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To a degree I guess you are correct. I would have hoped the board would have been more diligent and driven by facts and data . That is of course unless Foley told them that the 280 number was not reachable and the stock would get hammered after the street found out ?
Just the opposite, I think Foley has been consistent in his leadership and decision making process. He should have been replaced when the sales strategy miserably failed.
That said the decision to accept the offer from Crown was approved by the BOD. If the 280MM was doable in 2024 why would the board approve this? Was the entire board incompetent as well ?
Why not wait. Guessing we go down, not up.
I think the odd of this deal happening is going lower and lower as days pass, especially, if no filing regarding updated tender start date.
I am buying some shares
The million question I have is , If RVNCfan is tracking the conversion to Daxiffy correctly why in the world would Foley and the board of directors take such a low ball offer ?
I've been watching it from last year. at that moment, daxxify was way more slower versus jeuveau.
Q1 got better you know lowering price and couponing worked well, which showed on the instagram hashtag quantity as well.
It meant improved daxxify delivery on the first quarter. I mean, vial-wise.
In the second quarter, the pace seemed to be the same compared to jeuveau.
With that, daxxify got quite great second quarter earnings.
So yeah, this number has been wonderful tool to estimate daxxify earnings for sure.
Nice info. How accurate did your data match the actual numbers in Q1 and Q2?
that means Instagram accumulated hashtag number
would you care explaining what Y-axis represents? Thanks.
The reason I still cannot leave RVNC.
Finally, I've fixed my ihub problem and now I could upload the trends of daxxify.
Look at the trend as below.
You guys all know Jeuveau has been the fastest growing toxin in the market.
In comparison, Daxxify is quite well outpacing Jeuveau over time.
let's go daxxi!
Moreover, entering third qurater it's been more obviously showing better trend.
Will you never give it a break?
Yes familiar with them. Versa has become pretty popular. Direct competitor.
what a mess, all these is telling us is Foley was rushing to do a deal... really wonder why he was in such as rush giving $RNVC's cash position and up tick in sales.
why not wait till CD sales kick in? why not wait for China approval and sales? Why not try to explore selling commercial rights to raise cash?
I don't mind the deal failed...better if Crown end up paying up $42mm, they should help bridging the funding gap.
I wonder if they want to be the Canadian distributors for Daxxify?
agree with your last sentence Dew.
Prolennium is a private Canadian manufacturer of an HA filler called Versa that is known for high HA concentration and adding substantial volume at very competitive price. They have been in the market some 5 to 6 years I believe. I would guess they generate less than $100M a year in US filler sales.
They are definitely a competitor to Teoxane/RHA. I would view this rumor as unlikely.
I can't imagine that a tender offer would have been initiated under legal supervision from both sides which threatened the Teoxane agreement. Furthermore: Teoxane is likely generating $50M a year in sales to Revance and those sales are growing and taking marketshare from Allergan and Galderma in a competitive filler market. Teoxane can't be disappointed with the agreement and definitely wouldn't want to walk away from this cash flow.
Therefore, the only other delays I can think of is that Crown is not confident in being able to get the 50% of shares necessary to complete the acquisition or that a competitive bid may be in the works and that they are completing due diligence. The board would have to seriously consider this offer if they have funding in place.
There has been all kinds of junk notes from RVNC "reps" on Cafepharma about Prollenium.
Cafepharma is one of the most unreliable sources of information out there.
I doubt anyone on there is legitimate as a result of the posting anonymously
Understood. Cafe Pharma is a hotbed for disinformation, hence the "FWIW" caveat.
Prollenium appears to be a competitor of Teoxane. They manufacture fillers. https://prollenium.com/
Perhaps another bidder ??
Prollenium is a Canadian-based company that specializes in the development and manufacturing of dermal fillers, particularly hyaluronic acid-based fillers. One of their well-known products is Revanesse®, a line of dermal fillers designed for aesthetic treatments, including facial wrinkles, volume loss, and lip enhancement. Prollenium is recognized for its commitment to high-quality cosmetic and medical products in the aesthetics industry.
An anonymous poster on Cafe Pharma posted that a company called Prollenium is involved in the negotiations somehow. FWIW
It may also just be due diligence related.
RVNC, in its original PR, indicated that they could not see a path to ever be able to sell Daxxi profitably.
If Crown Labs has come to the same conclusion, then it’s conceivable they are rigorously, searching for a material adverse event which allows them to avoid the break fee.
If something else happened, wouldn’t crown labs have been forced to issue either an 8K or a press release?
I just think it has to be Teoxane related
That's an excellent point. Note that there are about 7 1/2 pages of reps by Crown (vs twice that rep volume for Revance), but all relate, in one way or another, to Crown's ability to close the deal (financing in place, duly authorized, etc.). This is the only rep by Crown relating to the conduct of its business and you have to ask, why would Revance care? The answer is, because they want to know whether it triggers the Teoxane cancellation right. I can just imagine how the negotiation might have gone, something like the Moe Green/Godfather negotation, you don't buy me out, I buy you out. That is, you, Crown, want a rep that no termination rights are triggered, well, then you tell me you are not triggering by being a competitor within the meaning of the license agreement.
But note the broad definition of a competitor in the text you excerpted. The definition includes companies that are merely doing research and development on dermal fillers and don't yet have a commercial product.
Dew, I think that may be an over-read of the provision on change in control.
The clause says:
"For the purpose of this definition a Competitor shall be any entity (including but not limited to a company or an Affiliate thereof) that at the time of the Change of Control is active in the research on, the development of, the manufacturing of, the marketing of the commercialization of, the distribution of, and/or the promotion of any
Anybody want to guess when this will be resolved one way or another?
My guess is it will be on Oct 1st.
This guess isn't based on any insight or information. I like October because it has Halloween🎃 and my birthday.🎂
So continuing this discussion, the following are some musings on the merger agreement. This will be a somewhat dense post for nonlawyers.
A little background, merger agreements and other acquisition agreements typically have a section containing various representations ("reps" to corporate lawyers, of which I am not one). Typically there will be closing conditions, one of which will be that there has not been a Material Adverse Change ("MAE") and that certain "fundamental" reps are true (like the corporation is duly organized and the stated capital structure is accurate) and that other reps are not false in such manner as would result in a MAE. Reps typically include statements to the effect that there is no outstanding litigation, that the financial statements are accurate, that the corporation is duly organized, etc. Generally, reps are qualified by company disclosure, that is, there will be an exhibit listing outstanding litigation, and other exception to the reps. So the rep is, in essence, qualified by the disclosures.
The Revance-Crown merger agreement contains a rep that the tender/offer won't create a termination right in any material contract. I don't know for sure given that the Company Disclosure Letter is not filed, but I would guess that there some disclosure in there about the Teoxane contract. If there isn't, either it is clear that there is no termination right (e.g., the redacted language in the Teoxance contract makes that clear) or Skadden didn't do it's job and a whiff of that magnitude would be shocking for a firm of their caliber. If there is such disclosure, I think the parenthetical ("in each case...") at the end of the excerpt from the MAE definition must be intended to mean, that doesn't count as an MAE.
If true, this just means that Crown has to close and can't escape because there is a termination right, or some argument that there might be a termination right, of the Teoxane contract. In other words, Crown signed knowing that risk, which has to be true given the agreement was publicly filed and Crown's law firm would have reviewed it. That just means that if they back out, they pay the break fee, unless Revance tries to sue for more or tried to compel them to close. As a practical matter, it is possible that Crown's bankers, who gave them the debt committment, are nervous and they wouldn't be able to close until this is resolved. Of course, this is all wild, uninformed speculation. Could be 100% wrong and the delay could be some juicy competing offer.
Here are some excerpts from the Revance-Crown merger agreement.
"Company" = Revance.
Annex I sets forth the conditions to the offer and clause D relates to the accuracy of the reps, basically, certain fundamental reps are correct and other reps are correct except to the extent it would cause a Company Material Adverse Effect. 5.4, copied below, is not a fundamental rep, it goes into the basket subject to the MAE standard. I have highlighted what I think is the language most pertinent to the Teoxane issue discussed in prior posts.
Teoxane has an amazing skincare line that RVNC did not bring in to sell in the USA. THIS was a huge mistake I becasue their hero product is called RHA Serum and has the same components as the RHA filler but for topical use. An easy tie in to sell Filler, Toxin and Skincare and promote the RHA line.
We carry Crown’s Biojuve and their Progen PRP. I wouldn’t think of them as competitors with a filler or toxin…..other than someone may allocate dollars one direction or the other. But I’m certainly not a legal expert on this. Wouldn’t surprise me that a case could be made for that though.
I contend that the Change of Control provision does pertain. Crown can be construed as a competitor of any company selling dermal fillers by dint of its Biojuve and ProGen PRP (platelet-rich plasma) products.
The best scenario for believers would be crowns paid the 42mm break up fee and move on. Then, fire Foley and hire a competent CEO. Selling RVNC at 6 bucks means he never believed in his own vision.
So he can’t stay either way.
mouton29 - Very interesting info. Thank you once again for your exceptional effort and commentary!
So Teoxane most likely cannot just walk with their line but they can't be happy with how Revance stock has performed. If there is trouble with the deal, I'm sure they are right in the middle of it.
Re: Teoxane right to terminate
I'm reasonably certain that the language you quote is not applicable here because the termination right is directed at an acquisition of Revance by a competitor of Teoxane. The trigger is a "Change of Control," which is defined in the Teoxane agreement as folllows:
Teoxane competes effectively in Europe without a Toxin line and probably thinks they can do so in the US without Revance (either on their own or with some new partner). Revance has already established Teoxane in the US Market and done all the heavy lifting to establish the line, so someone new could benefit greatly.
Revance without Teoxane is a disaster for Crown. (DAXXY sales are hurt as you have to cut the salesforce significantly and the synergy sales for DAXXIFY no longer exist, plus RVNC/Crown loses all the gross profit from Filler sales). Teoxane has tremendous negotiating power and probably can get a lot more than just European rights to DAXXIFY.
There is scenario that exists where Teoxane votes for the deal along with everyone else but makes it clear Crown won't get to keep their filler line. The deal passes and Crown is forced to back out and pay the breakup fee.
If Valérie Taupin doesn't want this deal to happen, I don't think it goes forward.
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