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Probably true…doesn’t change the fact buying a company with cash or shares has the same impact on the buyer
Whether you dilute or pay cash, very similar on the balance sheet. It’s the amount of value you give up, 6 pieces or half a dozen
Well a 56% premium is actually equivalent to $6.5 for us. That’s more comparable than the actual cash amount, since we’re different companies.
At a certain point, a stock is only worth what people are willing to pay for it
That’s what happens when short sellers get caught. But of course no one is complaining about that haha
So 60% unvaccinated, how many single vaccinated? It’s good to hear 60% number wasn’t referring to double vaxxed
Amarin and what army? I don’t think it’s fair to say amarin has the same platform or popularity to mimic pfizers strategy for the covid vaccine. They already have massive fda and cdc backing to stop the spread of Covid. I don’t think these are comparable circumstances (nor do I think it’s feasible to expect a company like amarin to be able to do anything on the same level as a pfizer)
Why will we be in the $3 range next week?
I think this isn’t bad news for the drug, just a messed up process (that’s easily fixable, as you said). If anything, confidence in the drug should be as strong or stronger.
It may get pounded for a few days, but I think the stock recovers into the next FDA process
Thoughts on CRL today?
Depends on the size and vanilla-ness of the portfolio. But they’re competitive tbh, no huge hundred million dollar winners recently…but banks are definitely taking less risk in trading these days, as markets have tightened and 2008 and 2020 really scared a lot of people. I’d say 80c on the dollar is what they trade for tbh, but very little discounts/free money on a large scale anymore. Sad times….
I guess for example last March I bid on a bunch of portfolios. First equity holders of the firms lose all their money invested (usually covers it all), then the prime brokers (banks) start getting hurt. I’ve never seen it get to the clearers per se. I don’t think the CBOE/CME took losses last year for example, so they’re pretty well insulated. I think biggest fear for that kind of stuff is surprise fed rate hikes. A lot more money/leverage there than in equities.
Yeah…I’ve never understood how self clearing is allowed. I think some MM self clear on a small level, but mostly use banks. That being said, I don’t think many banks/the govt understand many risks too well.
If firm goes belly up you asked…the firm of the shares traded you mean? Don’t quite get what you’re asking. If I short sell a share and E*TRADE clears me, they own the short if I get margin called. If E*TRADE went under, a bank or citadel would put a bid on their entire risk/portfolio. I think worst case the govt would most likely cover. When Lehman went under, their liabilities were sold to a few banks and a few Chicago firms (drw bought the Eurodollar book and made 700m on it in 1 year)
Theta depends on the implied volatility…but short a share doesn’t involve theta. Only options have theta and there is no % cost to be short an option, just margin required. Generally a high cost to borrow is an impediment for anyone to short.
If an MM goes insolvent the bank that clears them has to cover it. Eg archegos in March. But for example, BoA clears Susquehanna and citadel. Worst case scenario, those two MMs could probably take down BoA or at least get close. The security levels would be clearer (bank), exchanges/government. Not a concern IMO.
Naw. There’s no such thing as a long synthetic share really. Once you buy you’re just a long and you will be able to sell and get your money…assuming it wasn’t an otc/non exchange trade. If longs were not actually long the US market would collapse. If you buy a share from a long seller or a short seller, makes no difference to you. The grey area is in the short selling, and usually the gap between when a bank or MM short sells and has to locate (they are given cushion often). Generally what squeezes the large firms is simply the cost to borrow goes up like crazy if the stock moves a lot. Obviously GME and amc will not stay at these levels forever, but if you have to pay 15-20% per year to short them, that’s a losing battle.
What were the actual sales? His number forecast was above actual, why do you think it was too low?
What would that be? This was a long shot to get in the SC, I feel like that was well known?
We haven’t had good news really that’s reflected in the stock price in over 1000 days. Why do I feel there’s nothing but disappointment coming. I really hope that’s not the case! I guess worst case we just slip back to $4.3 or so...
There’s a daily rebalance, other etfs as well. In general, the quarterly option expiry has the largest broad market rebalance. End of quarters second largest
So this is a bit of a complicated process and often rebalances are either over exaggerated or even go the other way.
Most rebalances are done around 350est. ETF traders will always put on a position ahead of a rebalance, since it’s a fairly profitable strategy. However, sometimes they trade too aggressively into positions, and are then forced to rush out with everyone else. So a rebalance can sometimes buy a stock, but so many are long against the rebalance, the stock will go down a decent amount around the time of rebalance. So many shops “front run” rebalances, since most etfs and funds now have to publish their rebalance strategies and hedges.
Long story short, yes it’s usually 100% priced in and it’s hard to profit off of it. But that’s more because ETF traders at prop shops and banks often have 5-10x the size of the actual rebalance position on.
For this case in amarin, either the rebalance was a sell and market makers over sold, rebalance was a buy and stock rallied, or the inverse that fits for either. It’s getting to be a silly game tbh. But firms like Jane street and such make billions in etf composition and rebalances every year
But is it alive?
Tend to agree with this. And this board has been overly confident on the legal expertise so far, with horrible results. If it were just science, we’d all be rich
Rehiring E&Y like normal probably doesn’t indicate a BO...he’s seen a firm switch to them and get bought out. I’m sure there are equally bad or worse situations where people change because there is fraud.
Usually these things HFs pick up quickly. We’ll be the last to know about a BO
Doesn’t that always seem to be the case?!? Haha sorry to hear that.
Maybe the HFs using them didn’t buy in as much!
The real issue with the quant trading and traditional hedge fund industry alike is this- all strategies and “edge” are fairly similar, so people end up with similar positions. When things go bad, that’s why the market over reacts now more than ever. It is too overlevered, and there is pain from it often
No, something the public has access to is not. There’s actually a company called Yipit that sells info (inventory as Frys or Best Buy) to hedge funds.
But any info obtained, purposefully or by chance, that is not public and I could not find out by going somewhere or searching the web (throughly) is non public and illegal to trade against.
Even the fry’s example is risky for the investor. What if the shelves look empty but there is more in inventory. That would be non public info that the fry’s employee could actually not trade against.
It also has to do with weight of info. If you are friends with an Apple employee and they simply have been happy and smiling a lot, you could trade against that. Even if they began spending more, you could. However, if you asked how the quarter was and they said “great,” that is grey area and most likely illegal.
The only place where non public info is legal to trade against is the Chicago mercantile exchange for most futures products (oil, cattle, gold, etc). But that’s mostly because those products are made for producers to hedge, and they inherently have inside info. BP makes money “oil trading” because they have inside information galore. But it should be legal, since they are just hedging production and costs
Everything you’re saying is insider trading, just hard to prove. I’m fairly familiar with the algos to track that stuff, and they’re fairly decent. The hard part of figuring out insider trading is with someone who makes 100s of trades a year and few are insider and they’re not outsized to normal trades. Steve Cohen is a great example of someone they had trouble pinning for insider info because if 5% of your trades are on non public info, it’s hard to catch. Those trades just happen to be 80%+ of the pnl!
In trading, I’ve been exposed to a ton of insider info. Most firms I know really don’t want to do it and ask to report it and step away from the security until the info is public (make no money). However, it still happens all the time, probably more often in individual accounts than anywhere. Europe (London especially) is really bad about it in big firms though
It is. They’re given options/warrants, so if stock doesn’t appreciate they don’t make money. Probably a lot of JTs options were granted at strike above 15/20. Could be one of the reasons he quit
If something trades in a dark pool, it is then just laid off in the regular market, and usually quickly. Especially with amc, no one is holding huge positions as market makers these days, and it seems like these dilutions aren’t even being participated in by long term holders either
I agree-definitely should be raising as much money now as possible. Have to imagine employees are scrambling to sell shares, many made RICH over the past 6 months haah
Ha I don’t think we’re in trouble if basf is in the suit. They’re much better equip with money and lawyers to kick butt
You’re probably looking at one exchange of data if I had to guess. There are over a dozen exchanges. If you have to choose which to watch, I would say look at BATS then Nasdaq
Short volume can be misleading if a stock has a huge amount of options traded. If a market maker buys a call or sells a put, they also sell shares against that trade. So if a stock is trading $50 and you own it and want to sell a covered call, a market maker will buy the call from you, then sell shares as a hedge to the call (call value goes up when the stock does, so selling shares is a hedge in price). Similar, but opposite with a put. I’m not saying that’s the case, but it could be.
HFT in general don’t trade much against HFT. They’re just on the price making side of the trade (non aggressor).
11.6 million shares can be bought by retail, but usually not at once. Retail isn’t quite organized enough to say show limit bids for $700m, while funds can. So if retail wants to buy but funds don’t, a huge share dilution will dip the company more. I don’t think any smart funds are buying and holding amc at $60 haha. That’s the reason financing is usually done in private, since there’s most likely often shady stuff, but at least the company knows the money will be there. Look how hard it is on our board to raise 10k for marjac! Amarin can approach Goldman (I know everyone hates them but...) and raise billions for funding quickly
A large HF will generally get out of their position before a margin call, risk management is pretty intense since HFs are struggling so much just to match S&P returns these days. That’s why Melvin was such a big story, they obviously had poor risk management and a huge ego.
For a large market maker, usually self imposed risk limits will kick in before an actual margin call. But the main thing that will squeeze them out is the borrow rate. Because they get such good margin/leverage, huge changes in correlation can lose them big money fast if they have thousands of positions on. Any huge market maker will have verrrry little margin requirements since their true objective should be to trade flat, only taking home a small % of residual positions vs their actual trading size. That’s why a lot of market making firms will embed large trading teams and hide the risk to look like it’s all bundled together. Better margin usually equals better returns...until you blow out haha
How do you calculate true range?
Easiest way to figure that out is divide the implied vol (IV) by 16. That will give you the best estimate of expected daily movement through the life of that option.
500m*50 is 25b. No way retail is buying and holding anywhere near that kind of size. I’d say 70% of the volume is pure HFT market makers/basket trading that is taking almost no risk (position taking), or what is basically churning. Another 15%+ (majority of retail) is buying and selling same day on these, so again, not really pushing the stock long term. In general, the borrow rate on these stocks will massively affect the liquidity. As borrow rate skyrockets, even the hfts and basket traders cannot make money on the short leg (if borrow rates weren’t getting jacked, neither GME or amc would have taken off like they did).
I agree it’s a gamma squeeze. But gamma squeezes only occur with poor liquidity (retail only buying is considered poor liquidity, has nothing to do with volume traded really). The stability of a stock/option price is really determined by market makers. The way they gauge how to set it is if something is liquid (easy for them to buy AND sell), or illiquid (meaning either very low volume, or very low retail volume one way). If retail is only buying, of course there is trading, but because market makers are not exposed to any retail sell orders (or a low percentage), it’s essentially low liquidity. The way I like to think about it is “if I sell, how likely is it the next order will sell to me.” If the answer is very unlikely, I’m going to move my pricing up quickly and lower my size on the offers.
In the end of the day, it’s a 0 sum game, and MMs make a lot of money in total. The real winners are the E*TRADE and Robinhoods, who are growing immensely from the huge spike in retail trading. I do think a lot of HFs are getting hurt on some of this stuff, fundamentally all these stocks are a great sell.
That’s not true. “Very liquid” and a 100% daily squeeze do not go hand in hand. The fact that these things move 20-100% a day shows they are not liquid.
If someone tried to do this to a real liquid stock, nothing would happen. They tried to do this to silver, it was elevated for a day before sinking back below previous levels.
Just because you can buy shares doesn’t mean it’s liquid. 15%-20% immediate drop in share price when a 3% dilution is announced shows lack of liquidity. Generally, companies go by the rule you can trade 3-5% of the float of a liquid stock without the price freaking out too much. If 3% drops it 20%+, that’s not a liquid company. The reason people who “are up 300%” don’t make that much money is liquidity. Let’s see what happens if retail tries to run up SPY or something haha
Dilution of 11.6m shares in amc. Retail can’t buy that much in a day, long term real value will win. Amc is being smart raising funds while the price is stupid high
Hey north good to see you here. Deciding whether or not this is the next big one. What are your thoughts? July 2nd is the date we’ll learn more I guess. I think the fact the fda voted in favor, I thought the stock would be higher. We’ve seen this before...
What?
Is aspirin not the answer, or is an increased dose of aspirin not the answer? Aspirin vs no apsirin I believe still shows benefits from usage.
50g of vascepa may not be better than 10g, doesn’t mean vascepa isn’t the answer!
Never a better time than now! If only we got a 100% premium when the stock was $24...