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Looks like the daily 100 SMA which was once support is now acting like resistance. I believe the new support will be around 212
JMO of course!
I am very happy that TA is on our side this time.
Right now market is in full bear mode. Time to take profits!
Those puts are looking real good
Very interesting indeed
Crazy move downwards on the S&P Futures
Glad I´m still holding puts, may sell them tomorrow :)
Wow! This is beautiful! Those puts are starting to look sexy although yesterday there were looking fairly ugly XD
Glad you were able to sell those calls on time :)
Enjoy the weekend!
Food for thought. Good arguments, it is true that debt has risen crazy high and banks are struggling. Let´s hope policy makers don´t go nuts and suggest cancelling rate hikes or worse return to QE.
GLTU and good trading
Yeah, it hasn´t yet decided either to breakout resistance or breakdown support, just the opposite (sit in the middle)!
The truth is I still have trouble interpreting how fundamentals affect the stockmarket in general. I just know that politics, the FED, banks and the global environment have a significant effect on it and makes things what would seem crazy based solely on TA happen.
Do you think that the drop you are referring to will happen during this earnings season?
SPY is currently trading below the 9 and 27 EMA and it is not yet oversold in Stochastics or Commodity channels oscillators. I am hoping a breakdown of 214 support which would lead us to the 100 day SMA which is around 212.5; after getting to that target I will sell my puts and expect a bounce to buy them back at a discount
JMO of course!
I know, watching the monitor for short term trades can be really exhausting. I remember when trading the stinky pinkies I was on the screen all day and feeling like in a rollercoaster.
I also think a big correction or a crash is coming, just don´t know when; may happen until next year. I just hope I´m able to catch it and make a decent profit
It does look like it wants to return to the 217 area, then there is no telling what will happen immediately after.
Hope you get to sell those calls with a nice profit
I am expecting SPY to fall between the weekly 30 SMA which is around 210 and the daily 100 SMA which is around 212 between october or november and then bounce hard. I believe when that happens the Stochastics and CCI will get oversold.
My plan is to sell the puts when SPY hits that range and then buy them again at a discount when it bounces. Sell again and maybe then go to Mar17 Puts.
I like that the 200 Strike price has a ridiculously enormous open interest and the bid-ask spreads are tight.
Not sure if it´s a good options trading strategy, but sounds fun to me LOL
Sector analysis is a good bet. Didn´t hear about Martin Shkreli
before, sounds like he does some good old fundamental analysis that works.
I´ll check that out
Yeah, sometimes the SPY is unpredictable, but the big correction (or crash) is eventually coming. If it moves higher I might average down the Dec16 puts because right now they are lucking ugly LOL
Bought them at 1.83 and right now they are at 1.7!
Good luck and good trading
I agree. I have come to the conclusion that TA is the main element to consider when trading. Fundamental analysis is far more complicated to interpret correctly.
Good luck to you too!
I like your TA. I´ve started using the 9 and 27 EMA besides simple moving averages, stochastics, Commodity Channels and BBs. Has worked well since I started incorporating them. Thanks for your thoughts.
Thinking the same thing: definitely a major market correction coming, but the big mistery is when...
Hello fellow traders
I´ve read many of you are very skillful with stock and options trading. If anybody would like to give their opinion to these thoughts I´d be glad to know them.
I think the market is way overvalued as it is, I once relied 100% on technical analysis when trading but have learned the hard way that politics, the FED, the banks and the global environment in general have a HUGE impact on the stockmarket.
I believe that in short-medium term there will be a major market correction (if not a crash).
Relatively new to options trading, currently holding 6 SPY 200 Dec16 Puts @1.83
Technically looks like a good play, stochastics buy signal and bullish engulfing candle. Let´s see if it picks up more volume and how it works out tomorrow.
https://swingtradebot.com/equities/DRWI
I´m also holding long-term puts
Market crashes are a part of the market cycle
2001-2008...2016?
The market can´t be manipulated forever even if bullishly biased by the FED, central bank, negative interest rates, oil production freeze at record high levels or whatever.
GLTU
For a brief moment I thought you were going completely insane LOL
I must say I never considered the FED and news providers efforts to pump up a rotten market would be this extreme.
Didn´t they know that P&Ds are forbidden??? !-_-
We are in an overvalued overbought fat market with no real growth on the companies that compose it
The market cycle will eventually unfold even with all the manipulation that´s been going on: they´re only delaying the inevitable.
Just my thoughts
GLTU
How can this fly so high in such pathetic volume?
This gets crazier by the day
I noticed that as well
That is affecting options prices markedly
Anything can happen in this crazy stockmarket. But the way it seems both technically and fundamentally is that today we hit the top. There is brutal resistance above the 205 area (specially at 207.5) and SPY has failed many times to exceed 2015 tops.
"But this time it will be different"...
The rally is over. Now we will see sideways movement before inevitably start trending lower.
"Unless" the FED backs out and decides to cancel rate hikes forever and ever and start pumping stocks again with Quantitative Easing, losing more credibility in the process and enlarging a bubble that will eventually pop outrageous.
That is the only way the Spig will go beyond 210+
JMO of course
I like your charts, keep it up
Markets around the globe are pointing towards umbrella... I mean towards a general downtrend.
Just IMO
Well, this area does look like a top for me... before the general downtrend is resumed. The SPIG will have a slow decline in the next few weeks before falling hard in the second half of the year.
To put things into perspective, let´s remember that markets have cycles, and I believe this bull market has already come to an end: SPY hit an All-Time-High of 116.59 on March 2000 before plunging to 71.4 on September of the same year, and then down to 59.51 on July 2002; followed by a bull market that lasted around 6 years. This bull market lifted SPY up to another All-Time-High of 132.48 on the first half of October 2007, followed by a crash to 71.79 on early October 2008, only followed by a drop to 58.10 on early March 2009. That´s when another bull market began with Quantitative Easing of the FED. SPY hit yet another All-Time-High, this time up to 210.82 on July 2015. Let´s remember that the FED cut out QE on late 2014. Now we are in the 200+ area after dropping to a (temporary) support area of 180.38...
History teaches valuable lessons IMO
GLTA
Nah, this spy is going to hit the 200 in the following days before dying. This is just consolidation for the crazy run yesterday. Holding support at 196-197 before the rally continues to finally end over the 200 area
It looks to me that this spy will eventually visit 200 in the days to come before doing anything else IMO
KICK that 09s ass!!!!!!!!!!!
Support held again successfully
This waiting will come to an end with a beautiful green day!!!
Go LOTE!!!!
That was a nice close!!!
Still thinking today´s beginning of the day action was weird. Tomorrow this goes greeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeen!!!!!! $$$$$$
GO LOTE!!!
There is something weird with today´s trading...Any thoughts?
This is going WILD on monday imo!!!!!
Go LOTE!!!! $$$$$$$$$
We got ourselves a new base, waiting for the bounce!!!!! $$$$$
Looks like it will be a hell of a bounce =D =D =D
BOINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!
GO LOTE!!!
This one looks ready to bounce!!!! $$$$$$$$$$$
Go LOTE!!!!!
Healthy consolidation before next leg up!!! $$$$$$$$$$$
Go XUII!!!
Wait!!!
Calm down fellas!!!
Mr Sharp is a hero that has come to save the world!!!
LOL
It seems to me that TALK hitting $2 is a fact, and there´s a chance of it getting near $3 imo
GLTA and go TALK!!!!!!!! $$$$$$$$
Now THAT´S some nice fat volume we got here
This will be a very interesting day...
Looks to me we´ll be hitting near 1.8s by eod IMO
Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$