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$GDX *SIZE* ~ 7.07 million shares at $31.81 #darkpool activity ~ 29% of 30D Avg Vol
By: FLOWrensics | December 3, 2023
• $GDX SIZE #darkpool activity ~ 7.07 million shares at $31.81 ~ 29% of 30D Avg Vol
This is the largest size we have seen in the Gold Miners in the last 3 years
Top Holdings: $NEM $ABX $AEM $WPM $FNV $AU $RGLD $K
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 2, 2023
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 28, 2023.
Gold: Currently net long 200.1k, up 28.4k.
Gold rallied to both a closing and intraday high. The metal rallied 4.3 percent this week to close at $2,089.70, with an intraday high of $2,095.70. The yellow metal is on the verge of a massive breakout.
Although gold rose to a new record, it remains in the vicinity of a price point that has resisted prior advances. In August 2020, it posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. The same thing happened in March last year when it printed $2,079 and in May this year when $2,085 was tagged.
Non-commercials, whose holdings of net longs are the highest since April last year, act as if a breakout is just a matter of time, and they are probably right.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 2, 2023
At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 20897. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 20957 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 19356. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 20727.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 20642.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 27th at 20957, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 20957 to 20014. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 20957 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 20957. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 20229 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 20854. After a six month rally from the previous low of 19360, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for six months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 19356 reaching 20526.
The market is trading some 0.20% percent above the last high 20854 from which we did originally obtain one sell signal from that event established during May. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well.
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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q3’23 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | December 1, 2023
The mid-tier and junior gold miners recently finished reporting their latest quarterly results. These smaller producers are fundamentally-superior, in the sweet spot for upside potential in major gold uplegs. Indeed their Q3’23 operational and financial results proved spectacular, much better than their larger peers. The potent combination of lower mining costs and higher gold prices fueled huge profits growth for these companies.
The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $4.4b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, although there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with little weighting allocated to juniors.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Only four of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings are true juniors!
Their Q3 production is highlighted in blue in the table below. Juniors not only mine less than 75k ounces per quarter, but their gold output generates over half their quarterly revenues. That excludes both primary silver miners producing byproduct gold, and royalty and streaming companies that purchase future gold output for big upfront payments used to finance mine builds. But mid-tiers often make better investments.
These gold miners dominating GDXJ offer a unique mix of sizable diversified production, excellent output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains. Mid-tiers are less risky than juniors, while amplifying gold uplegs much more than majors. Our newsletter trading books are now filled with fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors, smaller gold miners which we’ve long specialized in at Zeal.
While gains are mounting in these high-potential gold stocks, they remain really out of favor. GDXJ has had a wild ride over the past year or so. From late September 2022 to mid-April, GDXJ powered 66.9% higher in a strong upleg! But then the mid-tiers started grinding lower on balance with their metal, and GDXJ fell 29.3% into early October. That recent selloff rebalanced sentiment, eliminating most bullishness.
Since then GDXJ has started clawing back, up 24.1% at best as of late November. Gold-stock uplegs parallel and amplify gold’s, but often start out slower. Traders remain skeptical after major gold selloffs, not convinced of young uplegs’ staying power. But the longer and higher gold runs, the more speculators and investors grow bullish on its potential. So they increasingly flood into gold stocks as gold uplegs mature.
For 30 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDXJ’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly mid-tiers, they now account for 65.9% of this ETF’s total weighting. While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding smaller gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector. This research is essential.
This table summarizes the GDXJ top 25’s operational and financial highlights during Q3’23. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDXJ over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’22. Those symbols are followed by their recent GDXJ weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’23 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’22. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of mid-November. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
The mid-tier gold miners’ overall Q3’23 performance proved spectacular! These sweet-spot-for-upside smaller gold stocks grew their production while slashing mining costs. That along with surging prevailing gold prices fueled massive earnings jumps, both per ounce and absolutely. Last quarter was undoubtedly one of the best the mid-tier and junior gold stocks ever reported, which should really attract back investors.
Production growth trumps everything else as the primary mission for gold miners. Higher outputs boost operating cash flows which help fund mine expansions, builds, and purchases, fueling virtuous circles of growth. Mining more gold also raises profitability, lowering unit costs by spreading big fixed operational expenses across more ounces. The GDXJ-top-25 gold miners delivered again for the sixth quarter in a row!
Their collective production grew 2.5% YoY to 3,378k ounces last quarter. That easily bested the GDX-top-25 majors’ Q3 output, which shrunk slightly as I analyzed in another essay a couple weeks ago. The mid-tiers also outperformed world gold mines as a whole, including all that produce byproduct gold. The World Gold Council’s excellent Q3’23 Gold Demand Trends report pegged overall global output growth at 2.3%.
And interestingly the GDXJ top 25’s production is understated. Note in this table that two new explorers climbed into this ETF’s upper ranks over this past year, Australia’s De Grey Mining and Canada’s Filo Corp. Both are worthy additions, advancing great gold projects. De Grey’s has a massive 10.5m ounces of indicated and inferred resources, while Filo’s huge primary copper deposit contains 6.7m ounces of gold!
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The Best Mining Stock to Own in December Newmont Corporation (NEM)
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 1, 2023
• Plus, 24 stocks that tend to outperform this time of year
• The equity is underperforming this year
Precious metals producer Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is 0.4% higher at $40.37 this morning, looking to recover from two days of losses as gold miners felt the pressure of a rising dollar. The stock is down nearly 15% in 2023, and things looks bleak with a month to go before the start of the new year. However, history suggests that NEM could follow up its mid-November dip to annual lows below the $34 level to close out the year with a bang.
Per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Newmont stock is one of the best-performing stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the month of December over the last decade. The shares averaged a December return of 3.4% over the last 10 years, finishing the month with a positive return seven times. This makes the equity is the only precious metal stock to make the list, too.
It's also worth noting Newmont stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at a slightly elevated 77 out of 100. In other words, the equity tends to outperform options traders' volatility expectations.
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The 3-year range rank spread between gold miners and gold recently fell to -60%, a phenomenon observed in less than 1% of cases since 1969.
By: Dean Christians | November 30, 2023
• The 3-year range rank spread between gold miners and gold recently fell to -60%, a phenomenon observed in less than 1% of cases since 1969.
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The Ord Oracle: GDX Update
By: Markets & Mayhem | November 30, 2023
SPX Monitoring Purposes; Long SPX 10/27/23 at 4117.37. Gain Since 12/20/22: Over 26%. Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
There is a very good likelihood of a multi-year signal triggering for GDX in the coming months.
The above chart is on the monthly time frame. The bottom window is the GDX Cumulative Up Down Volume percent, and the next higher window is the GDX Cumulative Advance/Decline percent. These signals generate after a bottom is in, but, once they are triggered, the signal can last many months or years. Bullish signals are generated when both indicators close above mid-Bollinger bands (noted with blue lines) and bearish signals when both indicators close below mid-Bollinger bands (noted with red lines).
Both monthly indicators reached near the 2016 low (noted with pink shaded areas), noting an oversold market. The last sell signal came in early 2021 (nearly 3 years ago), and is now nearing a bullish crossover of the mid-Bollinger band, which may take another month of two. We do have evidence that a worthwhile low has formed already and a bullish mid-Bollinger band crossing of both indicators above will signal that a multi-month, if not a multi year, rally is coming.
Tim Ord,
Editor
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$GDX Gold Miners ETF breaking the neckline today, back above its 200 SMA for the first time since August!
By: TrendSpider | November 28, 2023
• $GDX Gold Miners ETF breaking the neckline today, back above its 200 SMA for the first time since August!
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$GDX breaking out
By: Mike Zaccardi | November 28, 2023
• $GDX breaking out
https://tradingview.com/chart/GDX/efON052s-GDX-Bullish-Inverse-Head-and-Shoulders-Bottom-In-Play/
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$GDX Opening Put Sweeper in to the 12/01 $30 Puts
By: FLOWrensics | November 27, 2023
• $GDX Opening PUT SWEEPER in to the 12/01 $30 PUTS.
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Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 8
By: Adam Hamilton | November 25, 2023
Gold stocks have mostly ground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector really out of favor again. Yet both the metal and its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of the year. From late October to late February, gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage. Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold’s bullish seasonals should prove potent tailwinds ahead.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. And the biggest seasonal surge of all is just getting underway heading into winter. As the Indian-wedding-season gold-jewelry buying that normally drives this metal’s big autumn rally winds down, the Western holiday season ramps up. The holiday spirit puts everyone in the mood to spend money.
Men splurge on vast amounts of gold jewelry for Christmas gifts for their wives, girlfriends, and daughters. The holidays are also a major engagement season, with Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve being two of the biggest proposal nights of the year. Something like a third to half of the entire annual sales of many jewelry retailers come in November and December! And jewelry historically dominates overall gold demand.
The World Gold Council closely tracks global gold supply and demand, publishing the latest data each quarter. During the last five calendar years, jewelry demand averaged 42.7% of overall total world gold demand. That is much larger than investment demand, which averaged 26.6% during that same 2018-to-2022 span. Year-to-date in 2023 at the end of Q3, jewelry demand is tracking at a similar 42.9% of the total.
The usual frenzied Western jewelry buying heading into Christmas shifts to pure investment demand after year-end. That’s when Western investors figure out how much surplus income they earned during the prior year after bonuses and taxes. Some of this is plowed into gold in January, driving it higher. Finally gold’s big winter rally climaxes in late February on major Chinese New Year gold buying flaring up in Asia.
So during its bull-market years, gold has usually tended to enjoy powerful winter rallies driven by these sequential episodes of outsized demand. Naturally the gold stocks follow gold higher, amplifying its gains due to their excellent profits leverage to the gold price. Today gold stocks are now once again early on in gold’s strongest seasonal rally of the year, driven by this annually-recurring robust winter gold demand.
Since it is gold’s own demand-driven seasonality that fuels gold stocks’ seasonality, that’s logically the best place to start to understand what’s likely coming. This old research thread focuses on modern bull-market seasonality, as bull and bear price action are quite different. Gold enjoyed a mighty 638.2% bull run from April 2001 to August 2011, fueling gold stocks skyrocketing 1,664.4% per their leading index then!
Following that secular juggernaut, gold consolidated high then started correcting into 2012. But the yellow metal didn’t enter formal bear territory down 20%+ until April 2013. That beast mauled gold on and off over several years, so 2013 to 2015 are excluded from these seasonal averages. Gold finally regained bull status powering 20%+ higher in March 2016, then its gains grew to a modest 96.2% by August 2020.
Another high consolidation emerged after that, where gold avoided relapsing into a new bear despite a serious correction. Later the yellow metal started powering higher again, coming within 0.5% of a new nominal record in early March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. So 2016 to 2021 definitely proved bull years too, with 2022 really looking like one early on. Then Fed officials panicked, unleashing market chaos.
Inflation was raging out of control thanks to their extreme money printing. In just 25.5 months following the March 2020 pandemic-lockdown stock panic, the Fed ballooned its balance sheet an absurd 115.6%! That effectively more than doubled the US monetary base in just a couple years, injecting $4,807b of new dollars to start chasing and bidding up the prices on goods and services. That fueled an inflation super-spike.
With big inflation running rampant, Fed officials frantically executed the most-extreme tightening cycle in this central bank’s history. They hiked their federal-funds rate an astounding 450 basis points in just 10.6 months, while also selling monetized bonds through quantitative tightening! That ignited a huge parabolic spike in the US dollar, unleashing massive gold-futures selling slamming gold 20.9% lower into early September.
That was technically a new bear market, albeit barely and driven by an extraordinary anomaly that was unsustainable. Indeed gold soon rebounded sharply, exiting 2022 with a trivial 0.3% full-year loss. Gold kept on powering higher, reentering bull territory up 20.2% in early February 2023! So I’m also classifying 2022 as a bull year for seasonality research. Gold’s modern bull years include 2001 to 2012 and 2016 to 2023.
Prevailing gold prices varied radically across these secular spans, running just $257 when gold’s mighty 2000s bull was born to August 2020’s latest record high of $2,062. That vast range of gold levels spread over all those long years has to first be rendered in like-percentage terms in order to make them perfectly comparable with each other. Then they can be averaged together to distill out gold’s bull-market seasonality.
That’s accomplished by individually indexing each calendar year’s gold price action to its final close of the preceding year, which is recast at 100. Then all gold price action of the following year is calculated off that common indexed baseline, normalizing all years. So gold trading at 110 simply means it has rallied 10% off the prior year’s close. Gold’s previous seasonality before 2022 was added is shown in light blue.
During fully 19 of the last 22 years, gold has averaged excellent 13.8% annual gains! This great recent-decade track record should leave gold widely respected as an essential portfolio diversifier. All investors should deploy some small fraction of their financial assets into gold, like the traditional 5% to 10% which was considered prudent for centuries. Gold allocations stabilize returns, while protecting against market shocks...
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 20030 and is trading up about 9.68% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bullish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020 from this 2020 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 19964 and overhead resistance forming above at 20098. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 23rd at 20197, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 13th, which has been a move of 3.833%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 20197 made 4 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 18669 and 20365.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733 when it was an outside reversal to the downside yet it did close lower. This immediate year, the market did open higher, thus far, but this market has rallied exceeding last year's high. and remains below last year's high of 20788. This market is still above the normal trading yearly envelope where the top remains at 17906. The last Breakout Mode indicator took place in during 2003. The last Crash Mode indicator took place in during 2014.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 20854. After a six month rally from the previous low of 19360, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for six months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in November, this market has held above last month's low of 18235 reaching 19356.
This market is trading beneath that high of May which was 20854 by more than 2 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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The Ord Oracle: GDX Update
By: Tim Ord | November 22, 2023
SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX 10/27/23 at 4117.37. Gain since 12/20/22: Over 26%. Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Last Thursday's report said, "above is the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index. The bullish percent index measures the percent on stocks that are on point and figure buy signals. For a valid bullish signal, the Bullish Percent index would need to rise. Since the beginning of October, the bullish percent index has been rising from 10% to the current reading of 25%, which in turn shows this market is getting stronger as more stocks trigger buy signals. GDX has not traded above its previous high of the 30.00 range yet, whereas the bullish percent index has made higher highs, suggesting GDX's next test of 30.00 will be exceeded." The bullish percent index now stands at 32.14% and GDX still hasn't broken 30.00.
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$GDX above 30 gets interesting. Lower yields ahead?
By: Mike Zaccardi | November 21, 2023
• $GDX above 30 gets interesting. Lower yields ahead?
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