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listened or read both OUST and VLDR cc's... key takeaway... both ceo's talk of inflection point in Lidar use... key takeaway from q&a sessions... IMO OUST is prepared for inflection point and key drivers of growth will be lower costs and improved performance... VLDR seemed to fumble on call on cost issue .... there will be a shakeout in lidar imo and OUST will be in the survivor camp... how many of the top five or six survive is the big question... all imo
anyone notice 224k warrant buy today? listened to cc... great execution and positioning.... there will be a shakeout in lidar companies and Ouster will be in the winner category imo... I think they are hitting the performance/cost metrics at the optimal time just as demand takes off and lower costs increase demand. Will they be a takeout target in the next two years?
Got in today after watching vids on youtube. A little underwater for now but this dog should hunt big time. Expect games w the share price but Russell coming up in June and this should be an easy add with a bunch of institutional buys.
great job on financing... i sold out in jan and missed the peak but back in for the next ride... questions answered on expansion funding and getting rid of 10.5 % rate is a no brainer...
yes... can anyone identify the "outlier" in the first 10 S&P names by Mkt cap? How long does an "outlier" remain outlying in semi-efficient capital markets?
look at auto manuf metrics.
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=121&f=cap_largeover,idx_sp500&o=-marketcap
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=121&f=cap_largeover,ind_automanufacturers&o=-marketcap
The coming sales figures over the next few qtrs will tell where value is headed imo. If VW sales are close or better in the ev and phev space, the question will be "Why is Tesla more valuable than VW let alone more than all the others like Daimler, BMW Gm etc combined?
One can get monthly data for nine EU countries. Tesla's mkt share if falling off a cliff over the last three years. Over 30% to less than 3% so far for 2021. Look at the leaderboards... VW, Audi, Renault etc
https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL
My guess is the SP goes below $200 which is higher than VW but less than Toyota and Tesla SP would still be too high. This also assumes that the software company fantasy is de-fantasied by competitor level 2 capability. Same with power/solar... min additional value imo. The only reason for the additional $400 bil mkt cap was S&P passive buying. As SP decreases, passive funds decrease positions for weighting purposes adding to more downward pressure on prices. Wall St knows when the tide changes so I expect more aggressive short players to slam it. Who knows, they may get it right this time.
wonder why tesla got crushed by vw when id3 came out....
skip to the 21:51 mark
Watch this...
https://insideevs.com/features/466626/tesla-model-y-third-row-with-people/
maybe rename to Model G for guillotine...
otherwise great use for transporting wizard of oz actors in a remake...
watch this one vid... look at the competition coming... and this is just the start
The coming car crash will be spectacular. Who knows how high Icarus soared before his wings melted away? But what do I know? It’s required 22 years to see my stocks grow 10x. Tesla has done that in a year and a week. Better go back to letter writing…30/30
— Christopher Bloomstran (@ChrisBloomstran) January 9, 2021
lookie here... sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell
https://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=14620352&RcvdDate=1/14/2021&CoName=TESLA,%20INC.&FormType=4&View=html
and not waiting for that $900?
maybe the richest man in the world furloughing workers during the holidays and then asking them to work for free might be a clue...
another class action filed yesterday over batteries
article on battery degradation...
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-battery-capacity-loss-warranty/?utm_source=twitter&src=socialflowTW&utm_campaign=socialflowTWCD&utm_medium=social-media
https://www.plainsite.org/dockets/4g1rwog2a/california-central-district-court/fish-v-tesla-inc/
pennies have value because of the copper. eom
did a fart sound come out of the touchscreen when the recall news hit?
where does this open tomorrow? ... and don't forget other potential recall for 140k cars backed followed by class action lawsuit...
for a company that doesn't advertise, they are about to get a whole lot of publicity which will help competitors..... the brand already has some quality issues...
enjoy... just waiting for the front end suspension one...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-safety/u-s-asks-tesla-to-recall-158000-vehicles-for-touchscreen-failures-idUSKBN29I35K
do you think the numbers will be good when elon the great furloughed workers and asked them to donate their time to deliver cars? really, the richest man in the world asking folks making $20 an hour to work for free.... talk about scrooge squared...
and it's not just the sales that counts for earnings... it's the earnings... so many other ev's sold in EU so fewer if any credits... selling at discount means margins squeezed.... welcome to the auto biz...
german factory... significantly delayed
competition coming in droves with better options
look at all the reviews coming out on the new cars....
do you think the growth story is intact with the following "trendline"...
https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL
the three analysts PT increases were from analysts that participated in previous capital raises... guess elon wants to do the dine and dash with robinhood money..
elon ain't looking out for you... elon needs your help to prop up the price so he can sell... all imo
as in maybe get a building permit...
https://www.rbb24.de/studiofrankfurt/wirtschaft/tesla/2021/01/gruenheide-tesla-produktionsstart-unrealistisch.htm/alt=amp.html?__twitter_impression=true
and why the need to expand if VW is crushing tesla in EU?
https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Brands/Bar/All-time%20by%20Years/2021
how do you think the street responds when the growth story pops?
A picture is worth a thousand words or maybe loss of $500 bil in market cap once the overall mkt figures this out.
https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL
so who got so excited when the analyst increased his price target to $800 when it was trading at $880.... just curious...
Agree...
VW going whole hog in EV... pretty much all auto manuf going whole hog in non ICE...
Look at all the brands and market caps... look at all the dealerships etc which make it easy for customers... anyone notice all the ev commercials during the football games... the days of "word of mouth" is over and advertising costs money...
The only free advertising will come from class action lawsuits moving forward and the Solar City trial in March...
And fleet buyers which is where the big sales happen need dealerships for service... and that a car can reach 60 mph in 3 seconds is a bad thing when you want to rent out thousands of cars....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1HflVng6sYIb6Gs4pOKiDGtqU5YJ2-hgdM4pRNaT62gs/htmlview#
A short story. Four pictures worth 4,000 words.$TSLA or $TSLAQ? pic.twitter.com/4SijS7rl1p
— Drew Dickson (@AlbertBridgeCap) January 5, 2021
I think at the end of the day Jeff Skilling will be a better comparison. All imo.
top of the morning to you....
good luck with wall st analysts on the sell side... all the recent upgrades were from underwriters that participated on latest capital raises...
here is a good analysis... note the recent MS analyst attributes $37 per shares for insurance which is more than all of Allstate's valuation.
The marriage of auto insurance & Tesla. Fiction or non? It must be hell on the sell side when you have a sell recommendation on a stock that takes off like a SpaceX rocket. Or on a company raising capital. POMO (Pressure Of Missing Out)? So it seems. Yet another $TSLA thread...1/
— Christopher Bloomstran (@ChrisBloomstran) January 9, 2021
or $600 if these stories pan out...
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/tech/apple-car-hyundai-partnership/index.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-and-hyundai-plan-to-collaborate-beta-car-say-reports-2021-1
this really upsets the apple cart for tesla...
what will pop the bubble... i think we are getting closer....
regarding comments regarding stimulus checks keeping things floating... concerns on capitol hill regarding stock mkts, margin buying and how previous bubbles wrecked the economy for years... expect new sec folks to actually pay attention this time...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-hyundai-agree-electric-car-121315958.html
https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Bar/All-time%20by%20Years/2020
Game over? The game just started and Elon's first mover advantage is gone and now he's getting crushed.
From data available so far as many countries still reporting, Model 3 is getting crushed by VW id3 which just started selling in Sept last year.
For Netherland, Sweden, Norway, France and Germany, Tesla Model 3 sales were 42,822 in 2020 versus 65,287 in 2019 or a 34% drop. VW id3 reported sales of 43,854 in 2020 with only four months of sales as it came on the market. That is just one model that looks to be taking market share. The Tesla model s and x don't even show up in the top 20 anymore so you can't even get numbers on sales. I guess the "Plaid" model S will boost sales when the top luxury models from Audi, Porshe etc come out.
And ask yourself this question, how many pickup buyers are going to switch from the most popular pickup made to buy a Cybertruck? OK Jay Leno doesn't count because he has a hundred million to spend and likes weird cars. My guess is a Ted Nugent type might buy one as well.
https://insideevs.com/reviews/377328/ford-f150-electric-truck-details/
IMO Cybertruck will be one of the biggest flops in auto history...
My guess and based on the potential doom in share price once the market sees the dominance and growth story has faltered due to competition, Tesla raises more capital before the earnings call. You would think he would be trying to unload some of his shares before the potential flop. Maybe the tweet about what he should do for humanity with all his wealth gives you a clue and him a reason to unload. Also the recent sell side analysts upgrades usually portends a capital raise. Look at MS history of upgrades followed shortly thereafter by a capital raise.
A big capital raise for the purchase of a Daimler or BMW brand gives dealer support which is important for customer service and fleet buyers which is a big part of the market. IMO that becomes a problem because the company will definitely get valued by auto manuf metrics like price to sales of less than 1 vs tesla 29 and p/e ratio's of 25 (on a good day) vs over 200 for tesla. No more moon dust unicorn change the world fairy metrics.
Welcome to the grind of the auto biz where one is lucky to get a 10% profit margin.
The value is in the "story" and the story may not have a happy ending.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/09/teslas-crazy-valuation-in-1-chart/
When this is all over, IMO Musk may have created one of the biggest legal ponzi schemes ever by taking advantage of inexperienced investors using youtube and robinhood to fuel the euphoria with his save the planet BS. If he was so worried about humanity, why does Tesla allegedly cover up safety issues and demand buyers sign nondisclosure agmts before fixing cars.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-accused-of-ignoring-and-covering-up-suspension-defects-in-class-action-lawsuit/
Do yourself a favor and study market bubbles and how they end. The folks on the left side of the peak get to buy stuff like cars, guitars and houses and pay off student loans. The folks that fall of the cliff go thru life asking "why didn't I sell when I was up by ......
Be careful what you ask for... S&P inclusion will be the gift that will keep giving. Musk will no longer be able to paint rainbows to his youtube cult and evade institutional shareholder questions with smoke and mirror answers. Way too much institutional money in the game now. The financial performance numbers will be under a microscope and the "save the planet" narrative will be exposed. Solar City trial goes forward in March and Musk role in buying failed biz to save his own skin with Tesla shareholder cash will be high publicity given the richest man in the world title. And the Solar City biz ain't what it's cracked up to be per recent article. And doesn't justify the save the planet valuation.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394163-sun-is-setting-on-teslas-solar-business
In addition the growth story on Tesla cars will be questioned if sales in Europe, the most advanced EV markets in terms of competition come to light. If the story and share price is based on rapid growth, what happens if that story evaporates? Any decline or even flat sales will be a problem for Tesla. And any channel stuffing will backfire given the amount of eyes on the game. Imagine an NFL game with 80 referees on the field.
Given the amount of margin the robinholders have, things can get ugly fast. And once the share price declines, the passive holders will start dumping to match weighting over the year. And I can't wait for the cybertruck to start "not selling"... And the analyst reports like MS that values Tesla's nonexistent insurance biz more than Allstate's market cap hopefully will come back to haunt AJ like the infamous analysts of the dotcom bubble.
And two material class action suits regarding screens and suspension combined for over 200k cars filed last year will start move forward and will bring publicity on product quality and company coverups. I can just see the headlines... richest man in the world looses $10 bil today ... and today and today....
Yes economic gravity can be suspended for only so long.
As well as higher corporate tax rates. EOM
VW id.3 started sales in Sept .... so 4 months id.3 sales vs 12 months tesla...
gotta feeling 2021 is gonna be tough..
another problem to fix...
https://insideevs.com/news/464084/tesla-model-3-model-y-heater-problem/
Keep that fairy dust blowing. Musk paints rainbows like Claude Monet paints landscapes. Gotta do something to distract from impending DCF updates based on probable new gross margin assumptions as a result of significant price cuts announced in China.
I keep hearing comparisons to the dot com bubble.. (I was a wounded warrior believing all the new metrics... page views etc) Just wondering if EM ends up being the "Jeff Skilling" of this era.... all imo
WSJ Headline...
"Cleared Hurdle Still Leaves Tesla Stock in Ludicrous Mode"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cleared-hurdle-still-leaves-tesla-stock-in-ludicrous-mode-11609622182
Couldn't read the full art but headline sums it up...
he's a dreamer and folks have been paying a premium for dreams... the S&P reality police are ready for the new year.... will there be a rush to the exits to lock in gains before everyone else does.... or does robinhood save the day? my guess is fund price pressure is off for a while....
a quick back of napkin analysis on potential impact on margins and cost reduction necessary for between zero gross margin and back to 21%... not an accountant so pls correct me if my calcs are incorrect...
So they need to reduce costs by 11% to earn no margin or reduce 30% to get the 21% margin back or somewhere in between...
Car price $60,000 30% $42,000
Gross margin 21% 0%
Cost $47,400 11% $42,000
Car price $60,000 30% $42,000
Gross margin 21% 21%
Cost $47,400 30% $33,180
And keep in mind any corporate tax increases actually add value to the NOL's... if I can recall pretty substantial... prob the only current benefit from bavi is in the tax losses... woo hoo... just the cherry on top ...
I revisited the NYU Stern School of Biz prof that has a do it yourself valuation.... this guy is sharp and is on MSNBC all the time. Pretty good analytical model on coming up with projected cash flows and value.
The valuations are at the 13:44 mark
Given the margin pressure and increased competition, I put it in the Daimler like auto plus tech category which gives it the $211 value presplit or $42 per share today. My guess the price cuts are really going to impact gross margins...
And does one think they will be able to get $10k for software while in a price war and the marginal cost of software goes to zero... can you say free software... the story is starting to fall apart imo...
the 500k sales plus or minus was already baked in. The 30% price cuts announced today was not.... and commenting on having better quality signals to me that quality is an issue.... and when Tesla calls Chinese drivers bad and the reason the front ends fail in an attempt to avoid a recall, one has to think of their word of mouth advertising... sounds like the word of mouth needs a few breath mints...
https://www.shine.cn/biz/company/2101022609/#:~:text=US%20electric%20carmaker%20Tesla%20has,yuan%2C%20down%20from%20535%2C000%20yuan.
There are several class actions going on including the screens and computer chips.... also related to safety. I think the forced non-disclosure agreements will come back to haunt them, particularly with the safety issues.... like the "Me Too" movement, only for Tesla cars...
As for value issues moving forward .... throw in the big price cuts in China due to competition ... welcome to the price wars of the car biz...
Filed Nov 20, 2020.
https://www.classaction.org/media/williams-v-tesla-inc.pdf
Interesting reading.... particularly the NHTSA complaints...
I'm quite sure the NHTSA will side with Tesla and say the Chinese are bad drivers and that the safety issues don't apply to the USA. And China still recalled the cars....
I find it interesting that the attorneys quote Elon tweet in 2016 ... 37 of 40 NHTSA complaints were fraudulent...
From
https://mccunewright.com/practice-areas/class-actions/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-suspension-defects/
"In fact, Elon Musk himself claimed on Twitter that, “37 out of 40 faulty suspension claims made to the NHTSA were fraudulent.”
The lawsuit includes the NHTSA complaints.... I doubt the attorneys would put fraudulent claims in a lawsuit of this magnitude...
You have to wonder how much liability is out there...
S&P funds buy billions at north of $650 per share... what if the court determines Tesla covered up problem.... one would think the fund managers would go after Tesla.... widows and orphans money... if anything the class action attorneys
would have a field day.... no wonder Elon wants to go to mars...
Could this be the reason for the additional capital raise? Seems like a lot of potential claims on the horizon....