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Everybody should watch BZUN this week. The stock is ready to move! Watch their Q2 results on Friday!
That doesn't make life easier for short-position owners!
I realy think that 6,70 USD was the bottom! It may take a few days to break through the resistance around 7,60 USD and to close above the 50MA but once this has been done we will climb higher!
There is support for the daily on the weekly chart as well! I think the downmove on the weekly has finished. There are several indicators actually turning from bearish to bullish!
Let's wait for new infomations about institutionl holders. Let's see who has increased their positions last quarter! Might become interesting!
There is a good chance that Escobal will restart mining next year. The balance sheet looks strong and next year they expect to generate free cash flow even without Escobal. I believe it's a pretty good entry point at this level! There are not many mid-tier producer with similar potential!
Even without Escobal the balance sheet shows net assets of around 1.8 billion USD with a market cap of 0.85 billion. Seems to be a good deal imo. Just another year of patience needed!
What are you talking about? You don't have any clue! Primero has already been sold. A little more paper work and by the end of May we will receive shares of First Majestic Silver in exchange for our Primero shares!
San Dimas is a wold class mine! The biggest problem was not with the union but with WPM. The old streming contract forced Primero to give away nearly 35% of possible revenue and in the past they even were profitable despite the burden of one of the most awful streaming contract in the mining sector!
First Majestic has a new and way better streaming contract and San Dimas will become a real cash cow over the next 2 years!
And First Majestic has very good contacts to government and a good relationship to the local unions!
I expect AG to double within the next year with silver remainign in the 16-17 USD range. And if silver flies AG will skyrocket!
Why? I think there is a good chance for his prediction to become true.
Today is our last day as Primero. From tomorrow on we will be "First Majestic Silver" at an exchange rate of 1:0,03325!
I think it could take a few weeks for your broker to change the shares but it will happen when the deal will be finalized in todays shareholder meeting!
I don't understand why you still care about Primero? PPPMF is already connected to AG!
I would realy like to see your prediction come true but I can't believe it.
First Majestic at 100$ per share? What is your prediction for silver in this case?
You should all take a look at First Majestics webside and read the San Dimas Presentation PDF!
This deal will double AG-shares this year at least!
San Dimas will be profitable from the beginning with AgEQ - AISC around 10$ and with the biggest production of their mines! They will produce 30% more AgEQ ounzes this year with low costs!
Great deal!
This is a great deal for every Primero shareholder who bought past 10th of August. You will get 0.22 USD per Primero share in First Majestic Silver shares and with San Dimas and the changed WPM Silver purchase agreement the shares of AG will double at least this year!
San Dimas is one of the biggest mines in Mexico and will now be very profitable again!
Very good deal for First Majestic.
San Dimas is a great asset! The biggest problem for Primero was the SPA with WPM which was one of the most expensive in the mining sector. I already took a look on the new stream and that will be a big reduction for WPM cashflow on quarterly basis, which is compensated by the 151 million USD in First Majestic shares!
With the new streaming agreement San Dimas will produce great cashflow for AG from the beginning!
DEAL FINISHED!
First Majestic Silver takes over Primero!!
Each Primero share will get 0,00325 shares of First Majestic Silver which means 0,23 USD per Primero share!
There was good volume on TSX today. 2.6 million shares traded today.
We haven't seen that much volume for months!
Maybe good news tomorrow! We will see!
My opinion:
1. 70% chance they sell San Dimas over the next few weeks
2. 20% chance Primero will operate San Dimas in the future with a changed WPM- silver purchase agreement
3. 10% chance for bankruptcy
Position 1 and 2 will mean some value for shareholder!
As Primero and WPM both stated: San Dimas is a world class asset and there is a lot of healthy interest for the mine but the key factor realy is the bullshit streaming deal with WPM. The actual silver purchase agreement is a high burden for the mine operating company and it means a dispute with the mexican tax authorities, too. WPM stated: "Primero's problems are solvable. There are solutions on the table and it's up to Primero to choose!"
Last Quarter report Q3/2017 San Dimas produced 17.070 Ounces of gold and 1.05 million ounces of silver! That would be around 39 million USD even in a bad quarter if there wasn't the bullshit streaming deal. With the streaming deal they just received around 26 Million USD revenue! The actual streaming deal is one of the most expensive in the mining sector. Very bad for Primero!
So the key factor is WPM: San Dimas could be very very profitable again with a changed streaming deal! WPM is willing to change the deal but they want compensation and in my opinion they want a new mining company to operate San Dimas. Primero management made several realy bad decissions over the last years and WPM is not willing to reward Primero for their incompetence. Primero will be kicked out of the game for their incompetence but the question is: How much money will Primero receive for leaving the gamefield on their own feet or will WPM knock Primero down and Primero will be left dead on the field?
So my speculation: WPM will choose a way through the middle! We will get around 50% of book value, which is still much more than actual marketcap and the new operator of San Dimas will get a changed streaming deal!
BTW: I expect Q4 will be much better than Q3 and perhaps Primero payed almost the RCF back or refinanced the remaining RCF. That would bring them in a much better position in negotiations!
We will see in the very near future!
Where do you see a 10xer?
Do you expect Primero can continue as an operating miner or do you expect a sell of San Dimas finalized next week?
There is still the fate of Banro on the table? They still could fill for bancruptcy, but I doubt that. They are in a much better position than BAA was.
Primero's 3rd Quarter was not bad and I expect the 4th quarter to be even better!
I expect them to sell San Dimas next week, because I think WPM wants a new miner for their stream and wants to punish Primero as well. WPM is playing hard ball and they hold axe to cut this knot!
Primero was a mess and management knows it as well. Conway wants a final deal and will shut the door for a last time imo!
I expect a 3xer to 5xer but would take a 10xer as well!
This mess will end in a couple of weeks! We actually have still book value of 179 million and a market cap of 12 Million! So perhaps there will some meat left on the bone for retail shareholder!
So we are now in the final phase of the negotiations.
We have book value of 171 million USD, so will there be anything left for Primero-Shareholders after all the dust of this mess has settled?
I'm still of the opinion that the company will be sold over the next few weeks. Actual shareholders equity is 171 Million, so there should be value for shareholder! Market cap of 14 Million USD is way to low imo!
Big volume yesterday only a few minutes befor the bell!
News:
Primero Mining Corp. ("Primero" or the "Company") (TSX: P) today announced that the Company has agreed in principle with its lenders to an extension of its revolving credit facility ("RCF") and guarantee provided by Wheaton Precious Metals Corp., previously maturing on November 23, 2017. The maturity of the RCF will be extended to December 1, 2017, providing the Company with the ability to continue negotiations surrounding its previously announced strategic review process and the possible divestiture of its San Dimas mine in Mexico. There can be no certainty that these discussions will result in a resolution acceptable to all stakeholders.
Seems like some buying is coming in at Toronto Stock Exchange!
A rising gold price may help!
Q3 has been published:
The numbers were in line!
Interesting: More Vat return in October than I expected! Cerro del Gallo has been sold for 15 Million!
If you look close on the Q2 finanacials after the big impairment last quarter you can clearly see that they valued Black Fox at 35 Million, Cerro del Gallo at 15 Million and San Dimas at 239 Million at the end of quarter 2. These valuations were the direct results from the offers they received during their strategic review process!
So there seems to be an offer for San Dimas of around 239 Million but the buyer wants to change the silver purchase agreement!
Without debt this would leave Primero with around 50 Cent cash for every share and we are traiding around 7 Cent!
Looks like an opportunity imo!
BTW: They cancelled the conference call for today! The reason? Perhaps they do not want any information conserning San Dimas to leak!!
Today they will publish their Q3 - financials and perhaps some updates conserning future of the company!
Anything from -50% to +500% is possible tomorrow!
What can we expect tomorrow?
Sandstorm published their numbers and with an 8% stream agreement we can expect around 17k ounces from Black Fox for the last time.
WPM got around 1 Million ounces of silver from San Dimas, so we expect around 17k ounces AuEq from san Dimas as well.
McEwen said in their Q3 discussion: They were interested in San Dimas as well, but they first had to digest Black Fox!
WPM said in their Q3 discussion:
Kevin Fu
First off just want to say thank you for the additional detail breakout of the other categories for production and sales quite helpful. Just a few questions from me, on San Dimas with Primero’s credit facility coming due in a couple weeks. Any thoughts as we approach to that deadline?
Randy Smallwood
Yes, I mean its Randy here Kevin it’s, we’re supportive in terms of working with Primero. We’ve been pretty clear about the fact that as long as progress is being made towards a solution here that we would extend that guarantee, and so we’re hopeful that Primero keeps making progress.
Anita Soni
And then, secondly in terms of have ever had your actual title on the royalty or the stream tested in bankruptcy court?
Randy Smallwood
We have in the past we’ve got a very strong security position on San Dimas. So this is a little bit different every, every partnership is different. You know, our hopes are that, we do see there is a solution here and we’re just waiting for Primero to act on that solution that would have avoid any of this kind of process, but that is up to Primero. But our security being, second rank behind the debt and the fact that we’ve guaranteed that top level debt puts us in a very, very good position with respect to this asset, hope we never have to use though.
Anita Soni
And so at this stage - I mean would we expect another extension or is that’s the 23rd is the deadline?
Randy Smallwood
Well the 23rd is the deadline, we’ve always been very clear that – in fact that's why we provided the guarantee in the first place. We’ve been very clear about being supportive to Primero as they worked their way through this process. What I can tell you is that the asset does have healthy interest, and so there is lots of – there is opportunities here and now it is up to Primero to choose their own path. We’re willing to work with them and we have been working with them and we’ll continue to work with them to hopefully get them, to take one of these paths, but they have one their choices so.
So my conclusion is that Primero still has several opportunities to solve their problems! Their biggest burden and mistake was Black Fox. They lost hundreds of millions with Black Fox. San Dimas always was their key asset and is actually valued at 239 Million USD. This valuation is based on the offers they received from potential buyers.
The whole company is actually valued at 179 Million! That is around 90 Cent per share and it is actually traiding around 0,07! Am I the only one thinking that this is way to cheap?
There are some additionally risks like the tax dispute, so I think around 30 to 50 Cent is a possible price one can get for the whole company today!
And last: I think all discussions with WPM and potential buyers/partners are already done! Primero now has to choose between selling San Dimas, selling the whole company or trying to find new finaciers or partners to remain as an independent company.
WPM has already signed their will to adjust the streaming agreement!
Tomorrow will be interesting!
Very good! Perfect starting point for buying BRK! Time is on your side my friend!
Berkshire made 884319% profit in per share book value and 1972595% in per share market value from 1965 to 2016! This made Warren one of the richest people on earth and you can paticipate by simply buying BRK and leaning back!
How old are you?
A good question!
Perhaps too many stupid people are walking around on mother earth! I was one of them by myself, but I think learned my lesson!
This is Warren Buffet's holding company and the ultimate SWAN-stock! (Sleep Well At Night).
I'm active in the stock market since 2005! I made a lot of money and I lost a lot of money but my biggest mistake was that I once thought I could be as successfull as Warren Buffet by myself!
I spent thousands of hours reading financials and collecting informations, buying and selling stocks, feeling fear and greed!
I should have bought BKR from the beginning and I would have made at least the same profit by simply enjoing my life!
So be a smart guy, buy BRK, lean back and enjoy the show! Time and Warren will be the keys for your success!
By the way: 1500 BRK-B shares represent 1 BRK-A share. You can convert your BRK-A share into 1500 BRK-B shares but there is no way to do it the other way! The A-Shares have higher voting rights at the annual shareholders meeting!
A bancruptcy of Primero will definately have an effect on WPM.
Primero's stream stands for 14% of WPM's NAV. So I don't exactly know what will happen when Primero declares bankruptcy but it will definately have an effect on WPM's shareprise. So wouldn't it be better for WPM to buy Primero or to help them?
Some interesting conversation from the WPM Result Discussion:
John Tumazos
Thank you. Could you just review what the old formula was on San Dimas and the new formula, first question? Second question, I’m thinking a little bit of your friends at Sandstorm taking a 30% stake in a project. Sometimes when you're restructuring the streams, the operating company, isn't the strongest one in the world, would you ever just take over a project and run it as opposed to conceding a stream?
Randy Smallwood
Okay. John, Unclear on the old formula versus new formula, what I can tell you at the San Dimas is the current stream agreement gives us 100% of the silver production up to 6 million ounces per year and then 50% of whatever is produced over that. That was an amendment from the very – the original agreement, which we had with Goldcorp where it was just 100% of the silver production.
For the first four years, the Primero had the asset. That was a lower sharing threshold. That was over a fixed time period. It was designed to give Primero a firm foundation to build on as they started into the operating space. So yes, the current formula is that we received 100% of the silver up to 6 million ounces and then share 50% of that after that. There's obviously a bunch of discussions with some of the people involved in there, some of the other companies involved in strategic either Primero is competing, but none of those have been finalized and it has to be to the agreement of ourselves to Primero obviously and to whoever actually ultimately steps into the space.
Going to the second question. Our business model is not an operating business model. We tend to think that there's a bit of a different mindset that's required to be successful with that and we tend to prefer leaving that in the hands of the operators themselves, so not a lot of interest in terms of stepping in and doing this and taking over operations.
We would if we had to in terms of protecting our shareholders value, but it would never be a long-term vision, it would be something that would only be done if absolutely required. We don't see that as being required. We do think that there's a healthy process going on with San Dimas and there's a lot of interest in that asset and we look forward to getting away through this one.
John Tumazos
Thank you.
Randy Smallwood
Thanks John.
Anita Soni
Good morning. It’s Anita Soni from Credit Suisse. So my question is a follow-up for John's on San Dimas. So I think you indicate – both you and Primero indicated in your press releases that you're working on restructuring the deal, but there's no guarantee that you come to a solution. So what happens with the guaranteed credit facility if you do not come to a solution before that guarantee is up?
Randy Smallwood
Well we step in and supported Primero by providing a guarantee on that because it was due to expire back in July or earlier this year. And we asked them how much time they needed to get through their strategic review process and we agreed on November being the timeframe.
And so that's – as far as our guarantee is therefore – and therefore that's the timeline that Primero has to work with in terms of working their way through the strategic review process. We don't intend to – I mean the reason we provided the guarantee was to give Primero enough time to work their way through the strategic review. And so it comes down to their desire to work their way through this process.
Anita Soni
And second question, so they also announced the sale of Black Fox. Was that in line with what your expectations on how the strategic review would go?
Randy Smallwood
Yes, I mean Black Fox has been – we don't know – we don't have access to the asset, it's off directly. We knew it was one of the assets in their portfolio that put a lot of effort into it and a lot of capital into it. And unfortunately, aren’t going to see a lot of return on that investment.
In terms of value, it's not far off of what we expected it to be worth and so that money from the Black Fox sale goes directly against the revolver. So I think it ultimately lessens the amount owing on this revolving credit facility that's due in November. So that's a positive. So yes, we're quite comfortable with that.
Anita Soni
All right. And last question, any further intelligence you're sort of – do you have any sense of when the Mexican tax authorities will come up with the decisions? I think it was around the same time that this credit facility guarantee expires?
Randy Smallwood
Again, it's something that's in Primero’s hands in terms of working with. We've received a number of different guidance’s on that from Primero. I can tell you it's still an active process. They've still also got substantive VAT and some income taxes that are outstanding down there, some debt refunds that are outstanding.
So it's a combination of a number of different things down in Mexico that are outstanding. Yes, unfortunately I can't give you any firm guidance on that. What I can tell you is that through the strategic review process, there's a number of parties that have studied it and feel it's a manageable issue.
Anita Soni
All right. Thank you very much.
Randy Smallwood
Thanks Anita.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Rollins with RBC Capital. Your line is open.
Dan Rollins
Yes, thanks very much. Randy, just wanted to get your feeling just on yesterday's Primero’s press release, obviously challenging share price move yesterday. But they also noted that they're going to be cutting spending in the capital side on that asset. And we do know that’s an asset that really needs a lot of capital to continue to occur. The cutback on spending, does that change the impetus to get a deal done from year end with either Primero or third-party within this sort of restructuring process on going?
Randy Smallwood
Well, the timing here is not in our control. The timing is in Primero’s control. And I think there's a number of different issues. The cutback, given that the RCF is due in November. I think that they've got some deadlines coming up that they have to work their way around. And it's up to Primero as to how rapidly they move their way through that and get there.
What we've seen is some healthy interest in this asset. We think that there's a way forward through here. We've been supportive all the way through and we've made some proposals that we think – our objective is to come through this and make sure that the asset is well set up to continue the long history of successes that San Dimas has had, and we're going to do everything we can to do that. Unfortunately, we just don't control the timing. These are the decisions that Primero has to make and we're ready to work with them.
MK 20 million USD for a 140000 Ounce producer! Unbelievable!
Okay guys, I just got of the phone from the Primero Investor Relations. The drop in shareprice is just because of the delisting! They are not facing bancruptcy! Both mines are producing fine!
Operationally everything is fine! Negotiations with WPM are going on! They are hard negotiating the SPA! They can't understand why the market doesn't liked the sell of Black Fox. They realy thought the sell would be good news for the company and would help the shareprice!
Tax payments from the Mexicans are coming!
They actually mine only the known high grade veins without doing much exploration. They are focussed on generating positive cashflow.
Black Fox is sold, but the contracts have to be signed, so until then we mine as much gold as possible from Black Fox!
His words: "Bankcrupty is not an option!"
I think I had to open a new board, because the company was delisted from NYSE yesterday.
WPM is the key here! The Silver Stream Agrement of WPM weights high on Primero!
So the most important questions here are:
What will happen to the Stream Agreement if Primero declares bankruptcy? Will WPM loose the silver stream as well or will they get the remaining assets?
Primero will not be able to sell Sam Dimas without changes in the agreement! But what would be the highest possible price for San Dimas?
Black Fox was sold for 35 Mill. That's way below the 200 Million Primero once paid and they Didn't make any money out of the mine. I think they actually don't do any exploration, so they generated profit from Black Fox last quarter. The same will happen this quarter because they reduced or cancelled exploration and are just focused on mining know veins and the stockpile.
ER tomorrow. Will be very interesting! I think we have a good chance to see positive quaterly results tomorrow!
The following information is from the just published second quarter earnings of Sandstorm Gold. Sandstorm is the Streraming Company for Primeros "Black Fox" mine: "Streams and royalties on Canadian mines contributed 6% fewer gold equivalent ounces to Sandstorm when compared to the second quarter of 2016. The change is primarily attributable to a decrease in gold equivalent ounces sold from the Diavik mine in the Northwest Territories, offset by increases from the Bachelor mine in Quebec and the Black Fox mine in Ontario."
So this means that Primero delivers more gold to Sandstorm in the second quarter. That means "Black Fox" increased production in Q2!
I took a first position here today! I have a feeling that we will get some good news in the near future!
Anybody interested in my package of 3300 WAMPQ-Escrows and 140.000 WAMUQ-Escrows? I offer them as a package for 2.000.000 (2 Million) USD! I'm not greedy!
I agree with you!
I have a lot of escrows and don't expect any payment!
I simply can't see billions coming back to escrows. The only possible value I can see is a deal for WMIH with the help of KKR!