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Capt what kind of revenue do you estimate this represents?
I was always against a buy back, but the cost to benefit ratio is silly at 60 cents per share. A minimal amount of cash on hand could wipe out a ton of float.
Just looking for what their plan is here.
Questions I would love to ask Alex Denner:
1. You said AMRN was undervalued at $4 per share. Why aren't you buying millions more at a fraction of that price?
2. The company has approved a model buy back program, so why not take out ~10-20% of the entire float at these prices?
3. The company has lost the US market so why not release an Authorized Generic and take advantage of your inventory position vs. competition?
Not sure but shit is pretty bleak for a company with a safe approved drug, no debt, and $300 million in the bank. We are basically trading for cash right now. Depressing.
Also the trading range has been miniscule. Just no action at all.
I may join you in continuing to average down Chrome. I'm currently at 90k shares with a $2.58 average.
I have been against the buyback to conserve cash but damn at these levels the company could take a ton off the table.
Thanks Cap, these updates are awesome.
Makes sense Tasty, and the extension to 2039 for exclusivity sure helps the EU market potential. Also wondering when we might see some revenue out of China.
I'd really like them to launch a generic now, to really rattle the US market. I believe they could increase volume and push the smaller competitors out.
Appreciate the reply.
I'm getting a bit demoralized looking at the paltry volume and constant downward pressure on the stock price. Does anyone have an optimistic bull thesis for the future of AMRN that will make my weekend look a little brighter? Not asking for dreams or fantasy but just a realistic path back to a decent valuation.
Sometimes it feels like I'm crazy thinking we'll see $5 again.
I was convinced it was going to be sold for $40. I got greedy and paid the price.
That being said I still believe in the drug, and more recently Denner's $100 million investment, and have averaged down so any decent buyout will still pay out decently.
The 2039 EU exclusivity and ample cash balance provide more confidence that the share price will recover.
At least that's what I'm going with to sleep at night.
Sure Paddy, you keep posting through it pal.
This guy is so desperate for attention he gave a thumbs up to his own post 😆
The one reason I'm still here is because Denner has $100 million of his own money invested. I believe he has a plan to recoup his stake with profit. I would think it will come in the form of a buyout at some point. JMO.
So we are supposed to believe that Paddy is super drunk but is sober enough to create a new alias on IHUB, and remember Amarin's name and figure out it's trading symbol so he can tell us all we're about to be bought by Astra? Come on guys this is just another troll trying to get a reaction from desperate shareholders.
I mean I'm desperate too but let's not fall for every buffoon who wants to post fantasies on our board.
If this guy really did overhear it wouldn't he be buying as much stock as he possibly could?
Considering that this guy created his alias today to make this post I'm highly doubtful without a lot more details.
You're saying they were talking about Amarin being sold to a German company? That's certainly a random conversation to overhear in a Irish pub.
Do you have any concerns with AMRN remaining as a going concern, with regard to cash flow, exclusivity loss, etc...? I'm still trying to figure out if they will conserve cash given the PBM news or move forward with the buyback.
JRoon, I appreciate your level headed posts here. How do you see Denner's end game playing out, and over what time frame? Seeing both good and bad news and a really tight trading range for the stock on low volume over the past few months.
This volume does not look like the buy back is currently in motion.
I wonder if this will give the other generics pause about infringing though, as this Hikma case starts to lean in our favor now. The damages aren't trivial.
Doesn't seem like the volume we'd see during a buyback.
Not remotely, but I appreciate the effort.
You're never supposed to talk about it, like a no-hitter. Now you've doomed us all unless you change your avatar and name again.
It's a huge jinx Tasty, but just for you we need 14 more days like this to hit double digits.
Let's hope that Denner is ready to corner the frozen juice market now that we hit an all time low, and the Buy Back plan is in full go mode to screw the Dukes.
Man at these levels the company can sure take a lot of shares off the table. You wonder if they didn't mind the huge drop right before the BB was approved.
Wow I'm jealous. I'm still at $2.58
I hope it works out for you Tasty. What's the new average?
What did you do big dog? Bite off another chunk?
Not sure I'd use the cash that way with the recent PBM loss, but they could sure do some serious damage buying back $50 mil at these levels.
Third possibility is he was fired and allowed to resign to save face. I think this is fairly likely if timed with 25 percent loss of US market.
IMO with Denner holding 24 million shares and 300 mil cash in the bank I doubt it's a death knell.
If I had extra cash I'd average down, but then I'm an idiot.
There are some potential positives in the horizon, but the end play for Sarissa is still a buyout IMO.
I don't see a PR from Amarin on losing the PBM, but if it's true they should probably delay any buy backs.
These PBM deals have solidified the US market share around 57 percent, so perhaps losing this deal caused Holy to leave or be pushed out.
I too would like to see this be the catalyst to an authorized generic in the US.
Either way, hard to spin Holt leaving as anything other than a big negative. He was hardly here long enough to make an impact.
I'm a bit rattled by the news to be honest, and hope Denner and his BOD can scratch our way back to $4-5 eventually.
Need to see progress in EU/ROW for sure and 2039 exclusivity sure helps there.
I don't remember ever seeing a tighter daily trading range for this stock. It's bizarre seeing slight movement in fractional cents for weeks now. I don't know what it means but it's really weird.
The 2039 exclusivity was huge news and I don't think it was recognized enough by AMRN Longs. Adds big value to EU IMO
This is why it's critical to sell the drug to BP, so it can be marketed efficiently. I still think this is Denner's end game goal, and hopefully he can get $2B+
I would rather they continue to pour efforts into exclusive agreements with the insurance providers that have allowed them to control 57% of the US market when it should be a fraction of that after so many generics entered the fray.
Still thinking about the 2039 EU extension. IMO that is way more important than the various legal scenarios, but happy to see both on a more positive trajectory.
That seems like huge news for EU valuation.
It looks like the market liked the way the courts treated us today. If we could see 22 more days like this we'd be back to double figures, which would be amazing.