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4.8b Market Cap by doing quick math. But hard to say how far away this is.
DcVax is a trademarked name owned by NWBO. I’m no trademark lawyer but I don’t think they can use that term unless approved by NWBO. But it’s been known that UCLA makes their own in house which is what we know as DCVax as LL mentioned in the past.
The bears saying it’s not dcVax are correct but also are living in the grey area since it’s equal to DCVax but just how scientists call it day to day is different.
🙃
Thanks for posting this, I was not able to listen to the ASM for the first time since I started my investment here.
You can want to improve people’s lives while wanting to improve your own in a capital way. Nothing wrong with that. Why do doctors charge someone for surgery? Why can’t they do it for free for their goodness of their heart? These are useless questions.
If NWBO gets approval the price will drop on their drug, Automation is key for price drops. Yet King Collage made you angry so you become a bear here makes no logical decision to me since you were never put on this immunotherapy.
But I digress, back to a relaxing weekend.
In PA it sounds like, because my whole family is from the fracking areas and the Amish areas. But I’m down near Philly. Now I want a beer. Haha
I have two friends who work in the labs at that location. They are not messing with DCVax there, they mostly do Covid stuff still at that location.
I wasn’t going to reply but I just can’t even think where you see me as a flakey basher. Even my account on stocktwits is bullish. Just making me confused and worried about your reading comprehension more than anything else at this point. 🧐
Northwest Biotherapeutics Announces That A Marketing Authorization Application Has Been Submitted To The UK MHRA For DCVax®-L For Glioblastoma
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/northwest-biotherapeutics-announces-that-a-marketing-authorization-application-has-been-submitted-to-the-uk-mhra-for-dcvax-l-for-glioblastoma-302021038.html
They had a reverse split of 1:100, so it’s 8$ a share currently not .08. It was .14 a week ago. You have to wait for everything to update. Either way that company isn’t doing well, much much worse than here.
Remove post as stickie and how you judge people like that is not what a mod should do. I did report, but you will prob see it yourself since you are a mod.
Yeah this is correct, Buying at .15 and selling at .70 gets you an annualized ROI of 36.08% for 5 years. They make calculators online for these. But then again Not sure where this all started due to not reading back all the way - that takes effort.
I added more into my edit, we are basically 30% a year since a low of .15 if that is the case. Which still beats out the market at our current price levels. Just like everything in the market, you just need to buy in at the correct time. I am up not that 380% if it were a straight $0.15 -> $0.72, but I am over 200% up on most of my trades here. But everyone has had different entry points and their own exit points, I just hope those who had the opportunity to buy in the <$0.20 did because they would be perfectly fine currently since their purchase is pretty solid still.
Correct me if I am wrong here,
Year 1 start - $0.15
Gains 60% though the year -
Year 2 start - $0.24
Gains 60% though the year -
Year 3 start - $0.384
Gains 60% though the year -
Year 4 start - $0.6144
Gains 60% though the year -
Year 5 start - $0.98304
So I don not understand how you are getting $1.57 with 60% increase a year.
Edit: I see now, Year 0 should be the start not year 1. So let me do this, 60% is not correct due to it not reaching what we are now, but 30% sure is extremely close, Starting at $0.15 but at the start of year 6 would be $0.72
Not sure about you but I will gladly take a 30% increase a year
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/marketing-authorisation-application-submission-dates-for-150-days-national-and-european-commission-decision-reliance-procedures
So if application was submitted by august 28th, they would be with the meeting at the end of November.
https://www.legalnature.com/guides/corporate-meetings-what-you-need-to-know
OTC is just a stock exchange, it doesn't regulate the RULES of running a company. Why do I need to explain this??? OTC doesn't require it because they allow LLC's which have no requirement. But OTC rules does not overturn federal rules. Why am I explaining this again??>??? Go and do your research and show me where it says NWBO does not need to do it, per laws not OTC requirements.
Uh, where have you read that a company does not require a shareholder meeting annually? Unless its a LLC which NWBO is not one.
List out the past 7 years of ASM and you would see in 2015-2016 they were in december, and only 2017's was late and held in January. From there its been more in the midyear ASM but we have till the end of the year to hold any meeting.
Sajid Javid didnt say all of that,
the second line is from Karen Nobel from Brain Cancer Research.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/patients-to-have-earlier-access-to-cutting-edge-treatments-on-nhs
This is from the NHS to find any of the quotes.
"now that abstracts are out with nothing from NWBO."
Bro, you from the future? Abstracts get released at 10AM EST
Abstract Titles Released: April 27, 2022, at 10:00 AM ET
Source: https://www.asco.org/about-asco/press-center/media-resources-meetings/annual-meeting-media-resource-center
So no one knows yet.
Fixed it currently on my spreadsheet so it stops doing notation for the shares out. I should label the axis's but its just data collecting for me. Not sure what else to collect. But just was interested in seeing charts for Price, Market cap, and shares out. Nothing else interests me.
I should mark on there the 10k's and 8k's that are of importance. Maybe eventually lol
Yeah, the values are all correct. I didnt take all the prices and they are end of day prices not highs. so no super large spikes and drops. makes it more consistent to me.
That is around 320,000 shares a day for the past year. One day that will stop I hope and NWBO wont dilute anymore. Really the price holds up well since so many shares have been pushed out.
Ha, I have a friend a TA2, Michele Abbate out of Vegas.
All I have is a track prepped BRZ, nothing 100% race car... yet. One day I tell myself I will.
The report was done in August but might of only been posted now, first I am seeing this with all the comments about the findings and how it is accepted now. Feel like they just updated the page today with the report and since nothing is major no true follow up in person is needed.
I just had ISO14000 auditors come though my work Tuesday, oh joy how that was fun to be pulled into 3 hours of overtime when I was about to leave. haha
But did you see this PDF get posted in august or September? I didn't
Last quarter 10Q wasn't done till Jan 2021.... Year before that was November 12th, so we got a bit still before the 10Q. November 11th 2020 was a NT 10Q saying it would be late. So around then we should know if they will be late or file on time.
This will mostly benefit -Direct if I recall correctly. Also help secure the process of how they can be grown. So if anyone else wants to do something similar it hinders them and potentially will get a kickback if someone wants to enter the space using similar tech. Only time will truly tell but they did cut a ton out of this patent from what it originally wanted.
https://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?PageNum=0&docid=11124768&IDKey=5A9CB988E47A%0D%0A&HomeUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fpatft1.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO1%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526d%3DPALL%2526p%3D1%2526u%3D%25252Fnetahtml%25252FPTO%25252Fsrchnum.htm%2526r%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526s1%3D11124768.PN.%2526OS%3DPN%2F11124768%2526RS%3DPN%2F11124768
Not sure if this link will work, but Date of Patent: Sep. 21, 2021
Woo
We have 0 way to say that NWBO will get x10 production on the flaskwork units. Yes it will improve production, and they said up to 10x in the past. But they also said last September we would have TLD. I will go by my x3 estimate for production, as I said before its on the low end and I said maybe 3x on the first post and said low end on another one after. We have 0 data as I also said before, and have no idea how much tumor is actually needed to use this system. And I said your estimate gets you to like 100$, that's based off of world usage with a multiple. But that was back of the hand calculations so I didn't get exact with it, may be closer to like 70$/share. My estimate for share price never got near 100$, and I find my estimates reasonable for -L.
As I said many times, I am NOT going to use best case for production, 3x on the low end is fully reasonable. And as I said, ducking out because you do not understand what I am saying with this it seems like, and saying that my 3x is too low basically. When I did say its on the low end before, and without hard data all we can do is assume. I NEED data that shows the true production, otherwise its all guesses and I rather assume low then high, mainly when it comes to manufacturing, mainly when its with a company like NWBO which doesn't have resources like the company I work for does.
But leaving work now to go play golf, so jumping off of here. Hopefully this post clears things up more, yes I over estimated your price per share since I did it in my head and quickly, but I still hold to the low end for flaskwork due to 0 data helping the case minus what a PR says, and we all know how well their PR's actually are. Golf time woo, getting ready for Baywood in October, beautiful course.
Edit: Also sorry if my posts seem all over the place, been a busy morning at work so my thoughts all all over the place, setting up experiments now for running tomorrow, and there's too much to do while being understaffed.
No, im ducking out because you wont listen.
You're assuming 40800 DCvax made a year just at UK. That is 51$/share at a x10 enterprise value. Average S&P500 EV is 14.2x. As I've been doing the whole time, company value. If a single place can make this company 51$/share, I find it crazy. And the sales from experimental treatment that NWBO is allowed to do right now is nothing since those people have to pay out of pocket and can not be relied on. 12-15$/ share EV based on UK and US (excluding Asian countries) and Treating 40% of GBM seems quite reasonable compared to what NVCR, and Keytruda treats for GBM. But this still doesnt account for the true profit margins of the treatment. And that may drop overtime once it recoups some of its taxes due to losses thought the years.
Too much data unknown, my best estimate with todays numbers. But this is my last time replying to you about this, In no way do I see NWBO treating that many people under UK in the next 5-10 years. Direct is a long way out still.
Yes, I work in engineering for a s&p 500 company and deal with said engineers that estimate by using perfect world situations and always end up correcting them because efficiently is not 100%, they expect no downtime and the downtime they present never matches reality. And I gave an estimate of what I THINK what the value of dcvax would be to the financial world based only off of Europe’s potential. And the data as you say is not even there for you to judge off of so in the end any price is reasonable for how you calculate it. There is so much unaccounted for to show a true value of what revenues would be, and only NWBO knows what it truly is with their profit margins. My value is based off of what I see what the market penetration would be with my research into the company for the past 6 years, and what I expect the vaccine in question to do based off of other companies I invested in over the years that had all these wild examples for prices that never panned out due to how much the market they actually got into for what they were approved for. Saying we would be used on all GBM cases would be madness since more than you think can’t get enough tumor tissue to make the vaccine. But you are also still up in arms about my value, which I made spreadsheets that give a deeper understanding to the prices I give, but I also only give it x10 multiple but with today’s market, some are 200x multiple which is not sustainable, 10-15x is more reasonable, heck 5x the gross possibility of the company I’d be okay with. But done with this convo because we arnt getting anywhere, and you don’t fully understand everything that I would use to justify my value of the company based JUST on -L , not even factoring the -Direct. So 12-15 just on -L alone is fully reasonable. But have a good day.
Don’t know why you seem up in arms about my calculations which are reasonable, thinking we would take over 100% of the GBM market when you need to have enough tumor extracted to even make Dcvax. GBM is a wide space and definition, we don’t fully know what classes of GBM would benefit from DCVax. NVCR doesn’t have full market penetration yet are approved for GBM. I’m not going to estimate based off 100%, otherwise your hopes would always keep you wanting more. Until data actually comes out to see, can only estimate, and low estimates are safer than perfect world estimates, because we would be at 100$/share then.
I rather under estimate than over. Been doing manufacturing upgrades for 15 years and my experience shows what the higher ups say vs what is possible never works out. A solid low estimate helps with a solid base where you can fine tune from there. On top of it not going to be an instant upgrade it would be a slow roll out to expand to that level of a fully staffed and fully equipped location. And even at 3x the fully possible location that I said fully covers the GBM space which is the only thing they are approved for (possibly if they ever release the dang data)
I agree with before flaskwork number of ~4080, but with flaskworks I only see maybe 3x the utilization for the square footage there, so ~12k per year. 12k @ 150k per treatment would be 1.8b a year. Lets say a 10x sales multiple, so 18b valuation. Comes out to be 15$ a share just from this single location getting full capacity.
But there are unknowns that could effect this, 12k treatments a year would be 100% of the GBM cases from Europe, so we can imagine that we only pernitrate maybe 40% of the total, so comes out to 7.2b$ / 6$/share from this one location. Hard part is judging how much profit in total that will be, and what the agreements would be between the company actually making it vs NWBO. and if CRL/Cognate opens up and makes it at the same rate, could be anywhere from 12$ to 30$/share for just the GBM cases. Direct is going to be the true game changer if it gets past all of its hurdles. GBM just gets us to that if all passes and profit is finally made with NWBO.
But I digress, back to not posting and just reading. lol
If it gets to 10, ill be selling 800 shares to pay off a personal loan I got, rest is going to ride till 20+ and even then I may sell only like 10000 shares and let the rest ride. Taxes will always be a bugger once I get to that much, its a pain ill gladly accept any day. Oh no taxes on making so much money. haha, better yet then money is the possibility of DCVax actually helping someone live longer
"Company was advised by the Nasdaq Staff "
Doesn't mean the company was going to do a reverse split, its just what Nasdaq staff mentioned.
Or IBM's close second at the time RCA, they went downhill fast due to bad management practices and got away from the solid R&D they used to do, and always ended up being late to the newest tech.
I dont eat seafood, but Ill just take a filet. And NJ isnt that far for me so Ill see ya there! lol, if this hits 10, Ill just derisk a tiny tiny bit, like 5% of my holdings of NWBO and thats it lol
And I have the magic ability to have TLD released the second after I would need to sell some shares for personal issues. So everyone is waiting for me to sell.
At least that has been my luck with most companies haha
Because its an application, which they just paid the final fee for to have them create a patent for. So has to be converted now which is not in NWBO's hands, thats the patent office's job. Just give it some time.