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Ike,
I think the company can also own the shorts by buying their shares and not selling them.
I think when the price went down to 17 cents, shorts were already recovered.
So I do not think there is a solid argument related to shorts.
We have been waiting for a TLD for more than a year.
One might argue it is the time required for publishing the paper.
But that is also kind of long for that too...
I am not sure why are we waiting and what are we waiting.
In a post in 2019 I asked several people if they would be upset if we do not get results by 2020 and many said yes.
Carlo Rago claimed that LP would be the CEO of the year 2020.
yes we had covid that delayed everything.
But The company last year said they are done with data lock.
so we have been here for the last year with no update, with no information, with nothing.
Linda said her priority is the P3 results. But I am not sure if what she is saying and she really is trying are the same.
I am curious if we are really waiting for TLD or something else.
They had enough time to do any sort of analysis to any thing.
They may have even data for analysing the offsprings of the patients who recovered from GBM.....
Ameeennnnn
Covid could have been the reason last year for only some period of time. But now although the pandemic is not ended yet, the businesses are operating fully functional.
They can try to use covid as an excuse but it does not count.
They have to come up with some updates regarding the trial results.
Is the paper submitted?
When are we expecting the TLD announcement?
There is a reason why there is ZERO institutional investment in NWBO.
It is because of a complete lack of transparency. For the last 6 years, since the halt in the trial, we did not get communication that resulted in reliable information.
Last September they promised TLD in a month or so. But then they changed it to multiple steps with unknown durations.
Other than occasional presentations from LL, we have no idea where the trial results are standing.
Last year many people betted on dates for TLD. The funny thing is even the harshest critiques, exwannabe and Jerry predicted a date that has passed by now and we still did not hear anything from the company.
We all hope there is a good reason behind this.
But time is worrying!!!!!
Thank you Kaizenman.
this is very convincing!
Scotty,
I think the company is working hard to get this medicine approved and become available to those who need it.
My question was about the timing of a journal publication. Since this is immunotherapy, and since the path to curing is different compared to conventional therapies, it is normal that they want a publication out. Getting something peer-reviewed makes the results more convincing. This is important for novel approaches.
All I was questioning is the timing of a journal article. If it can be fast-tracked, it is great.
I am curious if the paper is submitted.
I hope they did. I think there may be a reason why they are not even talking about it.
Last time, before they published the interim results (which was phenomenal), they advertised it, and unfortunately, although the blinded results were very good, the paper appeared very late and it did not have an impact on SP.
I think they are being very cautious this time.
Hopefully, we will hear something soon.
GLTA Longs!
Flipper,
thank you for the detailed and convincing answer.
Senti,
The publication process can take a very long time after submission.
To give a perspective, I publish about 6-9 papers a year.
Some of these are from my group, some of them are led by my collaborators.
After submission, a publication takes at least a couple of months (couple meaning 2-4 months or review). Then it takes about 1 month to respond to the referee reports and then hopefully approval.
In other words, approval takes about half a year after submission.
then after approval, some journals have a service for as-is the appearance on their website.
But some others, take about 3-5 months.
So the best one can hope is to see the paper on a journal website about 6 - 9 months after submission.
For more impactful papers it takes even more. I had a Science Magazine submission, it took more than a year to get fully rejected.
We got it published later on in a Nature-sister journal, (about 6-7 months after that).
For the case of NWBO, we are not sure even if they analyzed the data. It takes about 2-3 months to draft a paper.
There is no indication of any paper submission. So they will probably not announce the TLD anytime soon.
What is your take on this?
Some people are getting very cheap shares.
I will probably add more at these levels.
Doc,
thanks for the point!
Makes sense.
Doc,
another strategy could be releasing topline data. They do not need to immediately seek approval. then they can apply when manufacturing is ready.
this would be less painful.
if they have positive data, would tld announcement hurt?
I do not think so.
Senti,
Most journals have a supplementary information document published along with the paper.
So even if a paper is 1500 words, it can have 20 pages supplement.
Thermo,
This is a great post.
thanks and I wish your brother and others who got GBM and similar disease a healthy recovery and long life with their loved ones
Dr Bala,
Do you think that they will have all the 60 doctors as authors in this publication?
If yes, since Dr Ashkan did not see the results yet, that means the paper is not submitted yet.
But it is also possible that only the doctors in the loop will be authors for this paper. The others may get an acknowledgment at the end.
It would be very hard to keep the information from the public if 60 coauthor doctors sees the results before submission.
Biosect, but UK is a major site that this trial took place. Years ago Les told me that most likely they will get approval from some other place than the US at first then FDA will come. (My conversation with Les took place a couple of months before the interim blinded results paper). I am not recalling if he told me whether or not the UK is the first place for application. But that is what I always thought for some reason. If you look at the investments UK is a major center that NWBO is building facilities. So it does not make sense that the top surgeon in the UK is not in the loop.
It is hard to believe.
and also he is not saying he is not in the loop. He is saying that the relevant places are just reopening and things will move faster.
I think he is saying what he is meaning.
I am not sure what is the process of data lock and how the information is transferred. But it is possible that they may have certain data taken and analyzed, but they may also need some auxiliary data from the sites, which they know is locked stored. for instance images of scans, blood tests, whatever you can think of needs to be considered for each patient measured at very different times.
Does the data lock mean all the data transferred?
I am not sure how it works. but it is possible that when you write a paper, you may need many different data.
I also think that things will go faster now. but Covid definitely had the worse impact on a trial that ran on 80 sites on different continents.
GLTA
Management did not do a bad job for this ASM.
They actually said a week before the meeting not to expect much.
Then investors built their own expectations.
There are a couple of reasons for that
1- They had the ASM on a weekday
2- LL has a scheduled talk in a close time.
One thing we need to understand is LL is a prominent scientist, she will have a lot of talks. They are not necessarily about the topline data. One of these talks can be about TLD when TLD gets ready.
LP even did better service for the investors today. She said, do not wait for the TLD in ASCO.
She has been saying that there will be a paper publication.
So the management is so far trustworthy.
I had a lot of complaints in the past because they built false expectations. They gave shorter-sounding timelines for the process (multimonth etc...).
But after October 5 2020 they have been consistent.
Now the question is this:
What is the status? Which stage are they in?
The peer-review process can take multi months to a year for certain papers. We do not know if they actually had the paper submitted.
I think this time they are not even mentioning that the paper is submitted or not too. Because for the interim results when they submitted the paper, it was announced publically but it took many months to get it out. At that time all of us were waiting for a high-impact journal to jump on to the results. But it did not happen. The paper got published in a mediocre journal. I even talked to Les that time. He told me that paper would make a big difference.
But it did not.
So I think this time the management is much more careful. they are doing everything to go low.
One thing that I am comfortable in that what LP said today.
They will make sure this P3 study will be completed and we will get the TLD data.
When? who knows. Do the monthly extended warrants give a hint?
Not to me. I think they are just keeping them extended monthly because they also are not sure when they will announce the results.
the SP can go down to its earlier levels this month. But one thing that this short rise showed me is that when the actual results hits, the SP will multiply a lot!!!! Because even when they told that do not expect the results, a small expectation from the investors risen the SP from $1.5 to $2 with a small volume.
When the results hit and we get 50 million volume, I can't imagine where will this go.
ALL IMO, and good luck to all....
Thanks, Bio.
A deal makes sense.
and if it was a deal, this could happen anytime still.
There is a lot of reasons to be patient at this point.
Although it is hard.
I am so far happy about the investment, since 2011-12, I have been accumulating and we passed through a lot of challenges. It was painful but gave a lot of opportunities to accumulate shares.
Any guesses on what stage that they could be in for the Journal process?
GLTA.
October 5 PR is understandable. What is problematic is, why they did invite every shareholder to the previous ASM. If it was not the pandemic, they wanted the crowds, to appear in the ASM.
It does not look like this delay can be totally given to the pandemic. From September DL to May 2021 they had much more time to analyze and understand the data, compared to what they predicted for the previous ASM.
Last year, when they announced the ASM date, they did not have DL but thought that they will celebrate in 2020 ASM.
I think the company needs to clarify this change and the discrepancy in the timelines that they provided. After October PR their answer to anything is we are in a quiet period and we are on track with October 5th PR. But then why did they give misleading information in the previous year.
My guess is this: They realized that they need to publish the results. Publication requires to be silent about the results. Even after acceptance of the paper, journals require to be silent until they release the paper.
I am not sure how it is in the medical field, but nowadays Journals enable the online appearance of the article after acceptance. Nature also allows and also provides a platform for an under-review version of the article to be published on a website. I guess, in their case, they can't have the results publically available before completing the peer review. Therefore these options are not available to them. Then they have to wait for the Journal to release the peer-reviewed and accepted article. This process takes its own time period.
Regardless, I think they should explain why they invited people to the previous ASM to celebrate, and why their plans have changed. Because many people did make investment decisions based on that invitation. They also should tell the reason for the quiet period. Is it journal-related, or is it something else?
GLTA.
me too.
Bought more at 1.14
Things are getting exciting :)
thank you Kam8
I would not think that I would laugh at my lost :)
that is so funny.
GLTA
Hi Spartex,
It is a simple analysis thing that just looks at the number of shares traded and compares it with the average volume.
The average volume of NWBO is like 5 6 millions of shares.
today we will probably is over 40 million.
NEXT Week will be a big test for DDamanda method.
If that method is correct we should probably see $20.
Sojo,
great to hear from you and get well soon.
What will these two weeks look like?
Are we going to get TLD?
Are we going to get more warrant exercised and SP crash?
I hope LP's plans are good for the long investors.
GLTA
Hi Flipper,
Is NWBO part of that study. If it is not is it still good for us?
thanks
how does LearningCurve time the negative posts with the hour that MMs excercising warrants?
what was the share count yesterday?
Without making any assumption related to the success of the TLD, it should be 4-6 USD before TLD.
But there is a significant amount of data that can push the price much higher even before TLD.
1- confidence of management
a- purchase of flaskworks, construction of Sawston facility...
b- BOD and executives own a lot of shares and they do not sell
2- The primary endpoints,
3- new FDA guidelines
4- They will apply to 4 different jurisdictions.
5- blinded results are very promising.
......
When all of these factored in, I hope prior to TLD it can reach about $10.
I do not prefer a buyout. But I will be happy to see partnerships.
I prefer NWBO treats GBM (maybe with relatively small partnerships).
But they should establish collaboration with BP for other cancer types.
This could send the SP the sky IMO. $100
IMO, post TLD buyout price will be similar or somewhat higher compared to what Gilead paid.
Agreed. The SP is increasing not only for the expectation of good results. But the price was beaten down badly for many years.
The price is correcting it to a normal level.
1- This is the only P3 study that is completed for GBM in recent years.
2- The blinded data looks very good.
3- The PI received several awards for developing this treatment.
4- It is a platform for treating many other cancers.
5- Immunotherapy is emerging rapidly.
6- There is a substantial market.
Despite all these positives, the MC was about $100 million.
It was undervalued.
The question is what is the fair value prior to TLD.
IMO it still did not reach its fair value.
Therefore I am still buying.
I was also thinking about these warrants. I think these warrants are priced in.
They will just bring extra income to the company and I hope those shares will be held long term.
this has great potential.
GLTA
congrats!!!
Alexander77,
Thank you for this information.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-lisa-fight-deadly-brain-cancer
I am glad that this board also helps to spread this type of fundraising activity for GBM patients.
I hope they can raise the amount quickly and she gets cured.
I think the risk related to the outcome of the study is reduced due to the application to multiple jurisdictions.
There is a good chance that all will approve the drug with good TLD, but also the company will still be successful if they don't get approvals from all agencies at the same time.
congrats to you!!!
Technically this is a more than $1 billion company now.
will this close beyond $1.50?
I hope so
Marzan,
I am also excited about the article.
But the Gramercy that you are referring to and the Gramercy that Joan Lappin are probably two different companies.
she is from Sarosota, FL. please see below.
https://smartadvisormatch.com/advisor-firm-network/florida/gramercy-capital-management-120324
Regardless the article is great, but I think it is not from a company that manages billions of dollars.