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The market has placed the burden of Euro sales proof on the company.
It is effectively saying, "You're going nowhere in the Old World."
The word for stupid in French is actually “bête”, Captain…
I did it!
I went back in time, sold AMRN in the fall of 2018, and put all of the money into NVIDIA. I'm a centimillionaire now!
"But you can't do that. You can't go back in time and do different trades."
Of course I can. Ask FFS. He does it all the time!
I plan on putting my head in my oven after the next earnings report.
MRM, it's pretty simple now -- Cash erosion has to be managed until Europe becomes a real revenue generator.
I just don't know how long that will take.
But look at expenses vs revenue. $43mm expenses Q2 vs ongoing revenue per quarter, in the medium term, of maybe $30mm. Let's say that's right.
So you burn (be conservative) $15mm per quarter. You can do 2 years of that and still have $180+ million in cash in the bank.
I would think that in 2 years Europe has to be up to at least $100mm, and with an authorized generic in the US you can hold $100mm per year indefinitely.
I can't see any way we go broke. And there are upside catalysts out there -- the Hikma lawsuit specifically.
There were a few smart people here who got out shortly after the REDUCE-IT news came out. They were happy with the run up from $3 to $20, especially if they did it on options, and they didn't fall in love with the stock. They made out like bandits.
I didn't do that because I'm dumb. It's that simple.
AMRN has clearly been the flight to quality stock of this downturn. It is the Rock of Gibraltar.
I'd be shocked if the stock doesn't go immediately to $5 by the end of the week.
Market shouldn't have to do that. Fed, once again, overhiked and overheld. Because they are incapable of forecasting.
Um what? It's an IRA. Basis doesn't matter.
Yeah but to sit there like dopes into 2022 and feed it with more cheap money?
I’ll say it again — the Fed is incapable of getting out ahead of ANYTHING.
The market knows the Fed is too dumb to anticipate anything. The Fed will cut too slowly and cause a recession just like they kept money too cheap too long and caused massive inflation.
The Fed is dumber than AMRN management.
The biggest development on the patent front is the 2039 expiration in Europe.
It would be interesting to hear the lawyers here opine on how strong those patents are. It's on REDUCE-IT, so you would think they are VERY strong, but Europe is a capitalist's nightmare.
That's what I meant.
I should have said "won't" instead of "can't".
they can't do a buyback until they demonstrate cash flow stability
that could be a year or two, and that assume Europe really firms up
yummy yummy yummy SHIT SANDWICH
It is true
There are a LOT of arseholes on this board
Well that would be insider trading
It’s MNPI even if you heard it at a bar
I'm tastytheelf by the way. MRM made me change my handle.
If they are maintaining a $50mm buyback (we'll have to see what they say in the Q2 earnings call), and they want to do it like grown-up companies do, then they'd stretch it out over like 6 months to a year, and there would be some opportunism to it.
You'd be looking at 250k to 500k shares per trading day I would think. Right now that would distort the market and drive the price up.
It should be! It isn't some kind of Frankenstein gene-altering, cancer-causing chemical -- it's a natural extract!
You'd think we'd get a bigger reaction to getting both primary and secondary approval in a country with well over a billion people, half of whom probably die of CVD.
It just goes to show you how investors just assume China will steal the drug and make/sell it cheap.
Amarin’s outcome is a pimple on the butt of the potential impact of this case on the pharmaceutical industry.
If Amarin wins this puts the entire generic business model in jeopardy.
Now I know for sure that during the summer we're either going much higher or much lower.
This is probably now the easiest company in the world to analyze.
We're trading for cash. There's a sustainable Euro franchise with patent protection until 2039, and unlike the SHTG patents in the US, it's hard to see how the CVD patents in Europe are attackable -- all the experts said it wouldn't work.
Worst case scenario the European market grows to half the Lovaza market ($500mm), and this company makes $100mm net until 2039. Discounted cashflow basis should make AMRN worth $750mm to $1bn. With buybacks taking the share count down to ~250mm over time, the company should be worth $3 to $4. As a floor.
I'll take my $3.50 now, thanks.
Are you happy now MRM?
I'm actually up from my big buy a few days ago...
How does that work? Is that legal? Will I get arrested?
Do it MRM!
It's convoluted due to options turning into stock, but it's around $2 per share now
You know it big guy
15k at 67 and change
Welp, my average cost just went way down…
Here's an interesting theory for you.
So they find out the US goes further into the shitter, and Denner decides he's had enough. He's going to dump this turd to the highest bidder at a crappy price (call it $2). Holt's interest in this turd is his 5 million option shares that don't vest at all unless the company is sold for at least $2.50. Once he is told this, he looks at his deal and realizes he's working for salary.
F this, he says, and they say fine. Aaron Berg knows how to sign his own name, so that is good enough.
Yes. The board says, "We want you to tender your resignation." And he said fine.
Yes the company is now officially trading for cash, assigning an enterprise value of *$0* to Vazkepa and its European prospects.
I am tempted to buy this thing at cash value, but then I'm also an idiot.
Also, I'm sure everyone has noticed the glaring absence today of the world's most reliable contrarian indicator.
MRM -- curious to get your take here.
Death knell or buying oppo?
Man he was one crazy bastard and I loved that guy. So sad.
Primary and secondary included
We have got to get Nunavut on board. I think every single one of those 40,586 people there need Vascepa. Freezing your ass off is very inflammatory.
They should run a 12-week trial in Europe for this indication -- from design to publication that ought to take a year
Anybody know if Amarin holds any European patents on this indication (headaches)?