Merry CHRISTMAS Weekend to ALL~

DG, Have a Wonderful BLESSED Christmas Weekend~

Happy Christmas EVE and MERRY CHRISTMAS tomorrow!

Time to count Blessings, be happy and stay warm!

HO HO HO MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!

Baby, It Sure Is Cold Outside

Stay WARM~~

STAY WARM tonight, going to be frigid even in the morning.

A little snow, but Freezing BLAST creating 15-40 below with the wind chill!

YIKES!!!!!

Nope, expected the loss, a win would have been a nice shocker.

Should win tonight by a large margin @7 on BTN.

In a major world of doom if not when playing ELON?

All ya'lls cold ass weather coming here Friday, as Fl daughter flies in.
I'm not going anywhere until Tuesday, too cold and too
big of risk getting sick.

Stay healthy, and have a HO HO HO Weekend!

Awful, Kansas ate us for lunch, and dessert was This Is Our HOUSE!

Wishing YOU only the best of everything~

One of the best...

I'll Be Seeing You-DURANTE

Is this a joke? Or reality taking charge?

Two week notice, OMG!

Honestly I can understand, but definitely is NOT something
I want to see happen...

You have been a wonderful moderator and a great addition to this board.
SAD news indeed, and I am almost out of the picture here myself.
Goodness gracious, guess we shall see how it goes,

VERY Sad~~~~~!

My Sincere Condolences, God Bless,
and he can now rest in a Better Place.

Ut Oh! IU vs Kansas on Saturday= Lordy lordy

Will Jayhawks whoop our butt? (probably)

Matchups to Watch
This game is going to produce some fun individual matchups. Jalen Wilson and Jackson-Davis in the front court in a battle of KenPom Player of the Year candidates (Wilson is No. 2, Jackson-Davis No. 10) is the showcase. But Xavier Johnson and Dajuan Harris in a matchup of excellent passing guards and veteran floor generals is another worth watching.

From a team perspective, the game looks like it may be decided from the paint. The Hoosiers are excellent from inside the arc this season, with a two-point percentage of 58%, which is 15th-best nationally. But in both of Indiana’s losses, this definitely was not the case. IU only hit 11-31 (35.5%) from two against Rutgers and 19-44 (43.2%) in the loss to Arizona.

Meanwhile, the Hoosiers’ defense is holding opponents to just 43.7% shooting from two on the season, but Arizona was able to exploit IU’s defense and 21-38 (55%) from inside the arc. Indiana can also give up offensive rebounds because of that lack of size in the front court, so being able to extend possessions beyond one shot will be important for Kansas

Prediction
Kansas is coming off an impressive and emotionally charged game against Missouri but with a full week in between games, the Jayhawks should be rested. And Allen Fieldhouse is going to be a factor. This is going to be the loudest the arena has been so far this year. And while Indiana has played two road games already, this is a different level of hostile environment.

The Jayhawks match up well with the Hoosiers and it helps that Indiana is not going to take a ton of threes. Though Kansas better be ready to battle in the paint and rebound. The KU offense has been much better since coming back from the Bahamas and it’s hard to pick against the Jayhawks with AFH rocking. I’m going to say Wilson goes toe-to-toe with Jackson-Davis, Kevin McCullar continues his hot stretch, and Kansas eeks out a close win.

full https://www.si.com/college/kansas/basketball/indiana-vs-kansas-basketball-preview-a-blue-blood-battle-in-afh

I'm so sorry, I know it rips the heart~~

MEMORIES are forever

Everyone, do have a Blessed, Safe and Warm Friday into the Weekend~

(HUG someone today)

Here Comes the BUCK>Dollar Rallies as Risk-Off Tone Takes Stocks Lower: Markets Wrap

The rate outlook from the Fed belies hopes for dovish turn
Investors are parsing a bevy of US economic data Thursday

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/asian-stocks-to-open-lower-after-hawkish-fed-view-markets-wrap?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Goldman Sachs considering cutting bonuses by 40%: report-The cut would be the highest
for the investment firm since the 2008 financial crisis

Inflation has not peaked, it's in the 'core' of the economy: Goldman Sachs' Vassalou
Goldman Sachs Asset Management co-CIO for multi-asset solutions Maria Vassalou and Meridian Equity Partners senior managing partner Jonathan Corpina discuss how the Fed can reduce inflation without crashing markets, on 'The Claman Countdown.'

Amid economic uncertainty that is gripping Wall Street, Goldman Sachs may cut bonuses for approximately 3,000 investment bankers, according to a recent media report.


The Financial Times published a report on Wednesday, citing a senior source inside the investment firm, that chief executive David Solomon is considering slashing the bonus pool by at least 40%.

Previously, the outlet reported that rival firms JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America, might go through with a 30% cut. "I think we’re going to be worse than the Street," a senior Goldman insider told the Financial Times.

In September, Goldman Sachs laid off 500 employees as the financial sector continued to be rocked by the economic downturn. If implemented, the bonus cuts would be the largest since the 2008 financial crisis.

more https://www.foxbusiness.com/financials/goldman-sachs-considering-cutting-bonuses-report

Energy watchdog finds fossil fuel plant shutdowns creating long-term vulnerabilities to US electric grid

Retiring fossil fuel generation will 'exacerbate the capacity and energy shortfall risks' facing the U.S. grid

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/energy-watchdog-finds-fossil-fuel-plant-shutdowns-creating-long-term-vulnerabilities-us-electric-grid

YES Sir! We hear that song . How's the roads?

Bank of Mexico hikes rate to 10.50%, signals another increase coming

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-mexico-hikes-interest-rate-1050-signal-another-increase-coming-2022-12-15/

Union Pacific railroad shipping embargoes raise complaints
Union Pacific says the embargoes are only used when necessary

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/union-pacific-railroad-shipping-embargoes-raise-complaints

AR<> Thursday Links: urgent work

https://abnormalreturns.com/2022/12/15/thursday-links-urgent-work/

Page expire here, faster than normal? Having trouble with Posts

Mish<>Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for November.

45 Minutes ago

(Lots of Charts)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021.
Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2022, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year.
Gasoline stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from November 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year

The key phrase in the report is "adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes."

Retail sales took a seasonally-adjusted 0.6 percent dive in November. Every major category except food and food service declined.

Spotlight on Food

Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month 2022-11 Part 2
People spent less on gas and more on food. Not even the food departments of Costco and Walmart could save General Merchandise from a decline. Department stores were miserable.

Spotlight Motor Vehicles

Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month 2022-11 Part3
Motor vehicles and parts sales declined 2.3 percent.

What happened to that alleged pent up demand for autos due to part shortages?

Month-Over-Month Advances and Declines

Food Service: +0.9 percent
Food Stores: +0.8 percent
Gas Stations: -0.1 Percent
General Merchandise: -0.1 Percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: -0.2 Percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles: -0.2 Percent
Nonstore (Think Amazon): -0.9 Percent
Motor Vehicles: -2.3 Percent
Department Stores: -2.9 Percent

Food and Food services are the only areas where consumers increased spending in November.

Not to worry, Janet Yellen is bragging about how well the economy is doing.

Real vs Nominal Sales

Retail Sales from Commerce Department, Real Sales CPI-Adjusted by Mish
Retail Sales from Commerce Department, Real Sales CPI-Adjusted by Mish

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over-Month

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over-Month 2022-11
Key Real vs Nominal Points

Real (inflation adjusted) sales are well below where they were in March of 2021.
Real sales have decline 7 out of 11 months in 2022
Nominal sales have declined only 3 times in 2022
It's real sales, no nominal, that drives GDP
Fed and Congressional Stimulus Explained

Scroll to Continue
RECOMMENDED ARTICLES
Retail Sales: With Food and Shelter Soaring, Who Can Afford Anything Else?
Senator Warren's New Legislation Goes After Crypto Services and Private Bitcoin Wallets
The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023
Understanding Inflation

The Fed held interest rates too low too long.
Biden did a reckless final round of fiscal stimulus
Biden's eviction moratoriums put additional money in people's pockets.
Supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine added to the mix.
Then finally, consumers did a sudden switch from goods to services.
Economists are still struggling to understand inflation. What is it about that chart they fail to understand?

Note the yellow highlights. Spending can easily hold up in the early stages of recession.

That third round of unwarranted fiscal stimulus may still be playing a role.

The Price of Food Jumps Again in November, What's in Your Basket?

Year-Over-Year the CPI is up 7.1 percent.

Food and beverage, food at home, and food away from home are up 10.3 percent, 12.0 percent, and 8.5 percent respectively.

For discussion and several charts please see The Price of Food Jumps Again in November, What's in Your Basket?

Shelter

With Food and Shelter Soaring, Who Can Afford Anything Else?

Please see CPI Cools Significantly in November But Rent and Food Still Sharply Increasing for more CPI details.

And for shelter and rent analysis, please see Ignore the Pundits, Don't Expect Big Declines in the Price of Rent

Any more questions?

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/retail-sales-with-food-and-shelter-soaring-who-can-afford-anything-else

Dow plunges in perfect storm for stocks
Federal Reserve sees rates reaching 5.1% in 2023


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-plunges-in-perfect-storm-for-stocks

YIKES! Major sell-off day!~~

Social Security recipients may get a short-lived break in 2023

Published: Dec. 14, 2022 at 5:08 a.m. ET
By Paul BrandusFollow

The 2023 COLA and slowing inflation may help seniors catch up

You don’t need to be a math whiz to understand that when you get a 5.9% raise, but inflation exceeds that, that you’re going to lose ground. That, in a nutshell, explains the problem that millions of Social Security recipients have encountered this year.

Essentials like food, heating oil and natural gas, for example, have gone up more this year—in some cases a lot more—than the 5.9% cost of living increase that Social Security recipients got this year. This has led many seniors to make difficult choices, particularly the large number who rely heavily, if not exclusively, on their monthly Social Security check to get by.

Many economists think the inflation rate could drop further over the next few months, giving seniors even more of a cushion.
This year’s 5.9% boost was the biggest in four decades, according to Social Security Administration data. But Mary Johnson of the Senior Citizens League (SCL), a Washington-based nonpartisan group, calculates that boots-on-the-ground inflation—the true price that seniors are paying for essentials—has been sharply higher. By her reckoning, this means that the average monthly check this year, about $1,656, has actually been eroded, in real terms, by about $42 per month. That might not sound huge, but again, if that one check is all you have, it can mean difficult choices.

“Many retirees have been forced to spend through savings far more quickly than planned,” Johnson says. “And those without savings, they have turned to food pantries and low income assistance programs in higher numbers.”

Indeed, recent surveys of adults aged 65 and up by the SCL found that 33% of participants reported applying for food stamps or visiting a food pantry over the past 12 months, versus 22% in 2020. It also found that 17% have applied for assistance with heating costs versus 10% in 2020.

So it has been a difficult year. But could Social Security recipients get a break in 2023? The numbers suggest that this could be a possibility, though such a break would likely prove to be short-lived >>(Of course it will)

Cont

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-security-recipients-may-get-a-short-lived-break-in-2023-11670981826?mod=newsviewer_click

Stocks moving the most today: Moderna, Telsa, Lennar and more

Moderna was rising 2.1% after rising 19.6% on Tuesday after the company’s mRNA vaccine reduced deaths in melanoma patients.

Tesla (TSLA) was down 1.2% in premarket trading on Wednesday. The stock hit a new 52-week low on Tuesday at $158.03, and have fallen about 30% since CEO Elon Musk completed his acquisition of Twitter. Late Tuesday, an analyst at Goldman Sachs lowered the firm’s price target on Tesla to $235 from $305 but kept a Buy rating on the stock, The Fly reported.

QuantumScape (QS) fell 4.8% after shares of the solid-state battery technology company were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, The Fly reported.

United Airlines (UAL) tumbled 6.9% on Tuesday after the airline ordered100 Boeing (BA) 787 wide-body, twin-aisle jets with an option to purchase 100
more. The stock rose less than 0.1% early Wednesday.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/moderna-tesla-stock-market-movers-51670953547?mod=newsviewer_click

Lennar (LEN), the home builder, is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell Wednesday. The stock rose 1.2% in premarket trading.

Mish<>SBF Arrested , Charged With Wire Fraud, Securities Fraud, Money Laundering

Samuel Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas at the request of the U.S. Government.
MISH 12 HOURS AGO

https://mishtalk.com/economics/sbf-arrested-charged-with-wire-fraud-securities-fraud-money-laundering

Miners drag FTSE lower as U.S. inflation data boosts slower Fed rate- hikes hopes


Dec 14 (Reuters) - UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 index fell on Wednesday, dragged down by the losses in miners' shares, as lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data raised optimism for slower pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.

more https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/miners-drag-ftse-100-lower-us-inflation-data-boosts-slower-fed-rate-hike-hopes-2022-12-14/

If Fed sees over the mountain, peak is pure pain
December 14, 2022 4:38 AM

The Federal Reserve, investment world and wider economy now have a major sequencing problem.

Even by the Fed's own admission, the full force of its late but brutal credit tightening campaign to rein in decades-high inflation has yet to hit the economy. But inflation and business activity are already slowing faster than many had assumed.

So much so that after Tuesday's news of a second straight month of surprisingly soft U.S. consumer price inflation in November, futures markets are again toying with the idea that Fed rates will be lower at the end of next year than at the end of this one.

th headline annual CPI ebbing to 7.1% last month, and core rates undershooting forecasts too to just 6.0%, most economists seem confident inflation did indeed peak around midyear.

And what's assumed to be the Fed's favourite measure, core inflation readings from the personal consumption expenditures data series, may even have peaked as early as February - even if that's been sticky ever since at more than twice the 2% target.


As impressively, inflation expectations in inflation-protected bond markets show all two, 10 and 30-year gauges hovering around 2.3% - a sliver from Fed targets given that it's now averaging the 2% goal target over time. Equivalent public readings from New York Fed surveys are on the wane too.

Job done? Well, we're now in for another cat-and-mouse game between central bank and price setters in the wider economy and financial markets over how much more the Fed needs to do if the medicine it has dosed so far is already taking effect.

cont @
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/if-fed-sees-over-mountain-peak-is-pure-pain-2022-12-14/

Happy MOANday, long week ahead.....

Weber to be taken private by BDT Capital Partners for $8.05/share; deal expected to close in 1H23 (HALTED)

WEBR announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which investment funds managed by BDT Capital Partners LLC will purchase all of the outstanding Class A Shares that they do not already own, for $8.05 per share of Class A common stock of Weber, which implies a total enterprise value of $3.7 billion for Weber.

Premarket Movers: Horizon Therapeutics, Canadian Pacific Railway, Cheniere Energy Ptnr

December 12, 7:30 AM
Barron's

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/premarket-movers-horizon-therapeutics-canadian-pacific-railway-cheniere-energy-ptnr-01670848230?mod=newsviewer_click

Top Clicks this week on Abnormal Returns ~

(Good Reads)

https://abnormalreturns.com/2022/12/11/top-clicks-this-week-on-abnormal-returns-673/

Meme stocks are likely in big trouble in 2023: Morning Brief

By any traditional analytical measures, meme stock names such as GameStop, Bed Bath and Beyond, and Blackberry
are still wildly overvalued at current levels despite a rough 2022.

cont

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stocks-are-likely-in-big-trouble-in-2023-morning-brief-102506108.html

Thanks, just for a little bit! Brain getting hungry for facts and activity~~

Therapy comes early though

Why US Power Stations Are Vulnerable Targets For Attacks

(TOO DAM Many!)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/why-us-power-stations-are-vulnerable-targets-for-attacks/2022/12/09/cb0f8478-7811-11ed-a199-927b334b939f_story.html

Amgen to buy Horizon Therapeutics for $26.40 Billion

The company will pay $116.50 in cash for each Horizon share held, a premium of nearly 20% to the stock's last close.
A deal will add several approved drugs to Amgen's portfolio and could help counter the impact from rising competition for
its top-selling arthritis drug, Enbrel, from newer treatments and expected expiry of patents for the therapy in 2029.

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Sales of Enbrel have declined over the last four quarters, tumbling 14% in the latest reported quarter to $1.1 billion.

The offer values Horizon at $27.8 billion on a fully diluted basis, according to the company, which includes ordinary shares to be vested. Based on Reuters calculations, it values Horizon at $26.40 billion.

Shares of Dublin-based Horizon jumped 14.4% to $111.37 premarket.

They have gained 23.5% through Friday close since Horizon said in late November it was in preliminary talks with Amgen, Sanofi (SASY.PA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) for potential takeover offers.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/amgen-set-buy-biotech-firm-horizon-26-bln-valuation-bloomberg-news-2022-12-12/

Morning Everyone-Retail capitulation may be a new year's gift for the stock market,
says this analyst.

Last Updated: Dec. 12, 2022 at 6:44 a.m. ET

Ahead of a Fed decision, which holds a risk of more hawkish chatter from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, we’ll get a closely watched CPI report in a hefty week for data, as the clock ticks down on 2022.

What normally happens around this time of year is selling of losing stocks by investors to help offset capital gains elsewhere, points out Eric Liu, co-founder and head of research at Vanda Research. The proceeds are then reinvested, with exchange-traded funds being a vehicle of choice for investors to keep up their exposure.

But not so much this year, Liu notes:

It's all about retail capitulation,” which is actually a positive development for markets, says Liu. It puts retail positioning for U.S. stocks at a low for 2022 — about as attractive as it’s been the whole year.

But what Liu sees as crucial to the next leg higher for stocks is the so-called fast-money
community hedge funds and systematic or quant investors — who have been sitting on the sidelines for much of the past seven months:

But what could change this? A market-supportive Fed meeting and CPI data that doesn’t raise the hackles for one, said Liu. Even that may not be enough to lure those managers back in just seven trading days before the Christmas break.

But he says the first quarter of 2023 could be a different ballgame, based on history that shows big ld-ups often take place in the first three months of the year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson also sees a “terrific buying opportunity” in that period, though a mostly sideways S&P 500 by end next year.

Markets are also nearing some major momentum signals that would be triggered even if markets stabilized around current levels, said Liu.

bullish build-ups often take place in the first three months of the year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson also sees a “terrific buying opportunity” in that period, though a mostly sideways S&P 500 by end next year.

Markets are also nearing some major momentum signals that would be triggered even if markets stabilized around current levels, said Liu.

Liu notes that of the 10 CPI prints seen so far this year, nine have turned into tail events, low-probably events that took investors and markets by surprise. That means expectations for Tuesday's core CPI to land between 0.3% and 0.4% may be a tall order.

More and charts @
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-capitulation-may-be-a-new-years-gift-for-the-stock-market-says-this-analyst-11670845443

Arizona just too strong for IU, good experience though!