Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
gfp: It's a response to the statements that Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO. Putin just has to outlast Biden. If Trump is elected there will be no more money and weapons for Ukraine. Zelensky will have to cut a deal and retire to one of his mansions, probably in Florida. It's why the Uniparty wants to crush Trump. The Republicans are going to be much more vigilant with regard to election integrity this time around. The election of 2020 was so clearly stolen. Fulton County Georgia alone double scanned over 300,000 ballots to steal Georgia. So the Democrat/Deep State will use illegal aliens to vote. They didn't open the border so we could all have cheaper gardeners and hotel maids. They have been encouraged and aided to invade for a reason. To destroy the country Cloward-Piven style.
gfp: Another WEF graduate who ruined the country she was elected to lead. Just Like Justin (Castro) Trudeau
Rinear. 5/5/24
Logo3.gif
*****************************************************************************************
Financial Intelligence Report
The Newsletter for people willing to take control of their financial future
**********************************************************************************
Greetings Friends!
This is today's issue of the Financial Intelligence Report
Contributing Editors: Bob Rinear, Ted, Chuck and the Crew!
Wall Street Lunacy donated by Jerome Powell, and Central Bankers the world over! Who else can print money and buy stocks?!
*******************************************************************************************
Part 1: General Commentary
Part 2: Market Commentary
Are you ready for this?
If you ever wondered just how badly our nation has been handled, it is IMPERATIVE that you watch this 1.3 minute clip.
Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy. Listen to him reply to a very simple question...
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1786049431478939649/pu/vid/avc1/640x360/aeGhMl9mu7IYA4sr.mp4?tag=12
Are ya gettin this? Can you believe this guy? He can't explain it, because it would expose how fake everything is. Speaking of fake, did you see the jobs report and the Services PMI Friday morning? Better works of fiction are never to be found.
Let's start with the jobs. The big "bugaboo" for the fed, according to Powell is that the labor market is still really tight and that's adding inflation. So, the wink and the nod was given to the BLS, to produce numbers that are much more "fed friendly."
Boy, did they deliver.
So the headline jobs number was that we gained 175K jobs, Much lower than anticipated. Now, first off let me chat about that for a minute. The fed's job is to lie to us. It's all a show. On one hand they have to make you believe things are better than they are, but not make it look so good that you question them about it.
The BLS's "birth/death" model added 363K jobs in April. Whoa! So Bob, if the headline says we gained 175K jobs, but the fake, made up, phantom jobs from the B/D added 363,000 to that "official" number, didn't we really LOSE like 188,000 jobs? YES we did.
But, the BLS can't put out the real jobs number, because if the news stations started broadcasting that in April we LOST 188K jobs on top of the actual loses in Jan-March, it would look VERY bad for Biden and the Fed. Don't forget one of their so called "mandates" is Maximum sustainable employment. Well it wouldn't look too damn maximum sustainable if you're puking up 200K jobs in a month. So, they lie about it. All of it.
Look at the unemployment rate. The market got all warm and fuzzy because it "rose" to 3.9%, again very favorable for a fed rate cut. But the real number is over 16%. They can't broadcast that, everyone would know the economy is in trouble. So they toss out a number that satisfies the fed and the market, and make it look better for the fed and Biden.
It's all lies. All of it.
Which brings us to the services PM. First up, what is it? Well, it's The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and it is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting as viewed by purchasing managers. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision-makers, analysts, and investors.
Well when that report hit, and it was weaker than expected, once again the market simply adored it. But should they have? In their view, it suggests slowing of the economy and thus again...rate cut friendly. But there's an issue.
ISM Services, like manufacturing, came in weaker than all the (57) forecasts that form the Bloomberg consensus forecast. The composite fell from 51.4 to 49.4, its lowest level since the end of 2022. Business activity witnessed the most significant drop -- to its lowest point since May 2020 -- while the employment component also exhibited weakness. So yeah, that sounds pretty ugly and gloomy, and would make for a good argument for a rate cut.
But wait a second... Isn't Powell's first agenda to stomp out inflation? Didn't he say we might have to have "higher for longer" to see if things are heading to his vaunted 2% target? Indeed he did, many times. Well there's a fly in that ointment, because while business activity slowed, Conversely, prices paid rebounded to their January levels, increasing from 53.4 to 59.2. Oh and that's just what they tell us. What's the real number? 65? More lies.
Whoa! Yeah Mr. Market, it would be best to just parade that slowing headline number around, because a jump that big in prices paid, is about as inflationary as it gets and is absolutely not Fed friendly.
We are definitely in the first stages of stagflation folks.
Now, people ask me all the time... doesn't the market know all the numbers are made up lies? If the jobs numbers are really that bad, and the inflation numbers are really that bad, why would the market ignore that, and run with the made up BS numbers?
They have no choice. Ever since the 80's they've had to come up with ways to hide the fact that our dollar was going to crap, inflation was eating our wages, and our manufacturing base was in the toilet. NO president wants to be the guy in charge of that, so the wink and nod was sent out to the bean counters, to come up with "new and improved ways" of measuring activity and inflation. Wall Street wasn't going to be the party pooper and expose the baloney, because 1) it would crater the market and 2) they'd have the intelligence agencies up their butt.
For instance, let's take inflation. In the early 80's if the prices in the CPI example list went higher, it was reported pretty honestly. But there were times when it was pretty ugly, and again, no administration wants ugly economic reports on their watch. So they dreamed up "hedonic"measurements. What's that? A way to hide inflation.
Let's say a gadget you want to buy is 1000 dollars. But by the time you actually buy it, the price has gone up to 1100. The reporting manager to the CPI might tell them that actually the price went down.
WHAT?? Yep, they'll say it's a newer, improved model, with more features and benefits. So while the price in dollars went up, the value to the user went up more, therefore the overall reported number would be....the price fell. I'm not making this up folks, I'll give you an example from their own website:
This is for men's shirts. Here all shirts are either short sleeve or long sleeve and either cotton/poly or 100% cotton. After doing the statistical processing BLS might estimate that v1 = 0.15 and v2 = 0.25. This indicates that a long sleeve shirt is 15 percent more valuable than a short sleeve one and that a 100% cotton shirt is 25 percent more valuable than a cotton/poly blend shirt.
If the BLS data collector is forced to replace a short-sleeve cotton/poly shirt in the CPI sample with a long sleeve 100% cotton shirt, the CPI would adjust the price of the old item by the features in the new item, leading to a price adjustment of about 49 percent (e0.15+0.25).
If the price of the original shirt had been $20 and that of the replacement shirt $30, rather than using a $10 increase in price for that sample observation, the CPI would adjust the original shirt for sleeves and cotton content resulting in a price estimate of $29.84 (20*e0.15+0.25). This adjustment attributes most of the price difference between the shirts to the change in characteristics and an increase of only $0.16 is shown.
Ya get that? Shirt went up 10 bucks, they report it up 16 cents. Anyone still think inflation is 3%???? Well they do it with everything, along with "substitution" equations. If steak for example gets too high, they'll simply remove steak and substitute ground beef for the equation. It's all a game, a big fat lie and yes, Wall Street is well aware of it and plays right along.
Just understand that our system is wrecked. The fraud has gone on so long, it's so broken, it cannot be fixed. They just have to keep pushing the lies and borrowing from the future to keep the wheels on. One day, the axle will snap. Oh and it won't be pretty.
gfp: Nothing would surprise me any more. The Deep State and the globalists are capable of anything. They would welcome in nuclear war if they were assured of surviving it.
gfp: The next Plandemic. It will probably strike in late September and worn in October thereby necessitating ONLY mail in ballots for the Nov Election. Another steal for the Deep State.
gfp: The western nations are finished. I have a friend in Germany with 2 kids. They homeschool. But she sent me an article that children from Christian families are so outnumbered by muslin kids that they are converting to Islam so as to better fit in with their classmates. In Europe all the countries that accepted mass migration will be caliphates in 2 more generations. Needless to say I'm glad my wife and I were able to travel extensively in Europe before the 3rd world hordes ruined it and back when the US dollar still held good value. We have been to Germany several times, Italy 3 times, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and the UK. We never made it to Scandinavia but I don't like heir weather or their cuisine.
New Zealand was my favorite country in the world. But they went totalitarian when Jacinta Adhern was PM. Australia is the same. Unlivable if you value personal liberty. So if we feel we absolutely must leave we would probably flee to the mountains of Panama around Boquette. Or a coastal community in Costa Rica. There are some gated ex-pat communities with a mix of Americans, Canadians, and a few Europeans and Australians. I don't see either place going 100% to digital currencies. Too many peasant level unsophisticated people. I really hope it doesn't come to that. I'm content here for now. But I won't live in a country that is as totalitarian as China or North Korea.
gfp: All the Deep State tactics just put us incrementally closer to an all out civil war. We're heading that way. States are announcing that they will no longer follow certain Federal laws and Regulations on issues like Transexuals in women's sports, not allowing surgical gender procedures for minors, border issues, etc. The longer we allow a totalitarian minority to circumvent what's left of our Democracy the more entrenched it becomes. Trump, love him or hate him, is the last stand. If they take him out it might be time to reevaluate our strategy of remaining in the USA, despite our ages. I can't imaging living here under North Korean conditions.
gfp : Cash is not a bad route to take. A least you sleep better. I expect a lot of volatility this year and into next year. The markets could go higher if the Fed buys enough Treasuries to suppress interest rates. But job losses are mounting. The economy is weakening. Take away the contribution of all the deficit spending and GDP would be negative. We are entering an era of Stagflation. Hard assets have, in the past, done well in that macro scenario. Despite the sell off in Gold is does seem to be holding the $2300 level, at least so far. I like having some high dividend paying hard asset or pipeline plays like ENG and RIO. The yields are higher than you get in MM funds or Treasuries. And in the long run those types of stocks tend to do well in stagflationary times.
gfp; We crossed an important milestone this year. We now spend more on debt service than we do on our military. That's usually the beginning of the end for an empire. They now have to continue printing. They can't raise rates like Volker did. Nobody has the guts to do that anymore. The Government isn't going to cut spending. That never happens. They'll just inflate our deficits away. But our days are running short now. We're in a 4th Turning and look at what we have in Washington DC guiding our path. Idiots. Spineless jellyfish. And liberal activists. I'm once again casually looking at real estate alternatives overseas as a potential escape valve. We're probably too old to act on my impulse. But if we were younger we would be in the market for an overseas getaway and a possible 2nd passport. America is just about finished.
GFP: The McALvany Weekly Commentary talked about this in yesterday's episode. They think it's inevitable due to high number of people between 20 and 40 they need to keep employed. If they are not employed they might want to upset the apple cart. It will be good for gold. Shanghai is becoming the most important gold exchange in the world. The Chinese aren't stupid, unlike the asshats that inhabit Washington DC that are purposefully sending us down the drain.
gfp: There is the possibility of using your equity percentage on hard asset plays. Something like Enbridge (ENB) Pays > 7% dividend. RIO Tinto (RIO), another high dividend play with diversified mining. Newmont (NEM) 2.46% dividend yield while you wait for gold and silver to explode to the upside. The precious metal royalty companies are a good risk/reward play. I own Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wheaton (WPM) and Sandstorm (SAND) and some funds i have own Royal Gold (RGLD) and Osinko (OR). You could make up your entire equity investments in hard asset plays, some with decent dividend yields. That's the way to play this marker at this time. We've entered an era of Stagflation for sure. Job opening are down. Layoff are up. Inflation is trending back up. The FED will resume buying Treasuries to keep interest rates low....which is monetizing the debt, which will add gasoline to the inflation fire. Look for guidance to the previous stagflation era. What worked then will probably work now.
gfp: It's all bought and paid for by Soros or other Deep State actors. And Speaker Jellyfish Johnson allowed over $3 Billion in this last Ukraine waste of money to fund NGOs that are going to speed up the importation of more Muslims from the Middle East, as if there aren't enough potential enemies pouring through our southern border, again facilitated by NGOs funded by us taxpayers. Never in the history of mankind has the world seen a country committing suicide in one lifetime like our's is in the process of doing. This is all by design.
gfp: Everything about Uklraine is secretive. Biolabs, money laundering, grift.....it's a cesspool. And all the Congress critters that keep voting them more money while allowing open borders into our country should be rounded up and sent to the guillotine for public execution.
GFP: YOU KNOW THE OLD SAYING...THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH. I expect more failures to happen. Commercial Real Estate is not recovering. In some cities it's actually getting worse. And the FDIC is Trillions of Dollars underfunded.
gfp: I don't want riots in the streets either. But the Deep State and minions like George Soros are certainly funding that ultimate result. I think fostering upheaval is all they have left as their Presidential campaign. If T trump wins the left will unleash havoc with their Hamas groups, ANTIFA, BLM, etc. If the Deep State steals the election and Dementia Joe is reinstalled to allow Obama's 4th term then all bets are off. There will be calls for a Constitutional Convention to disband the country. And I would certainly support that outcome. I don't want to share governance of what remains of this country with the likes of liberal politicians from Commiefornia. Illinois, Oregon, New York, Taxachussetts, etc. I want as little to do with liberals as I possibly can. We share almost nothing in common. We aren't even living in the same reality. I'd rather be done with them. Family members included.
https://nypost.com/2024/04/26/us-news/george-soros-maoist-fund-columbias-anti-israel-tent-city/
George Soros. The dark money behind almost every plot to destroy the Country. The real life embodiment of the Anti-Christ. I hope he suffers a gruesome death as soon as possible. And his son Alex with him.
gfp; I am of the opinion that the Deep State will try to create as much upheaval this summer and into the fall leading up to the election as they can. You look at the college campus pro-Hamas protests. There is no way that has organically spread like a cancer. It is orchestrated, paid for, promoted and enabled by the Deep State using NGOs, dark money pools, and government operatives. They will either make thing so bad that the election is put in jeopardy, or they will steal the election AGAIN thereby triggering a civil war. Or they will resign themselves to Trump winning and once again use everything at their disposal to thwart his Presidency. More phony impeachments, more attacking his nominees, policies, etc. The trouble in a 50-50 country is that the Democrats stick together probably under threat of kiddie porn being found on their laptops. While the Republicans themselves are split 60-40. ^0% being conservative with some principles and 40% are gutless, self serving RINOs that would sooner vote with the Democrats than support Trump.
gfp: California is a beautiful place. It's too bad the liberals took it over and ruined it. The longer Democrats completely control Commiefornia the more unlivable it becomes.
GFP: Nice place there in Commie-fornia. But I could never live there. We have some rich friends who live in Santa Barbara. You can see the Pacific from their living room. Zillow says it's worth about $6 Million. They also have a house in Tahoe. Their main house in SB is spectacular. But it would not surprise me if they eventually sell both California places when they retire and moved to a more tax friendly (red) state.
gfp: For now it looks like the Magnificent 7 have peaked and will return to earth. NVDA is actually in a bear market now, down over 20% from its peak. Tesla is faltering. The markets were expecting 6 rate cuts. They may not get a single one. Inflation is coming back, led by oil prices. And since Dementia Joe sold off our Strategic Oil Reserve to help with the mid term elections in 2022 we have no cushion to combat geopolitical displacement of oil production. Under the wrong Middle East outcome we could see oil surpass the previous highs near $150 a barrel.
With gold I see it as a reserve of purchasing power. Its apparent rise is really just the Dollar getting weaker. The DXY is not an accurate measure as it is the Dollar being compared to other currencies that are themselves being debased.
As the Treasury rolls over all our short term debt that was sold at ZIRP levels and now must pay out over 4% the Interest on our debt is going to balloon from $1 Trillion to about $1.5 Trillion per year. The treasury can't afford to pay it, so they will adopt Japan style Yield Curve Control mechanism to kick the can a few more years down the road. That's monetization, and the Dollar's value will plummet accordingly. So the current level of inflation might soon be viewed in hindsight as "the good old days". All fiat currencies eventually go to zero. Gold retains value.
gfp: The way I view one's primary residence is as a cost deferral vehicle. What I mean is that if you own your home or condo outright you free yourself from the burden of mortgage or rent payments, allowing your income to stretch farther. But for this scenario to work at its best that residence needs to be in a favorable location....and area where law enforcement is promoted and not handicapped by misguided liberal notions, where the taxpayer is factored into spending decisions by government thereby keeping real estate taxes low to moderate. In some high tax locations owning a residence there is a net negative. Places like New Jersey, Connecticut, Commiefornia, etc. I feel very good about our situation. Small acreage should I feel compelled to do more food production. Conservative county with ultra low taxes and where law enforcement is prioritized. Good neighbors with weapons they have grown up using since childhood. Close enough to necessities but outside any city limit with no public transportation options to get here. Our little subdivision of only 4 houses is on a one way private road that we can close off by parking one vehicle at the only entrance that would have drainage ditches on either side. M wife and I actually own the smallest house (3,000 sq ft) on he smallest lot (3.04 acres). Across our private road the owners are selling their 20 acre with about a 4500 sq ft mini mansion for about $1.5 million. The neighbors on the other side are finishing new construction of a 3800 sq ft house on a lot over 5 acres, and the neighbors at the end of the private road have about a 4,000 sq ft house with pool on at least 10 acres. They have horses and a barn to keep them in. That's it. Semi rural. This is our last stand. We will meet the nation's collapse on our own ground.
gfp: Insiders are privy to more information than the average investor. And if they are selling 50:1 over buying there must be a lot of Insiders who see real trouble on the horizon. At one point Wall Street was predicting 6 interest rate cuts. Then it was 3 cuts. Now it looks doubtful that there will be any cuts. And I've read article suggesting the Fed will be forced into a Japan style Yield Curve Control to keep what the Treasury has to pay in interest on our unpayable debt from eating up 50% or more of the budget. Interest is already the largest line item in the Budget, and with the Treasury having to roll over Trillions at higher rates the interest expense will approach %1.6 Trillion by the end of the year. That's 1/3 of tax receipts. And that's only the carrying cost of all our debt.
gfp: Listen to this weeks McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Insider selling is 50:1 over Insider buying. That's not a good sign for equities going forward.:
https://mcalvany.com/executive-insiders-unloading-their-own-stocks/
gfp: The underlying fundamentals of the economy are horrific. The only thing holding up the whole house of cards is that the Federal government is still able to pull future revenues into present era spending. The Federal government will spend about $3 Trillion this fiscal year ABOVE what they take in in taxes. Lots of those Dollars find their way to Wall Street one way or another. Hence we have a speculative bubble in almost all asset classes. At some point....next week, next month, next year....the debt bomb is going to explode and take our way of life down with it.
Ed Dowd is one of the elite number crunchers in the world. His analysis of the mortality and morbidity caused by the Codid vaccines is unparalleled:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lies-are-just-unreal-ed-dowd-rages-govts-media-continue-pretending-massive-health-crisis
gfp; This should be an interesting week in the markets.
gfp: Just keep good positions in Energy and Precious metals for your stock allocation. Maybe a few good dividend payers. And short term Treasuries. I'm holding tight to my metals, my miners, and my energy plays. I want real stuff. The days of fiat are numbered.
gfp: Rinear thinks the big rise and abrupt fall on Friday were due to short term traders worried about the geopolitical events, especially between Iran and Israel. I expect a slow and steady climb from here, with back filling. If gold and silver are rallying with the DXY strong and the 10 year above 4.5% then the paradigm has changed. Inflation and geopolitical worries are driving the PM markets now. Central bank stockpiling puts a floor under the metals. At some point Comex will not be able to provide delivery for futures buyers who want deliver of the metal and not a roll over to more contracts. When that happens the incredible level of leverage in the metals will become apparent. It could get ugly for the money center banks that hold big naked short positions (probably at the behest of The Fed.)
gfp: Things appear slightly different this time. Gold and silver are rising even with interest rates climbing and the Dollar being relatively "strong". Some analysts attribute it to continued stockpiling by countries and Central Banks. All fiat currencies eventually fall to their intrinsic value....zero. Gold retains purchasing power over time. I know that there will be a monkey hammer take down of gold and silver at some point. But I think that will only create another buying opportunity. We are in a "Fourth Turning". Anything can happen. A crisis is brewing. Probably several different crises all at once. It's good to have gold and silver. And dividend paying energy plays. If wars break out energy prices will skyrocket.
Bye the way Rinear thinks the move in gold and silver is due to underlying problems below the surface in the bond markets. Well we are already in a Minsky Moment. Interest on the debt balloons to over $1.5 Trillion a year by year's end, becoming the highest line item in the Federal budget. And that's at current interest rates. If rates rise all bets are off. And yet we add about $3 Trillion a year to the debt making things worse.
gfp: When countries are as financially mismanaged as badly as the USA and Western Europe they leaders ill always look to widespread world wars to get into so as to focus the blame for their ineptitude and corruption elsewhere...on the "enemy". I just don't think they will be able to pull it off for two reasons. The collective "west" is broke. Insolvent. Any war would have to be financed with printed money. That's inflationary. The people are already suffering from inflation. If it doubles, triples or goes to hyperinflation then revolutions happen. Secondly there are not going to be enough willing participants to become cannon fodder for the bankers and political elites. A conscription Draft in the USA or Western Europe would fail miserably. The Deep State would have to nuke a city in America on the east coast to drum up enough hatred to get people invested in another useless war.
gfp: I see the morning numbers on gold and silver. I'm cautiously optimistic. The 10 interest rate is dropping a little. We have inflation numbers tomorrow. I'm encouraged. But so far the miners are moving up but much slower than what they have done in the past when the spot prices of the metals are rising fairly rapidly. I'd like to see a bigger upward move on the miners. I'd like to diversify a bit more with an eye toward dividend yields now that I'm planning to mostly retire at the end of the year.
My knee aspiration culture came back negative. I'm cleared to return to work. I plan to work until mid June. My surgery date is set at Wednesday June 19th. I'm taking another 2 month leave to recover from that. Revisions to a total knee are more difficult to recover from. They have to cut away more bone and use larger hardware that is set in deeper into my long bones. I had an easy time recovering from the first TKA. This time around it's going to be a lot tougher.
gfp: I have a small position in UEC. I wish I had bought more. It's done really well. My biggest individual uranium stock is Cameco (CCJ). I have my eye on Denison Mines (DNN) but don't own any yet. And I have some URA. I'm getting influenced by BAR. I like good dividend plays now, especially in IRAs. You can't beat URA yield while you wait for capital gains. I view it as a core hold investment. I also own RIO for it's copper exposure primarily. The yield isn't bad either. I bought it in late 2021, saw it surge higher, then plummet below my buy in. But I held on. I'm currently green on the stock but I view it as a long term hold due to my hard asset focus. Electronics need copper. I have some COPX also for easy diversity in the copper space.
gfp: Like most of the apparatchiks of the Biden/Obama regime Blinken is pretty much an idiot.