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I got the remainder filled yesterday....
Looks to me like the gap on the news induced spike has closed....now to wait and see.
GTBP - Coronavirus news some days back
Took a flyer on it today. News came out March 10th and there was a huge spike from in and around 10 cents to 25 cents+ on volume of 3 million. Since then its cooled off, the PPS is down around 16 cents and the volume is not even 100K.
Maybe it was a one day event, but based on the light volume pullback I'm thinking there's a fair chance for another spike: Here's the news:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gt-biopharma-cytovance-biologics-announce-123000774.html
I'm in, just a partial fill so far....
Looks to me like there's more upside, even if its simply speculative.
Looks like the Pearson lawsuit was dismissed, case closed
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/26805430/Vuzix_Corporation_v_Pearson
MEMORANDUM AND ORDER: re:23 MOTION to Dismiss for Lack of Jurisdiction filed by Ricardo Antonio Pearson. For the following reasons, the defendant's motion is granted. Having concluded that the Court does not have personal jurisdiction over defendant, the Court dismisses the plaintiff's amended complaint without prejudice pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 12(b)(2). The Clerk of Court is respectfully directed to close the case. This order resolves ECF Docket entry No. 23. (Signed by Judge Naomi Reice Buchwald on 11/06/2019)
There's more after that, it looks to me like Pearson objected to being referred to as Ricardo Antonio, but the judge simply stated that because the case was filed with that name, that she had to follow that nomenclature...a fancy word for name/label
There's no volume....
the only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that holders are squeezing tight....the only time volumes spike up over 100K+ seems to be in tandem with times of increased short selling. Even a few hundred thousand trading is anemic for a stock with over 200 million shares out, and today we've got just less than 10K trading so far as I type this....
Yesterday less than 50K traded across all Canadian trading platforms, both lit and dark pools. That would need to quadruple just to reach the anemic level...reasonable volume imo would be up around 2 million p/day.
I don't doubt we'll see volumes in the millions once results come out....and a massive move for the PPS, either up or down depending on success or failure.
Just using AMRN as a guide.....
I don't expect RVX to trade in lock step with the way AMRN did at this time last year ahead of their Sept 24/2018 release of trial results....but at the same time I think its worth while to look at how AMRN traded as a benchmark...
This time last year AMRN was trading for about $2.90....and by Aug 15/16/17 it had moved up in and around the $3 area. By August 24 though it had fallen all the way back to $2.70....that's when a decent rally started, when Sept rolled around it was up around $3.30...but even that rally didn't last, by Sept 18th the PPS had fallen all the way back down to $2.65 again....using 20/20 hindsight that was the last big buying opportunity dip.
Based on how AMRN traded I'm thinking its reasonable to expect the same kind of volatility with RVX...not a carbon copy, but something along those lines.
The 531K short figure....
That's for trades settled up to July 31st 2019...Aug 7th is the date they were published. Other than that I think your bang on the money about people not selling their shares...it looks to me like shareholders are squeezing tight in anticipation of BETonMACE results.
As for those who are short...I think its possible that they may have purchased share purchase warrants as a form of insurance. There are two classes that are trading, RVX.WT with a conversion price of $2.05 and RVX.WT.A convertible at $4.60
Nice to finally be over a dime....
Some consolidation in and around this level should be expected imo....and then to 20+ cents.
They trimmed losses a bit....
Looks like they cut back on R&D and sales expenses...which got losses under $6 million. But revenue is still anemic, which means they're going to need to improve their products and ramp up sales imo....which only serves to cement my opinion that the biz isn't viable and that the only way to keep the gravy train rolling with annual trips to Vegas and Europe is to keep printing more shares.
Drawing on the AMRN comparison....
Just checking the AMRN to see where it was trading last year at this time...disappointed to see RVX's PPS struggling the way it has been, and the struggles of latter July can't be blamed on short selling, it went down a little.
Amarin is a good comparible in my opinion...and it was struggling a month and a bit ahead of REDUCE IT results like RVX is struggling now:
I view those videos as being the kiss of death...
Maybe not right away, but within two or three...he has a big following, and those videos do shine a light on obscure little speculative companies like Vuzix.
Oh sure, mention it after its been pumped 500%
Then again this is the Vuzix board, where PT Barnum came to realize the type of investors being born every minute.
Another dud.....
Amazon was Jan 2018 news, and it did pump it up to $11+....the market got fooled once, not again. Earnings for the 2nd qtr due around August 8th, I bet they lose another $6 million for the qtr....in fact $7 or $8 million in losses wouldn't shock me, didn't everyone get raises for losing $24+ million in 2018?
With trading volumes this low....
It looks to me like we're back to short selling being able to push the PPS around like a puck on an air-hockey table. Six days in a row now without even 100K trading across all Canadian platforms on a single day....and even less for RVXCF of course.
637K was the updated short number for trades settled up to June 30th, which is basically nothing against a little over 200 million outstanding, it comes out to 0.23%. But over the the two weeks leading up to that June 30th dates short interest increased by a little over 100K and that has to have an impact.
With no news to encourage buying and the company's weak financial state I won't be surprised if we see more short selling used to depress the PPS further. Ultimately if BETonMACE hits a home run I don't think it will matter one iota, however some might bail out of fear that a falling share price brings.
And check out how many they got for $0.00
The company doesn't make any money, so their salaries are being paid by shareholders....seeing them spend $100 or $200K of their lofty compensation on shares would surely give the PPS a boost....but it wouldn't last if the actual results continue as they have the past 3 or 4 years with losses climbing higher and higher.
A couple years back there was a deal....
Wounded Warrior Program, not the well known Wounded Warrior Project....here's the news: https://ir.vuzix.com/press-releases/detail/1576/american-veterans-with-low-vision-and
That news led to a widely read and commented on Seeking Alpha piece that called it a "Mega Deal" and projected revenues of up to $180 million. It was touted for a few months then pretty much faded to black.
I think this Sword deal is a rinse/repeat....
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4099399-vuzix-just-announce-mega-deal
I think Sword is the new Wounded Warrior....
Remember the Wounded Warrior "Mega Deal"?
I think it could be a replay of Dec 2017's raise.....
If you recall in December 2017 they raised something like 12.5 million...the pps dipped for a time before the pump resumed taking the PPS to 11+ for another raise of 30 million.
I don't think 20 million would even last a year, and I suspect their burn is going up....but to do another raise they either have to get the PPS up over $5 or wait 90 days. My suspicion is that they'd be best served to dilute before reporting 2nd qtr results.
Oh well, maybe they're losing more than $2 million p/mth
I figured dilution was coming, but I thought it would come later...after the PPS got pumped back over $5 or maybe $6....
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17560312-vuzix-announces-20-million-registered-direct-offering
Based on 2018 results and the loss of about $24 million, that equates to $2 million p/mth. Up to March 31st they had ~$10 million left....if they'd been maintaining that burn rate at ~$2 million p/mth I figured they'd still have enough cash to last through July and into August....
I think its possible they're losing more money so far in 2019 than last year though. $20 million less fees isn't a lot of money though, might be another pump to cash up some more I think.
Thanks, I'm always learning....
I'd never come across a closing imbalance before, I didn't even know volume hit up around 2.8 million....last I checked it was something like 690K, which I noted was a bit above average but not a lot.
I found this info on imbalances on investopedia:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/order-imbalance.asp
And here's a snippet that might apply:
"As each trading day draws to a close, order imbalances can arise as investors race to lock in shares near the closing price. This can especially come into play if the stock price is seen at a discount on that particular trading day".
I've heard of MOC orders, short for Market on Close. Honestly I don't know where this 1.75 million fits in? Was it sellers or buyers?
Given Vuzix's incredibly weak cash position as evidenced by their last quarterly filing showing just $10 million (close to that) remaining as of March 31st....if there is going to be manipulation pushing the PPS around I expect it to be to the upside.
Perhaps this 1.75 million has something to do with Vuzix still being on the SHO list for delivery failures?
Not sure what you mean by 'imbalance'???
Today was the last day of trading for the month and quarter...I think next week will provide a better indication of where VUZI is heading at least in the near term.
As for the new patent application, it looks to me like they're already planning to replace the Blades with something better. Based on results so far and the lack of news with any signficant volumes for the Blade it looks to me like another flop. Results for the 2nd quarter should be out around August 8th, at that point we'll see if they've made any progress on reducing their quarterly losses....if losses come in at the usual $5 to $6 million or higher....ugh.
And with respect to being long....I still own Call Option contracts, which represent a bullish bet on the PPS, but I don't own any actual shares. Options are something that not everyone understands, they're a derivative vehicle...a futures contract.
Each contract equals 100 shares. The points to note are the price and the date they expire. My contracts are priced at $5 and expire on July 19th. The last price they traded at today was $.15 cents per share...because each contract = 100 shares that means each 100 share contract costs $15 at that $0.15 per share cost.
1 contract = 100 shares, 10 contracts = 1,000 shares, 100 contracts = 10,000 shares and so on.
I own more than one contract but its easier to explain if I deal just with one. The buyer of 1 call option contract has purchased the right to buy 100 shares of Vuzix at a cost of $5 per share. The seller of the call option is obligated to sell 100 shares to the holder of the Call Option contract at $5 per share if the option is exercised.
With VUZI trading for about $4.10 there's no point in exercising the option....why pay $500 for 100 shares when you can buy those same 100 shares on the open market around $410.
However if VUZI starts climbing next week and gets over that $5 strike price, then the Call Options do become valuable. If VUZI were to hit $6 next week, then I could exercise my option and the person who sold me the contract would be obligated to sell me 100 shares for $5 each, $500 in total....and I could then turn around and sell the shares for $600. Or I could opt to simply sell the Call Option to someone else, and it would be trading at $1+ per share for the 100 share contract....
If July 19th comes and the PPS is still under $5 though, then the options become worthless and the seller of the options who got 15 cents per share or $15 per contract...he/she keeps the money.
Clear as mud?
The chart is looking bullish....
Moving up from an incredibly oversold position....and this move was ahead of a three day weekened in Canada (July 1 Canada Day) and a short trading week in the US due to Independence day.
Hopefully we'll be getting a fireworks show of our own for Resverlogix holders. Need to get back over the 50 and 200 DMAs.
I'm not sweating the financial side anymore....
In my 5+ years being invested here Resverlogix has never been flush with cash, and for the past couple years finances have been very tight, always a failed financing away from folding up shop, or so it at least appeared...
Regardless they've always come through with the money when needed, and while past performance is never a gaurentee of what will happen in the future, I'm not worried about their ability to succeed in rasing money as they have in the past.
With that being said the Third Eye loan is supposed to come due Aug 4th as per the May 2nd news release on the extension. I would think having top-line out before that date, assuming its positive of course, that it would make raising the funds needed to retire the loan...I assume it would make it much easier.
July 4th is this coming Thursday...so hopefully by late next week or at least by the following week we'll have an update and a better idea of when top-line is coming out.
My guess is July 24th.
I've grabbed a lot of the $4.60 warrants....
Interesting how they moved up in price as RVX.TO headed down...and now that RVX.TO is moving higher the RVX.WT.A warrants are basically flat.
I'm viewing the A warrants as being something of a leading indicator...the proverbial carnary in the coal mine. June 7th was their first day of trading, and the lowest they traded that day was 61 Canadian centavos....now they're up around $1.20.
Why was demand so strong that it sent the price up around a double in such a short period of time? I think buyers of the A warrants since they started trading...I think the obvious answer is that they are incredibly bullish.
Based on the news about LSVs we should be seeing news sometime around July 4th....the time is now very compressed.
That's it in a nutshell.....
I didn't go long on Vuzix back in late 2017...in November it got down around the $5 area before getting pumped to $11+ in January. Hindsight being 20/20 its obvious that pump had nothing to do with results...the company ended up losing more money in 2018 than in any previous year I believe, net loss applicable to common was $20+ million. But regardless the company raised something like $40+ million in December 2017 and January 2018 by printing off more shares.
Same thing is happening now I believe...pump up the PPS in order to refill a depleted balance sheet and stay in biz, keeping the gravy train rolling merrily along with yearly trips to places like Vegas and Barcelona...and lucrative executive compensation packages.
The emperor has no clothes...but rather than arguing with the geniuses who say its a beautiful and exquisite outfit, I'll just ride the pump if it plays out the same way again.
I think it'll get back close to $5 by month's end....
end the 2nd qtr on a high note than carry through into July...still expecting big pops and big drops though....i don't think this company will ever make actual profit, the only way to keep the gravy train going with yearly trips to places like Vegas and Barcelona is to keep getting investors excited and without a rising share price to spur some FOMO investors will start looking over things like corporate filings and actual results.
I jumped back in the morning....
Picked up some July $5 calls....
The RVX.WT.A $4.60 warrants are trading ~$1 each.....
According to the TMX site there are 5 million outstanding, so expressing their value in Market Cap terms gives a value of about $5 million....
The RVX.WT warrants are trading around $2, TMX says there are 2,552,389 outstanding for a Mcap of almost $5 million as well
TMX has RVX's Mcap at just over $547,059 million...put them all together and the cumulative Mcap is just under $560 million....still a long way from the roughly $1 billion we were at before the share offering.
One company and three different ways to risk money: Shares, warrants convertible at $2.05 expiring in about 2 years, or warrants convertible at $4.60 expiring in about 4 years.
Based on the volumes and price movement the $4.60 WT.A warrants look to be the preferred choice of the three ever since they started trading on June 7th, thirteen days of trading in all.
Unless my fingers slipped on the calculator I make total volume for RVX.WT.A over the thirteen days of trading to be 1,303,662 across all trading platforms or over 26% of the 5 million TMX shows as being outstanding:
RVX.WT, the warrants convertible at $2.05....I make the volume over the same 13 days of trading to be just 76,771 which is only 3% of the roughly 2.5 million outstanding.
Over this same 13 day period I calculate total volume for the RVX shares to be 2,302,269 which is just 1.1% of the roughly 204 million outstanding....
Everyone enjoying the roller coaster?
I'm glad I got rid of my Call Options on Thursday....that was a big drop on pretty decent volume, thinking the Monkeys likely found the bananas they loaned out...or at least a decent number of them
The markets are a cess pool.....
Here is what I am thinking will happen, and I could be totally wrong because there are so many levers that market pros have at their disposal...but going with my gut here's my ta,e.
I do think MMs got caught short, there was already 5+ million short here...then in the last 2 weeks the company put out 4 PRs. I figure its reasonable with all the hype and promotion that the news attracted some buyers...I suspect there weren't enough sellers to satisfy the buying demand, which would mean MMs writing IOUs to fill orders imo.
If I'm right and MMs couldn't locate the shares and ended up having to go short (IOUs) in order to satisfy buyers, then I expect there could be a drop Monday as the Monkeys look to shake free enough shares to clear out their IOUs. I don't think its a large number, somewhere around 1 milion shares on the high side or as little as just 100K or so on the low end.
Bottom line is I expect some covering...no free ride in other words. Then once Monkeys have found their missing bananas I think it could be off to the races again. Vuzix does an incredible job of selling excitment and getting investors to hand over cash for shares based on forward looking promise...that's what the market is all about a lot of the time, especially with money losing speculative companies...and Vuzix has been at it for years and I figure they know the game as well as any company out there.
Cheers
Its from an old Dept of Justice case...
You can read it if you like, specifically look up "moves on request", a lovely little system is described where MMs can manipulate stocks, either lower or higher.
https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/competitive-impact-statement-9
As for MMs being exempt here's where I get the info from:
https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
1. Is all “naked” short selling abusive or illegal?
When considering “naked” short selling, it is important to know which activity is the focus of discussion.
Selling stock short without having located stock for delivery at settlement. This activity would violate Regulation SHO, except for short sales by market makers engaged in bona fide market making. Market makers engaged in bona fide market making do not have to locate stock before selling short, because they need to be able to provide liquidity. However, market makers are not excepted from Regulation SHO’s close-out and pre-borrow requirements.
Eventually if its MMs who are short, they'll have to cover....but I would expect them to use Moves on Request to spur some fear based selling before that.
Vuzix on the Reg SHO list for delivery failures:
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=regshothreshold
For those unfamiliar, this means that shares of Vuzix have been subject to delivery failures. Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, a delivery failure means the short seller failed to deliver shares to the buyer. It is typically referred to as Naked Short selling.
The one caveat I would toss in is this, from what I have read Market Makers engaged in genuine Market Making activity are exempted from positive determination requirements....normally short sellers are supposed to make 'positive determination' that the shares they're selling, that they are in fact available to be borrowed...however unless there's been a rule change I'm unaware of MM's are exempted when they're engaged in genuine market making activity.
Dumped my July $5 calls....
Bought them Tuesday at 17 cents, sold them Thursday at 45 cents. Right now the chart looks overbought to me, so I'm on the sidelines again. My expectation is that this rally will peter out tomorrow...maybe not right away, always hard to say with micros like Vuzix, they trade on emotion and a spiking/crashing pps really messes with people's emotions.
I think the broader trend in the near to medium term though is still up....the company needs to cash up if they want to keep the party going. I see some outfit out of Florida talking them up on twitter, Bear Creek Capital....might be another promotion campaign coming, or perhaps its already started.
Neither did I....but I changed my opinion on Tuesday
Picked up some $5 July Call options, and they've more than doubled in value since.....
When the news came out on April 18th...........
My understanding when that news came out, about 250 MACE being reached, was for Top-Line to come out in 2 to 4 months, which would put the goal posts at June 18th to Aug 18th
Based on last week's news about the completion of Last Site Visits we should be seeing an update sometime on or shortly after July 4th....hopefully we'll get a more definitive date by which to expect Top-Line at that point.
The way I see it BETonMACE topline has two possible PRs headlines....
Behind door #1 is a PR that says something like:
"Resverlogix's Phase 3 BETonMACE trial of Epigenetic Compound Apabetalone Met Primary Endpoint".
And behind door #2 is a PR along the lines of:
"Resverlogix's Phase 3 BETonMACE tril of Epigenetic Compount Apabetalone Fails to Meet Primary Endpoint".
Obviously beyond the headline there will be other important data being reported, but I would argue that the PPS will trade based on what the headline is. If its thumbs up, look out above....if its thumbs down on the primary objective, then look out below, way way way below in my opinion.
I know that some have expressed the view that if BETonMACE fails to prove a statistically significant improvement in time to first occurrence of adjudication-confirmed narrowly defined MACE....some have argued that secondary endpoints around CKD and Cognition could still provide a path foward.
Personally I don't see it....and here is why. If the trial fails on MACE, then Resverlogix is back to having to design a new trial or trials...and I suspect with CKD and Cognition they'd be starting from Phase 2, which by my read would mean adding another 2 or more likely 3 years to the possibility of comercialization of Apabetalone.
I assume they'd need somewhere around $40 to $50 million Canadian per year...and they don't have it right now, that is money they'd have to raise. Personally I think its game over with Apabetalone then being sold off to whomever would be willing to buy it....and imo at a severe discount to what it "may" one day prove to be worth.
In my mind this is a totally binary play with everything riding on meeting the primary endpoint. Best case scenario is a PR that says:
"Resverlogix's Phase 3 BETonMACE trial of Epigenetic Compound Apabetalone Met both the Primary Endpoint and Secondary Endpoints".
Companies that can't execute don't become giants...
And Vuzix had a decent following when it was trading OTC in the states and on Canada's micro/nano cap playgorund Venture exchange.
Companies that can't execute don't become giants...
And Vuzix had a decent following when it was trading OTC in the states and on Canada's micro/nano cap playgorund Venture exchange.
I'm not sure what you mean noretreat....
If you're meaning I break even if RVX.TO gets to $6....that doesn't make sense to me.
At $6 CAD the warrants priced at $4.60 would be in the money to the tune of about $1.40...and would be trading at $1.40 + the time value of money premium. I assume RVX.WT.A would be trading for at least $2 minimum or about a 100% gain from what I paid for them Friday....and $6 would be a little over 100% above what I sold the shares at, $2.87 CAD, 109.5% actually.
I couldn't short RVX even if I wanted to.....
My broker doesn't make it available for shorting, at least not for me. But I did give in to what seems to me to be pretty solid logic and dumped 2,500 shares to pick up 5,000 RVX.WT.A warrants....I could have bought more but its nice having 5K warrants in place of 2.5K shares and a couple grand to play around with for whatever opportunities arise.