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Made a ton of money recently myself, in puts, listening to myself and others that have confirmed my analysis.
This is true, and a reason to be cautious and hedging. The mirage is never easy to figure out.
This is on the precipice of a VERY hard down move, once it gets below the red support line to stay there is no turning back and it will accelerate in my opinion. Twice it peaked below only to stick save it back above. As soon as it releases below that line, the bottom of the channel, way down, will be in play.
Only question is will they prop this up for today due to quarter end, and save that big down move for Monday or not?
Yeah seems like MP is more effective in bull markets, which are methodical, stair stepping, balancing, and then predicting when the next move up will occur.
I remember you saying you and BT nailed the waves in the 08 bear. I feel like bear markets are closer to true EW context, and it is very helpful to use. Bull markets I have trouble applying EW at all.
Those EW guys, Avi and others, not sure how they can navigate this market using EW alone. I have to LOL. Avi uses EW and MACD. He's got 3 counts currently, some looking higher and some lower, and has been switching his primary all year. Bottom line he's been looking the wrong direction most of the year. Well, he's always looking both directions so I guess he's always partially right.
He's been pretty good in the past but when his primary is wrong, he can be all over the place for months at a time. He was like that in 2019, now again in 2022.
It's a good supporting analysis but NEVER should be a primary tool.
For anyone looking to implement or get better (like myself) at stops for options, this tweet from MPW is GOLD & also for those using TOS, check out this video on setting conditional sell orders for options, which can also be used for stops. It is a long vid but the key part is setting conditional sells, ie setting a conditional order to sell your SPY options when SPY is a certain price, NOT when the SPY option is a certain price. That starts at about the 6:00 mark.
MPW "Steps to avoid BIG LOSS in trading"
Stop Loss: (1) many ask Qs about how to set up stop loss--it takes months, if not years of experience to master it. (2) 80-90% of ALL MY CLOSING TRADES are triggered by a stop market order--some conditionals. (3) when I loss, it is 10-15%; when I win, it is normally doubled. 👇 pic.twitter.com/OoGqykshM0
— Master WU (@MasterPandaWu) September 28, 2022
Not sure anyone wants to be a long into tomorrow. I don't want to be long or short, just looking for spot to exit puts later today.
In bear markets, boyz love to run it up into a close then gap and run it the other way. It's the best way for them to clear the docket of puts and catch everyone flat footed.
Happens all the time......
Upon further review of chart, I think tomorrow sets up next leg down and am planning accordingly.
Wave 4 imo, gonna be choppy for a bit. Glad I'm golfing tomorrow, don't want to trade this.
Jerry was right in AM saying don't trade, and I think there's a couple more days (or more) of that potentially.
Either another bear flag, or something bigger. SPX 3720 key spot. I have multiple resistances there. If it doesn't get thru there, probably just a bear flag.
I think it gets thru though. We're overdue for a more robust squeeze.
If one method of TA worked all the time, it would be too easy. It's a puzzle, and every day it may be a different piece of TA that fits.
And trading-wise too, different methods work in different markets. Right now I am trading completely differently than normal, holding for continuation when I do get in which is not my comfort zone. Normally I am playing for chop, buying selling frequently.
MPW retweeted you on his main feed! He's got 53K followers and he retweeted you. Pretty good that.
You got good stuff Cycles, but WU has been the best over the past year and I follow the best......He is probably the top trader I've seen in my 30+ years...his trades confirm it....You both are good, but WU is the best I've seen and that's honest Truth and NO BS...All Facts.
— learningthetruth (@learningdatruth) September 23, 2022
DANG, they artificially exploded the VIX up to the TL!
I was napping, not thinking I would trade any more today, and when I awoke, WOW, VIX had gone all the way from 29.01 (where I posted earlier today) to the TL @ 32.31, all on just a relatively mild and organized move down in the SPX, and was now back down to 30.25.
So, true to my plan, I bought them anyway 9/28 VIX 29 puts @ .55.
SPX continuous 1 hr chart at TL.
Both shorts and longs risky here imo, although it really should bounce here and if it does, how high or fast, who knows.
Shorts are getting over confident June lows will be tested today, and this support area is perfect place for rug pull on shorts before it gets to June lows.
FWIW out all puts and in cash.
Agree, do not touch longs. Use higher prices to re-load, if we get higher prices.
Gap over some supports looks like, should get continuation but it may back test first. Might be ugly red bar candle day.
Could test June lows today.....
Never a direct line, so I'm going to try to continue building on the recent success I've had exiting a tranche of puts at support, and re-loading at a higher level.
I've got 3720-30 as support zone on SPX continuous chart, see what it does if it gets there. I'll likely exit puts (not all) and re-evaluate at that level.
Thinking larger degree wave 3 takes us well below June lows. Squiggle waves up will occur and make many believe the tide has shifted, but I believe the overall trend down will remain in place.
As we have been saying, don't miss the wave 3. I'm positioned and have been. Made some mistakes, but mucho profits too. Plenty of chicken left on the bone.
Before long the task will be to recognize the start of wave 4, and NOT TRADE IT. Do not lose the wave 3 profits trading wave 4. DO NOT DO IT. I will repeat to myself 100 times.
H&S patterns in bear markets are often reliable, just as inverted H&S patterns are in bull markets. That is especially true in this bear market, as each H&S thus far, 4 of them on larger time frames, have been true to concept.
The concept goes, that the minimum distance after neck line break should be at least as long as the distance from head peak to neck line. As you can see, this has been the case.
And now that the current (and largest) H&S has decidedly broken, what is the minimum target to confirm? You can see in the depiction below, red arrows.
Markets are full of surprises and broken patterns though, so anything is possible.
The best traders are never married to a bias, long or short, and must be willing to flip as the market dictates. In my mind biases are OK as long as it is supported by market behavior. When the behavior fails to support it, get rid of the bias.
Yes gap down looks in order. A couple head fakes on Fed day, always expected.
CNBC article had it at 4.6%. Not sure which is correct?
Powell has been especially hawkish lately. This was sort of expected and I don't think what we hear at 2:30 changes that.
Market is looking for some sort of bread crumbs it can be positive about, nothing yet.
You lie. I think it's time for you to re-read this, from January......
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167552139
Now.....post YOUR trades from that time frame. Thought so.
Your only intention in posting here is self serving and then later to troll others who know more than you. You do not intend to learn from anyone here. So why are you here?
All just jockeying prior to Fed, and even after Fed we'll probably have fake moves like usual. It's going to be difficult to navigate. Market will try to get everyone to make an emotional trade, and it will probably be the wrong one.
Up after Fed is a possibility of course. Not the one I think will happen, but possible.