Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Porgie you were right. I do have an order in to sell TNA. looks like time to switch. May be a day early. Looking to do either faz or tza.
RIFIN will be in the mid 740s today and FAZ will go below $33, a little sooner than I had calculated.
And RIFIN is still below the 200 day moving average.
Looking for that 2012 effect are we?
What the flip does this mean? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/nyse-arca-threshold-securities-for-jan-4-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo
MORGAN STANLEY: Here Are 3 Reasons Why Stocks Are Going Down In 2012
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-adam-parker-sp-500-2012-2012-1
However, all warn that Europe remains a wild card. Most assume a eurozone recession in their base case scenario. But should Europe's debt crisis escalate and contagion ensue, all bets are off and stocks will tank. Then again, if the crisis is contained, then most would argue that the sky's the limit.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/top-equity-strategists-forecast-2012-2011-12#ixzz1iQf9peUd
Sound like volatility will be with us threw the new year !
FAZ is going to be the winner this year.IMO
Porgie and Hedge-funder:
Thanks for the excellent posts and insights.....off to do some study!
Happy New Year and Best Trading in 2012
They are engineered to decay ..
to often folks look at them as an investment . .when they are a tool of protection ..
I agree to an extent as if they go up 15-20% consecutively which has happened but yes, you must keep enough cash not to get called. Anyways in the rare times that happens, well short them after those spikes.
Just look at a chart of RIFIN to FAS/FAZ and you will see the decay factor over time...also DRV/DRN--look at all reverse splits since inception,
You can also hedge with options and cash in on those and sell covered calls.
Anyways, look at the SLV 3x leveraged ones now as they ran aggressively. Sam thing will happen to them
Not to me it doesn't. These funds have high margin requirements and are capable of some pretty serious moves against you while you are holding the short position. The cost of margin is probably going to eat up most of the time decay advantage.
In addition, you would have to hold a lot of cash in your account or risk liquidation at a price far higher than what you got for the shares, and forced liquidation of unrelated holdings to pay the difference.
Huge, huge risk. Why go there?
It is far safer to take a hedged position in the inverse fund than to short shares directly.
The distributions are not regularly scheduled, and they are not announced until after the market closes on the record date.
FAS has paid a dividend five times since inception, but FAZ has never had one. Although it is possible for the bear funds to distribute, it is rare because of the way they are constructed.
I was in ERX, the 3X energy fund once when it paid $4.65 per share. It was pure luck on my part, but it was definitely a "Whoopie!" moment, as it was greater than a 10% yield paid all at once, and in a tax free account for me.
http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs/distributions_qa.html#1
It's excellent that you read the prospectus. There is also an on-line course available. It's designed for brokers, but you come away with a much better understanding of what these funds are.
Porgie:
(neophyte here)
Thanks for your comments.....they are helpful....
I just read the FAZ Propsectus and see nothing in it about a distribution date....approx. when does it occur.....
Happy New Year!
FedUp
shorting FAZ or ANY 3x leveraged fund makes complete sense over time with the awesome decay in your favor..looking forward to more reverse splits
In my less than analytical opinion the wall streeters are going to make sure that the year ends on an up note so that the market is up for the year......
Then they will spin the first few weeks or months of 2012...at least until the euro gov's spark up again....and perhaps then we will see FAZ go to work.....
Rec you read Porgie's post.....I believe he is more in tune with the forth coming markets ......his call is 33 and change on FAZ...then get in......
I like you (probably) knee jerked in at 39 and down...and now have to either take my medicine or sit tight.....think I'll have another Conmemorativo margie and contemplate!
It wouldn't surprise me if FAZ rebounded until mid-january. However, I'm not sure if I'm willing to hold that long here. More so looking to get out at 40.
Technically speaking, my bet is that the S&P works its way down and bounces off of 1225 unless we get some really bad news. 1225 is down 3.2% from where we are now. A 3.2% drop in the S&P could easily give the FAZ a 9.6% pop to 40.
Likely dress up for New Years!
Then the restart of the european debt debacle......while the USA debt is off the charts with off book fed loans to our defunct banks as well as european central banks....there is no cure for the tens of trillions stolen by the wall steeters and banksters and oil crooks......
IMO little opinion FAZ looking good past mid-January!
Anybody else think the S&P has hit resistance and will make its way down in the near term from here?
If so, good for FAZ
Of course FAZ will get to $33, it's a mathematical certainty. It would probably take only about 760 on the index to do it this week, 740 to 750 to do it a month from now.
The last time FAZ went below $33 (pre-split) was back in August 2009 when the index went above 650. FAZ has never recovered anything close to it's value from that time. Even when the index hit 610 on the Oct. 3 low spike, FAZ never got above $16.40 pre-split.
Remember, both FAZ and FAS are designed to lose value against the index they track.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$rifin
Retail Investors Pull $132 Billion From Domestic Equity Funds In 2011, 33 Of 34 Sequential Weeks Of Outflows
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/retail-investors-pull-132-billion-domestic-equity-funds-2011-33-34-sequential-weeks-outflows
I'm long FAZ and shouldn't be. I bought CEF to counteract FAZ potentialy going down a couple weeks ago at $22.45. Of course they both went down. There's a good chance one or both will bounce here.
My gut tells me to liquidate FAZ and buy NUGT for a big bounce then rebuy FAZ. What's keeping me in FAZ is the horrible news, but Bernanke's interference is costing me big time both in my trading and interest at the bank.
I'm patiently waiting for the new year to bring in a big drop in the markets. FAZ daily looks grimm, weekly some hope. After this chart plays out I will have to reevaluate everything.
Fishpert are you now long FAS or what?tia
Not sure you will get 33.35 looks posible. I can't find 33 in the last 2 years. I intend to switch out of tna near 52 then take what I can get that looks best on faz or tza.May split and do someof each
FAZ is junk. Bernanke won't let the markets go down.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/ecb-holds-off-bond-purchases-italian-10.html
Faz ain,t don yet. looking to load up after the 1st of the year. 33 would be nice. wait till italy trys to sell billions of bonds next week.
No I did sell that possition to buy TNA.So far very happy.
You shorted FAZ??
That doesn't make any sense.
Last time FAZ traded around $37.00 was at the end of October, and the RIFIN was above 760.
Today the RIFIN is at 725.
So FAZ has experienced a deterioration of just over 5% in value in just under two months.
I'm calculating that a return in RIFIN to the 200 day moving average would put FAZ at about $33.00.
I have some January 50 puts which I picked up for a hedged play last fall. When I sold the FAZ, the puts were so under water they weren't worth selling. But at FAZ $33, they will be Monsters!!
exited shorts positions went long TNA 42.90
Me Too!
All aboard..............the train is leaving the station!
Very glad I sold at 44.7 yesterday.. Santa's coming to town!! lol
Still looks like some life in the ole 'FAZtastic'
Imminent Defaults
"Greece, Italy, Japan, Ireland, Iceland, Japan, Spain, Belgium, Japan, Porutgal, France, and have we mentioned Japan !!!!
warning signs, and which countries are already screwed?
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-01/wall_street/30462012_1_madoff-warning-signs-japanese-situation
2012 not looking so nice
Short it !!!
Be happy !!!
Now it's Japan
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-26/markets/30443752_1_dutch-politician-eurobonds-neuro
Japan Is A Giant Madoff-Like Ponzi Scheme That Will Blow Up Starting In The Next Few Months
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-01/wall_street/30462012_1_madoff-warning-signs-japanese-situation
Looks like a santa rally, with raindeer, slim.
looking to Loading up before Bears wake New Years Day!!
would like a position in the low 40,s.
Italian Bond Yields Near Record at 1-Year Auction
I thought I read over the weekend the yeilds were coming down, I guess not.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45637171
Italy faces a more challenging test on Wednesday, when it is due to sell up to 3 billion euros ($4 billion) of its five-year benchmark bond, which saw yields climb above 7 percent on Monday.
I thought FAZ is going to have no chance, but it seems like FED wouldn't easily bail everyone out. It frustrates me.
I think i,m going to break out the magic 8 ball. having serious trader fatigue.
been long on fas will buy faz when the euro hits 1.36-7. The EU has a long way to go. to put a treaty together in 3 mounths is a joke. I doubt they can do it in a year
Coming to America?
Many Greeks are draining their savings accounts because they are out of work, face rising taxes or are afraid the country will be forced to leave the euro zone
In August, unemployment reached 18.4 percent. Many Greeks now hoard their savings in their homes because they are worried the banking system may collapse.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802051,00.html
<<The weak bull is losing it's grip>> Bernanke is "saving the markets" from itself. Who is going to save us from Bernanke?
No matter what you've heard to the contrary, "there is QE3, the Fed is pumping money into the system," says legendary investor Jim Rogers, disregarding most every Federal Reserve statement over the last six months
http://tinyurl.com/dy567yf
The market won't look at it as "concrete". The media will spin the news to a positive. It all will come falling down soon.. Look at charts... tic toc tic toc
The S&P downgrade watch seems to be overshadowed by the fact that European bond yields actually dropped today.
The financial sector seems to be hanging on to yesterday's gains for the most part.
So much for a FAZ snap-back I thought we would see.
I'm a big skeptic regarding using technical analysis in a leveraged ETF like FAZ.
Maybe with the underlying index: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$rifin
But that index has been strictly news driven for the last year.
I would anticipate tomorrow to be a "snap back" day for FAZ.
This just came out: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/s-p-said-to-place-all-17-euro-nations-on-downgrade-watch-over-debt-crisis.html
Financials are having a big day today. USB is the laggard for the sector, and even it's up over 1%.
Followers
|
156
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
14996
|
Created
|
11/08/08
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
5 yr T-bill | 10 yr T-bill |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |