.
Awaiting Further Upside Following Breakout of Symmetrical Triangle
Following a bullish breakout of the triangle nine days ago, gold has been consolidating. It quickly hit a new record high of 2,532 a couple days after the breakout and then pulled back to find support at the top line of the triangle. Since then, it has not gone far. Of course, a bull trend continuation signal will be indicated on a breakout above 2,532. If another pullback to again test support around the top of the triangle occurs first, it would not be surprising given the obvious bull trend. Sometimes an obvious price pattern fails to follow through as anticipated.
Triangle Indicates 2,605 Potential Target
An upside breakout will have gold heading towards several potential targets where resistance may be seen. Basic analysis of the symmetrical triangle pattern indicates a minimum possible target of 2,605. However, there are lower interim targets as well that could be significant. The primary price level below the triangle target is 2,566.
It is derived from a long-term pattern that completes a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 161.8% ratio. In other words, the CD leg of the advance is 161.8% of the first AB leg up. The first leg up begins from the September 2022 swing low and the second starts from the October 2023 swing low. A harmonic relationship between the two upswings of the pattern occurs at the target.
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Gold Holds Above Key Support, Poised for Potential Upside Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 28, 2024
• Consolidating near record highs, gold awaits a breakout above 2,532 to confirm its bullish trend and target higher levels in the coming weeks.
Gold continues to consolidate near recent record highs on Wednesday, as it awaits an improvement in demand that can take it higher. The recent record high of 2,532 is the key price level to watch to signal an upside breakout and bull trend continuation. Gold remains in a relatively tight consolidation range from 2,471 to 2,532, above important support. The range follows a clear bull breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern on August 16, which was followed by a new record high.
Signs of Strength Remain
Following the bull breakout gold pulled back and successfully tested support around the top trendline of the triangle pattern with last Thursday’s low of 2,494. Further, yesterday’s session saw a new record daily closing high for gold, a sign of strength. Moreover, the rising purple 20-Day MA is about to converge with the top triangle line and further strengthen the potential significance of the top line that now represents potential support. As long as gold stays above the top triangle line and the 20-Day MA it remains bullish with an expectation for eventual new record highs.
Price Range Evident in Weekly Chart
The weekly chart confirms the price range noted above from the daily chart. It also reflects the tight consolidation pattern that has lasted eight days including today. On the weekly chart (not shown) last week’s high of 2,532 and low of 2,471 show the same price range. Although this week is not yet over, it is an inside week so far.
Daily and Higher Time Frames are Bullish
Given the development of an uptrend in both the long-term and short-term time frames, including the past five weeks, gold is expected to eventually head to new record highs. A decisive rise above 2,532 will trigger a continuation of the uptrend and the breakout of the symmetrical triangle. There are a variety of potential initial upside targets beginning with 2,543, 2,566, and a range from 2,595 to 2,605. The higher price level is the target from measuring the symmetrical triangle pattern.
Since gold remains in consolidation it may yet decline to below the 20-Day MA and top triangle line to test support at lower prices. If it does a test of the lower boundary of the triangle is possible. Within the range is potentially significant support represented by the 50-Day MA at 2,414.
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Gold Poised for Upside Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | August 27, 2024
• Gold's bullish momentum continues, holding above $2,504, with key targets at $2,543, $2,566, and a triangle target of $2,605.
Gold continued to hover above support on Tuesday represented by the top trendline (blue) that covers the recent consolidation phase. Today’s low of 2,504 successfully tested the line again and it was followed by a bounce. That is a sign of strength in a developing uptrend, particularly relative to the prior pullback, which found support at the top boundary line of a symmetrical triangle (purple) consolidation pattern three days ago.
Gold is set to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s price range, at the time of this writing. Therefore, it may finish the day with a bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern. And it may end today at its second highest daily closing price on record. Yesterday’s closing price of 2,518 is the current record daily close.
Grinding Higher
The path of least resistance for gold continues to be up. It triggered a bullish breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern on August 16 and has been largely consolidated since and slowly showing sign of strengthening. Also, notice that the purple 20-Day MA has been rising and is close to breaking out above the top triangle line (purple). The orange 50-Day MA converged with the internal uptrend line on July 25 (C) and it continues to track the trendline closely. This tells us to pay attention to these moving averages as gold progresses into higher prices.
Triangle Target Points to 2,605
There are several initial upside targets to pay attention to. But let’s start with the higher initial target marked by the measuring objective from the symmetrical triangle pattern. As with most consolidation patterns, we can measure the height of the pattern once fully formed, then add that distance in price to the breakout level. For gold, that provides a minimum anticipated target derived from the pattern at 2,605. Moreover, there are two earlier target levels to be aware of, at 2,543 and 2,566.
Support Above 24.71 Needs to be Maintained
Regardless of how bullish the chart looks for gold there is always the potential for a pullback before attempting higher prices. Near-term support is at last week’s low of 24.71. That is also a minor pullback that makes up part of the rising short-term trend of higher swing lows and higher swing highs that starts from the July swing low.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 24, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 291.3k, up 24k.
Gold trudged higher to yet another record in a spinning top week. The metal rose 0.3 percent to $2,546/ounce, with an intraday high of $2,570 on the 20th.
The yellow metal has gone sideways at $2,540s-50s the last six sessions. A possible breakout in the sessions ahead will open the door toward this week’s high, and that will decide which way gold goes near-term.
Earlier, the metal went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. Gold bugs should be fine as long as this breakout remains intact.
In the meantime, non-commercials are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.
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Gold Market Update - MASSIVE PARABOLIC SLINGSHOT MOVE STARTING......
By: Clive Maund | August 19, 2024
Because gold has not done all that much since its April – May peaks many investors are unaware of the magnitude of the upleg that has begun so the purpose of this update is to make it crystal clear why this upleg is destined to be so massive, for both fundamental and technical reasons.
With regard to the fundamental reasons why gold’s still nascent major upleg is set to be so enormous, Doug Casey has just done an excellent and timely job of setting it all out in Gold’s Next Explosive Move which relieves me of this task, freeing me up to concentrate on the technical aspects, although I may add a few observations of my own.
The first and by far the most important point to be made in this update is that, taking the inflation of the past decade or so into account, gold had been stuck in a gigantic trading range until as recently as the Spring of this year that dates all the way back to its 2011 peak which capped its great 2000’s bull market as we can see on the long-term chart below that goes all the way back to the start of the millenium on the 1st January 2000. Observe the skewed grey shaded support and resistance zones marking the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range – skewed to take account of inflation during the years that this range formed. While various commentators made a big deal of gold’s nominal new highs in 2020 and late last year, these were not new highs when inflation was taken into account – real new highs have occurred just since the Spring of this year. It is thus clear that the decisive breakout that occurred this Spring was of momentous importance as it has ushered in what promises to be gold’s most spectacular bull market to date which is hardly surprising considering what is going on in the world with money creation having gone parabolic that is set to drive rampant inflation trending in the direction of hyperinflation and attendant extreme currency devaluation and the proliferation of war partly as an act of desperation as a gambit to deflect the public’s attention away from the real causes of the ballooning global economic crisis which is of course the past reckless actions of Central Banks, none more so than the Federal Reserve. In short we are looking at a perfect storm that will lead to gold doing a “moonshot”. Notice that this chart is free from unnecessary and distracting clutter like proliferations of trendlines and silly overcomplicated wave counts, although it is worth clarifying that the giant trading range has taken the form of a “Cup & Handle Continuation Pattern” as drawn on the chart which parallels a similar pattern on the long-term silver chart.
True gold aficionados will probably like this chart very much – please feel free to print out a large scale version of it to place on the wall, and you may of course want to frame it.
Armed with the understanding gleaned from gold’s very long-term chart we can put the action of recent years into context. So on the 7-year chart we can see that the reason it kept “hitting a wall” at $2100, which started with the 2020 peak, was that it was bumping up against the top of the giant upsloping range that we delineated on the very long-term chart, and waiting for things to get bad enough for it to break higher into the next major upleg, which it has now clearly done. The reason that the gold price spluttered sideways over the past several months is that it stopped to consolidate the March – April breakout which resulted in an extremely overbought condition as shown by its MACD indicator. Now that this has unwound it is starting higher again and as it advances away from the trading range, the rate of advance is likely to accelerate.
The shorter-term 7-month chart is very useful as it helps us to appreciate that the new upleg that is following on from the consolidation into June – July is now well underway with the price making new highs, but is still in its earliest stages with the parabolic uptrend shown set to slingshot gold higher. Everything on this chart supports continued and accelerating advance – the new highs, the moving averages being in bullish alignment, the strong On-balance Volume line also making new highs and improving momentum with the MACD showing that there is plenty of room for continued gains.
Investors can therefore buy gold and most gold-related investments with confidence.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 24, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25463 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Presently, this market has been rising for 9 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25704 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 23274. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 24966.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 25351 and overhead resistance forming above at 25483. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 19th at 25704, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25704 to 25064. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25704 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 25704. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 25370 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Gold Nears New Record Highs as Bullish Momentum Builds
By: Bruce Powers | August 23, 2024
• Gold's bullish breakout points to new record highs, targeting 2,543 and beyond, with support holding at 2,471.
Gold is on track to end Friday with a higher daily high and higher low as a breakout above Thursday’s high of 2,515 was triggered. The high today was 2,518 but it is not yet clear whether gold will end the day above that price level. Nevertheless, it continues to show strength as it trades near the highs of the day. This provides a bullish setup off the first test of support at yesterday’s low of 2,471. What is telling is that support was seen at the top line of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern following a bullish breakout last Friday.
Rally Above Friday’s High of 2,518 Confirms Strength
A bullish signal will be generated on a rally above today’s high of 2,518 and set the stage for a rally into new record highs. Gold hit a new record high of 2,532 last week. The advance has the potential to continue gold’s long-term uptrend once that record high is exceeded.
Since the bull breakout of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern last week gold is in a position to continue to rise. It is coming up out of a rising consolidation pattern that has been forming since the April swing high of 2,431. Notice the sharp advance before the consolidation phase. Gold has the potential to see a similar rise once it gets traction and begins to clear the triangle pattern.
First Upside Target of 2,543
The next upside target for gold is around 2,543, which will complete a rising ABCD pattern (purple). Since that price level is so close to the current record high of 2,532, it may be easily surpassed. Next up will be a long-term ascending ABCD pattern target where the CD leg of the advance is extended by 161.8% of the AB leg of the pattern.
The measurement begins from the September 2022 swing low. Subsequently, there is a price zone from 2,595 to 2,605, derived from a 127.2% extended ABCD target from the smaller rising ABCD pattern and a target from measuring the symmetrical triangle formation, respectively.
Support at 2,471 Needs to Hold
Of course, surprises happen, and a deeper retracement may yet occur before a breakout to new record highs. For example, if yesterday’s low of 2,471 fails to hold as support, gold will likely dip to at least the 20-Day MA at 2,452 before it finds support.
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Gold Tests Key Support at Top of Symmetrical Triangle
By: Bruce Powers | August 22, 2024
• Gold pulls back to 2,471, testing key support at the triangle's top boundary. A reversal higher could continue the uptrend towards 2,532.
Gold pulled back to a low of 2,471 on Thursday before finding support and bouncing intraday. The decline successfully tested support at the top boundary line of the symmetrical triangle pattern as price was rejected to the upside. A bullish breakout of the triangle consolidation pattern triggered last Friday. Even though the price of gold advanced further to a high of 2,532 this week there was a notable decline in momentum, subsequently leading to today’s pullback.
Typical Behavior of Price in an Uptrend
It is typical of an uptrend to pull back to test prior resistance areas as support following a bullish breakout. The ideal maximum pullback is to the top boundary line. If gold can reverse higher from here it should be able to continue to progress its uptrend, initially with a breakout above 2,532. This is typical for most breakouts.
The bull breakout of the symmetrical triangle occurred relatively early in its formation. That showed strength of the breakout and suggests support from the pattern may not be as strong as a breakout closer to the apex of the triangle would be. Nevertheless, the breakout is technically viable and points to higher prices for gold.
Lower is the 20-Day MA at 2,446
The top boundary line of the triangle will continue to mark an area of interest for buyers. Notice that given its declining slope the price represented by the line will be lower as we go forward in time. Nevertheless, a decline below the line will have gold targeting potential support at the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,446. Lower down and closer to the bottom of the triangle is the 50-Day MA at 2,399.
Weekly support was seen last week at a low 2,424 and it could represent support again if it is approached. There are also a couple of prior swing high levels that have been added to the chart with right horizontal black line. They are at 2,450 from May 20 and 2,431 from the swing high on April 12.
Below 2,446 Hints at Failure of Breakout
It should also be understood that the center horizontal of the triangle is around 2,446. That price level will have significance if approached as a drop below it puts the bull breakout of the triangle at risk of failure. A decline through the bottom boundary line would confirm a failure of the bull move.
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$10,000 in Gold (GLD)
By: Bespoke Investment Group | August 22, 2024
In today's "$10,000 in..." series, we're taking a look at the gold ETF (GLD). The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) began trading nearly 20 years ago in November 2004. It marked the first time that investors could easily allocate funds to gold in a brokerage account.
When GLD began trading on 11/18/2004, it had total assets of just under $600 million after its first day of trading. By the end of 2004, AUM had more than doubled up to more than $1.3 billion.
Today, GLD has more than $68 billion in AUM. At its last quarterly filing, it held more than 26 million ounces of physical gold valued at more than $62 billion.
So what would a hypothetical $10,000 investment in the GLD ETF on its release date in November 2004 be worth today? As shown below, $10,000 would now be worth roughly $52,000. That's an annualized return of about 8.73%. Not bad for a piece of metal, right?
How does that $10k investment in GLD when it began trading nearly 20 years ago compare to something like the stock market? If we use the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy for US large-cap stocks, a $10,000 investment in SPY on the same day that GLD began trading back in November 2004 with dividends re-invested would be worth about $68,725 today. That's an annualized return of roughly 10.2%, or about 1.5 percentage points better than GLD annually. You can see how both GLD and SPY got to their current levels in the chart below.
As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results!
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Gold New Record High, Targets Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | August 20, 2024
• Gold hit a new record high of 2,532, signaling a strong uptrend. Further gains are expected, with targets at 2,566 and beyond.
Gold reached a new record high of 2,532 on Tuesday before pulling back intraday. A close above the halfway point of the day’s range at 2,514 today should be a stronger indication than a daily close below it. Gold is bullish on the daily chart and higher time frames as it just broke out of a base covering several months last Friday. Today’s advance is a third day up with higher daily lows and higher daily highs, indicating the progression of an uptrend. A bullish breakout was triggered today by a rally above yesterday’s high of 2,509. Yesterday was an inside day and represented a rest and consolidation day.
Next Target is 2,543
The day’s high of 2,532 was shy of the next higher target level at 2,543, which is an initial target from a rising ABCD pattern. Extended targets from the pattern include the 127.2% extension at 2,595, and the 161.8% extended target at 2,661. Other potential targets to watch for potential resistance on the way up include a 161.8% extended target at 2,566. That is from a long-term rising ABCD pattern that begins from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615. The second leg up begins from the October 2023 swing low.
Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Following-through
Last week’s breakout to new record highs for gold was accompanied by a breakout of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Calculating a measuring objective from the pattern provides a potential initial target of 2,605 (red arrows). That is very close to the 127.2% extended target of 2,595 and therefore they should be considered together as a price range.
Long Term Target at 2,715
Longer-term targets are higher than the 161.8% extended ABCD target at 2,661. There is a long-term target starting with 2,715. That price level is an extended retracement from the decline off the 1,921 high from September 2011. The extension is 200% of the decline. It is interesting that a long-term measured move based on percentage performance also points to that price zone giving it added potential significance. Long-term measured provide potential more significant price levels. And this makes it more likely they will eventually be encountered eventually. The long-term monthly chart is supportive of such a scenario as well.
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Gold $GLD - Want to see it pop the Log Chart 'Flag'...
By: Sahara | August 19, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Want to see it pop the Log Chart 'Flag'...
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$GLD Weekly secondary consolidation breakout
By: Theta Warrior | August 18, 2024
• $GLD Weekly secondary consolidation breakout.
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Gold into the 28th
By: Marty Armstrong | August 18, 2024
Remember that the resistance starts really at the 2573 level, with Friday reaching 2548.3 from a Low of 2488.2 and closing at 2537.8. But things are looking to be a bit choppy this week, with the potential of rising into the 28th. It appears that when gold declines, silver will gain ground on the ratio. That needs to take place for the real breakout.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 17, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 267.3k, up 28.5k.
Gold rallied 2.6 percent this week to a new closing high of $2,538/ounce, with an intraday high of $2,548.
Earlier, the metal went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. As long as gold bugs are able to defend this level, the ball remains in their court.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 17, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25378 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 9 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25483 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 23274. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 24966.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 25173.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 12th at 25483, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25483 to 24627. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25483 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 25483. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 24996 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Gold New Highs and Future Projections
By: Bruce Powers | August 16, 2024
• Gold's bullish breakout to $2,506 signals continued upward momentum, with key targets at $2,543 and $2,605, as the market eyes further gains.
Gold broke out to a new record high on Friday following a failed attempt on Wednesday. Momentum was strong and remains so as trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. It has traded as high as 2,506 and will likely close strong for the week thereby confirming a continuation of the long-term bull trend. Given that this is the first day of the breakout a continuation next week seems likely.
Breakout of Symmetrical Triangle
Today’s advance triggered a breakout from a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that has been forming for about a month. A strong burst of upside momentum was seen on the move out of the triangle, and it is what should support improving demand from market participants over the weekend.
Follow-through will be key from here. Does gold pullback first before rising above this week’s high and staying there? Or is a pullback to test the breakout zone as support to happen first.
Triangle Targets 2,605
As for targets, the measuring objective from the triangle pattern is estimated to be 2,605. That’s derived by taking the distance in price from the low to high of the pattern and then projecting it up from the breakout price level (red arrows). However, on the way there the next target is identified around 2,543. That’s where a rising ABCD pattern completes an initial target. The secondary target is a 127.2% extension at 2,595. Notice that it is close to the triangle target and therefore the two price levels can be watched as a price range.
Long-Term Analysis Points to 2,566
In between those two target areas is a long-term target at 2,566. It comes from a large rising ABCD pattern that starts from the lows in September 2022. The CD leg of the pattern begins from the lows in October 2023 and the target is a 161.8% extension of the AB leg of the pattern. The most recent long-term target was hit around the prior record high in July. Just a reminder that these levels deserve to be attended to. Also, they fail and that is also telling about the dynamics of the market at the time. Of course, there are also higher potential targets in gold but first the initial targets need to be reached.
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$GLD - Price action on Gold has been a technical masterpiece
By: TrendSpider | August 16, 2024
• Price action on Gold has been a technical masterpiece. $GLD.
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Gold Failed Breakout Signals Possible Extended Consolidation
By: Bruce Powers | August 15, 2024
• Gold’s pullback continues, testing key support levels after a failed breakout attempt at 2,480, with the market eyeing a potential bullish reversal.
Gold ended Wednesday with a bearish reversal day following a rally to 2,480. Selling pressure then led to a pullback and a weak close in the lower half of the day’s trading range. The pullback continued today, Thursday, with a new lower daily low of 2,432. The 2,480-price level was the area of resistance near the 2,484-record high. It marked the initial 100% target for a long-term rising ABCD pattern that began in August 2018.
Failed Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Awaits Another Try
Yesterday’s rally was a failed attempt to break up from a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern forming near the top of the bull trend. Although another bull breakout from the pattern towards new record highs may occur, it would also not be surprising to see gold spend more time within the triangle pattern first.
Building up energy in demand during further consolidation may better prepare it to challenge the current record high and sustain a rally to new highs. This means that a test of the lower boundary of the pattern is a possibility. Even if it is not reached, it increases the chance for a deeper pullback.
Key Near-term Support at 20-Day MA (2,418)
If gold can retain support at or above the 20-Day MA, it will be showing greater strength than a dip to the bottom of the triangle. It is currently 2,418. Close by is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which can be watched along with the 20-Day line as a price zone. The 50-Day MA at 2,380 can be watched for possible support along with the lower boundary line.
Rising ABCD Pattern has 2,543 in Site
Rather than stay longer within the triangle consolidation, gold could break out sooner following a minor pullback or consolidation. A decisive rally above Wednesday’s high of 2,480 will trigger a bullish breakout. The prior record high of 2,484 should then be easily exceeded if the advance is sustained. If a bull breakout is sustained, then the first new high target is shown on the chart at 2,543. That pivot completes an initial target for a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the June 26 swing low of 2,294 (A). For future reference, the estimated minimum target from the symmetrical triangle formation is 2,605.
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Gold $GLD - Holding that Upwrds Sloping 'Flag' I have been showing (Gold)...
By: Sahara | August 16, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Holding that Upwrds Sloping 'Flag' I have been showing (Gold).
Still the pot'l for a B/Test of that 'Broadening' Plot until we B/out the 'Flag'. I have adjusted to show the 12/20 MA's (Mustard Blue) as Wkly. As these need to remain below price & Bullishly Aligned...
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Gold Retreats from 2,480 and Falls Back into Consolidation
By: Bruce Powers | August 14, 2024
• Gold faces resistance at 2,480, triggering a potential pullback as market participants await a possible bullish breakout to new record highs.
Gold tried to breakout higher earlier in Wednesday’s trading session but quickly encountered resistance at 2,480. The recent record high last month was 2,484. Given today’s bearish reaction following a rise above the previous trend high of 2,477 from yesterday, it looks like a deeper pullback or consolidation may occur prior to another attempt to begin to challenge the 2,484 high.
Today’s pullback triggered a daily bearish reversal on a drop below yesterday’s low of 2,458. At the time of this writing gold is on track to end the day weak, in the lower third of the day’s price range.
First Support Zone is 20-Day MA
It looks like a test of the 20-Day MA as support is likely. Currently, the line is at 2,418. Possible support from last Friday’s low is nearby at 2,417 and can be watched for signs of support along with the 20-Day line. Although a new trend high was reached, signaling a possible breakout of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, it has failed.
Therefore, it is possible that gold spends more time within the triangle before another breakout attempt. Given the characteristics of the pattern a test of support at the lower boundary of the pattern may be possible. It is marked by a trendline and the 50-Day MA. The 50-Day is currently at 2,378 and marks a similar price area as the trendline.
Market Designed to Frustrate
The potential bullish breakout to new record highs for gold is being watched by many market participants. It is no secret that gold broke out of a long-term basing pattern in March and continued to strengthen. The 2,480-price level was a target established from a large rising ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 swing low of 1,160 and the second leg up started from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615. Price symmetry between the two swings occurred at 2,480. And that price level was tested again today.
Initial New High Target of 2,566
If a bullish breakout occurs instead of further consolidation there is an initial near-term target for gold around 2,566. That would complete an extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began from the September 2022 swing low. The pattern is extended to the 161.8% target at 2,566. Since it is a relatively long-term pattern resistance may be seen around the price area.
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Gold Consolidates Near Record High, Eyes Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 13, 2024
• Gold's advance faces resistance at 2,477, with bullish consolidation hinting at a potential breakout. Key support levels remain strong, bolstering the bullish case.
Gold found resistance at a new high of 2,477 for the advance on Tuesday. Resistance was seen around the top boundary line resistance of a developing symmetrical triangle formation that was established following the 2,459-swing low reached last week. The significance of that swing low is highlighted by the convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,366 and the 50-Day MA at 2,366 in a similar price zone.
Plus, the top line for a long-term bullish trend channel points to the same area of price. It parallels an uptrend line starting from the November 2022 low. Notice that each of the two most recent swing lows successfully tested support at that line.
Pullback Before Breakout to New High?
Two general scenarios look more likely as of today. Monday’s high of 2,473 first tested the top triangle line as resistance. It was confirmed today with a retest of the line and a narrow range day. Notice that gold closed strong yesterday, near the highs of the day and at its highest daily closing price ever. This is bullish behavior for the intermediate view.
Gold may continue to trace out the triangle consolidation for a while longer or trigger a decisive upside breakout. Further consolidation becomes possible if today’s low of 2,458 is broken to the downside. The lower support area of the triangle pattern would then become a target. But first there is potential support around the 20-Day MA, now at 2,418.
Minor Rest Before Breakout?
Alternatively, a bull breakout occurs prior to a pullback off today’s highs or following a minor pullback and/or consolidation period. The key resistance level is the record high of 2,484 from July 17. That price level is also the top of the triangle pattern and a rise above it would further confirm a bullish breakout of the pattern.
The initial trigger is on a rally above the top boundary line and today’s high of 2,477 is a proxy for that line for the time being. Given the potential bullish reaction to a new high in gold it seems likely to see some degree of a pullback or consolidation prior to gold taking a new shot at the record high. The price of gold has been rising since last Thursday’s low and demand may need a little time to build prior to a successful attempt at a new record high.
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$GLD Dollar weak, Gold strong
By: TrendSpider | August 12, 2024
• Dollar weak, Gold strong. $GLD
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 10, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 238.7k, down 7.9k.
The week produced a bit for both the bulls and bears. In a volatile session Monday, gold fell as low as $2,404 and remained under prior resistance at $2,450s the next two sessions but only for gold bugs to show up in the remaining two sessions to end the week up 0.15 percent to $2,473/ounce.
Gold is under last Friday’s record $2,488 but at the same time closed above $2,450s. Near-term, odds favor the bulls, with the caveat that non-commercials with sizable long exposure continue to reduce their holdings, albeit at a measured pace.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 10, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24734 and is trading up about 19% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market has been rising for 9 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25225 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 23274. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 24730.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 24595 and overhead resistance forming above at 25225. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 29th at 25225, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 8 weeks reaching a high during the week of July 29th at 24145. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 4.705% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 24038 which still remains 4.322% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken as even the stocastics are weakening especially since last week was a highImmediately, this decline from the last high established the week of July 29th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 23826 made back during the week of June 17th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of May 20th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23957. Additional support is to be found at 23274. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Gold Price Forecast: Maintains Strength Within Consolidation
By: Bruce Powers | August 9, 2024
• Gold consolidates within a symmetrical triangle, maintaining support at the 20-Day MA, as it approaches critical resistance levels.
Gold stalled its advance on Friday but is on track of maintaining support around the 20-Day MA. A bullish breakout of the 20-Day line triggered on Thursday. Today, gold traded in a narrow range but successfully tested support at the 20-Day MA with the day’s low of 2,417. This a minor bullish sign as prior resistance is being tested as support, which is part of the progression of an uptrend. However, since gold is bouncing within a larger consolidation pattern the potential upside continuation of the bounce is a question.
Maintains Strength from Thursday’s Rally
There has only been one strong up day since the 2,364-swing low from Monday. Today’s narrow range shows a clear slowdown in momentum. Whether momentum continues to slow or not remains to be seen. At the time of this writing gold is on track to end the week at its second highest weekly closing price historically. That is a sign of strength.
Also, the weekly chart is set to end with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. This is a more powerful pattern when occurring at a swing low and when not inside a consolidation range. However, it does indicate underlying strength for this week. Nonetheless, gold is heading up into a potentially significant resistance zone highlighted by the double tops of 2,478 and 2,484, the record high.
Heading Towards This Week’s High of 2,459
A breakout above today’s high of 2,437 will provide the next bullish signal with a target at Monday’s high of 2,459, which is also a weekly high. Notice that from Tuesday onward gold traded inside the range from Monday. This has characteristics of price consolidation as this week’s price action is contained within support and resistance from last week.
Monday’s low was at 2,364. As of that low gold has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Given its positioning near the top of the trend it looks like an upside breakout is the most likely resolution. But this means that gold may consolidation for a while longer as it fills the triangle
50-Day Line Key Support
The 50-Day MA has converged with the lower line of the pattern and it sits at 2,371 current and marks support along with the trendline. Since a symmetrical triangle can break either direction, the potential for a downside move exists. If that occurs the first lower target is 2,347, which will complete a falling ABCD pattern.
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Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi https://cnbc.com/2024/04/16/gold-is-shining-bright-like-a-diamond-and-could-hit-3000-says-citi-.html $GLD
Gold Rallies to 3-Day High, Eyes Key Resistance Levels
By: Bruce Powers | August 8, 2024
• Gold rallies to a three-day high of 2,426, breaking above the 20-Day MA, with potential resistance near 2,450, though consolidation may continue.
Gold rallied to a three-day high of 2,426 on Thursday and broke out above the 20-Day MA. It continues to show signs of strength as trading remains near the highs of the day. If gold stays strong into the close the day will end above the 20-Day line, which is now at 2,415. Today’s advance follows the successful test of support on Monday at the combination of a lower consolidation trendline, the 50-Day MA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Whether today’s strength is a precursor to an eventual test of resistance at recent highs, starting with 2,478, remains to be seen as trading has occurred inside Monday’s wide range day.
Looks to be Heading To 2,450
Given the strong move today with a wide range green candlestick pattern, gold looks to be heading towards the 2,450 prior swing high. A little above there is Monday’s high of 2,459. Regardless of short-term strength gold is showing signs of further consolidation near the highs of its rising trend. Although a bullish breakout into new highs may occur, it looks more likely that gold is not done testing support near the lows of consolidation. If correct, this would mean the current advance is likely to encounter resistance and turn back down.
50-Day MA is Key Indicator
The 50-Day MA is currently at 2,369 and it was successfully tested as support on Monday with a low of 2,364. A little below there is a more significant price level given how that swing low fits into the larger price structure. Nevertheless, a drop below 2,369 shows weakening, and more significantly if gold falls below 2,364.
However, there is an initial lower target from a falling ABCD pattern at 2,347, while the lower of the three-month consolidation phase is around 2,312. The 2,312 level is the 127.2% extended target. Since it lines up with the trendline rising from the May 3 swing low, it should be given attention if gold weakens on a move below this week’s low of 2,364.
Evolving Symmetrical Triangle May Dominate Price Action
Having said that, an alternative scenario is the gold continues to consolidate near highs for a while longer. It may continue to test high and low resistance and support as a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern evolves. Initial signs of the pattern are present now, but boundary lines are left of the chart for now.
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Gold Risk of Lower Prices Remains
By: Bruce Powers | August 7, 2024
• Trading between the 20-Day and 50-Day MA, gold faces potential breakdown risks, with bearish targets at 2,347 and 2,311.
Gold continued to consolidate on Wednesday as it has been trading between resistance at the 20-Day MA and support at the 50-Day MA this week. This indicates that downward pressure remains and puts at risk a breakdown through the 50-Day line. The 20-Day line is currently at 2,415 while the 50-Day MA is at 2,379.
A drop through the 50-Day line increases the chance for a drop below the recent swing low at 2,353. If the 2,353 level fails to maintain support, then a declining ABCD pattern will be triggered. Note that the initial target from that pattern is 2,347, while a secondary target is 2,311.
Weekly Breakdown Triggered
Earlier this week a bearish breakdown from last week’s low of 2,370 triggered. A daily close below that price level will confirm weakness indicated by the breakdown. Gold has been trading within a large consolidation pattern since the initial new record high of 2,431 was hit in the first half of April. Therefore, it would be normal for it to test support around the bottom of the pattern before the retracement is done. If this scenario plays out the extended target for the falling ABCD pattern is at 2,312. That level is close to the bottom trendline for the consolidation pattern.
Strong Support Starts at 2,294
Strong support is then at earlier swing lows of 2,294 to 2,287. Therefore, a decline below the top number will signal weakening and a decline below 2,287 will confirm a bearish breakdown from the consolidation top. Interestingly, by reaching the 2,312-target zone, the decline in the current retracement will better match to two earlier retracements that saw declines of 6.7% and 6.3%.
Weekly Trend Indicator May be Challenged
It is also interesting to see that the 20-Week MA marks support slightly below this week’s low at 2,353. The line has marked dynamic support for the uptrend since mid-October 2023. Therefore, a decline below this week’s low could lead to more aggressive selling than has been seen this week so far. The downside target in that case could be around the internal uptrend line. There is a 161.8% extended target for the falling ABCD pattern at 2,266, and that can be used as a proxy for the trendline, for now.
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Gold Bearish Reversal Pattern Points to Downward Pressure
By: Bruce Powers | August 6, 2024
• Gold trades within a rising trend channel, testing key supports while resistance remains at 2,418; potential downside targets include 2,347 and 2,312.
Gold traded inside day on Tuesday following a drop that successfully tested support at the 50-Day MA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone earlier in trading session. Resistance was seen at today’s high of 2,418, which was a successful test of resistance at the 20-Day MA. Gold is on track to close lower for the day and in the bottom third of the day’s trading range. Further tests of support around the 50-Day MA are possible and a breakdown below the 50-Day line remains a risk.
Stuck Within Consolidation Channel
Since May gold has been tracing out a rising trend channel during a consolidation phase that followed an initial 22.5% rally. The latest attempt to breakout to the upside was met with resistance at 2,478 (C) thereby generating a lower swing high. That swing high marks the end of the BC leg of a falling ABCD pattern. The first downside target for the pattern is 2,347.
However, since that target is close to the lower boundary of the trend channel, it looks likely that it may be tested as support before the bearish correction is complete. The lower line is joined by an uptrend line drawn from the October swing low. Moreover, the 127.2% Fibonacci extended target from the ABCD pattern completes at 2,312. It provides a specific price that can be watched along with viewing the trendlines.
Lower Price at Risk of Being Tested as Support
A rising trend channel can have risk like that of a rising wedge. The rising wedge is a bearish continuation or reversal pattern, depending on where it forms within the larger pattern. Similarly, there is the potential for a rising channel to break down instead of up. As the equity markets have begun to retrace the prior advance with higher conviction, gold has remained relatively strong, above its 50-Day line and still contained within the rising trend channel pattern.
Therefore, although it may not break down from the channel, it does remain at risk of testing the lower area of the channel as support. Further, gold triggered a bearish weekly reversal during Monday’s selloff as it fell below last week’s low of 2,478. A daily close below that price level confirms the reversal.
Gold Turns Short-term Bullish Above 2,418
On the upside, a bullish daily signal will be triggered on a rise above today’s high of 2,418. That would also put gold back above its 20-Day line and open the door to a test of the 2,478-swing high.
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