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If you can’t see the incredibly obvious faults in your logic, I know it’s not worth a discussion because you’ve already decided what you’re going to believe.
I’d rather go with every other independent analysis done and go by every metric used to analyze healthcare systems.
You can stick with that irrelevant statistic if you want, shows no bias on your part whatsoever.
Doesn't seem the consensus of the people living there
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=155129098
Of course, they have better medical system than US, then again almost everyone does, so that has helped. They also convinced the population to take it seriously. I THINK USA might be close to that now, you still hear some attitudes that it is not that bad but the vast majority are doing social distancing and understand what needs to be done.
It's not that social distances is not going on there, it is just the population, as a whole, embraced it without need to shut schools and restaurants.
Sweden is our next step, and we are in a better spot now so we should have similar success going forward. We would NOT have had as much success early on, too many people would not have listened in USA. We can learn a lot from what they have done and done very well.
Maybe that is starting to happen:
“There are no more than half a million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 20,000 deaths. These are tragic numbers,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference at the organizations headquarters in Geneva. “But remember that more than 100,000 have recovered. We must fight, unite and ignite. We are one humanity with one common enemy.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/who-officials-enroll-first-patients-from-norway-and-spain-in-historic-coronavirus-drug-trial.html
Looking at the short term chart, I am beginning to wonder if there is some pile in before the court gives the answer and when positive for Amarin, there is a sell the news event. I'm hoping we get a bump of a few dollars out of this but maybe past history has me thinking the worst.
I guess not THE worst as I truly believe losing the case is a very small change but if market believes that also will the stock move much on the news? Has this stock has turned me that sour?
I will say when the ruling comes down, to me, all real risk is gone, assuming Coronavirus is not with us this time next year I think you can mortgage everything and go all in on Amarin. Cash flow by itself will be more than the current market cap by time generics could come in. So as long as ruling is positive I guess I shouldn't care so much about immediate reaction but somehow I can't help myself.
Can't say enough about the doctors and nurses and everyone on the front line:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/inside-a-brooklyn-hospital-during-covid-19.html?
We will get to the other side of this and when we do every one of them deserves the highest praise and reward, and a very long vacation.
I can't believe she can't read a model, the model has different levels depending on what countries did to slow the spread. The model was correct, it has 20,000 if certain things were done, it had 500,000 if nothing was done to slow the virus. She can't say model was wrong if she then uses that same model to defend the 20,000 death number, it is the same model.
I understand many people read a headline but in her position she should probably read more than a headline number
That is the fear, nobody knows for sure but there are many reasons why that won't happen right away.
1) People will still practice social distancing
2) Procedures will be put in place to test people early
3) Warmer weather should make it Less easy to pass on
4) There is now some immunity in the country and it continues to grow
5) China has kept moderate restrictions and, so far, avoided that scenario
6) You could say the same for SARS, or Swine Flu but didn't work that way
7) Very possible the weakest (in terms of fighting this particular virus) are more easily infected and the first to get it. Thus finding a host that is going to not fight it off will be harder for the virus
8) Time before next wave for a vaccine to be developed
All that being said nobody knows for sure, China and Italy will be there first and can see from those countries some idea of what will happen
Post of the day! Everyone feels that way, AND ONE FINAL hurdle, which we will overcome and WIN AND THEN still have to wait out Corona! Our day will come, I think, I hope, come on Puh-Leeeeaaaassse!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's true to a point but NYC is running ahead of every other country/state trend line but even Texas had a huge jump in cases from yesterday and trend line is starting to match every other state.
So you can more conclude a NYC type situation is WORSE but every state IS BAD and the more spread out the less BAD it is.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/
South Dakota, Idaho and Oklahoma seem like more outliers
Seems like you can conclude the more compact areas should be on immediate and indefinite shutdown, as you get more rural all other places need to be at a minimum on work from home if possible, close gathering spots etc...
Which is what they are all doing, even Texas.
Now we'll just need to see if social distancing actually works because nobody in any country has done it long enough to get a definitive answer, where we know lock down works.
It's an interesting, though deadly social experiment. NH still is not under stay at home orders but Mass, Vermont and many New England states are but we closed Restaurants March 16.
If we had stay at home orders March 16 you would expect a peak around March 30 and by April 13 a solid trend down would be seen based on other countries, I am curious if this will happen without the stay at home orders.
At first people didn't take the social distancing serious enough, for a week or so they have. Since every other country has gone to more restrictive movement it is unclear if the social distancing would have had the same effect if they waited, since people started to take it seriously. Seems like a dangerous way to go when we know the more restrictive for 30 days works. It's interesting to follow as a site like below lets you see alot of needed info on a daily basis: Like number of people being monitored has dropped as the number of being tested increases daily (faster turnaround? or more false cases?)
West Virginia acted way ahead of most states, interesting to see how their cases go.
https://infogram.com/covid-data-1hzj4om03xo76pw?live
Also good news in terms of home testing but issue is getting results fast enough
https://deohs.washington.edu/hsm-blog/new-study-clears-path-self-sampling-covid-19
An edit to this post the site below is excellent for daily data on all states
https://covidtracking.com/data/
Makes sense, everything started earlier there, with the additional stay at home order tend line should continue. Next question is when NYC starts to see a better flattening of the curve.
Shaking My Head
Has anyone confirmed Las Vegas court, and even Judge DU have continually been filing court docs and final rulings the past week? Realistically there is no reason we won't here by end of day Friday? She said final arguments on Feb 28 and I have 30 days to give ruling, if she is on-time we should hear Friday, knowing Amarin it'll be Monday or there will be some reason for a delay.
Would really like to trade around Amarin a bit because volatility is great but need this behind us to start using the trading money.
Having good success selling way out of the money puts on high volatility stocks on certain days. Good way tom pass the time at low risk.
The article is biased and makes no sense. 1 governor of 1 state is quoted using the data to say what COULD happen and then they take that report and extrapolate it to other states as if it is the reason for closing?. The nut job that wrote it basically says Democrats are behind it, behind shutting down Italy, UK, China shut down before this report was out, it is a ludicrous, absurd article. NOBODY is shutting down states based solely on these virus models. That article is pure political propaganda.
They are shutting down because our trend line, ON EVERY SINGLE STATE, of actual cases says we will be where China and Italy got to. This is not an over reaction, this is not some regular flu. I was more in that camp early on but facts are facts.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/
Until THE DECISION, the biggest thing that relates to Amarin is Corona Virus as it effects ability to sell, people getting their meds, prodcution of the drug etc.
As Ackman said
We believe that the federal government will soon initiate a total-US shutdown with a defined reopening date about 30 days later,” Ackman wrote. “If the federal government does not impose such a lockdown, we believe it is likely that effectively all fifty states will do so eventually, with the additional delay costing many thousands of more lives, and much greater economic destruction.”
He reiterated that today as he announce he is now going long and unwinding his hedge (before anyone states he's shorting the market).
That sums up what I am saying. The trend lines say all 50 states will eventually do this, so why wait and drag it out?
Quiet, you'll be inundated with people don't tell anyone where you are HA, like the New York people escaping to Florida or to the Hampton's or the Wealthy Spanish going to their country homes, only to bring the virus with them. A shut down still has grocery stores, and other essential businesses running. It's not 100% everybody stay inside.
I do believe China was less restrictive as you got further from the center, assuming true then we have evidence that, yes, that can work, especially since US is spread out like China.
I think the New York Mayor has been ahead of everyone on this and called for things a week or so before Governor allowed him to do them. I think when the virus hits you are are all of a sudden it doesn't seem so extreme to take a few weeks to get rid of it.
I am curious how NYC plays out. Getting drug study, getting respirators, it's been stay at home from Sunday. Can we increase the flattening of the curve with everything we now know. Will watch new cases there very closely.
Italy seems to be turning the corner slowly after 2 weeks and we know it should be about 2 more weeks, that will be a good test if the 30 day quarantine works as it did in China.
Why would they not get back to work?
The alternative is worse, you think Trump says go back to work people are going to just go back to normal?
They are already predicting 30% unemployment based on what we are doing currently.
The alternative is the economy is shut down for even longer, many states are already shut down, seems pointless to shut down 20% of the country, then 40%, them 60%, then 80%, then 100% we already know by the trends where it is going and 100% of states are on the same trend.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/bill-ackman-says-us-economy-will-come-roaring-back-from-coronavirus-pandemic-with-30-day-shutdown
I'm with you, but details of the French study are also questionable. I stated from before Trump we need to test this in everyone with more than mild symptoms but we can't be sitting around assuming this will be a cure and we just go on. Odds are It's not going to work like that.
True, the issue is we don't really know, even in this study 3 people were not "cured" in the time frame. We just can't count on a cure, we need to be proactive before the results. So many questions.
I don't really get all the debate, the facts are pretty obvious.
We knew 2 weeks ago(and probably even before that) the only things that work would be to have a 30 day shutdown or do what South Korea did. Since we did not have preparation like South Korea we had 1 option, the Fed government has STILL not enacted the only option that is factually proven to work. Complete failure at that level. It's not a question, the facts showed that was our level of knowledge.
We can't rely on a cure
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study
So 2 small studies, and 2 different outcomes, yes this has as many issues as the French one, why did Placebo group recover so quickly etc...But we know for a FACT the drug cocktail will not prevent people from getting the virus but may limit the time they have it.
More facts: 10-20 times more people will die from this compared to the regular flu if we did not act. Even the most positive analysis can only get this down to 3 times more deadly than the flu. The 1 controlled experiment on the cruise ship, adjustment for age, came out with .5 vs .1 for the flu. So the current facts in the 1 controlled environment says it is 5 times more deadly. Also fact it is has a R0 almost twice that of the regular flu, so now you need to double the 5 times as many deaths to 10 times, oh, but wait, the incubation period is almost twice as long so now we are at 20 times the number of deaths than the regular flu.
Fact: Up to 20% of people hospitalized with coronavirus in the United States are young adults between ages 20 to 44, a new federal study shows. Thus the plan to put young people back to work will still overburden the medical community
Fact: Presidents get bumps in approval ratings during crisis, Trumps has gone from 42-44 on overall approval and around 50-55% approval of handling of Virus, based on multiple polls and adjusting for poll bias, this is compared to Bush who went from 60% approval to almost 90% after September 11 and his big decision was a war based on non-existent weapons of mass destruction. Trumps ratings are poor relative to other Presidents during a crisis and it will be temporary like any other time, amazing how poor the favor-ability is in a crisis, might be unprecedented lack of improvement, why would supporters think these numbers are good is beyond me. Remember more than 50% of the people voted for Hillary Clinton, so Trump's numbers are meaningless at this point in time and the facts show he has not made the correct decisions so far, not a debatable item.
That's now how a controlled study works, they will run it longer to get more info, in addition not everyone in the study is enrolled on day 1. They can get some preliminary date in about a week but I would think at least 2 weeks before anything concrete but perhaps evidence leaks out ahead of time. Assuming it is blinded it would have to be obvious that some patients are recovering more quickly and thus a peak to see if its the drug group.
I guess he just said he hopes to have USA opened up by Easter, makes more sense, we need a couple extra weeks to flatten curve and get drug results.
Why can't anything with Amarin happen early? Still waiting for trial result, going to go right to 30 days...the one time we got an early action by FDA it was then delayed....
15 days ends March 31, they won't have trial results then.
I figured as much, thanks for the updates you have provided and the work you are doing.
Any anecdotal feedback on whether drug seems to be helping? I assume there was a period nobody got the drugs, and a period where they are now getting them, just wondering if doctors commenting on quicker recovery or to soon to even make and anecdotal statement?
I looked through your posts yesterday could not find that link to the article that mentions Australia had tested it.
I did find this link but not quite the same as the current combo
https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chloroquine-tested-as-coronavirus-treatment-2020-3
Thx but I’ve seen the French study, just looking for additional study that will back it up
OK thanks will look for the first interview
BY all means Pray away! Worst thing happens it has no effect, best thing happens and it does Good things!
Don't want to turn into a religious debate.
I'm more interested in finding some study, somewhere, that will confirm the French study. This would be crucial to bridging time until we can find something that will prevent it in the first place.
This time last week we did not have a drug combo that showed in any study 100% recovery in a week. Seems like resources are very high in finding out more, just be nice to see some follow up studies, even short, small, uncontrolled ones.
Conflicting evidence but several people state it as fact even in this article, I tend to lean that way but who know
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
Except the largest study ever done determined prayers don't work. Despite that I believe there is something behind positive thoughts, the placebo effect is real. How far can that go?
Studies have shown there is definitely a strong link between “positivity” and health.
It is possible it reduces inflammation and improves immune system. So while prayer has no proven scientific benefit positive thinking absolutely does and may help your immune system fight off a virus for all e know.
Which is why I prefer to say I am sending positive thought your way or positive energy. But if prayer makes you feel positivity then it too shall technically work for you so have had it! Do what you feel works for you.
I listened to FOX NEWS interview but did not see or hear the reference to "Out of 100 patients at his facility, they haven't lost a single patient" nor any reference to him using that with all patients, he commented on the French study, I believe saying 1 in 10,000 chance of that result there but we also know the French study was not blinded and controlled as most studies.
Do you have reference to the 100 patients using the cocktail of the 2 drugs from somewhere?
Trying to find some follow up to the French study with similar results, all I can find is studies ongoing. I know results were just released but still would have thought others would start releasing results just because it seems to work fast and well in the French study.
I read they already identified two strains of the virus, the first one was the original one in China and was more deadly, the one that went to the rest of the world is a less deadly strain but there was not much detail behind that information, like is it possible part of Italy started with the more deadly strain or it mutated really early and they have the same one we have here? Don't know.
Of course It's also possible there is a third strain by now.
Italy is no different than any other place they just have an older population
The National Health Institute (ISS) said Friday that the average age of Italy first 3,200 victims was 78.5.
Almost 49 percent of them had three or more pre-existing conditions.
Just 1.2 percent of those who died had no other ailments.
Thanks, there is a good video highlighted on the main page "Will There Be Another 2008 Crisis?" Good interview.
Your dreaming of a world that will never exist. I believe it never did. News put together by old white men and delivered by old white men was really not editorialized back in the day?
I agree with your sentiment, would be nice if people wanted that and could editorialize themselves. Just not realistic so what's the point of complaining about it, changes nothing.
So true, I'm very positive person, I honestly try to find something to like about everyone I meet. But there are those times I want to just say...
"OH, I'm Sorry you misunderstood, I wasn't asking you, I was telling You!"
But then I realize it is pointless, not going to change peoples minds on some things so live on, life is short and then it is over, got no time for negativity.
Nobody would watch that today, you don't have 3 TV stations with news, there are thousands, so there is a wide range of news which give smart people the chance to hear all sides and make an informed decision about things and on the other hand allows most people to reinforce there already pre-determined beliefs regardless of facts or science. The news is out 30 seconds after it happens now, so you want the thousands of news stations to repeat that news hours later? The world has moved on, it is not bad, it is not good it just is.
People believe stupid things because they want to or they refuse to educate themselves, that was the same 50 years ago and will be the same 50 years from now.
The whole blaming the news for things is really overdone. People need to take personal responsibility.