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I’m not joking. I’ve made a killing fading MRC’s short positions. I might have found the holy grail.
Get the keto mojo blood test system. Very easy to use and you will know instantly if you are in Ketosis (.5 or higher).
When I first started keto it got as high as 4. Now my body is so efficient with ketones it never goes higher than 1 even when I fast for 2 days.
And like Cal, I have no problem getting into ketosis while taking Vascepa.
Everyone needs to relax.
You guys have not been paying attention.
What is the purpose of hedge funds like Baker Bros?
To make MONEY for their clients.
Do you guys really think they are just sitting with close to a billion dollars worth of stock and not making any money on it for the past year?
Of course they are. They are selling tons of calls and puts. They have made a killing doing it. They will continue to do it until they know the stock will be bought out.
Ask yourself what has this stock done like clockwork for almost every options expiration week? CLOSED AT OR NEAR MAX PAIN! This stock is EASILY manipulated because of a large percentage of retail investors/day traders.
Guess what Jan 17 is? The mother of all option expiration dates. Guess what the max pain is? $17! I was actually expecting a drop in price as we approached JAN 17... Though I didn’t know they would be able to get this close to max pain.
I also expected a lot of FUD to be released to aid them in this endeavor as we get closer to Jan 17 (JPM, UNH, etc). And I was not disappointed.
Baker Bro’s did not sell out when the price was trading above $26. If they sensed imminent danger, don’t you think they would have?
This should give you relief, as Baker Bros obviously believe the price will be much higher than $26 in the future. If I saw a 13G filed that showed baker Brothers have sold 80% of their position, THEN I might get worried.
It’s a sad reality, but this is the game. Options must die. Bakers are playing a long chess game, not checkers. They don’t care if their stock is worth 30% less today than a couple weeks ago because they know where it will be in the months ahead.
This is the final shakeout in my opinion.
If it were me, and I was playing the “game,” I’d let the final shakeout be patent litigation. Maybe news of not settling will be enough. Finally scare the last of the weak hands out. Simultaneously approaching 90% institution ownership and wiping out Jan 17 options.
Bottom line is, JT is executing his plan. The stock price has nothing to do with him. It is pure manipulation. Stocks that get bought out, almost always get bought out when no one expects it. Expect the same here.
Expect a HUGE 2020. But if you can’t handle it, grab an index fund instead.
Whenever someone else brings up some random study that refutes his belief he will claim the study was flawed because it was too small or for some other reason. Yet he does the same all the time. The FDA even laughed at him regarding this in his CP denial basically telling him, “Bro, you sent us a study about rats. GTFO”
“My Research is Crap” is great though. I’m fortunate he’s around. He’s made me a lot of money. Every time he shorts something with conviction I start buying. SRPT, AUPH, MDCO have been great MRC swing trades for me. I almost went in on PTON, but unfortunately, I kind of agreed with him on that one, it’s just an exercise bike with an iPad on top. Yet it still climbed. Damnit. He’s better on his long calls but my god he’s horrible on his shorts.
Thanks MRC. I owe you.
With love,
Mellow.
Their last game was a loss by a literal inch. This game was a win by a literal inch.
Unbelievable.
What an absolute joke.
PA’s are supposed to be only used for expensive medication’s where a cheaper one might work just as well. What replacement is there for Vascepa? Which isn’t even expensive! This is Cigna gaming the system.
Around 66% of prescriptions that get rejected at the pharmacy require prior authorization. When a PA requirement is imposed, only 29% of patients end up with the originally prescribed product—and 40% end up abandoning therapy altogether! Not only is this negative for pharmaceutical organizations, most importantly this causes frustration to patients who don’t get the medication that could best treat their condition, or who don’t get any therapy at all.
Thanks for bringing this up. I need to switch insurer’s and will make sure to avoid them like the plague.
Well said. But you always say things well.
Cal, not only are you a bull, but your balls are just as large.
Oh... maybe you replied to the wrong person then, because Cal is anything but that...
You think everyone who has ever bought AMRN shares pre reduce-it has posted on this board? Interested in your rational to think he’s not telling the truth. Because I know for a fact he is.
Main job of CEO: making major corporate decisions, managing the overall operations and resources of a company, increasing shareholder value
JT’s first day as CEO: Jan 2 2014
AMRN price: $1.88 (low)
JT 6 years later: Dec 13, 2019
AMRN price: $26.80 (high)
55% ANNUALIZED RETURN
S&P last 6 years: 10% annualized return.
If AMRN stayed at $26.80 for the next 20 years you’d finally match s&p’s return.
I think he’s doing just fine. Thanks JT and all you have done for the company. Special shout out to Elisabeth for dealing with us cry babies :)
In the case of Amarin, the athlete is so good, the college recruits even if serious :)
See Tevin Coleman.
Because they can no longer be first to market if they lose? Teva already got that.
GS made money off of the deal no matter what happens with the stock. How did they get ripped off? Also JT from the very beginning expected an adcom. Only until the very end did he say one was “unlikely” which EVERYONE thought.
And I can guarantee you GS made money off of the adcom. Just look at their 13F’s and you’ll find the clues.
I don’t think they got relatively nothing.
If AMRN wins, which they probably thought they would, they get to be the first generic to the market. Being first to market on a multi billion dollar drug is a pretty good deal.
Jesus. 637 days for Portugal.
Raf we need the remote control from
that Adam Sandler movie “click.”
The math already demands it to be honest.
Stock is down because of the laughable 2020 guidance. I love JT, and think he’s done an amazing job, but this is a growth company and you can’t guide with those kind of numbers when our valuation is where it’s at and not expect the stock to tank.
The price of any stock is always about the future. How many times have you seen a stock beat EPS and revenues but trades down 10% because they guided lower? Market doesn’t care about NOW they care about TOMORROW.
We had 80,000 scripts last week, it’s safe to assume by the end of December we should end above 95,000. 95,000 scripts itself will get you to around 650M next year!
Sorry, but it’s all about the benjamins now. You can only have above 10x valuations by showing incredible growth. And 650M on the low end doesn’t get the job done. It’s going to take huge beats and guidance increases to move back up without BO.
Again I love JT, but if he wanted to be conservative he could have said 750–800.
I bought more yesterday at mid $22 and will buy more if it dips into the $20’s because I think JT will have to raise guidance after Q4.
I used it for my dad last year with no insurance. Pretty sure it’s always been this way. Worked like a charm btw.
Yup. And like you said earlier, the halt was a blessing in disguise as people have time to digest this amazing detail in the label.
My dad will be able to get this label now because of that wording.
This is common practice.
Most brokers exercise in the money options at expiration unless you call and tell them not to.
I didn’t phrase it well. I’m referring to the 2020 numbers. I believe he guided way too low. Oh well.
Let me re-phrase. If we maintained our script numbers TODAY for all of 2020 without any growth, we would already be north of 500M. Hence the updated guidance is way way too low.
2020.
There is underpromise, and then there is this. With Sam’s script numbers TODAY we are on track for 550 million in revenue.
I agree with this. PCSK9 inhibitors and Vascepa, Blood pressure meds and Vascepa, Statins and Vascepa, all are game.
Amazing.....
Oppenheimer lol
It could. I’ve seen it before. Most recently with FDA’s approval of Duobrii by BHC. They announced in the afternoon and halted trading.
It’s not gonna happen, but if we do get a CRL it will only be for a DDI. If it drops 85% because of that, I will sell my wife and kids and buy AMRN.
Excellent post. Agree with most of everything.
Still do not agree with the FDA’s handling of the last ADCOM but have moved past it long ago. With the way they were advocating for us at the recent ADCOM you can tell they knew a “mistake” was made. Unfortunately, it cost lives.
Couple other things to add to why we should “RELAX”
Stock hit another 52 week high after 16-0 and Baker Brothers haven’t sold a significant amount of shares (and they easily could have with the volume). This tells you that they also believe the value of this company is significantly higher. And they have been on a ROLL.
Oppenheimer released a BS price target of $7. The desperation that someone wanted more shares cheap can be read in the charts. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but the volume following that Oppenheimer FUD was way more than it should have been. Stop losses were hit, retailers were had, and shares were transferred. Here we are now back in the 22’s and no one cares about Oppenheimer. They got the shares they wanted... for now.
A patent litigation loss would be catastrophic for the stock. Yet not only are Baker Brothers still here, institutional ownership is on the rise. Seems like billion dollar institutions think the patent case is a lock for us as well.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Woops MRC kept on averaging up his short position on that one.
Ouch :)
Wow. Doesn’t this reflect Veterans Day as well? Amazing. Next week it’s very possible we hit 80.
I’ve been saying this for a while. If they didn’t sell when it was at $24 pre offering, they must think it’s worth at least $30+ or waiting for a buy-out.
SK
Baker Brothers is a for profit hedge fund. They don’t have to hold anything long term. Most likely a play on AMRN Adcom results. Wouldn’t surprise me if they had access to briefing documents early.
I’ve seen them buy and dump stocks within a month all the time. Most recently ALRN. Rode it from .50 to $1 and dumped it at the top.
It is currently estimated that the global prevalence of NAFLD is as high as one billion[4]. In the United States, NAFLD is estimated to be the most common cause of chronic liver disease, affecting between 80 and 100 million individuals, among whom nearly 25% progress to NASH.
I was only able to get 2000 filled today at 21.33. The rest of my order remains open
:(
Sam,
Invesco bought Oppenheimerfunds and assumed their shares I believe. There is no current 13F filed by Oppenheimerfunds Inc.
So those shares seem to be double posted.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/invesco-will-buy-oppenheimerfunds-1539860950
I remember taking Acutane as a kid and one of the thing they had to monitor was my triglyceride levels not going to high as the drug can cause elevated levels.
I believe there are multiple drugs that can cause this. Maybe Vascepa could be used in these other drugs as well.