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this week
tim ord and matt from trade brigrade both bullish
i think due to earnings
they smart guys
monday up
then sellers later in the week
i am probably too bearish
i am sticking to my 2023 scenario
events, tnx the dollar
we go down on good volume
up on weaker
tnx weekly
https://schrts.co/uvpiiZWn
dollar
https://schrts.co/gZDxMjsK
got to look at monthly
Pete n repeat 2023 correction
https://schrts.co/HjDvdGFJ
shane last week
extremely bearish
his systems really are not working well
tim ord is amazing
stuck in the big
red candle
overhead supply
slowing bulls a bit
10am big vol candle a problem
nq double test of vwap zoom
nq did not even get to 1 min rsi 30
if you noticed the long nq rectangle and went long pre market
you get an A
very bullish
no inventory adjust yet
early very bullish
can turn quickly
tim ord rides again
shane s looking real bad
he has been making excuses a lot lately
fed day liquidation break to take out sellers
straight up since
sayings- 1 day does not make a market
shorting an up bull market is very dangerous
tim ord
min 15
earning and events lead the market
so news changes day to day
the news is far more important than the charts
balancing to go lower
elliot wave
says today will be different and they will try to get you
to trade yesterday
SO after the big H you are looking for pullback
3 fakeouts then small pullback
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&i=p05535525510&a=581301232&r=1587243722704
in transit
so have not turned them on
they want to trade every 5 mins
not to my way of thinking
spy60
five waves down
then abc counter move up
now back to 5 waves down
this is called a zigzag
the counter move took too long and too impulsive to be a wave 4
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&i=p46857756371&a=234724271&r=1593092184058
bottom held
inside day 2
https://schrts.co/PxtepTYd
158k vs 111k
created the big h
abcd likely
fixing the car day done
the script today (does not have to do this but more likely)
rally to fib .50
2 things
day after fed often the opposite
Elliot wave says each day will be a bit different
today there was no real ATH bounce even though
shorts were trapped at prices to be punished
so tonight ATH rally.
I expect tomorrow to be different then today
But this is all short term traders moving the market when they want to
part 2
inventory is again too short
but value is right here
so not short in the hole
short term algos are mechanical so stopped exactly at todays lows.
fed days are tricky and can take a day or 2 to play out
but still find where to short
higher prices rejected
so we are heading to the bottom of the range
down on good candle and volume
slammed off the 20da ma UGH
BAD
it gets worse
dollar down, tnx down
so market should have been UP
https://schrts.co/TuJyiXHF
things to look at
first is it a good location
AT LOW YES
2nd the pattern is
rectangle
enter the rectangle
going below it
ITS NOT A LONG ANYMORE
going above it long till
could not make a new low
tested 4 times
fed is meaningless nothing new
rally into single prints
fed is kinda of hawkish
but the market is rallying on the news
a nothing burger day
they already announced today no rate cuts till inflation down
nothing to trade on
inventory is too short
if the fed is dovish rally
wonder if we just do not move much
fed notes say no rate cut till inflation dies
there will be some move
but is there much the market does not know
only if a surprise comes
no rate cut is know till later in the year
the fed does not feel pressured
so the market is repricing assets lower
and trickling down
script
overlap and sell
inventory did not adjust up like it should have
es
excess low negated
but pre market poor low
no signs yet
many pros do not play fed day
i have no position.
ach today
anything can happen
tim ord still bullish
tim tom saying if selloff before FED likely rally
will the liquidation break zoom the market up
well eod both nq es had excess lows indicating auction down maybe done
as long as the excess low is not repaired
when good news does not lift a market
just like bad news does tank a market
this is telling
the highs with no volume is a huge tell
amzn beats
.lots of late short traders now out of sync