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Yep my bad! So much activity right now its hard to keep up.
Ridiculous article - the same players always sell their shares. They did this at $6 and $7 too.
The simplest explanation for why I'll hold this for a long, long time - even in at $5 cost basis:
How much does the O/S for a $1,500 laptop cost? It's about $150 US to get a new copy of Windows.
How much do you think an O/S for a $50,000 car (and more and less) is worth per car when it is really the only thing between a regular car, and autonomous? Safety safety safety security security security. Everyone is saying ooh ooh we can get to $10/car.
All - seriously? The system controlling the entire response of an autonomous vehicle will only cost the mfg $10 per car. Come on people.
This thing can be like MSFT or APPL for the NEXT GENERATION of DEVICES - cars, trains, planes, motorcycles...and did we forget about why having this type of tech IN THE MILITARY makes ridiculous sense? So that extends to tanks, fighter jets, etc...
Do you think that type of sensor data would be good in space? Completely autonomous space shuttles?
I'm telling you all...TIP OF THE ICEBERG.
Don't know for sure - they made a couple big share purchases last year too. The good news is they are an ETF - so any takeover concern is really minimized. If you look at the overall portfolio we're still small potatoes and well in balance for that fund overall. Lightweight even compared to their $$$ in the big guys.
Tell you what though - I think they make the move for a few reasons:
1. Access to capital getting easier in the industry - which means the right players will be making moves
2. Consolidation thought to explode this year in the industry - for an ETF, being bought or buying - win/win situation and we've already heard Valens say they'll be growing through strategic acquisition this year.
3. Growth details for Valens market share starting to come to light. It's just simple math on top of that. Everyone undervalues this one - they won't when they see the #'s. Q4 sb good, Q1 better, but Q2/Q3 they really need to step on the gas.
The next smallest ETFs all pale in comparison to this one in terms of overall assets, by the way.
I personally love it. If you look at Valens as a total % of their portfolio, it's still peanuts (few %, will see after they report their entire holdings again, last was Jan 6 before their big purchase recently). I think they are seeing the value as well.
Also love it because it WILL make other institutions take notice - which is obviously a good thing for us.
Lastly, love it because it's an ETF, it's not a private equity firm. This doesn't appear to be attached to any form of hostile takeover attempt.
All just my two cents - but think this move was just the beginning. The 3X increase in revenue on the OCS alone for Valens revenue from Q3 to Q4 has me pumped for earnings. Was hoping for a little better than 50% QoQ - but this new data has me wondering if maybe, maybe we can get a bigger surprise than that.
Retracing is not always bad! The 10-day chart at 5, 10, 15, 30, and 60 mins all look beautiful. This retrace still held our ascending triangle which may see us test $2.32 by Wednesday or sooner (it also may fail :)), it brought our RSI back to Earth, and it let the MACD momentum level out. We look set to run on Monday! :)
Happy for everyone here today. It's been a long and winding road.
Next resistances are at $1.91 from last August and at $2.32 from last June. Support in the $1.30 range.
Can we test the $1.91 threshold later today?
So today was unexpected! I think there are a couple of things happening...
1. Medipharm Labs news indicates significant growth for them (100% ish) on the revenue side - perhaps the market is starting to realize the labs/vlns business model is going to be a good thing
2. Perhaps some small buys coming out of last weeks investor conference?
3. Pre-meetings with investors in advance of ATB conference? I think the company really wanted this price up before they got in front of new institutional investors.
4. It'd become fairly easy to do a 2:1 reverse stock split if we get to the $2 range to uplist to NASDAQ
5. This week should be HUGE. What we will never know is the "wink wink nod nod" type conversation that happens behind closed doors. A company doesn't have to leak information to leak that they think things will be very good in quarterly releases to come, and can even have discussions about sales backlogs, etc...
This is why we're all here - this is fun!
Hey Nelson, can you shed a little light on pending litigation settlement?
I understand in the FB v BB case a settlement was expected for all company litigation by 1/15/21 (submitted to the courts).
What I'm trying to figure out - is there any surviving part of BB vs FB from the original 9 patents? All my research shows that 8 of the 9 were tossed, but I can't find anything on the 173 patent (neither declared invalid nor non-conflicting) - which is the one about tagging photos.
Is this the only one left in BB v FB, or is it gone?
Interesting open to the week. Big institutional conference this week. Hope Everett and Tyler brought their A game - this is where it could all begin. Love the pop prior to the event too so anyone wanting to get in this thing in a big way is coming in when we're up 60% off our lows from a couple months back.
This is the beginning, tons of hints on the Investor conference today guys - if their hints are legit this is going to be the stock of 2021 in the cannabis space.
LOL good - I like the confidence! I'm not going anywhere because I think we'll have a fantastic year - with all the sector movement I just can't help but think something may be on the horizon. Wonder if maybe nobody will be holding Valens stock in the near future...
Some interesting activity on the US side today - volume way up early - not the normal pattern we see in Valens.
Anyone else feel like you're teetering on the top of a fence and the sway is getting worse and worse? Like this thing will either flop of the edge that goes down a cliff, or flop off the edge that lands on the rocket. With no likelihood of continuing to teeter much longer? That's what this feels like...
Huge block of 180k went off in the US today which is certainly odd.
Either way, unless news hits and gets me back here, taking a break the rest of the year. Hope you all stay safe through the holidays and are able to have some form of celebration with your families, even if it is different than we're used to this year.
Here's to a better 2021, cheers!
https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/7805760/142/facebook-inc-v-blackberry-limited/
Very interesting - could mean just about anything!
Median PS Ratio for CPGs is 3. A PS Ratio of 3 for Valens makes us worth $1.58. We are trading like a CPG. If that holds true through next year we'll be at $2.45 assuming we prove the $140M run rate from their very dated investor deck. As they grow this number goes up. As they announce deals that increase the revenue number, share price goes up.
Not out of the question with some really big name deals or crazy growth numbers and market domination that after another quarter or two the multiple could become 4 or 5 but think that's pushing it. Would need sustained high double-digit QoQ growth with very transparent pipeline of sustained growth to maintain.
Would like this board's opinion on the BMW announcement too - I think everyone assumed its IVY, but when you read it I'm pretty sure BB has nothing to do with it. Remember on investor call they said IVY would be a BB deal on BB paper - not an AWS deal announced by AWS. Pretty sure the BMW announcement has nothing to do with BB - though I wouldn't be shocked to see BMW be the first to announce IVY integration given they are working on a huge data project.
Announcement came out yesterday....have an integration to secure Android Enterprise. As is the story on most of their announcements - we have no idea what any of these things mean for revenue, so we need to start seeing them beat QoQ and get to some good double digit growth.
aaand the chart broke out of its trend, so could be interesting few days
Huge sector news with the FireEye breach - this is going to make all of our certifications worth their weight in gold. We've all been saying "what are all these stupid things worth" and now - the answer is everything.
I write this coming out of a financial technology sector that was hammered a few years ago with huge retailer breaches. Deal conversations in that industry went from "cheaper and faster" to "as secure as possible, followed by cheaper and faster".
Every cybersecurity RFP from this point forward will include significant due diligence around the certifications these platforms have. And don't think for a second we won't see some lift and updtick in sales from scared FireEye customers fleeing the coup.
22,000 kgs was announced in their documentation early in November, so we should see a number well over 22k kgs
Really starting to get frustrated with the fact they don't keep tabs enough on their analysts to get good numbers revised every month. Their revenue targets remain the same even with the approval of K2 - so they're either awful at the PR/IR half portion of the job, or we're all in for a nasty surprise we didn't see coming. Hoping for the former.
Friday or sooner...if we don't break through 1.58 by EOD Friday or first thing Monday, we are heading back down. Strength and triangle have me believe we move up. Been wrong before but this one has been on chart for almost 6 weeks
Now we start watching margins closely through this growth. It should start expanding as revenue throttles up...
100% agree, I check their presentation first thing every morning for December's version - I unfortunately guesstimate they won't show a material change.
Just found someone who did an awesome quick technical analysis on Valens late last week - he gives you WAY MORE DETAIL than my posting of what looks like a hopeful Friday test of our resistance - that's when the triangle is make or break. He also mentioned a potential reverse head and shoulders which would be fantastic.
So I know you can't do this with any accuracy, but I like numbers so whatever!
In Q3 we launched a record 56 SKUs, an increase of 20 SKUs over Q2. This resulted in an increase in white-label/product sales of $5.2M to $15.1M from $9.9M. So with stupid math but I like to make up my own metrics, each SKU they added contributed to an additional $260k in revenue. We've now seen "85+ SKUs produced in the 4th quarter" in a bunch of materials - so let's round and say they increased by 30 SKUs QoQ. Using that same $260k number (stupid as it may be) X 30 new SKUs = $7.8M in growth...that could put white-label/product revenue at $22.9M in Q4. If we then assume flat extration revenue of ~$3M, we should be right at that $26M range in revenue for Q4. That would include ZERO increase in reorders on their products. $26M would mean we beat yearly revenue targets from the analysts and clock in around $94M. We'd be at an annualized run rate of $104M, so an analyst target currently at $140M in 2021 revenue implies only 35% growth next year - if my above assumptions are true we're clocking 50% growth QoQ right now.
That $140M number is going to be much higher when analysts see the growth this Q and project future years of revenue. Then we zoom!
And I fully believe that extraction numbers will INCREASE and we'll see some solid reorder quantity volume on the original 56 SKUs from the prior quarter - we know the beverages are flying off the shelf. Add K2 capacity and who know what growth could mean Q4 to Q1! - in other words, the numbers above though very speculative and making horrible assumptions, feel like they should be conservative :)
It's really hard to answer. There is a ton of anonymous buying activity on the TSX and it's always near the highs of the day. It feels like someone is trying to prop up the price in a specific range for now but not let it run. BUT - there are very clear rules around blackout periods and we're definitely in that window with quarterly and annual earnings due, so it's a really hard question to answer.
I did speculate yes, until it continued beyond December 1st. Now I suspect something else is at play - perhaps someone looking to acquire the max % of shares before they have to declare it. This stock is insanely cheap right now (I'm posting a big long one in 30 seconds after this response) and we are in dangerous territory - if management is being engaged to sell and doesn't want to, a hostile takeover is not out of the question here. I'm not sure that's it, but someone is systematically acquiring shares right at our resistance point but not pushing it beyond. A hostile offer may be "good" for everyone here, but it wouldn't be what we were expecting in terms of growth. It's likely be an offer that's enough to get most to bite and get their money back or make some profit and lose the risk.
Totally agree! All the fundamental catalysts we know are coming, but LOVING the chart too!
With so many eyes on this, even with mediocre earnings I think it runs. Valuations in comparison to peers says we're undervalued pretty significantly, attention hopefully changes that.
Regardless of stock price movement, huge day for us all today. Passed 218 votes at around 11:50am CT. Don't think it means much for a Senate vote or pass - but it's a great leap forward.
Regardless of stock price movement, huge day for us all today. Passed 218 votes at around 11:50am CT. Don't think it means much for a Senate vote or pass - but it's a great leap forward.
Big vote coming up any minute!
100% agree - I'm going nowhere fast in this one!
Honestly - the Amazon thing came out of the blue and just strengthens my confidence that they'll be around, and they'll be significant, in a few years.
Very obvious ascending triangle forming on both VLNS and VLNCF, started near the end of October and has held its line so far. This would have us testing $1.55 again in a couple days just on technicals. News obviously changes everything and hopefully for the better.
Tyler back on Twitter with a new product release - bath bombs! He's been talking about these for months so hopefully that means a big CPG deal announced with the bath bomb release! They are obviously CBD, so that could be the CPG he was talking about on the investor call that could "give them access to the U.S"
Hope so! So many uses. Remember those Amazon Dash buttons? Imagine having them tied to everything digitally vs. a physical button - and now your washing machine/dryer send you a notice when you need to by detergent, your fridge knows when you need milk, and your furnace tells you to change the air filter. There are a million uses where these endpoints need to be secured and then managed by a data platform.
What about companies like WEX/Comdata using this for fleet management? Ambulances/fire trucks, snow plows, construction equipment, airplanes, boats, trains....
Employers securing their WFH endpoints and also collecting new usage points.
I think this is an endpoint data collection play, cars were just the sexy first announcement. My opinion anyway, and will take a long time for us to have this play out as we all want.