Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Funny, I'm in Auburn Nebraska enjoying a bottle of first growth Bordeaux, having a good chuckle about an unemployed broker in Canada...
It is all standard disclosure... have you not read a perspectus before?
The author is a one man research shop that seems to only back certain investment ideas (SCY) When I spoke with him personally, his knowledge (IMO) was actually pretty thin on individual companies, but really liked the scandium story.
SCY owns 80 percent of a 200 NPV project, so 160 million in value. Current market cap is 90 mil CAD, and they still need to raise 80 percent of 90 ish mil for Capex. So even if it could raise here at 36 cents, its market would be approx equal to NPV... before ground breaks? IMO, must trade down. 23 cents? Why is this wrong?
I hear that after reading this board, even Chuck Norris checks under his bed at night, to see if Lind is there...
Haven't had my first cup of coffee yet.. Feasibility
NR clearly shows that they are working beyond the Fesability Study. They wouldn't be doing that if the FS didn't work.
Good point! If they were going to whiff, he wouldn't do this.
A synthetic put is a mathematical derisking which adjusts the hedge ratio in proportion. Common in convert management. If there is good news they will be forced to cover.
Hardly Crow... just too tired of this to reply.. typlical hedge ratio for a synthetic put on their position would be 25 percent... he also assumes all is taken down and unhedged.
I have shares in both Cleanteq and Niocorp. It is my understanding that Cleanteq's Scandium is litterally located apart from its Nickel and Cobalt. They are being considered as two separate projects. Currently, Cleanteq is working very hard for a water contract with its new Chinese partner, and the immediate need for Cobalt. IMO they have a lot of irons in the fire and Scandium is still there, but is of a lower priority. They do want to block Scandium International though, so they can be the primary Australian supplier and eventually buy their "neighbor" on the cheap. Robert Friesland has some good contacts!
This does leave Niocorp wide open to produce and develope Scandium along with its other products.
No, could be anybody. Don't forget there was recently buyers of 5M dollars worth with that offering. Everybody seeems to forget that. I think that buy swamps any selling in the market by size... seller could be anybody, anybody claiming they would know is just hot air.
But also placing the burden of proof on the negative is illogical. One cannot prove that it is not Aliens shorting the stock... the burden of proof rests on LCP.
IMO, I was an institutional PM for 25 years, and they prob won't come in with size until they see the FS. I have found that execution is the most important factor in these types for stories, and today they showed then can. The rest is just letting management do their job, that's why we hired them.
I think the Scandium results show they understand the importance of getting the numbers right and as good as possible. Worth the wait. Re the FS, I agree getting the number as best as possible is more important then the relatively small delay.
If you are a CEO of a company that goes bankrupt, or when the stock price plunges like that, you are certain to be sued. Thats how the US works...
Yes, there was a great rare earth bubble and companies like Neo Material etc fell by 90+ percent and Molycorp went broke. After all bubble like the tech bust and home bust, there are tons of Coulda woulda and shoulda calls. Especially if you are selling something new. Jack is a board member of other "new" rare earth companies, and I believe also paid by investorintel… and…
and oh by the way… above the 20 day moving average, that is rising and above the 50 day moving average.. not quite a golden cross, but despite all the "hang dog comments", it's looking better.
Why am I invested in this company.
1. I am a former institutional investor, and remember having lunch one day in Bejing with Robert Friedland. He is a smart fellow, but also too much of a showman, MS is more technical and I prefer his style. They both run the only viable scandium projects out there, and RF will do a great job of introducing Scandium to institutions along with Mark. Their success will help Niocorp succeed as well.
2. The recent purchase of 16.5 percent of Cleanteq by a Chinese conglomerate does several positive things. It gives some proof of concept to a scandium project that is paired with other products. Cobalt for Cleanteq and Niobium for Niocorp.
3. With the newly announced investment in Cleanteq by a Chinese conglomerate, they will most likely lock up the scandium and cobalt produced for Chinese benefit. They will also help to develop even more uses.
4. This really just leaves Niocorp, large investors and the US government knows this.
5. Trying to predict prices of Scandium is a fools game. One could make assumptions, but the variability of demand going forward (the timing of the uptake) will be bumpy. Ordinarily this would mean financing would have to have a larger equity componant, but Niobium pricing is extraordinarily stable and the German government can provide a certain level of debt financing which can be subordinated thereby lowering the overall cost of capital.
6. There are other positives, there are other uncertainties. On balance for me, these positives announced make the project worthy of investment. Size to your risk tolerance and hold for the longterm.
No prob, I usually don't post anything, but these points should be made.
And I believe concerns about scandium pricing is constant for all the projects, If Scandium is adopted it will be extremely valuable. I doubt anybody can get a meaningful off take, that just comes with the territory. Cleanteq and Niocorp seem to be the only realistic players. Poor George at SCY can't seem to raise money or make a valuable pitch. Cleanteq is slated to produce 40 tons with cobalt as the mineral paying the bills to get it up and going. Niocorp has Niobium and Titanium. Of course there are uncertainties, but these two IMO are the only ones with short term viability. If Scandium is picked up, demand from Aviation is IDK 500 tons a year, and Automobile industry is 2400 tons? Who knows how demand, if taken up, will meet supply. I think its worth a shot for the producers.
I too am disappointed with delay, but delay does not always mean bad news. I am an investor in Niocorp, Cleanteq, and others. I have 25 years experience investing in all global markets and ran 18 billion for one of the best performing international mutual funds for the decade of the 1990's. Ran the number one Canadian fund for the year 1998.
To use the punchline from an old joke, there is a pony in here somewhere. The eventual markets are huge. If it works, it will be worth more than what assumptions are in the PEA of both companies, and frankly demand will not be satisfied by both companies. There is no real investment difference between $1500 or $3200 per kg, the key will be to get users to adopt. In this way, one companies success will lead to sales by the others. It is a coin flip with a very uneven payoff; heads and you many lose your nickel, but if it is tails, you'll get 20 times your nickel. Take those all day long.
Deutsch…und ich auch habe ein wenige Aktien von Largo Resources.. Hoffentlich diese kommt beide herein. (sorry for the poor grammer)
Rohrs is where the abandoned gas station is on the south side of the road to Auburn, when you turn towards Hickery Grove Church. Between Elk Creek and Auburn. I'm related to any Gerdes, Bohling, Rogge, Oestman, Alden, or Teten in the Nemaha or Johnson County.
TO Double D, my family is originally from Rohrs (now defunked). Do you live around there?
Those who can make money, invest. Those who can't, write news letters…
I believe Kaiser is a shareholder in Scandium International… I think they need to raise money to pay off debt. I can't believe his report is legal. Everytime I was on CNBC, I had to disclose if I owned a security if I commented on it… But actually he doesn't directly comment about Scandium International. Just does not want competition...
OK… Mr Smith is CEO of two companies. If you paid attention to what happened last week, Largo raised a very large amount of money (in fact raised the raise from $50 m to over 70 m), that shores up its balance sheet. If Vanadium returns to over 5 dollars, Largo should CF 100 million per year. On the other side, Niocorp has a big project with a big a positive NPV. This is just speculation… but I'm just saying. I think they really don't need to color the PEA very favorably, if they brought the two companies together, they would not really need to have mush of an equity raise to build the mine at Elk Creek.
The project has a large and positive net present value. For smaller junior mining companies one might want to have a higher IRR, so that the project was a no brainer and even a small inexperienced group could get the development money. A successful mining company is more that just a super high IRR, Elk creeks is high enough. Elk Creek is a big project. It's a big project bringing a major deposit of Niobium into production.
I can find plenty of smaller projects out there that boast higher IRR's with smaller cap ex and still can't get off the ground (Scandium International comes to mind and Cradle come to mind), because nobody can trust the management to actually get the job done. Other important areas are financing and marketing.
Niocorp has simultainiously executed an off take agreement. Secondly, has opened the possibility of German government debt financing. Has anybody mentioned that given the stability of Niobium pricing, more of this project could be financed with debt boosting the investment IRR to equity investors.
Lastly, perhaps this could be merged with another company that had free cash flow, and no further major equity raise would be necessary. It would add diversification, a positive NPV, and a return equal to at least the IRR… assuming no price increase in Niobium over the life of the mine. Come to think of it, it big enough to stand alone too.
By "This guy" I mean John… sorry early morning for me.
I don't understand why people listen to this guy… he's fallen in love, and is a shareholder of Scandium International, yet Clean Teq has far outperformed it in the last six months. He never really liked Niocorp, especially when it went up.. Now that it has Scandium, I think he views it as some type of rival to Scandium International. When you talk to the guy, in my opinion, he just has certain stocks he wants to push regardless… Bottom line, I think he loves stocks that are cheap, and remain cheap because they don't go up. Has he picked a winner in the past three years? I don't know, curious what others have experienced?
Yes… sorry was typing while listening… for me, thats tough.
Covered conservative nature of Capex, NPV, and IRR. Most projects go over budget and we, feel it is important not to disappoint and took an extremely conservative first take. Remember 184 was contingency and 82 million was owners costs. 160 was infrastructure, 357 processing facilities, and 136 for the mine.
Using three different valuations, our stock is undervalued by all three. Using a percentage of NPV, it should have a market cap of between 182 and 240 million USD. Using a comparison to Niobec, it should be worth 240 and 320 million USD. Using a projected cash flow method after checking with three investment banks, 1.25 billion to 1.96 billion USD.
Mark then pointed out he leaves it to us to pick a method, but as of the close of Friday the current market cap stood at 124.7
He also strongly reiterated that he is still the largest share holder, and feels comfortable with this project. Final PEA trying for mid May..
Fair value rule of thumb for regular mines is 35% of PEA for this stage. Works out to be 363 million CAD, divided by 187 million fully diluted.. means stock should trade around 2 dollars canadian. At least...
Yes.. Thank you for informing us, I was just trying to find out if I could confirm. It is a very small place and I am related to most of the people. 1854 refers to when the oldest branch started farming near Rohrs.
I have checked with two brokers and the largest land owner in Johnson County… they know of no sale like that. Doesn't mean it didn't happen… but I can not confirm.
Salt Creek Tiger Beetle is only in northern Lancaster County, 90 miles away… in salt marshes. AND, aquifer issues are not a problem, Ogallala Aquifer just barely begins a hundred miles away. Myself and other farmers have many irrigation wells, and the population is falling around there so there is not a competition between cities and farmers for water. water is NOT a problem.
The new fellow in Legal and the promotion of new CFO.. they wouldn't have taken the new jobs if the PEA was going to disappoint. This takes out negative tail risk.
Thanks… I guess its backed by some guy in Minot. Seems to promise a lot on their website, and the only reason why they would have chosen Beatrice is because of Elk Creek. Just don't know if their technology really will work, I don't think they really know either. I think they want to go through tailings to capture other rare earths that can't economically collected through regular means, so they would feed off the scrap from Niocorp. I just don't know anybody on their board or management, or any of their investors.
Does anybody know anything about the Rare Earth Salts co in Beatrice? Local people backing them?