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Let's hope he loses. He will try to grab the money.
Even my relatives are laughing as they hear some of our politicking.
I thought they paid their money to Trump this way to keep it legal.
Sold HWM.
It can be worthwhile to study the trading pattern of a stock we like to trade. Some spike in a morning and some late in the day.
Re opened STRL with 600 shares at 148.66.
Sold NVDA 10 Puts.
Trimmed LLY at 938.9 for a $10 per share gain on a 100.
Round tripped HCA, sold PGR and added: CSGS, STRL, QFIN.
SpotGamma Founder Discusses How The Fed's Next Move And Expiring Derivatives Could Spark Market Turbulence
BENZINGA 9:48 AM ET 9/20/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
NVDA 117.24down -0.63 (-0.5345%)
QUOTES AS OF 10:12:28 AM ET 09/20/2024
The U.S. equity market stands at a critical crossroads, SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba says.
The convergence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the September expiration of derivatives positions may trigger a scenario similar to last month's turbulence when highly leveraged positions in currencies, stocks, and options unraveled.
"This setup mirrors what we saw on August 1st," Kochuba told SpotGamma subscribers. "Downside volatility may be in excess of what the market is pricing due to the twin triggers of negative gamma and correlation spasms."
Kochuba, known for his analyses and forecasting of markets through the lens of options positioning, shared his journey with Benzinga a few years ago. He returned to discuss how SpotGamma's new tools are helping both retail and institutional traders navigate complex market conditions.
The former derivatives broker and portfolio manager evaluates metrics like gamma—the sensitivity of option prices to movements in the underlying market. He also provides valuable insight into how market makers manage risk and affect outcomes.
"With the surge in options trading, many banks now acknowledge that options volumes have surpassed stock volumes in significance," Kochuba noted. "For those who don't trade options, it's still critical to watch their flows, as they provide insight into potential market moves."
In late July, Kochuba highlighted the risks posed by declining correlations and the growing concentration of indexes like the S&P 500 among their largest components, such as Nvidia Corporation(NVDA) .
"The juice was squeezed out of these trades," he told subscribers. "As stocks like Nvidia(NVDA), Apple, and Microsoft started to stall, they were a drag on the S&P 500. If traders began selling off these large names, it would pressure the index due to their outsized influence."
Following July's rotation out of large-cap tech, AI, and the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks into riskier sectors, traders shifted strategies, moving from betting on market upside through call options to buying put options to hedge against and bet on potential declines.
"The only way to unwind heavy concentration and correlation was for the S&P 500 to drop, which it did, and the VIX to spike," Kochuba recalled. "On August 2, we told subscribers it was one of the ugliest setups we'd seen, and there was no reason to hold stocks or be short options."
Despite a quick market recovery, Kochuba warns that volatility risks persist. Money allocated to the trades that unraveled in August (i.e., short positions on the S&P 500 and VIX) has grown. This was driven by renewed confidence in the market rebound.
"This feels like the early days of Volmageddon in 2017," Kochuba added, referencing concerns raised by pundits like Marko Kolanovic, who foresee a potential repeat of the volatility crisis. "My biggest concern is the illusion of liquidity. Many short-dated flows that dominate the market disappear when real risk emerges, replaced by record demand elsewhere like VIX call options."
Traders are increasingly betting on or hedging against downside risks by buying put options and selling call options. This limits market upside, Kochuba says. Mid-September is potentially pivotal, with catalysts such as the Fed's interest rate decision triggering further declines.
SpotGamma offers tools like TRACE to help traders monitor such risks. It tracks options hedging and impacts on market direction and volatility.
"We believe TRACE is essential for anyone active in the market," Kochuba said. "It's a new system tracking dealer and market maker exposure, clearly showing market positioning. With this information, we can forecast support, resistance, and market movements because we understand how major players will likely hedge in the days and weeks ahead."
SpotGamma and TRACE gained traction with institutions looking to map out positioning during critical periods when market sentiment can shift rapidly, Kochuba adds.
"We're dedicated to delivering essential insights into how traders express their outlook in the markets, with TRACE offering a clear way to visualize how these flows evolve through the day."
Trump Media shares face potential sell-off as insider selling restrictions lift
REUTERS 2:39 PM ET 9/19/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
DJT 14.8168up -0.8032 (-5.1421%)
SBUX 96.85up +0.73 (+0.7595%)
NVDA 118.5106up +5.1406 (+4.5344%)
QUOTES AS OF 03:03:40 PM ET 09/19/2024
By Medha Singh and Noel Randewich
(Reuters) - While former U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will not sell his $1.7 billion stake in Trump Media(DJT) after restrictions likely expire on Thursday, other insiders could soon cash in their gains.
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is 57% owned by the Republican presidential candidate who told reporters last Friday that he does not plan to sell his shares.
Other major stakeholders who could soon sell their shares include United Atlantic Ventures and Patrick Orlando, whose fund, ARC Global Investments II, sponsored the blank-check company that merged with Trump Media(DJT) in March. The two own a combined 11% of Trump Media(DJT), according to a company filing.
"Even if Trump doesn't, it would be interesting if other insiders begin selling because that would be a clue as to what they think his mindset is about selling," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
Trump Media (DJT) insiders could sell their shares as early as after the bell on Thursday if the stock ends the regular trading session at or above $12, according to a provision in the company's prospectus.
Shares were last down 4% at $15, extending sharp losses in recent weeks fueled by worries about the end of so-called lock-up period related to its stock market debut in March.
Trump and other insiders, including Chief Operating Officer Andrew Northwall, Chief Technology Officer Vladimir Novachki and director Donald Trump Jr., did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment on their plans after the lock-up expires.
Trump Media (DJT) did not respond to a request for a comment.
The size of ARC's stake in Trump Media(DJT) is in dispute. A Delaware judge this week ruled ARC Global should receive 8.19 million shares of Trump Media(DJT), more than the roughly 7 million shares that the company has said that ARC was entitled to.
Separately, Truth Social cofounders Andy Litinsky and Wes Moss have also sued TMTG for damages for preventing them from selling their stock sooner.
Orlando and Moss did not immediately reply to requests for comment, while Litinsky could not be reached for a comment.
Newly listed companies often see pressure on their stocks ahead of the end of their lock-up period, when insiders become free to sell their often considerable stakes.
Trump Media (DJT), which operates the Truth Social app, saw its value balloon to nearly $10 billion following its Wall Street debut, lifted by retail traders and traders who see it as a speculative bet on his chances of securing a second four-year term as president.
However, after reaching that peak, Trump Media(DJT) shares have lost most of their value, with declines accelerating in recent weeks after President Joe Biden gave up his reelection bid on July 21, and Trump lost a lead in opinion polls ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election to Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. Betting markets now show Harris with a modest advantage over Trump in a tight race.
Trump Media's (DJT) revenue is equivalent to two Starbucks(SBUX) coffee shops, and strategists say its $3 billion stock market value is detached from its day-to-day business.
Its stock is trading at the equivalent of over 1,000 times its revenue, far exceeding the valuation of even AI superstar Nvidia(NVDA), which recently traded at 24 times its revenue.
"The market couldn't absorb even a partial stake sale without some material damage to the stock," Sosnick said.
"Ultimately a lot will hinge on whether (Trump) keeps his word on not selling while the longer term prospects of the company are completely dependent upon his electoral prospects."
Insiders Stake as % of outstanding
TMTG shares
Donald Trump 56.6%
United Atlantic 5.5%
Ventures llc
ARC Global 5.5%
Investments
Phillip Juhan 0.2%
Devin Nunes 0.06%
Scott Glabe 0.01%
(Reporting by Noel Randewich and Medha Singh; Additional reporting by Lance Tupper and Tom Hals; Editing by Megan Davies and Diane Craft)
Opened RMBS and sold ATAT and more MHO.
A big rally one day will often succumb to profit taking late in the day or the next morning, by people who do not believe trees do not grow to the sky.
I am selling into this profitable bounce on the good news. Some of the future news is getting built into the averages that the Fed will do more cuts this year and early next year again.
Bought back NVDA 15 Puts, sold PAM.
Added CRNC, SN, MHO, LYTS, PGR, FMBH.
Sold SPOT for a $20 per share gain.
Yesterday was a good day for adding positions, although it is not too late today.
Near the close sold more NVDA puts.
Sold LYTS.
Sold BPOP for 3.5% on 500 shares.
A 50bp cut. Probably 25 in November followed by a 50 in December.
I sold ILMN, ISRG and bought back 10 Puts in NVDA.
Round tripped ALX and SN, plan on buying both back a few dollars lower....today.
In the past when the Fed cut rates the market was up a year later. However, today we and especially near the election date we could see much volatility.....with several buying opportunities.
Closed KRO and opened: SN, ALX, JSAIY and BPOP.
Sold NVDA 5 Puts.
He is seeking attention all the time, he craves it, just like another one related to Tesla.
The markets are in a waiting mode and most people are not committing to large positions a day before the rate cut.
I made a few small trades. Bought back NVDA 20 Puts and just now sold 5. Also sold LMT 3 Puts.
Closed for nice gains: STRL, NYT, OFG. For no gain: CAJPY.
Opened positions in: PGR, FIS.
Closed MU and sold ROAD.
A few of the trades this morning. Round trip in NVDA 10 Puts, bought back LMT 3 Puts. Sold ET. Trimmed MU for a loss and DNBBY for even.
Added: LLY, OPRA, DVA, EGO, ILMN.
Closed BP for a loss.
They need to re think what the Soviet Union became economically under their "leader" Stalin. If you want to play/trade with the world sooner or later you have to play by the common rules they go by.
Even Orban will learn this someday. Faster if Putin fails.
A word of caution, the rate cut next week could be a "Sell the News" event. Since we are rallying into the news, who is left to buy to keep the market going higher in the very short term.
After Friday my cash position increased 25% to near 50% and I will tread softly into the Fed's news day.
The Q4 is the strongest Q for the election year, so I will be buying the dips and buying with both hands the bigger pull backs.
Bought back ET 50 Puts for a 25% gain.
Last trade of the week: AIRI sold after 8 days for 15%.
Closed TSM for a slight gain, but it is now average and I do not like to keep average ranked stocks in the portfolios. In addition if an earnings report is a negative surprise my motto is to sell ASAP, even if not the first day, but hopefully into the second day's bounce.
Thank you CNBC. One of the four "Final Trades" that was mentioned and the stock moved up fast. It was on my sell list anyway so just tracked it and then sold the 500 shares.
Also, closed VZLA.
The market had been weakening for the last hour and I have been selling several positions: MRX, DEC, SBSI, CARG, OPRA, GLDD mostly.
Sold MTW 30 Calls and NVDA 10 Puts.
SPX is climbing above 5630 and that is a strong sign, especially if it can hold at the close.
This morning added: PAM, BVS.
Sold BMBL 25 Covered Calls.
We have a nice rally, when it starts fading later in the day I will be selling into it.
Just to state the obvious, not all indicators work for all stocks. I made many paper trades to find the ones that work for my positions before actual trades.
In addition the trading portfolio is updated and fine tuned monthly. Adjusted for back testing, historical considerations as well as macro and world economy-political current situations, and not the least for Seasonality.
Added CM and SBSI, this morning.
Sold HCA.
Took a 30% haircut on 20 MU shares. It is getting a couple of downgrades.
It is giving signs of rolling over sold at 41.31.
I plan on buying back the shares sold and a few hundred more in SFM on a bigger dip, cc. 4% from where I sold them.
Watching AFRM moving up fast in a slow day.