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Sold JNUG - own...
GORO, FSM.ASM, and SVM.
Geez - getting hard to hold onto - stop loss limits in just in case.
Although he makes some good points...
KL is hardly the appropriate comparison. Major on NYSE ~$55 share price with >255 mil shares out - and he failed to mention all the lawsuits against KL - hard to find their earnings release - need to wade through a ton lawsuit news releases - to name a few warts - which I believe you can find on any company.
Fake review/news.
Bought more GORO based on increasing gold price, new acquisition, low shares, dividend, steady, and lots of overhead room for growth.
Silver soaring post market...
Could get real exciting tomorrow.
Heads up - silver soaring post market...
Unusual. Another big day tomorrow shaping up - but could drop just as fast. We shall see.
Silver up near 22 post market...
Looks like another big day tomorrow - if it holds.
Very rare to find low outstanding shares, profitable gold producer paying a dividend. I bought some more. I truly believe it’s going much higher.
Oh - if you know of another cold or silver stock that has same qualities - please share here. I will buy. TIA.
Gold breakout official if it closes above 1,810 today...
and off to races for JNUG
I'm in - quite a bit. Luv JNUG.
Don't know if low is in...
But bought in today - substantial amount.
in today...
IMO this is one of the few MJ stocks that has reasonable share structure and business plan - and I've been around a long, long time, FWIW.
It isn't always about whether company will succeed over next 10 years - only looking for company to show progress over next 6-12 months - then will likely sell. Probabilities are high - IMO - that this will occur with this company/stock.
Regardless, the potential for significant share price increase is absolutely here - and there is little doubt of that.
Still holding most stocks...
and still up. Waiting for the steady rise in gold and silver to occur. Patience will hopefully pay off.
I have well over 6 figures in gold and silver...
and related stocks - and own nearly nothing else. rode out the last two years - after selling some - and although mentally challenging - believe this is how the big, big money is made. Am set up for a bull run in gold and silver. Bring it on and give me 7 figures.
Martin Armstrong now hedging his forecast on gold...
and saying this could be the time for a massive rise. Whereas before he strongly believed the Dow would rise and gold fall into next year and perhaps beyond - and only then rise --- he now is saying there is a chance that the time for gold is now.
That puts us in a spot where nearly all of the people who foresaw the previous financial crisis are saying gold's time is, or could be, now.
Gold $5,000+ – Why
Posted by Martin Armstrong
August 14, 2013
QUESTION: You have been really hard on the “gold promoters”, yet you are long-term bullish on gold. Why would gold rise if not for all the reasons put forth by the gold promoters?
ANSWER: I was a gold market-maker. Personally, I prefer gold. I prefer to handle it. But whatever my personal feeling about gold, that is irrelevant when it comes to forecasting. I have learned to separate my “personal” likes and dislikes from the cold light of ascertaining what truly makes the world tick. Gold just “feels” better in your hand than paper – yes agreed. However, that does not mean that is reality. There is a huge difference. It would be nice if we all got along. But we do not. A lion will kill to eat. That is nature. We cannot live in a dream world. Some people are vegetarians. That makes them personally “feel” good. It will not stop the lion from killing you when it is hungry. Understanding gold is the same.
Whenever markets peak, immediately thereafter, the human emotions involved are in a state of denial. The gold promoters have thrown everything from fiat to systemic manipulation as the reason why they are right yet the market moves against them. The very same state of denial dominated the atmosphere for the first 3 years in Japan following the 1989.95 bubble top. I became famous in Japan because I simply said sorry – the government will not be able to prevent the decline.
In Australia back in 1989, there too, the analytical crowd touted that the A$ would collapse because of the current account deficit. I stood up and said wrong. The A$ would rally not decline and the current account deficit was expanding BECAUSE of the foreign investment into Australia that sent the A$ higher. The economic community fails to understand capital flows and is clueless about even the accounting system. This is why Milton Friedman came to see me lecture in Chicago. He grasped what I was saying and could see it in his mind’s eye. Milton encouraged me to speak out and could see I had a front row seat.
The MAJORITY must be wrong. That is what makes the markets move. The rally in gold from 1999 was simply a realignment with gold rising to keep pace with value on a marginal basis. I was blamed for creating the takeover boom of the ’80s because I was advising many of the takeover traders. I was lecturing around the world showing the Dow Jones Industrials from the book value viewpoint and demonstrated that the market was seriously undervalued as the Private Wave began in 1985. I illustrated that you could buy a company, sell all its assets, and double your money. That showed the market was UNDERVALUED and not OVERVALUED. The 1987 Rally was like gold up for 13 years. It was the beginning not the end of a readjustment. We forecast that the 1987 Crash was the low and new highs would be made by 1989. Again, the majority were calling for a 90% drop in the Dow. They were wrong as always.
That was why when the Dow was at 1,000 we forecast it would rise to 6,000 over the next 10 years and 12,000 26 years from the 1974 low. The Dow reached the 6,000 level in 1996 and 26 years after the 1974 low we reached 11908 in 2000. Sorry, we were off by 100 points but the timing was correct. With systemic inflation that ALWAYS infects money even when it was coin, assets rise in proportion to the supply of money over time. It is not an immediate trend. There are lagging periods and then abrupt readjustments. The rally in the Dow from 1985 into 2000 was the first stage of this readjustment. Gold will do the same thing in time.
The rally in gold from 1999 was a readjustment. It was not a bull market in terms of real value – only nominal. What I mean by that is the simple fact that gold has not exceeded the 1980 high in real terms. That requires gold to exceed $2,300. So the BULL MARKET in gold, like I have just described in the Dow, has yet to take place. The gold promoters have no sense of timing or how markets even move. They were just selling product in which they were conflicted with self-interest. That puts them in the category of simply a state of denial and every uptick is real with every down tick being a manipulation. That is nonsense and all markets oscillate up and down. The Dow readjusted when the ECM turned from PUBLIC to PRIVATE – not before. This is not stuff that can be determined by personal opinion. Nobody can forecast looking at fundamentals. The markets respond on an interlinked basis. This is why the majority must be WRONG when society tries to reduce every move to a single cause.
We have only two possibilities. (1) We get the phase transition in the Dow now going into 2015.75 whereby the Dow nearly doubles in value creating the bubble top, or (2) the Phase Transition is postponed into 2025 for the next 8.6 year wave. This depends upon the debt crisis. If we see the sovereign debt unravel now, then capital will flee into tangibles. There will not be the flight to quality so sovereign debt will not be the alternative but tangible assets. Thus, gold will rally at that time in place of government bonds. Because there is little gold at the current price relative to the cash, its price must rise to the price level in the $5,000 area.
If we back off and do not get the Phase Transition in the Dow going into 2015.75, then it is postponed until the next wave looking at 2025 for the high. We will address this in a special report.
Conspiracy
This has nothing to do with fiat and all the stories spun around selling gold. It is simply an asset. If you were to actually extend into a Mad Max event, then gold loses all value and we return to food as money. We MUST begin to understand the mechanism by which society functions. Stop the BS – open your eyes – understand that you cannot get x without y moving as well. So the gold promoters become their own worst enemy just as the Ministry of Finance in Japan. Once people saw they could not prevent the decline, they lost faith in government. The reason gold will rally is rooted in the debt crisis. Forget the fiat nonsense, hyperinflation, systemic manipulations. Who cares if there is gold in Fort Knox? Do you really think they will admit that anyway? You might as well be wearing your tin foil hat because that is no reason to buy gold. Those that put out those stories cannot prove what they say. It is just nonsense if it cannot be fact. If you buy gold on BS, then you will also not sell when it is time to take a profit. It is a market – trade it. Money is only a medium of exchange. It rises in purchasing power during economic declines and falls during economic booms. That is it regardless of what it might be. Get over it!
biggest loss in full-time jobs...
in over a year - not good:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000
today's jobs numbers stunk...
and to think otherwise is to not know the facts - or intentionally overlook them - neither of which is wise:
ShadowStats:
- Full-Time Employment Plunged by 240,000 in June
- Economic Issues Accounted for 75% of Gain in Part-Time Employment
- Number of Short-Term Discouraged Workers Increased by 197,000
- June Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.4% (ShadowStats)
- Payroll Gains Were Warped Heavily by Inconsistent Seasonal Factors
From Zero Hedge.
As a reminder: jobs have quantity and quality components. The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals). But how about the quality? In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality" leading to today's market euphoria (if only for now).
Survive this gold and silver...
blistering and there will be big rewards IMO. The bubble phase is yet to come - but it appears set to go according to this:
http://www.munknee.com/aden-forecast-bubble-phase-in-gold-to-begin-in-2013-and-possibly-reach/
I bought in...
and believe it will see better days soon. I still believe this is coming:
http://www.munknee.com/aden-forecast-bubble-phase-in-gold-to-begin-in-2013-and-possibly-reach/
and when it does - good gold stocks like this will fly. Don't know when - but likely in next several months we'll see gold turn notably higher for the next big bubble, blow out run. It will be worth waiting for.
Bought some today...
believe this is the bottom in gold and silver- gold at around 1286 should move up from here. Feel the pain and desperation which usually means a cycle low. Hope to hold onto this for a year or more.
still surviving but gold...
and silver stocks sure took a hit. Still holding some so feeling some pain - but going to keep holding and betting on a very, very strong rebound.
thinking about buying in...
but is that a gap at see at 3 - may need to wait and see if it wants to close. Otherwise, like the company so watching for entry point.
Alf Fields breaks his silence...
Elliott Wave Gold Update: In the article “What Happened to Gold” dated 1 march 2012, the “other possibilities” mentioned in the event of gold dropping below $1650 related firstly to the 61.8% retracement of the prior rise. The prior rise was from $1523 to $1792, so the 61.8% retracement was $1626. There was a further possibility of the retracement being 2/3 of the prior rise, also a Fibonacci relationship. That produced a figure of $1612. The first number $1626 did provide some support to the market but the absolute low was $1612.8 on 4 April 2012. This low came at the culmination of a double zig-zag correction, which adds to the validity of that low. The odds now suggest that the gold correction bottomed at $1612.8 on 4 April 2012 and that the gold market is in the early stages of a sharp upward move.
Alf Field
28 April 2012
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1335717000.php
any thoughts on SCORPIO MINING SPM.to SMNPF.PK...
down here under $1???
Picked up some, but gun-shy to pull the trigger on too much. Was highly recommended earlier this year - but 2011 had some high costs impact the bottom line.
been waiting for silver low...
and following EW theory and Alf Fields. This guy tries to pick up where Fields left off since Fields hasn't posted for a while. He thinks silver has likely bottomed and heading much higher.
"Comments (25 April 2012): There are a number of indicators that today was the low in silver:
1. Climax selling volume.
2. Elliott Wave has reached the -21% level.
3. Spike low and an extremely bullish DRAGONFLY DOJI on the daily chart.
4. Price behavior nearly exact inverse of topping (37.58) action.
5. Mining stocks gained rather than continuing fall.
6. Gold/silver ratio gap at 54 closed.
7. One-year anniversary of silver high at 49.82.
8. No more FOMC until June.
9. Most importantly, this chart demonstrates that silver reached a key Fibonacci level.
Low point will be confirmed when silver breaks out above the two downtrend lines (currently near 31.60 and 32.50). Price targets will then be gold 2100 and silver 50 via inverse H&S. "
http://www.xaviercromartie.com/2012/02/tracking-silver-elliott-waves-major-iii.html
I know of none - but can you please...
provide the name of the company proposing to do so - I may be a buyer. In buying mode right now.
Bought MJXFF down here...
Chart indicates at bottom of range.
New EW Silver Discovery
Alf Field
|
February 1, 2012 - 1:24pm
http://www.silverseek.com/article/new-ew-silver-discovery
I have received numerous emails asking about silver. This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct. The question caused me to take a closer look at silver.
The reason why I have written very little about silver in the past was because the beautiful Elliott Wave (EW) symmetry and predictable relationships visible in gold were not to be found in silver. This article reveals a new EW discovery that proves that EW is alive and well and living in silver.
I first wrote about silver in December 2003 in an article titled “US Dollar Implosion – Part II”. The link to this article is at: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/field120503.html. The brief piece on silver was tacked onto the end of that article. In view of its brevity, the 2003 silver piece is reproduced in full below:
SILVER
“In past crises, the wealthy protected themselves by purchasing gold and gold related assets. Ordinary people, by far the greater number, could rarely afford to buy gold. Being far cheaper, they previously had to buy silver. This metal became the poor man's choice as an asset to protect their savings. Silver has so far lagged gold in the early stages of this bull market, but that situation seems about to change.”
“Throughout recorded history the average relationship between silver and gold has been 15oz silver to 1oz gold. The ratio at present is a far higher 75:1 ($400/$5.30). This is massively out of line. If gold were to double to $800 per oz, it would not be unreasonable to expect the silver/gold ratio to decline sharply, possibly as low as 40:1. With gold at $800, this would position silver at $20.
Thus a 100% increase in the price of gold could possibly be accompanied by a simultaneous 400% increase (perhaps more) in the price of silver. This offers significant opportunities both in silver bullion and silver mining shares.
The above graph of the price of silver has been borrowed from an excellent recent article by Dan Norcini entitled "A Technical Look at Silver - Update". What is quite clear from the graph is that silver's 22-year bear market down trend has come to an end. As Dan Norcini says, a new bull market in silver has been born. It is difficult to argue against this contention and I have no intention of doing so. A silver price above $6.80 would complete a fabulous head-and-shoulders base formation. With this as a foundation, it would be possible to project a very large rise in the price of silver for the future.” – end of the December 2003 quotation.
Silver did reach $20.68 in March 2008 at the same time that gold peaked at $1003. The silver to gold ratio was thus 48.5 in March 2008. The lowest this ratio has reached SINCE 2001 is about 32, achieved at the end of April 2011 when gold was around $1570 and silver peaked in the $49 area. At that point gold had experienced a 6-fold increase from its bull market starting point of $255 while the silver price rose 12-fold from its starting point of $4 in November 2001.
The quick answer to the question of what the silver price will be when gold gets to $4,500 is to pick your favorite silver/gold ratio and divide it into $4500. The current ratio incidentally is about 51. If you choose the lowest ratio achieved since 2001 of 32 that would produce a silver price of around $140 ($4500 divided by 32).
This is not a satisfactory answer, so I decided to approach the Elliott Wave analysis of silver from a different angle. Instead of working upwards using the analysis of the minor waves, which was the technique used in the gold calculations, what if we worked backwards in silver starting with the larger waves?
Gold and silver tend to move in tandem, not in an exact synchronization, but enough to suggest that the Major waves of both metals should coincide from a time perspective. We know that in gold the Major ONE wave peaked in March 2008 at $1003 and that Major TWO declined to $680 in November 2008.
Silver also had a peak in March 2008 at $20.68 and declined to an important low of $8.77 in November 2008. If we assumed that the peak at $20.68 in March 2008 was the end of Major ONE and the decline to $8.77 the end of Major TWO, how would the various percentages work out? When I did these calculations I was astonished at the relationships and wave counts that emerged.
The chart below is the monthly spot silver price shown in log scale so that the percentage changes are visible. The bull market started in November 2001 at a price of $4.02. From that point to the suggested peak of Major ONE at $20.68 there are five clear waves visible, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The prices at the various turning points are also displayed.
The analysis of the suggested Major ONE wave is set out in the body of the chart. The typical impulse wave relationships are immediately apparent. Both corrective waves 2 and 4 are similar (-33.7% and -35.9%). Whenever two corrective waves are similar it is a signal that they are part of the same larger wave structure. On its own, this fact would confirm that the 5 wave move from $4.02 to $20.68 was a complete wave of larger degree.
There is further corroborating evidence. Waves 1 and 5 are similar at +106% and +115%, a usual EW feature. Wave 3 should be the longest wave, and it is at +171%. In addition, if one multiplies the gain in wave 1 of +106% by 1.618 it produces 171.5%, exactly the gain in wave 3. These relationships are evidence that the rise from $4.02 to $20.68 is a completed impulse wave and that we can call it Major ONE.
Having completed this 5 wave up move, the next correction in Major TWO would be expected to be one degree larger than the two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% in Major ONE. As shown on the chart, Major TWO declined from $20.68 to $8.77, a loss of -57.6%. The two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% are close to the Fibonacci 34. The next higher number in the sequence is 55, close to the actual decline of 57.6% in major TWO. Incidentally, if we take the 35.9% decline and multiply it by 1.618, it gives a figure of 58%, very close to the actual decline of 57.6%.
These relationships suggest that silver has completed the same shaped bull market as gold has and that it is at the same stage in its development. Thus silver has probably also completed the first intermediate up wave of Major THREE, in this case from $8.77 to $49.52, a gain of +$40.75 or +464% and has also completed intermediate wave 2 of Major THREE, being the decline from $49.52 to $26.39 or -47%.
How does this decline of -47% measure up in terms of EW relationships? As with gold, where the corrections in Major THREE were shown to be larger than the corrections in Major ONE, the same applies to silver. The corrections in Major ONE shown in the chart above were close to -34%. If we multiply 34% by another Fibonacci relationship of 1.382 we get 47%!
This is mind-blowing stuff for an analyst who did not believe that EW applied to silver!
We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.
Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).
The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.
A word of caution is appropriate at this stage. All EW studies are based on probabilities. While the wave counts may provide a high degree of confidence in the forecasts, one cannot be 100% certain of any forecast. It is necessary to have a point at which it is obvious that the forecasts are wrong. In the case of this silver study, the line in the sand is at $26.00. If the silver price drops below $26.00 the odds are that the above calculations will not work out.
A further word of caution: silver is not for the faint hearted. Silver is considerably more volatile than gold and the corrections are much larger. Silver corrections can and do happen quickly. They are emotionally gut-wrenching and it is easy to get shaken out of one’s position near the bottom of a large correction.
Alf Field
1 February 2012
Comments to ajfield@attglobal.net
Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement: The author has personal investments in gold and silver bullion, as well as in gold, silver, uranium and base metal mining shares. The author’s objective in writing this article is to interest potential investors in this subject to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, currency or commodity. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions. The author has neither been paid nor received any other inducement to write this article.
latest from Schiff...
"Rather than the bursting of a bubble, the recent technical action in gold is more indicative of a break-out. In fact, the positive divergence of gold stock from bullion in this recent correction is evidence that a more powerful leg in this bull market is about to begin. Up until now, the market for gold stocks has been characterized by fear. However, it now appears to me that gold stocks will make a new high before the metal itself. If the stocks finally begin to lead the metal, it means traders are finally starting to believe in this rally. Rather than evidencing the end of the trend, such a shift in sentiment likely indicates an acceleration in that trend. Maybe when the last skeptic finally throws in the towel, we may finally get the blow-off top Gartman thinks already occurred - but that day is likely many years into the future."
sure looks like the official...
Economic Crisis number 2. Gold and Silver and related stocks still the place to be. Got a feeling that this is the big one for gold and silver stocks over the next few months. When the money flows back into the market - they should see much more of it.
still around, still holding...
gold and silver stocks to the hilt. Waiting patiently - thinking this is a good launching point to new highs - but have thought that several times before and been wrong.
Another Way to Look at Cheap Gold Stocks
By Jeff Clark, editor, S&A Short Report
Friday, May 20, 2011
The gold sector looks ready to bounce.
It's been a rough year for gold stocks. Even though the price of gold is up 5% so far in 2011 (near $1,500 an ounce), gold stocks are underwater. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for example, is down about 10% for the year.
And as my colleague Steve Sjuggerud pointed out, you see the same pattern over the longer term, too:
Over the last three years, the price of gold is up over 60%... But gold stocks (as measured by the big gold stock fund GDX) are up less than 20%.
This action has a lot of gold stock investors scratching their heads.
With the commodities complex selling off a bit recently in reaction to a bouncing dollar, many gold bugs are throwing in the towel. They're selling their stocks. And in the process, they're creating some bargains in the gold sector.
Lots of big-name gold stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) are trading at historically low valuations. The gold sector itself trades at a discount to the S&P 500. The dividend yields on many of the larger companies are higher than the rate on two-year Treasurys.
You don't often see gold stocks trading this cheap. The sector is approaching oversold levels and is at least due for at a short-term bounce.
Take a look at this chart of the gold sector bullish percent index (BPGDM)...
A bullish percent index (BPI) is a measure of overbought and oversold conditions for a market sector. A sector is overbought when the BPI runs above 80, and it's oversold when the BPI drops below 30. Typically, the best time to buy into a sector is after the BPI has reached oversold levels and starts to move higher.
As you can see from the chart above, the best buying opportunity of the past two years for gold stocks was in February 2010 (the blue circle).
Of course, we don't always have to wait for the "best" time to buy to take advantage of opportunities. The red circles on the chart indicate "good" spots to jump into the gold sector. Each spot occurred right after a deep decline in the sector and proceeded with a sharp rally higher. The BPI dropped sharply each time, but didn't quite fall to "oversold" levels.
Look at how GDX behaved each time...
So while the best time to jump into the gold sector is when the BPI drops below 30 and turns higher, the BPI can point out other good times to buy, too. I believe we're approaching one of those times right now.
The gold sector bullish percent index is acting similar to how it was last year. It bottomed in late January/early February... ran higher for a few months... then dropped hard in May. That action led to a bounce in the sector that popped GDX 15% higher in one month.
That's the sort of bounce we should see this year as well.
It's certainly possible, however, that the gold sector will just keep dropping until the BPGDM drops below 30 and the sector becomes officially oversold. You'll want to have plenty of cash available to buy gold stocks if we ever get to that point.
But given the bargain basement pricing of many gold stocks, it's worth it to take a small bullish position in the sector right now.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
http://gold-dinar.blogspot.com/2011/05/another-way-to-look-at-cheap-gold.html
Peter Schiff on gold and silver miners...
"be patient.." "these stocks are going to go ballistic"
May 19, 2011
With gold off the lows and silver trading higher, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Europacific Capital. When asked about the pullback in gold Schiff remarked, “I think it’s a buying opportunity...I do believe the US economy is slowing down, in fact I think it’s going to slow a lot more than people realize. But for that reason I think that quantitive easing will not end over the summer, in fact I think the Fed is going to step it up. QE3 could be even bigger than QE2 and that’s very bullish for precious metals and very bearish for the dollar.”
When asked about the Mexican central bank purchase of 100 tons of gold Schiff replied, “What surprises me is that more central banks aren’t buying even more gold. Central banks are loaded up with depreciating dollars, they need to buy gold instead. The crazy thing is that I’m even hearing talk about the US selling its gold to help fund its debts. That would be the worst thing we could do. The last thing we would want to sell is our gold, I mean if we sold that then that would be it, we would have nothing. The dollar would just become complete confetti.”
When asked about silver specifically Schiff stated, “Remember it went up to $50 from $30 almost as fast as it came down. I think if you just take a look at the long-term trajectory it’s still a big bull market. I think that $50 high is not going to hold...We are going to take that ($50 high) out and move a lot higher. We are suckering a lot of new short sellers into the market as people are comparing it to a bubble now or 1980, the Hunt Brothers. I don’t think what we’ve had so far is anywhere close to what happened in 1980. We might get to that point at some time in the future, but we’re not there yet.
We’ve created sufficient nervousness and anxiety in the market and enough shorts that we should have a nice wall of worry that we can climb, and ultimately a pretty good short covering rally. I think a lot of the people who have shorted this selloff in silver are going to lose a lot of money...We could have a dollar crisis as early as this fall and if we are having a dollar crisis then I would be expecting silver prices to be making new highs.”
Regarding mining shares Schiff had this to say, “A lot of these juniors are lower than they were five years ago, some of them are lower than they were ten years ago. You wouldn’t even know that we are in a bull market in gold, you’d think it was still a bear market. I own a lot of them and not a single one of them has ever split. To me it doesn’t sound like a bull market when you don’t have any of your stocks splitting and I’ve owned them for ten years. You remember the internet stocks, I mean there were internet stocks splitting every week. There’s no bubble activity going on in these mining stocks, hardly anybody owns them.”
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/19_Peter_Schiff_files/Peter%20Schiff%205%3A19%3A2011.mp3
or
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/19_Peter_Schiff.html
2011 RANKING OF COUNTRIES FOR MINING INVESTMENT...
http://www.miningminnesota.com/uploads/2011_Country_Ranking.pdf
and this guy says stocks not rising...
due to financing: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303748818.php
The Coming Junior Stock Eruption
-- Posted Monday, 25 April 2011 |Source: GoldSeek.com
By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
The junior market is on the verge of blowing up like a “Coke geyser.”
If you’re not one of the 13 million views of what happens when Mentos are dropped into a bottle of Diet Coke, you should know it creates an eruption of foam reaching as high as 20 feet.
That’s exactly what the junior market is set to do soon.
Could it Get Any Better?
The junior market hasn’t performed as well as should be expected over the last few months.
There are, as always, the few special situations that have done very well.
The overall market, however, has lagged significantly while the fundamentals say it should be setting new highs along with gold, silver and oil. But it hasn’t.
The table below breaks down the return of various assets since the start of the year:
This should be “Prime Time” for junior stocks that are often so highly leveraged to the prices of the gold, silver, and oil. But junior stocks have performed more poorly than almost any other related asset.
There are a number of factors one could easily point to for this lag. The Japan earthquake and financial fallout devastated junior stocks. Mr. Market believes gold and silver have run too far, too fast. Overall economic sentiment has taken a turn for the worse.
But they’re all wrong. The TSX Venture Index has fully recovered from the post-Japan sell-off. Gold and silver prices are still well below their inflation-adjusted historical highs and low for the current (and widely expected) negative real interest rates. Economic sentiment has never fully recovered from 2008.
The real reason for the lagging performance, I believe is much simpler. And it’s creating a great and predictable opportunity.
History Repeats
Every year the TSX Venture goes through a similar seasonal cycle.
For example, last year the TSX Venture Index fell 19% between March and July. Meanwhile, gold, silver, and oil fell 3%, 2%, and 8% respectively over the same time period.
The current lag in the TSX Venture Index happens every spring and it has a simple explanation - financings.
Junior resource companies issue new shares year round, but most deals are completed in the late fall and winter. November through February is the peak financing period.
The trend hasn’t changed this year either. The only real difference is that the total value of financing deals completed was much higher.
The table below shows how TSX Venture financings between November and February increased by 80% compared to the same period the year before:
The massive amount of financings (most with four month hold periods) is the most critical drag on the overall TSX Venture market.
With more than $5 billion worth of stock (that’s excluding an increase in value of shares and value of attached warrants) coming free trading, there’s a lot to soak up. After all, the total market value of the TSX Venture market is about $80 billion. So a $5 billion wall creates a big hurdle.
What’s happening right now is the financial equivalent of dropping Mentos into a bottle of Diet Coke and putting a cap on it. The cap is going to hold for a while, but it’s going to explode higher and faster when it does. That’s why we’re seeing this as buying season for juniors.
A Catalyst for Change
There are multiple catalysts to blow the lid off of the junior market.
There are major new discoveries being made every at the rate of once or twice per year.
Drilling season in the Yukon is about to get started and if another discovery is made, there’s going to be some big speculative premiums on almost all Yukon-focused junior gold companies.
Also, as time goes by, there will be less shares coming on the market. TSX Venture financing deals peaked last December. Those are just coming free trading now. January and February were lighter activity months and have left a smaller wall. In the end, all of these deals will be unlocked by July anyways. It’s just a matter of time.
Any way you look at it, the junior market is poised to explode over the next few months and finish the year incredibly strongly if gold and silver prices hold together.
Even if they don’t correct too hard (imagine $1450 gold and $40 silver), conditions would be exceptionally positive for junior resource stocks to do well.
Remember, oil, gold, and silver prices fell between 2% and 8% during the same period last year while the TSX Venture fell 19%.
Currently the inverse is about to happen – only an order of magnitude larger. Gold, silver, and oil prices are up significantly between 9% and 50%. But the TSX Venture index is actually down despite the most optimal conditions.
Everything is in place for a big jump in junior resource stocks and conditions will likely continue to be in the coming months (more reasons why available here). There may be an inclination to sell in May and go away, but the seasonal nature of the junior market is making it a much better time to be a buyer.
Good investing,
Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing
there will be blood...
somewhere, and soon. It's either going to be the silver shorts, or the large buyers getting into silver at these prices.
Dan Norcini articulates it well - and have seen some others confirm what he is seeing - and that is = silver has risen dramatically and yet the large shorts are not covering, but instead, increasing their short positions.
These large shorts are dealing with huge losses, and yet instead of giving in and accepting their huge loss with the hope of surviving, it appears they are putting themselves in (and likely already there) a do or die position. This cannot end well for someone.
There will be hell to pay for the losers.
See Norcini's words below on what the shorts may be feeling and check out his full description of the deadly game being played (I have also experienced these emotions and they are indeed horrid): http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
"Having been on the wrong side of a market at various times in my career I can tell you from firsthand experience, the emotions that one deals with run the gamut from fear to despair to panic and total desperation. It is a horrid thing to live through mainly because the losses mount at such a rapid clip. What makes matters worse is that you keep waiting for a setback in price, any setback, to try to buy back those shorts and it never seems to come. Prices just keep going up and up and up and up. You learn very quickly the terrible, awful power of leverage gone awry."
there will be blood...
somewhere, and soon. It's either going to be the silver shorts, or the large buyers getting into silver at these prices.
Dan Norcini articulates it well - and have seen some others confirm what he is seeing - and that is = silver has risen dramatically and yet the large shorts are not covering, but instead, increasing their short positions.
These large shorts are dealing with huge losses, and yet instead of giving in and accepting their huge loss with the hope of surviving, it appears they are putting themselves in (and likely already there) a do or die position. This cannot end well for someone.
There will be hell to pay for the losers.
See Norcini's words below on what the shorts may be feeling and check out his full description of the deadly game being played (I have also experienced these emotions and they are indeed horrid): http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
"Having been on the wrong side of a market at various times in my career I can tell you from firsthand experience, the emotions that one deals with run the gamut from fear to despair to panic and total desperation. It is a horrid thing to live through mainly because the losses mount at such a rapid clip. What makes matters worse is that you keep waiting for a setback in price, any setback, to try to buy back those shorts and it never seems to come. Prices just keep going up and up and up and up. You learn very quickly the terrible, awful power of leverage gone awry."
or - JPM is bankrupt already...
in a technical sense that they are unable to satisfy any just claims made upon them - it's just that they have woven a tangled web to avoid (or just delay) the collection of such claims.
Someone with big pockets appears to be playing the silver game with JPM and winning - but the game is not over until JPM is either openly bankrupt or manages to plunge silver back down - IMO.
Also could be argued that they are morally bankrupt, i.e., lacking in moral quality.
Some thoughts on this here:
http://www.benzinga.com/commodities/11/04/1025338/the-squeeze-is-on-silver-continues-its-climb-slv-udn-jpm-hsbc
and a little older one -
http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/10/12/668905/j-p-morgan-getting-squeezed-in-silver-market-slv-jpm
upbeat outlook on gold stocks...
to say the least:
* Call yourself a believer. Gold is going much higher. The performance of gold stocks is probably about to stun the gold community with a powerful up move during what is seasonally the worst time of the year. The underlying reality is there is not enough gold. I think junior mining shares are a near “slam dunk”, for the rest of 2011!
* On Monday price fell hard and then bounced right back. Expect this type of strength and volatility to increase in coming months. Notice where the bounce took place, right on the volume based support (VBS). This move is a volume-powered move, and foretells of new highs coming.
* Get ready for the greatest short covering rally in decades. It will light your hair on fire, or at least the hair of those who are short gold stocks. John Embry talks about the invisible hand. I think sellers simply overwhelm buyers, and these lower prices are nothing more than a gift to you from them!
* I stand on the facts; gold stocks are absolutely the greatest bargain on the street. I am accumulating the mining shares, and I issued a new buy was issued on GDX on Monday. Price plunged and closed dramatically higher on the day, a very bullish move.
* As the sideways grind has continued for over the last six months I have continued to trade these shares with my signals. Volatility has been your friend, not your enemy. That friendship is set to increase!
* I am confident that my GDX target of $72 will be hit. The target is based upon my SFS Gold Stock Ratio. From there I am looking for $80.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt042211.html
pressure SLW to up dividend - call & e-mail...
one way for silver and gold stocks to outsmart their shorters and doubters is to either up their dividends or start paying one - SLW needs to take the lead.
With silver up significantly since they announced a dividend - it's time for them to tie the dividend amount to a formula that accounts for silver spot price and company profits.
Now - investors need to put pressure on them to do so IMO.
one way for silver and gold stocks...
to outsmart their shorters and doubters is to either up their dividends or start paying one - look for SLW to up their dividend and start a trend.
Now - investors need to put pressure on them to do so IMO.
Jim Sinclair...
wise words???
Dear Jim,
As gold and silver continue bull runs, do you have any concern the Comex may invoke extraordinary measures prohibiting any new long positions? This was done to force liquidation of the Hunt Brothers silver positions.
There is a lot of speculation some bullion banks are trapped in heavy short positions. Because you were personally involved in resolving the Hunt Brothers/Comex issues, we CIGAs would greatly appreciate your views on this subject.
CIGA Doug
Dear Doug,
That was a unilateral novation of a contract which is illegal under contract law. They got away with it in the 80s but would probably not get away with it now. Really that means nothing to the long that never sees his silver or gold.
Litigation would break the exchange as a subsidiary of a major corporation, in time resulting in the longs and shorts establishing losses and gains on paper in court at the close of the day, a meaningless exercise that would screw the longs and the shorts in bankruptcy. This would cause a run on gold and silver paper delivery ETFs. It would also shift big money into gold and silver shares.
If you really want gold and you hold futures, you had better take delivery soon.
Regards,
Jim