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Fine wade, you drive me nuts with your shallow thinking so I shall leave.
Good luck all, all IMO.
PS- FWIW the only other time I checked and called you out similarly recently you had to correct that trade so not like I dint have reason to suspect your trades and it was your comments on calling PSIX a scam that drove it. I don’t own PSIX but don’t consider it a scam.
Wade, U were blabbering about PSIX being a scam when the board has already gone over the debt structure and ownership previously several times so it prompted me to look at your last trade. It looked sus on my feed when I looked at it like many of your trades so I mentioned it. Researcher corrected me. That was it.
My feed must be messed up then the way I looked. I still hold the opinion tho.
All IMO only.
Another sus trade by Wade. I’m pretty confident he is skimming or some such. Today he posted buying GERN at $4.28 7 minutes after market open when it never traded down there the entire first 7 minutes of open.
Of course you alerted that it was trading down to $4.27 premarket but that was before market open and wade didn’t post his trade until several minutes after market open. So if I had to guess, he used your pre market post as a grounds to skim several cents to make it look like he bought in. Good luck proving it but the timing is odd and good luck with the way he unrestricts himself from any timing or rules to show anything concretely. I haven’t tracked it much but am definitely seeing a theme with his timing and price on some trades and doubt anyone would blindly follow his trades given the random and unusual nature over the years.
Unless I’m messed up on time zones or something, that was how it looked to me.
All in my opinion only.
It is 100% not possible to mimic your trade returns by following you IMO. That is why I personally don’t believe your purported returns but everyone has their own opinion. Way too many times you churn for no fundamental logical reason and reverse course on a dime to make any sense of any of it in my opinion.
NVM, just realized people can trade in and out, freeze, and double down in that one. But the no pick point is still interesting. If I was gonna make a contest, I’d have people put forth their top 2 or 3 with no in and out or double down trades allowed but one freeze would be allowed. More conviction and focus, less trading.
Just realized none of the 5 picks I mentioned were in the pick10 thing SSK organized. I only felt confident enough in 3 to hold without trading for a year (CNRD, KRKNF, and NUVB) so no way could I come up with enough ideas to confidently enter. The other two were more cigar butt and not a full grasp of a turnaround pending (ISDR, BRID). I guess it is a good omen when the best 3 (or even 5 with less confidence on the latter 2) ideas are not followed or picked here.
Nelson, agreed biotechs can be very deep divey and/or complicated or heavily unknown type stuff sometimes. Fortunately for NUVB specifically, the dilution risks felt low and the specific drug was in an area I have some understanding (NSCLC inhibs for late stage) so wasn’t as hairy for me as most would be in a general sense. But it is still a lot of work (confidence intervals and spreads, size of treated populations, subgroup breakdowns into specific groups that may interact or have differing results that may be hard to interpret, evolving competition, etc.) One modest concern I have is around the first more mature study results being I think solely in China. The data may be fine but ethnicity sometimes may have some nuance to results and leave more unknowns. So I’m curious how the second global study turns out, hopefully mostly paralleling the first And being a single arm study isn’t as robust but still can be meaningful as I think it could be here.
Like any biotech, there’s lots of risk but they have a clean balance sheet and a late stage drug that thus far has IMO clear potential medical benefits.
All IMO only.
NUVB has been a steady climber right off the get go so I’m taking slight and light profits since I overloaded a bit under $3. I think they have potential to be the best ROS-1 inhib NSCLC drug with taletrectinib for those that have become refractory to first gen ROS-1 inhibs but a lot remains to be seen with potential new competition and them only at phase II trials and single arm. Their first phase II though in China has shown promising results and risk profile with TRUST-I and the global TRUST-II trial should show more maturing data later this year (it has been awhile since follow up so if those numbers parallel TRUST-I results, I expect some buzz and potential accelerated approval in US given potential benefits to patients).
Granted, ROS-I driver mutation NSCLC is pretty rare so the potential treatment population is not real large even with lung cancer being one of the most common and deadly forms of cancer with never smoker lung cancer numbers accelerating.
https://www.anhearttherapeutics.com/file.cfm/14/docs/1373p_m_perol_taletrectinib_esmo_2023_poster.pdf
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174687608
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174674441
The new ICE pact could be good news down the road as maritime trade and commerce become more prevalent in Arctic waterways and more need for ice tugs becomes a reality.
https://www.workboat.com/shipbuilding/us-canada-and-finland-introduce-ice-pact
https://professionalmariner.com/conrad-to-build-pair-of-icebreaking-tugs-for-army-corps
PSIX How come you took 20 minutes to update your PSIX purchase and in that time it went from $8.1 to around $9?
You could have skimmed 10% theoretically off that 20 minute lag.
Just saying. I don't have time to babysit you but saw the 20 minute lag when I decided to look at you buying an insinuated scam stock as of yesterday but today is a buy.
Here is the 10:10 AM (EST) time stamp of your buy post when the stock was materially higher than purported buy price.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174736903
Looks fake.
PSIX was at $8.1 almost 20 minutes earlier from your posted time. At the time of this post it was around $8.5-$9…
Looks fake.
PSIX was at $8.1 almost 20 minutes earlier from your posted time. At the time of this post it was around $8.5-$9…
That’s pretty dumb. I can’t remember how many frauds I found over the years that were signed off by various auditors, especially if in China back in the day where physical audits were more winks and nod. I’m sure there are several out there right now.
“ The thing that made me think it was real for sure, was that the auditors were one of the big 8 accounting firms. I think Ernst & Whinney !”
Lavelle code decipherer: We will obviously be profitable in Q3 because of seasonality but don’t expect much more. LOL. At least it is in used cigar butt territory.
“ You know, there was a China stock CCME in 2011, which no one on this board thought was a scam.”
Wanna bet? I and others knew the China reverse merger system was riddled with scams before 2011 even started. I don’t recall CCME specifically and don’t have membership to waste time digging up old posts on the scams but I certainly wasn’t the only one talking about how scammy they were in 2011.
Wade, you didn’t call it a scam but directly compared it to the reverse merger scams you got sucked into years ago.
PS- why would I defend it? I’m just giving my opinion that it isn’t a scam. I don’t own it.
What looks scammy about it? I’m the one that brought up the corporate structure to begin with but didn’t call it a scam because it didn’t have the hallmark characteristics of scams.
Many of the China reverse mergers you were getting into back in the day were obvious scams to several of us back then and we said so.
Only Wade mentioned it as like the China stocks of old. Those were obvious scams to many of us watching cashflows, etc. My point with it was that a China state owned company basically has control over the company in a secondary debt position. But at least PSIX is continuing to pay down debt.
It ain’t bad out there, just hard to find deep value micros with clarity and no major faults. I hit a new ATH Friday but have been conservative trying to find easy value in typical micros (without much success).
ADFJF- I’m hopeful after another Q or two they turn on a buyback for regular shareholders given the prices paid to take the insider shares off the books. Since they recently announced the second phase of the big pharma project, I’m guessing near term they’ll want a bit of liquidity. As long as the CEO is being accurate projecting a lot of opportunity over the 3-5 year horizon, this should find its way angain eventually. That investing thesis/line of thinking does rely on CEO outlook which is always a risk and I don’t have any knowledge to be able to channel check something like that. I have a few old shares and a few new ones recently acquired but haven’t been too crazy building a position.
Good luck, all IMO.
You forgot to mention Weichai is state owned.
Just playing devil’s advocate on purported returns, who is to believe yours are real or anyone else? Now if there are restrictions like SSKILLZ where he has to take end of day prices, it is harder to manipulate and would be stupid to manipulate if thinly traded companies (because if he is the one buying or selling real shares end of day to enhance his returns in a make believe port, his real port would be losing on those).
But with your style of being able to go in and out many times per week, per day, per hour, etc on the same security, you could easily positively skim several percent a month in returns by simply saying you sold and using the ask price instead of bid price and vice versa (if you buy you give yourself the bid price instead of ask) and no one would be the wiser.
Not saying you are doing that, but who would know and it could very easily heavily inflate your returns over time given the massive churn you have even if spreads are 0.05% on bid and ask.
The stuff you’ve picked over time (and rationale) have been very coin flip IMO, whether triple levered negative ETFs or single securities like AAOI or whatever. In terms of stock picking names over time, I’d say KiK is far superior in general to you in my personal opinion (and probably many others) although yes they are thinly traded very often.
All IMO only.
PS- if you wanted to convince me of your returns more fully, just take end of day prices on securities for buys and sells. That eliminates a lot of the skimming that can be done with your current ways.
But still semi controlled by a sub of a Chinese state owned corp thru debt. KiK has been on this one for awhile and has done very well.
Couldn’t pick 10 but mentioned 3 last week as single posts on their threads, CNRD, NUVB, and KRKNF.
And there are two cheap enough I’m watching them with smallish starter positions but they don’t have that clear turnaround feel yet- ISDR and BRID.
PS- was able to load up on NUVB luckily on very heavy end of day volume last Friday under $3 and a few more this AM.
I like NUVB risk reward and leadership in biotech space better but agree GERN could potentially get bought out.
Still definitely like this one as a core position but the very large block around $9.5 looks like a cap for the near foreseeable future unless we get news. The changes to the YRBM contract looked helpful tho (moved up completion date and total possible amount bumped up about $9 mill).
I started buying a few around $8 and under lately. Not big cuz I don’t understand the industry well enough.
Ive been building a position around $0.69-$0.70 US.
Looks decent, I’ve been building a position around $3 lately.
I think ADFJF and HMDPF were the main two many were looking at. I tried buying both yesterday and got almost none but had a little ADFJF from awhile back. I did get a little Kraken but it is unrelated to the selling since it hasn’t really rallied much.
FF- No idea, biofuels are a complicated business with everything from legislative unknowns to crop harvest weather unknowns to competitive segments outside just biofuels competing with them. Very complicated to handle. Lots of unknowns. Plus CEO retiring, so big unknown there. Not sure the reason, haven’t looked and not sure if they found a good replacement yet.
It’s good to get granularity too. Like with govt contracts for CNRD.
They had an amendment to those costly YRBMs that upped the total potential amount and shortened the build finish time to June from Dec next year so I’m guessing they won’t be as hard on margins moving forward.
And recently the repair and conversion side received a potential USACE contract looks like up to $20 mill.
https://sam.gov/opp/b20f40d1ee14488f8568378605707ca0/view#award
Plus there is an aging barge fleet in the US where replacement cost is so out of whack with new build cost the last couple years. That should lead to eventual demand IMO as input costs come down and/or moderate (steel has been coming down a bit although labor remains inflated).
When the company trades at a steep discount to tangible assets, has been in a long downtrend, has had some ugly contracts that are funneling thru, has a bit of one time bump from the legal case, and has improving margins with steel input cost coming down while being almost debt free, it feels like there is a large runway of safety for them to turn things around and that it has already started.
Given the large overhead at $9.50, I’m guessing it is capped until next report although who knows.
All IMO only.
Correction- I said hopper barge instead of hopper dredge in last post I’m replying to. Big difference in cost. Point being, the GLDD second hopper dredge contract execution likely hit the Q4 from expected forward loss and (probably in hindsight) stupidly kept me from adding at great prices. Regardless, as most of my high conviction pink sheet plays go, this one is looking out several quarters so I hold it as my largest micro conviction play.
PS- there is a sizable seller ask at $9.5. I think it was maybe $200k or so, so someone with a chunk is willing to put shares out there for sale if it bids up that much. Not mine of course.
If ETCC had $50+ mill of tangible book minus liabilities with assets in the US, I’d look harder. But it doesn’t. Partially because of that, I feel the one contract is a longer term unknown risk to my valuation of the biz worth in say 24 months. Plus they have debt and preferreds. Fairly normal stuff but I like simple share structure.
PS- I forgot to mention I like to buy at bottoms and/or multiyear lows.
I take a ton of time to develop comfort in higher conviction plays and haven’t spent any time on ETCC. But on the surface, I was a bit concerned about the location of biz (with the war going on so close by, among other risks), the large single contract makes it hard for me to judge the underlying biz ex that contract, and I like cigar butt balance sheets where the value of tangibles far outweigh the market cap ex liabilities. ETCC market cap is well above tangible net worth currently. After the contract runs thru that might change, but it is just one contract and things are so lumpy I would need to know more about their customers and how much work is potentially out there to replace the big contract as it is worked thru.
I do agree getting in can be a pain in the butt, I often spend months building positions in the tiny companies. But, again, the win rate is so high I keep doing it.
For instance, I like CNRD off the pinks and built a position with cost basis in the mid $7 area but it took a long time. The part that irks me on that one is I was afraid to add when it sank because the Q4 was so awful. I should have thought more about the negative effect that second hopper barge contract being executed in the Q negatively hit things but the hit was too hard for me to pull the trigger and buy more, even tho there were lots of shares trading down to $7 and even under. Regardless, I am playing it for a year or more out but because of that near term Q I missed adding at great prices that could have reduced my cost basis.
Rare bird? I’d say over 80% of my higher conviction thin micros go up substantially over time (say 6 months to a couple yearsish). And while liquidity almost always sucks starting off, I usually see 3x-10x the dollar volumes when I sell a yearish or two out.
But yes, for your style of whipsawing opinion and constantly moving in and out I agree these things are not for you.
We’ve known this (your opinion and style) for over a decade so not sure why you keep complaining about it. To each their own I guess.
I still have a hard time with over half their cash being spent on paying near all-time high prices for insider shares. It worked great timing-wise for executives with the tax change and obviously created some selling pressure recently with that tax change.
They collected a ton of receivables lately bolstering cash to help easily fund the cash outflow (probably wrapped up a large project I’d guess), but then they very weakly offered a 2 cent semi annual dividend to everyone else without any public market buybacks?
The recent May contract wins are nice to have but the last Q also shows how quickly backlog can fall off. Not bad, not good, just lumpy.
It looked like higher margin fab hours work as % of backlog fell a little bit, from 48% to 45% sequentially so probably not too impactful moving forward.
I didnt look to see the clear structure for selling and administrative expenses but looked like share price appreciation negatively affects results as far as higher cost. YOY with the higher revenues, the company’s selling and admin cost went from 6.1% of revs in 2023 to 9% 2024 so a bit counterintuitive and I didn’t look closer outside share price (DSU and PSU consideration) hurting things apparently.
I wonder if data center construction has helped them at all. I didn’t see anything mentioned specifically.
I’d maybe play this for a bounce off the tax law change but have a harder time thinking longer term paying all time high prices to start a position in a cyclical industry company that has been around for a long time and only recently took off to any meaningful degree over all those years of existence. Maybe the reshoring and recent public infrastructure lettings angle keeps the boom going.
I’m always looking at negatives first so excuse the probably heavy negative implied tone if it comes off overly that way. I’m really slow with SEDAR too so didn’t look too much.
If I had to totally speculate, my guess is insiders are cashing in a small piece (maybe 5% of their holdings) on the best time they’ve ever seen to burn nearly $50 mill cash at a potential cyclical peak. I don’t blame them and not like they have debt to worry about, but as a little holder I’d be asking where are my public share buybacks? Maybe they’ll address that soon if shares continue lower.
All IMO only and I may have some things wrong as a first look at it and using SEDAR.
ETCC- It also looked like almost $70 mill was remaining as of Feb 2024 on the big 2023 $85 mill contract (pg 21 annual). So still lots of that to be recognized and if a chunk of the last Q revs are from that, maybe that will bode well as far as supporting recent margins as KiK implied.
To have only realized that much in revs over a year in from announce does seem to make sense they had some upstart costs that now get to have corresponding revs get realized but I don’t know how things flow with their products generally and am just using the contract announce time and the annual stated amount left on the contract under backlog.
Again though, I don’t have a horse in this race.
I wonder if there was added pressure at startup of the big contract as KiK had mentioned and given the award was announced awhile ago.
https://www.etcusa.com/etcs-aircrew-training-systems-unit-awarded-85-million-contract/
You may both be right, increased margin pressure early on in ramping a big project, and the front end of the contract being more constructing and physical labor/materials, maybe subcontracting lower margin biz ( probably mostly done last year) followed by better margins as things progressed into maybe more services side this year. At least it seems a potential reasonable explanation.