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That is a more realistic assessment. But I don't see this stock hitting above 140-145. One of the major problems with today's stock market is as follows:
Years ago we had a number of neutral days with little movement. Today it is totally unacceptable. So traders will take any excuse to drive the market down and point to something else to bring it back up. There can't be a neutral market because it generates no capital. The market is totally manipulated. The tech sector has always and will always be the most volatile. That being said, don't get greedy because it ain't gonna last. Unfortunately Nvidia is at this time the poster child because it has the most impact on the tech market. That may change in 6 or so months and traders will move on to another grouping.
I guess we'll see and see soon.
Then maybe you would like to explain the stock performance even now knowing Blackwell volumes will start in Q4 and why Nvidia is the worse performing of the mag 7 percentage wise. I can only assume you don't believe the market has already factored in Blackwell, which BTW would be very naive. But I guess you've been accurate on you assumptions- right? I think we currently all know the volumes in Q4 will be 40k/ month doubling in 2025 for Blackwell and they currently have over 1M backlog. The question becomes why can't the stock hold above $120 knowing this information. It's all out there. Their production is limited by the ability of TSM to deliver and therefore their revs since their chips are used in CUDA.
Doesn't look line Blackwell will be taking this stock much higher than $120. One could now assume Blackwell has already been priced into the price of the stock. To think a stock like Utla Beauty can go up $70/share by just one person (BTW who has never bought a share of Nvidia for his Berkshire account) to start buying Ulta even though they missed predictions and really didn't paint a rosey picture. Looks like this stock isn't going to be the one to watch in the near term. In August is had 60 analysts and now has approximately 40% fewer analysts along with the fact the fund/institutions have cut their holdings in the stock. I now believe the two major reasons for the stock not reaching the analysts will be the shares outstanding along with more and more competition coming on line to chip away at their dominant market place. When the competition starts improving on their products, we'll be discussing pricing in the $40-$50 range.
Nvidia is going to be the leader for some time but not sure when the market will change the direction. Stock has to hold above 120 and then the next hurdle will be above 130. I personally think it's going to take one heck of a blow out quarter to get this above 140 but doubtful this year. I'm still thinking 2 quarter of next year.
Another company has been doing something like that by giving them free help with their R&D. The company went from $16 down to under $1 and received a warning of delisting and then a RS. It's a game. But there are other factors with Nvidia causing the stock to fall. It's all about perception. Things which have caused funds/institutions to sell off some holdings.
Competition whether it is comparable or not is a concern about Nvidia's future revenue gains
Jensen selling shares even though it is common for a CEO to do such transactions.
The idea of AI not justifying the amount of money it costs even though it will but just not happening fast enough.
The $50B authorized stock buyback will hardly make a dent in the shares outstanding which indicates way too many outstanding shares.
Most important to perception would be a major company or person investing heavily a significant amount of money in the company. The reverse has happened over the last 2-3 months. Example Warren Buffet bought a significant amount of shares in Ulta Beauty even though the last Q report they missed on estimates. In two weeks the stock went up approximately $60 just because Buffet bought their stock.
So it's going to be some time before the stock can hold above $130.
I've read $30-40K and as high as 60K. There are 3 different Blackwell designs. B100, B200, GB200. It's hard to differentiate what some of the pricing is for but I think a lot has to do with the size of customers orders. I was surprised to see was using such a high number for his supposed super computer. From what I've seen in the way of customer demands we're talking about 1.2M-around 1.6M. Nvidia is talking about 40k/month at end of 2024 and doubling that in 2025 time frame. Looks like they'll have a strong backlog for when the Rubin comes out in as early as 2026. What's nice about the whole architecture is it's both backward and forward compatible.
The sales to just 4 companies if more than 1M. The biggest number will come from Cuda utilizing the blackwell chips.
Thanks
Could you supply the link? I didn't see it under Nvidia. I saw it on Reuters but it wasn't complete.
A true quantum cloud would use Qbits and not transistor based technology for the actual computing. However, I would assume they do need Nvidia systems to handle the information gathered.
I think you should have put volume production delivery. If so, 2nd week of December 2024.
Don't know if you've read about this but it gives you a good idea as to the future of Nvidia's business if it holds up.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/whodunnit-sk-hynix-rejected-374-173500876.html
The essence is the amount of business Nvidia has negotiated from a major chip manufacturer in S. Korea:
SK Hynix has committed to supplying over 1 trillion won ($749 billion) worth of HBM products to Nvidia, the leader in AI chip development.
Oracle will be using 131k B200 chips in their Zettascale cluster. If I based the cost for the B200 at $40,000, that's $5.2B for just one of Oracle's products. In the article it also stated Oracle advised they would be receiving Blackwell parts in the first half of 2025.
Maybe you should learn how to read and understand the context of a post. My comment was made in relation to when the buyback would start up again. I was implying it wouldn't look good for Jensen to start a buyback just to buy up his own stock (which amounts to approximately $300M/Mo for the last 2 months) is being sold into the market. BTW, the $50B also includes the previous unfulfilled portion of the previously announced buyback. Reading is fundamental but understanding context is just as fundamental.
The buy back won't start happening until Jensen/management are done selling shares. The previous buyback stopped at $15.5B. Insiders were selling a little while after that. So, Most likely, the buy back will start to happen in Q4 of this year or early next year.
Morgan Stanley unloaded a large number of shares over the last couple of weeks.
After listening to the Goldman Sachs/Nvidia tech from Jensen, I came to the following conclusions:
It was an excellent presentation from Jensen and worth listening to. I actually listened to the very end.
I learned a little more about his/companies philosophy and their direction
Anyone who states the technology hasn't/isn't paying for itself doesn't have any understanding as to what it does and accomplishes. Much of the benefits can't be measured in current point in time but benefits will escalate over time.
Forward and backward compatibility over technology base along with power and space savings while increasing capability.
I would have liked to hear more details about scaling up the Blackwell chips. I am convinced production volume will ramp in Q4 but still unsure of the volume. 40k/month by years end but would have liked to have heard some time of confirmation. The Blackwell is quite a leap in performance and technology.
I'm sure the reason for the surge in NVDA is due to the broadcast of the event.
$2-$3M is still a lot. Due to the size of the chip, I would imagine they would have around a 50% from a wafer. That's still a lot of money. Some companies like Super Micro may like such a device. Yes, companies like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft my like it for their cloud computing. It will have to go through a lot of testing/validation along with support software to go along with it.
I'm hoping Jensen will update on the volume shipments starting in Q4. I had read they were looking at 40k/month on the Blackwell by end of year. TSM is supposed to be doubling that in 2025. I currently believe they have over 1M backlog for the Blackwell (most likely combined B100, B200, and GB200). On a 12" wafer and due to the size of the B200, The yield at 100% utilization is around 63. But I'm going to assume (which is reality) they're getting around 60% which would be good for the complexity. The size of the B200 is 1600 Sq. mm. It takes a lot of wafers to yield the 40k/month. I think what might be holding the stock down is there is still doubt in whether Nvidia can come close to meeting a decent portion of the monthly requirements. As stated, their backlog runs through 2025. I'm not sure if my numbers are accurate since I don't really know the yields but knowing the size of the B200 and the usable area on a 12" wafer, one can calculate the number.
At a significantly higher price
I have to agree. The Nikkei being down as much as they are now is not a good indication of what is going to transpire Monday. It seems like any temporary or slightly negative news or even potential news is enough to drive the market down. It's another good example of how traders have fantastic opportunities to capitalize on fear whether or not being a chicken little affect. The company will have strong 1st and 2nd quarters of 2025 providing they can deliver enough product to keep customers from going elsewhere.
According to Morningstar it looks like we had some more funds selling off some more Nvidia stock.
Of the Mag 7 it was again the worse performing stock and with some others in the grouping it came in 2nd. The frequency of worse performing is more frequent. I'm speaking percentage wise. The trend is still very negative. There are other factors driving this one down. It down past the 20, 50, 100 moving day average and soon could go past the 200 day average. I don't see any real correction through the rest of the year and expect the third quarter of this year to drive the stock lower. Any price above 120-130 within the next 3 months is wishful thinking. May after the first quarter of 2025 might get back to the 120 range.
Will close below 100 today and most likely be down between $7-$9, The big drop will happen in the last 30 minutes. $80 is coming and buyback won't start until after Jensen is done selling his stock. It wouldn't make sense or make people happy to see the company buying his stock while still selling. Look for the buyback to start in late Q1-mid Q2 of 2025 to coincide with volume sales of Blackwell and far better Q1 report. This could even drop to the 60-70 range because his next Q report isn't going to be near as good as the last. The last quarter should have better SP due to anticipation of volume shipments of Blackwell.
I previously stated this stock would definitely be in the 90's and most likely end up in the 80's before Blackwell volume numbers are reported. I've also stated the stock should have a strong rebound sometime in either Q1 or Q2 of next year. The problem with the rebound is how far down it has to start from. BOA's announcement of $165 target is not feasible (at least withing the next 8-12 months. BOA has also been known (when it was Merrill Lynch) to hand out buys with way over estimated targets and then get their good clients out. This practice has spread to other firms. I again will say the highest price over the next 8-12 months will most likely be in the 120's-130's. The reason for the drop in AI stocks is due to any number of factors but most likely is the fact or assumption that the benefit from the investment in AI hasn't or won't show benefits for the cost at this time is a valid comment. So Nividia will most likely have the reputation with the biggest or one of the biggest percentage drops in any given day of it's grouping.
First of all the VMware was an acquisition made in 2023. I think you should look at the revs from 2023 up to and including their Q2 report. In actuality. They have not done that well with the group since they acquired. the first quarter after Broadcom acquired saw a $600M loss in revenue. The supposedly great revenue increase with AI/VMware wasn't all that great. Next time do better on your search and dig a little deeper. You seem to be lacking in your investigative capabilities. But tomorrow will tell the story for Nvidia and their AI/VMware didn't help after hours for Broadcom. But tomorrow will show what the market thinks.on Broadcom.
I guess we'll find out the impact tomorrow. It all depends on how good their patent is.
Correct. But I was alluding because of Broadcom Nvidia will be down tomorrow. There is currently a strong move to discredit AI because of Chatbots and one or two other ridiculous reasons. AI is far more than Chatbots. It's used in analysis studies, R&D, forecasting, and I'm sure other applications. One can pick any scenario to show why something will fail. But one really should look more at what the technology offers in the long run and the fact it is a learning technology. It will continue to improve over the next 10 years and companies which should use it and don't will be left behind.
Which part. The aftermarket prices are posted by NASDAQ and Broadcom is involved with AI. Their Q wasn't good ergo the $10 drop in aftermarket. The affect on one company within a group can have an overall affect on the group unless you believe Broadcom isn't involved in AI. We shall see tomorrow as to "if" and how far Nvidia might drop.
Based on Broadcom's Q, I'm pretty sure it will have a negative affect on Nvidia opening bell tomorrow. Some of the aftermarket buys today were down as mucy as $5-6. Looks like a pretty strong attempt to drive the price down opening bell tomorrow.
Thanks. Try to present both sides. Every stock has its good and bad. Just need to find out what the causes are.
Thank you very much for the post. That was one of the best explanations of the issue with Blackwell along with the fix why Nvidia will grow. I'm not saying the stock won't continue to drop between now and end of the year or at least through the 3rd quarter of this year but gives me a lot more confidence the stock will have a significant rebound in Q1/Q2 of next year when the numbers are available for Blackwell and their hardware. I would strongly suggest everyone watch the video.
Glad someone's thinking. You aught to see the types of responses I get on Yahoo for posting this type of comment. It's like I've threatened their life.
Ok, I understand. To say my post was so negative when I posted comments made by other news sources is a strong statement. It's good to know why a stock goes up but even better to know why a stock drops which is hard for people to want to grasp. I was a booster for Nvidia but boosting now isn't going to help much. BTW Nvidia announced a $25B buyback in August of 2023 and what I've read is they've purchased around $15.5B back. So a $50B authorized buyback seems more like huff and puff. I'm sure they'll buy back a portion but can't see the whole $50B in one or two years based on supposedly not completing the $25B authorized in 2023. There's a lot of information to go through when investigating Nvidia but some of it makes sense as far as the trend which is going on now.
Who said lie? I didn't. What I stated was authorized. I think you should learn to read first. If you think that $50B will happen before year end, I definitely want to sell you shares in a bridge. I believe you're the only one stating he lied. Quit trying to push it on someone else. I have also stated even he there was a $5-10B buyback, it would make much of a dent in the total shares outstanding (you probably failed math too). Why would he buyback stock while still selling. I'm sure people would have a field day with that one (company buying back insider stock sales?)
I think you'll find the price before end of year in the low 80's. Justification is as follows:
TSM has limited capacity and those who can't get Blackwell will migrate to AMD or their own products. Way too many shares outstanding. I doubt very much Nvidia will be buying back enough stock this year to have any sort of impact. As long as insiders are still selling, I doubt there will be any buyback until they're done. So maybe next year it'll start after they start delivering larger volumes of Blackwell. To increase production on Blackwell, Nvidia will most likely have to kick in more money to TSM which will limit amount of buyback. Nvidia is in a tough position with 4 customers controlling such a huge part of their business.
A good bye in at this time might be the 80-90 range. I still anticipate the stock surging in 1st or 2nd quarter next year but not more than 130. Two major factors which will limit stock price. One is way too many shares outstanding and the other is limited production capacity (which is already an issue) from their supplier. That $50B authorization is nothing more than an authorization and even if they do buy $5-10B this this year, it won't make much of a dent. I still believe either Q1 or Q2 of next year will show good results but not enough to take it much above 130 due to reasons previously stated.
Agree to a buyout but would discount IBM. I would think either Amazon or Microsoft. I would even consider Alphabet since they have done some work and it would be good to assist their cloud computing.
It looks very interesting. I would like to compare the two approaches (IBM and IonQ) for error correction. I am aware IonQ moved up from in the August 2024 report from a report done in 2023. I was also looking at buying IonQ stock before I jumped into Nvidia. I decided it was too early to invest. My decision wasn't based on IonQ but how long I felt it would take for the technology to reach an acceptable point. I do think the future of AI for highly complicated operations (such as accurate weather forecasting) is in quantum computing. My limiting issue is my overall knowledge of quantum computing and have to spend a lot of time looking at different sources to explain all the aspects (there isn't a good single source for "Quantum mechanics for dummies"). I'm assuming you hold some stock in the company. If/when IonQ gets the recognition/acceptance for their technology, the stock will immediately doubt then gradually triple and go higher. I have a hard time waiting in terms of years.