Staying busy livin'
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The market is higher now than the day Obama was inaugurated. Looks to me like the market is gaining some traction and confidence in Obama's plans.
Time to be on your toes with eyes wide open. A little profit taking going on now, but that's to be expected as there's still plenty of fear out there.
But things are starting to look different.
Best of luck to all my friends.
The more I understand about Geitner's plan, the more I like it.
Don't bet against Obama and his team. He's one smart cookie and a straight up guy who's actually on OUR side.
I think we're going to see the changes in the market and the government that we've been waiting for lo these many years.
He's dead serious about it and has the tools to do it with. As long as the congress doesn't stand in his way I think we could be coming out of this very soon.
Hope you guys are holding up ok in this maelstrom. I've been out and watching from the sidelines for awhile and haven't been around here much.
Some day it'll be the right time to move back in. Hope it's soon. And hope to find you here when it happens.
Keeping my eyes peeled for that special moment and I'll be here raving about it when I think I see it.
Till then, hang in there and best of luck to all of ya.
Steve
I doubt we've even seen the tip of the iceberg yet VIP. This "rot" has been allowed to fester for a long long time and I'm pretty sure it's deeply embedded in vitually every nook and cranny of this system.
It'll take as long to irradicate it.
Just in case you guys aren't avid fans of Jon Stewart as I am and you might not have seen this comedy clip about CNBC, I offer you this 3rd party commentary and Stewart's hysterically funny and painfully TRUE assesment of CNBC's "money honey's" and "frat boys"(video clip).
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cnbc-easy-target-jon-stewarts/story.aspx?guid=%7BEAB2CEB9%2D0F7A%2D444A%2DB131%2D4821D7C59315%7D&dist=TNMostRead
Better read this!>>>> Finally,...FINALLY...the REAL STORY is about to go public.
This is the story that's going to make all the previous stories look like a walk in the park.
The $700 TRILLION 'elephant in the room' is being contemplated...the first time the word "QUADRILLION" is being used.....and why DOW 4000 may look good pretty soon.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-700-trillion-elephant-room/story.aspx?guid=%7B024DB809%2D8506%2D4AA9%2D83BB%2DB053FD4E1C11%7D
Congrats on the new piano! That'll come as a welcome distraction from all the destruction I bet. And you paid it forward too.
You're a good man Charlie Brown. :D
As for the silver/gold sell off....I think you nailed it. I've heard the talking heads saying the same thing.
Make some music musicman. Music to soothe the savage breast. We could all use some of that.
USD looks to be breaking out to the upside for the morning judging by it's current price at midnight...
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=DXY&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=7&freq=1&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=Enter+Symbol%28s%29%3A&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=0&ma=2&maval=35&lf=16&lf2=32&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&optstyle=1013
and the index futures are down pretty hard for tomorrow. Down 100 pts right now at midnight.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
Reaching critical mass now as to the support/resistance levels on the indices and the USD. Won't be long before we get the market's decision on the next level.
Batton down the hatches.
Some pretty high up folks already figure we're already in a depression that's just beginning.
The dollar is acting counterintutively in this situation because this situation is not like a normal cyclical recession that ebbs and flows with supply and demand imbalances.
This is what I'm now calling a "systemic recession" where the entire structure of the system is failing. It's really just another word for depression when you think about it.
In this particular case, and unlike the other depression, we're in a truly global economy and the dollar is only holding up because it's the "least bad" fiat currency, and still holds most peoples trust. Again, only relative to other currencies.
It's the "last bastion" of fiat currency. And you're right that if the good ole' USD loses it's psychological value, THEN....watch precious metals(mostly gold unfortunately, but hopefully silver too)skyrocket.
Sadly, that'll not be much solace compared to the misery and danger that's likely abound in a global depression.
Bullets, canned food and toilet paper will probably be more in demand than little pieces of shiny metal.
It's probably gonna be a rougher ride than almost anybody is yet prepared for. I hope I'm wrong.
Everything is at critical levels right now, including the DOW, the USD, the VIX etc.
We're at a super, mega, humongous inflexion point at this moment and it looks to me like the mantra has been and still is...sell into any rallies.
As far as skimming by the sharks...On Fast Money (CNBC) one of the "sharks" revealed a little secret on how his trading desk operates.
They use a sophisticated computer program that watches literally every trade and calculates (based on a mathematical formula) the levels of buying and selling "pressure" in all stocks and futures options based on how many trades go off at the bid or ask and levels in between to detect institutional buying/selling so that they can get in front of any moves.
Computer trading accounts for something like 90% of all trading that happens now. It's hard out there for a little pimp like you and me. LOL
I just realized that this is not only the day of a daily and weekly close, it's the monthly close too. Talk about a convergence of forces!
3 closes, at a MAJOR inflexion point.
Don't rule out the possibility of a huge rally starting Monday based on the technical fibonacci, a new day, week And month. IT COULD HAPPEN.
Or...6K, 5K,...4K????
A few hundred Perp Walks might reinstill confidence. LOL
Nice article. Too bad I won't be alive to take advantage of it. It's almost here.
This one was just about 100 miles from us here. I give it another 3 weeks tops before the BIG ONE hits the San Juan subduction fault for a 9+ monster quake.
:/
Gulp!
Thursday, February 26, 2009 11:18 AM PST
Your Keyword News Alert for [EARTHQUAKE PACIFIC]
matched the following stories:
The Oregonian, Thu, 26 Feb 2009 10:00 AM PST
"Light earthquake" shakes Southern Oregon http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/light_earthquake_shakes_southe.html
A magnitude 4.1 earthquake has been recorded beneath a mountainous area 25 miles south-southeast of the Coos County town of Powers. The Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington in Seattle said the quake happened about 2 a.m....
Watch for 50% fibonacci bounce/reversal at 1/2 the highest closing price for the DOW.
You can use either the weekly or daily close. I prefer to us the lower of the two in this case.
The highest Daily close was 14,164 and the highest Weekly close was 14,093.
50% Fibonacci retracement numbers...(Daily-7,082 or Weekly-7,047)
And tomorrow will be both a daily and a weekly close!
D-Day is upon us boyz! R U Ready?
Interesting that we closed today at EXACTLY 100 points above 50% fibonacci for the highest daily close. To say that Tomorrow's close will be VERY TELLING, is to make one huge understatement!
Be there or be square! LOL
And remember...it's the close that matters. Not the Intraday. That's important if you use this technical model.
Good luck everybody, and God save the King!
Chart from that time period below...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart9:symbol=^dji;range=20070926,20071026;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=cross;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Watch for 50% fibonacci bounce/reversal at 1/2 the highest closing price for the DOW.
You can use either the weekly or daily close. I prefer to us the lower of the two in this case.
The highest Daily close was 14,164 and the highest Weekly close was 14,093.(7,082 or 7,047) If those don't hold...????
Interesting that we closed today at EXACTLY 100 point above one of those.???
And remember...it's the close that matters. Not the Intraday. That's important if you use this technical model.
Chart from that time period...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart9:symbol=^dji;range=20070926,20071026;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=cross;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
USD (DXY) is below 86 at the moment (12 midnight PDT) and silver is holding relatively steady.
DOW and NASD futures are up nicely as expected with the dollar down.
I think we're gonna' get a pop here.
Hope you had a good weekend. I spent my time getting up to speed with my friends on Mafia Wars on Facebook. LOL
They're addicted to it and now so am I me thinks.
Are you a Facebook(er)? Interesting place/concept. Growing like wildfire.
USD at what is being tested as a double top. Could be the turning point for stocks. Maybe...!
USD index(DXY) needs to break above 88.70ish and hold to continue it's uptrend and continue the downtrend in stocks. Conversely, it needs to break 86.00ish and hold to begin confirming the double top and the new downtrend.
I also believe that if it decides to drop and break out to the downside that precious metals will accelerate to the upside, although it's going up nicely in tandem with the recent rise in the DOLLAR INDEX anyway in anticipation of hyper-inflation in the future.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=27785873
I guess the word "production" is the problem. What I meant by 'production' was BRINGING IT UP OUT OF THE GROUND...in other words, wells.
The production you're talking about is the compression/liquifaction of somebody else's gas.
As I said before...the business consists of compression/liquifaction of NG, transportation of NG and sales of their compressed/liquified NG.
They are not "producers" of the NG directly...no wells.
The following is the post I was responding to originally...
--------------------------------------------------------
Posted by: trade2much Date: Friday, February 20, 2009 11:34:27 AM
In reply to: DeepBlue1 who wrote msg# 345 Post # of 359
Deep CNG & LNG are what it makes I realize but they did list having 2 wells as source of NG unless I imagined it. Maybe I'm getting old, but I don't think was imaginary.
60-90 million gallons of what? LNG? We're talking about production now right?
Do you mean cubic feet? CNG?
Got a link?
Right. Other than a little methane they are not producers.
That would be news to me.
At any rate, the vast bulk of their business is basically as a gas station builder and supplier.
Any production is immaterial if it exists.
CLNE doesn't produce NG. It compresses, transports and sells it.
When the price of NG goes up it doesn't have a direct effect on CLNE's business other than to dampen demand for NG.
Also, NG is often a by product of oil production. So if production is cut there will be somewhat less NG to go around as well, which could raise the price to some small extent.
But for the most part, the rise in price of NG that CLNE pays can and will be passed on to the consumer which means CLNE's bottom line remains basically the same.
They were sold shares, but at what price is in question. Probably given a helluva deal in order to secure more capital for the company.
Guaranteed it's a lot less than your average slob has to pay, but still more than the free ones the insiders constantly give themselves.
This looks like it's turning into a cash cow for them and their big investors...at your expense.
By the way...the company has missed analyst estimates every quarter except the very first one. And this next one calls for the biggest loss to date by a wide margin.
The way things are going these days, this will most likely be a catastrophic miss.
Get ready to be reamed like the new boy in the big house.
And don't forget that this market is once again peering over the abyss and CLNE is a speculative stock. I wouldn't want to be long any speculative stocks at this moment for that reason alone.
If the market dives from here(which I give a better than 50/50 chance), it'll drag this and all speculative stocks with it even more than the more established ones.
A long term chart of the DOW going back to the Great Depression shows the bottom of the trendline at just below 4000.
I'm pretty sure we'll see at least as low as 6000 even with all the govt efforts to slow the fall.
Good luck
It simply means that the short interest hasn't risen month over month as some have suggested erroneously.
I added some more info to that post too that you might want to read.
IMO, the combination of CLNE missing last qtr's estimate to the downside and the consensus of this quarter's estimate is what is driving down the share price. Not more shorting.
The S8 and the insider share awards aren't doing much for the share price either for that matter. Check out all the form 4s. The insiders are diluting the crap out of it.
Short Interest
Shares Short (Current Month) 4.2M
Short Ratio 11.3x
Short Interest as % of Float 12.80%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 4.2M
*Data updated twice a month by the 18th and 29th respectively
On 11/13/2008, CLNE reported 3rd quarter 2008 losses of $0.24 per share. This result missed the $0.22 loss expectation of the 8 analysts following the company and missed last year's 3rd quarter results by -32,768.0%. The next earnings announcement is expected on 03/05/2009.
Q4 2008
The concensus of the 8 analysts
covering CLNE for 4th qtr 2008
is a per share value of -$.35
Just did a quickie 1 yr chart on silver. There'll probably be some resistance at the downtrend line(s) at $15, $16, and $17 ish, although that's the zone that silver was in free fall on the way down so there's not a lot of noise/congestion in that area to confuse things. It'll be an interesting pivot point/zone to watch.
A convincing break above that would be bullish for silver and will probably also mean that the Dow is in free fall and has broken convincingly below the current level.
Thinking out loud here on silver....
silver has changed from it's inverse relationship to the dollar and now seems to be trading on fear of inflation in the future and devaluation of all currencies as they pump money into the system.
With the dollar strong at the moment it would seem to be a good time to buy silver with dollars since you can get more for less. But when inflation does kick in it'll scream higher(remember, I'm just thinking here)
Since DEC/JAN, silver is trading in an inverse relationship to the market instead of in tandem with it. It's gaining momentum and is one of the very few things going up now, which would seem to drive just that many more people into it.
It's catching up with gold as the ratio is narrowing.
And like that article said...all it'll take is one high profile investor asking for his physical silver and it not being delivered to send it flying to it's historical ratio to gold and maybe beyond.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=DXY&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=7&freq=2&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=slv&compidx=DJIA%7E1643&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=0&ma=2&maval=35&lf=16&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&optstyle=1013
Hmmmmmm.....
I was looking at a chart of the DOW going back to just before the Great Depression.
If you draw a trend line along the bottoms from just after the Depression until now it ends up at just below 4000.
That trendline inplies the normal growth curve over time and eliminates the bubble that began in the '80s when this new leveraging approach began that set off the hyper-growth over the last 30yrs or so.
Now that banks are being forced back into the more normal range of leveraging I fully expect the Dow to revert to it's mean.
How we get back there is the only question in my mind. We can either head back there fast, hit the 4K level and immediately resume normal growth....OR,
we can slow down the free-fall and drag this out for several years and have a slower fall while we wait for the normal growth trend to catch up with us.
Even with this parachute that Obama is attempting to supply us with, we can only slow down the fall. How much it slows down will determine how low it goes before the trend catches up.
It's like jumping out of a plane. You're gonna' hit the ground one way or the other. NO PARACHUTE = freefall to 4K ...PARACHUTE = drift sideways in the wind for several years and dropping to 6K
Even with a good parachute, I think we're in for our own version of Japan's "lost decade". Without one...ARMAGEDDON
(click on chart link below and then click on MAX for the time scale to see the chart of the Dow from 1925 to the present. It clearly shows the Great Depression drop, the post WW2 bubble and the post 1985 leverage bubble. Now we're going back to the normal and sustainable growth trend. How long it takes to get back there is wholly dependent on how good our parachute is and how far we drift sideways on the way down. 4Ks/5Ks/6Ks....all possible)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart5:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Why silver performs better than gold
2009-02-16 09:30:00
Peter J. Cooper
The closing price for silver last week was $13.70 while gold was at $941 per ounce. Precious metal prices are clearly in a rally, and a fairly gentle and sustainable one, rather than a price spike.
And yet silver is out performing gold. By my approximate calculations silver has risen about four times faster than the yellow metal over the past few weeks.
Of course, we have also seen this volatility work in reverse as recently as last spring. Then silver suddenly lost more than half its value while gold proved more resilient and rebounded more quickly.
However, the idea that silver will lag along way behind gold - due to its status as an industrial metal hit by the recession - and then catch up at sometime in the future, looks disproved.
Indeed, the message is surely that if you think the current gold rally has further to run - and the long list of financial experts jumping on this bandwagon now appears worryingly like a consensus view - then you might do much better to buy silver instead.
Certainly historical precedent is on your side if you do as the gold:silver price ratio always tends to narrow in a financial crisis. One reason is that silver stocks are less than a hundredth the size of gold stocks and so there is the simple play of supply and demand on the price relative to the supply and demand of gold.
Gold bugs hate to admit this obvious truth and can reasonably point to the volatile trading history of silver which has a nasty habit of catching silver-bulls out. Yet silver is currently trading at a lower absolute price per ounce than 30 years ago, and any suggestion of over-valuation is laughable.
It is also true that the silver futures market is the most manipulated in the world. That makes serious trading activity impossible, and buy-and-hold the only sensible strategy.
However, there has been plenty of evidence recently to suggest that the control of the spot price of silver by the future market is about to breakdown. And when that happens silver prices will go to the moon.
Courtesy: www.silverseek.com
Just wanted to let you see this article that has a blurb near the end of it that reiterates that technical fund buying is occuring in silver due to the narrowing of the gold/silver ratio back toward normal ranges.
A nice third party confirmation of what we've been expecting to happen eventually, and it's nice that it's also institutional buying.
I have a feeling that by the time the hyper inflationary mode hits, the institutions will be well positioned to take advantage of the improving ratio.
Here's the article...
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-silver-fall-on-dollar-gain-15002-3-1.html
VIX is at a critical point on the 10 day chart with no more room left to squeeze it. Gonna' make a big move within a few hours of right now looks like.
The USD is screaming up after hours also, so I'm betting the VIX is going to make a big move up out of this wedge.
The market's just been waiting and aiming for this "buy the rumor, sell the news" move on Obama's stimulus plan.
Tomorrow the market tanks along with precious metals.
Hang on to your hat, and short something quick!
We're gonna' test the bottom again. Only thing that might keep it from breaking down below the old low will be hope that jobs and foreclosures are no more than 6 mths from turning around.
Personally, I think it's gonna take a lot longer than 6 mths to reach that point.
If Dow 6k is gonna' happen, it's probably just around the corner now.
Best of luck guys. TTYL
Yeah, we'll be the most popular guys living under the bridge.
Good news for SILVER and GOLD, but especially SILVER...
UBS raises 2009 gold forecast to $1,000/oz, ups silver, platinum
London (Platts)--4Feb2009
UBS has raised its average gold price forecast to $1,000/oz for 2009, and
expects the strength in gold to pull prices for silver and platinum up along
with it, the investment bank said Wednesday.
"Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months as
investors' fears about the current financial crisis and the possible outcomes
from government efforts to support banks and economies have intensified," UBS
said.
"We believe that a doubling in investment demand (compared to 2007) is a
reasonable assumption considering the recent inflows into the gold ETFs, where
the past six months of purchases has totalled 8.65 million oz, slightly more
than the full-year inflow of 8.1 million oz into these products in 2007," the
company said.
This figure is also consistent with the reports of physical investment
flows into bars and coins over the past six months and estimates by a UK-based
consultancy GFMS of bar hoarding in the second half of 2008, UBS suggested.
"Based on simple regression modelling we estimate that this will drive
gold to an average $1,000/oz in 2009, from $700/oz previously," UBS said. "For
2010 we have assumed that investment demand will fall back to the already high
levels seen in 2008, which generates a gold price of approximately $900/oz,
and we see the gold price falling back further to $800/oz in 2011."
RAISES 20089 SILVER FORECAST TO $14.75/OZ
The company has also raised its silver price forecast for the period,
noting that "compared to gold, silver does not have as wide an appeal as a
safe-haven investment, the metal is not without its adherents: as gold moves
higher, silver tends to follow."
UBS now sees silver averaging $14.75/oz in 2009 and $12.80/oz in 2010,
from its previous forecasts of $8.40/oz and $8.95/oz, respectively.
"The metal's greater proportion of industrial applications has seen
silver underperform gold over the past year ... but a rising price environment
for gold should see silver reverse some of this underperformance," UBS said.
In addition, there are indications from the recent performance of silver
that the metal has been able to lose some of its industrial tarnish, the bank
said, adding that correlations with the copper price - which increased in
2008 as silver fell sharply - have recently declined, while silver's
correlation with gold has increased back toward historical norms.
"Consequently we have made greater upgrades to the silver price compared
to gold," UBS said. "But despite this, silver's historically higher
volatility, especially to the downside during times of correction, makes it a
riskier investment than gold."
PLATINUM 2009 FORECAST UP, PALLADIUM UNCHANGED
UBS has raised its average platinum forecast for 2009 to $1,050/oz from
$900/oz, and left its 2010 forecast unchanged at $1,100/oz.
"Platinum very rarely trades at a discount to gold and when it does, the
discounts are short-lived," the bank noted. The market is seeing some
safe-haven buying, jewelry demand remains relatively buoyant compared to other
precious metals, and the destocking by automotive companies which hit prices
in 2008 is unlikely to be repeated, UBS suggested.
The bank left its forecast for palladium unchanged at $190/oz in 2009 and
$233/oz in 2010.
"We have made no changes to our forecasts for palladium, where the
interplay between limited safe-haven demand, ample above-ground stocks and
poor industrial demand has left the palladium market steady around our prior
forecast levels," UBS said.
Similar stories appear in Platts Metals Week.
See more information at http://plattsmetals.platts.com
I've been wondering the same about you for months.
You still day trading? And if so, what are you playing?
No pennys please. I swore off them and I'm stickin' to it.
It's starting to feel like that big quake I predicted a few months ago for our area around the first of the year is getting very close.
Earthquakes in S. Cal and Seattle and a volcano ready to blow in Alaska.
The quakes have been everywhere on the Ring of Fire EXCEPT HERE for years now. They can't/won't dance around both sides of us forever without finally banging us good here soon.
I expect to be feeling that 9+ quake, the ensuing tsunami and a new volcanic island sprouting from the Pacific off the central Oregon coast any time now.
Remember...you heard it here first. :D
Just wanted to say it's been nice knowin' ya'll in case I don't make it through.
I agree it has a lot going for it, and that's why it's been holding up so well and been so steady in the face of all this volatility.
Hadn't heard about Pelose and her husband buying shares. That could be trouble for her in the future if she doesn't recuse herself at the proper moments.
And I'm a huge Obama fan and all for alternative energy too, but less of a fan of Pelosi, and I question her intelligence more often than I'd like to have to.
She'll probably get preferential treatment too though,(preferred shares/warrants?),and so she'll probably do well with this in any case. She better have the shares in a blind trust though if she has any smarts.
I'm disappointed in the percentage of the stimulus plan that's been earmarked for infrastructure too.
Best of luck to you. I dont want to fill up your board with negativity so I'll just leave now with one final comment...
maybe if they stopped issuing shares to the CEO and the large beneficial owners of the company like Boone's wife, they'd have a better chance for stock price appreciation.
The employees hopefully aren't so gullible as to think that the price is going to move up strongly while the company is constantly diluted by giving FREE SHARES to the already wealthy CEO and large owners.
Take a look at the Form 4's over the life of the company. I haven't added up how many free shares have been awarded to the already rich insiders, but it is very substantial.
I do wish you the best of luck and great success with your investment here. I hope it works out the way you want it to.
In my experience, this "incentive" usually ends up in the hands of the upper eschelon execs. It's a million shares of dilution no matter how you want to look at it.
It tells me that the execs don't think they're getting paid enough. Sound familiar?
It's also been my experience that once they start doing this, they keep doing it. It's just too easy and too lucrative for them to resist.
If you think they aren't getting paid enough already I guess you won't mind. I'd prefer to pay them in cash for performance on a year to year basis. And if they can't generate any cash then they don't get any more money.
I've just seen too many companies gutted with this tactic and I'm not going to stick around to watch.
I was really liking CLNE until I saw that S-8 filing. That only spells one thing...dilution.
I was really hoping they wouldn't do that with this one, but I just can't stay long on it if that's the game they're going to play.
Bye Bye CLNE...it was nice knowin' ya.
Yo! Good to see you back. Sounds like it was a pretty good trip all in all. You're a little broker than you were but I'll wager your batteries are charged back up. Time away is usually well worth the expense in my experience.