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I doubt Nvidia would invest in those companies. India is a relative new comer in the semiconductor industry. They want to become a China but will take quite awhile to gain the expertise. India currently does well in foundries and metal parts. They will need to have more physicists and chemicals engineers. India is a huge market and their population is still growing vs China. Maybe there's another way in which Nvidia can support Modi/India without an actual investment in companies.
Looks like Jensen is increasing his volume of selling shares. Previously he was selling at a rate of 120k/trading day and on the 19th and 20th his proposed sales jumped to 1M on both those days. Some of the news outlets/analysts are going to have fun with that when they discuss Nvidia.
Other companies have tried that in the past. Shortages don't last forever and more competition is coming on board. You've lost a good portion of your future business by demanding more money. Nvidia is already considered to be very expensive. The best thing is to strive for a manageable backlog and not hold customers at ransom. Eventually Nvidia will have to have lower cost solutions or product so good customers will continue to pay the premium.
What I have read the numbers are monthly. It wouldn't make sense for and annual volume. They would never come close to satisfying demand and lose a lot of business. I had read starting 40k/mo starting end of year and doubling in 2025
Am I seeing this right? I'm showing after hours volume of over 51M shares. That is an unusually very large volume for Nvidia. The potentially good thing is that it is green even though not much of an increase.
In Zacks article today they came out with a hold on Nvdia. Zacks typically gives more of a short term perspective on stocks. It goes along with my current feeling about the near term. I still feel barring any negative news that Nvidia will perform much better in the first two quarters of 2025. Until then, I'm not expecting much and hoping it won't go below 100. I still think even in the first two quarters the stock won't go much above 135-140. For it to get higher, something great has to happen in the last quarter of this year.
Doesn't look good for today. Looks like it's gonna lose a lot of yesterday's gain. I still don't feel this stock will get above 120 for some time. Maybe in May or June of 2025. Market isn't going to be happy with just beating estimates. They still expect huge estimate beats which isn't realistic. Most likely will exceed estimates but not enough to drive the stock past 120. So I'll just hang tight until then.
I was a little disappointed the volume wasn't higher. It seems like people/funds/institutions are holding back.
That is a more realistic assessment. But I don't see this stock hitting above 140-145. One of the major problems with today's stock market is as follows:
Years ago we had a number of neutral days with little movement. Today it is totally unacceptable. So traders will take any excuse to drive the market down and point to something else to bring it back up. There can't be a neutral market because it generates no capital. The market is totally manipulated. The tech sector has always and will always be the most volatile. That being said, don't get greedy because it ain't gonna last. Unfortunately Nvidia is at this time the poster child because it has the most impact on the tech market. That may change in 6 or so months and traders will move on to another grouping.
I guess we'll see and see soon.
Then maybe you would like to explain the stock performance even now knowing Blackwell volumes will start in Q4 and why Nvidia is the worse performing of the mag 7 percentage wise. I can only assume you don't believe the market has already factored in Blackwell, which BTW would be very naive. But I guess you've been accurate on you assumptions- right? I think we currently all know the volumes in Q4 will be 40k/ month doubling in 2025 for Blackwell and they currently have over 1M backlog. The question becomes why can't the stock hold above $120 knowing this information. It's all out there. Their production is limited by the ability of TSM to deliver and therefore their revs since their chips are used in CUDA.
Doesn't look line Blackwell will be taking this stock much higher than $120. One could now assume Blackwell has already been priced into the price of the stock. To think a stock like Utla Beauty can go up $70/share by just one person (BTW who has never bought a share of Nvidia for his Berkshire account) to start buying Ulta even though they missed predictions and really didn't paint a rosey picture. Looks like this stock isn't going to be the one to watch in the near term. In August is had 60 analysts and now has approximately 40% fewer analysts along with the fact the fund/institutions have cut their holdings in the stock. I now believe the two major reasons for the stock not reaching the analysts will be the shares outstanding along with more and more competition coming on line to chip away at their dominant market place. When the competition starts improving on their products, we'll be discussing pricing in the $40-$50 range.
Nvidia is going to be the leader for some time but not sure when the market will change the direction. Stock has to hold above 120 and then the next hurdle will be above 130. I personally think it's going to take one heck of a blow out quarter to get this above 140 but doubtful this year. I'm still thinking 2 quarter of next year.
Another company has been doing something like that by giving them free help with their R&D. The company went from $16 down to under $1 and received a warning of delisting and then a RS. It's a game. But there are other factors with Nvidia causing the stock to fall. It's all about perception. Things which have caused funds/institutions to sell off some holdings.
Competition whether it is comparable or not is a concern about Nvidia's future revenue gains
Jensen selling shares even though it is common for a CEO to do such transactions.
The idea of AI not justifying the amount of money it costs even though it will but just not happening fast enough.
The $50B authorized stock buyback will hardly make a dent in the shares outstanding which indicates way too many outstanding shares.
Most important to perception would be a major company or person investing heavily a significant amount of money in the company. The reverse has happened over the last 2-3 months. Example Warren Buffet bought a significant amount of shares in Ulta Beauty even though the last Q report they missed on estimates. In two weeks the stock went up approximately $60 just because Buffet bought their stock.
So it's going to be some time before the stock can hold above $130.
I've read $30-40K and as high as 60K. There are 3 different Blackwell designs. B100, B200, GB200. It's hard to differentiate what some of the pricing is for but I think a lot has to do with the size of customers orders. I was surprised to see was using such a high number for his supposed super computer. From what I've seen in the way of customer demands we're talking about 1.2M-around 1.6M. Nvidia is talking about 40k/month at end of 2024 and doubling that in 2025 time frame. Looks like they'll have a strong backlog for when the Rubin comes out in as early as 2026. What's nice about the whole architecture is it's both backward and forward compatible.
The sales to just 4 companies if more than 1M. The biggest number will come from Cuda utilizing the blackwell chips.
Thanks
Could you supply the link? I didn't see it under Nvidia. I saw it on Reuters but it wasn't complete.
A true quantum cloud would use Qbits and not transistor based technology for the actual computing. However, I would assume they do need Nvidia systems to handle the information gathered.
I think you should have put volume production delivery. If so, 2nd week of December 2024.
Don't know if you've read about this but it gives you a good idea as to the future of Nvidia's business if it holds up.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/whodunnit-sk-hynix-rejected-374-173500876.html
The essence is the amount of business Nvidia has negotiated from a major chip manufacturer in S. Korea:
SK Hynix has committed to supplying over 1 trillion won ($749 billion) worth of HBM products to Nvidia, the leader in AI chip development.
Oracle will be using 131k B200 chips in their Zettascale cluster. If I based the cost for the B200 at $40,000, that's $5.2B for just one of Oracle's products. In the article it also stated Oracle advised they would be receiving Blackwell parts in the first half of 2025.
Maybe you should learn how to read and understand the context of a post. My comment was made in relation to when the buyback would start up again. I was implying it wouldn't look good for Jensen to start a buyback just to buy up his own stock (which amounts to approximately $300M/Mo for the last 2 months) is being sold into the market. BTW, the $50B also includes the previous unfulfilled portion of the previously announced buyback. Reading is fundamental but understanding context is just as fundamental.
The buy back won't start happening until Jensen/management are done selling shares. The previous buyback stopped at $15.5B. Insiders were selling a little while after that. So, Most likely, the buy back will start to happen in Q4 of this year or early next year.
Morgan Stanley unloaded a large number of shares over the last couple of weeks.
After listening to the Goldman Sachs/Nvidia tech from Jensen, I came to the following conclusions:
It was an excellent presentation from Jensen and worth listening to. I actually listened to the very end.
I learned a little more about his/companies philosophy and their direction
Anyone who states the technology hasn't/isn't paying for itself doesn't have any understanding as to what it does and accomplishes. Much of the benefits can't be measured in current point in time but benefits will escalate over time.
Forward and backward compatibility over technology base along with power and space savings while increasing capability.
I would have liked to hear more details about scaling up the Blackwell chips. I am convinced production volume will ramp in Q4 but still unsure of the volume. 40k/month by years end but would have liked to have heard some time of confirmation. The Blackwell is quite a leap in performance and technology.
I'm sure the reason for the surge in NVDA is due to the broadcast of the event.
$2-$3M is still a lot. Due to the size of the chip, I would imagine they would have around a 50% from a wafer. That's still a lot of money. Some companies like Super Micro may like such a device. Yes, companies like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft my like it for their cloud computing. It will have to go through a lot of testing/validation along with support software to go along with it.
I'm hoping Jensen will update on the volume shipments starting in Q4. I had read they were looking at 40k/month on the Blackwell by end of year. TSM is supposed to be doubling that in 2025. I currently believe they have over 1M backlog for the Blackwell (most likely combined B100, B200, and GB200). On a 12" wafer and due to the size of the B200, The yield at 100% utilization is around 63. But I'm going to assume (which is reality) they're getting around 60% which would be good for the complexity. The size of the B200 is 1600 Sq. mm. It takes a lot of wafers to yield the 40k/month. I think what might be holding the stock down is there is still doubt in whether Nvidia can come close to meeting a decent portion of the monthly requirements. As stated, their backlog runs through 2025. I'm not sure if my numbers are accurate since I don't really know the yields but knowing the size of the B200 and the usable area on a 12" wafer, one can calculate the number.
At a significantly higher price
I have to agree. The Nikkei being down as much as they are now is not a good indication of what is going to transpire Monday. It seems like any temporary or slightly negative news or even potential news is enough to drive the market down. It's another good example of how traders have fantastic opportunities to capitalize on fear whether or not being a chicken little affect. The company will have strong 1st and 2nd quarters of 2025 providing they can deliver enough product to keep customers from going elsewhere.
According to Morningstar it looks like we had some more funds selling off some more Nvidia stock.
Of the Mag 7 it was again the worse performing stock and with some others in the grouping it came in 2nd. The frequency of worse performing is more frequent. I'm speaking percentage wise. The trend is still very negative. There are other factors driving this one down. It down past the 20, 50, 100 moving day average and soon could go past the 200 day average. I don't see any real correction through the rest of the year and expect the third quarter of this year to drive the stock lower. Any price above 120-130 within the next 3 months is wishful thinking. May after the first quarter of 2025 might get back to the 120 range.
Will close below 100 today and most likely be down between $7-$9, The big drop will happen in the last 30 minutes. $80 is coming and buyback won't start until after Jensen is done selling his stock. It wouldn't make sense or make people happy to see the company buying his stock while still selling. Look for the buyback to start in late Q1-mid Q2 of 2025 to coincide with volume sales of Blackwell and far better Q1 report. This could even drop to the 60-70 range because his next Q report isn't going to be near as good as the last. The last quarter should have better SP due to anticipation of volume shipments of Blackwell.
I previously stated this stock would definitely be in the 90's and most likely end up in the 80's before Blackwell volume numbers are reported. I've also stated the stock should have a strong rebound sometime in either Q1 or Q2 of next year. The problem with the rebound is how far down it has to start from. BOA's announcement of $165 target is not feasible (at least withing the next 8-12 months. BOA has also been known (when it was Merrill Lynch) to hand out buys with way over estimated targets and then get their good clients out. This practice has spread to other firms. I again will say the highest price over the next 8-12 months will most likely be in the 120's-130's. The reason for the drop in AI stocks is due to any number of factors but most likely is the fact or assumption that the benefit from the investment in AI hasn't or won't show benefits for the cost at this time is a valid comment. So Nividia will most likely have the reputation with the biggest or one of the biggest percentage drops in any given day of it's grouping.
First of all the VMware was an acquisition made in 2023. I think you should look at the revs from 2023 up to and including their Q2 report. In actuality. They have not done that well with the group since they acquired. the first quarter after Broadcom acquired saw a $600M loss in revenue. The supposedly great revenue increase with AI/VMware wasn't all that great. Next time do better on your search and dig a little deeper. You seem to be lacking in your investigative capabilities. But tomorrow will tell the story for Nvidia and their AI/VMware didn't help after hours for Broadcom. But tomorrow will show what the market thinks.on Broadcom.
I guess we'll find out the impact tomorrow. It all depends on how good their patent is.
Correct. But I was alluding because of Broadcom Nvidia will be down tomorrow. There is currently a strong move to discredit AI because of Chatbots and one or two other ridiculous reasons. AI is far more than Chatbots. It's used in analysis studies, R&D, forecasting, and I'm sure other applications. One can pick any scenario to show why something will fail. But one really should look more at what the technology offers in the long run and the fact it is a learning technology. It will continue to improve over the next 10 years and companies which should use it and don't will be left behind.
Which part. The aftermarket prices are posted by NASDAQ and Broadcom is involved with AI. Their Q wasn't good ergo the $10 drop in aftermarket. The affect on one company within a group can have an overall affect on the group unless you believe Broadcom isn't involved in AI. We shall see tomorrow as to "if" and how far Nvidia might drop.
Based on Broadcom's Q, I'm pretty sure it will have a negative affect on Nvidia opening bell tomorrow. Some of the aftermarket buys today were down as mucy as $5-6. Looks like a pretty strong attempt to drive the price down opening bell tomorrow.
Thanks. Try to present both sides. Every stock has its good and bad. Just need to find out what the causes are.