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This moves more or less with other refiners who move more or less with the crack spread.
https://www.energystockchannel.com/quotes/?a=chart&ticker=$CRACK321&period=5y&title=5+Years
That said - there are some who believe that small refiners will benefit from the SCOTUS decision re Chevron. This will help both on the RIN purchases but then again this stock is so small - who knows. (somebody does but its not me).
Were you able to get the transcript that became eligible on June 20th? At this point there I have tried and been unable when I call. frustrating
Hey EI-
Hope you remember from 10 years ago on AICPQ and others.
I'm finally coming back around on some cash to invest and came back to this.
Wanted to look to see if I could add shares here - seeing that it trades on the OTC expert exchange. My brokers (Schwab and Fido) both do not allow me to add here. It appears to trade by appointment but do you know any broker who allows this?
Thank you for sharing the links to the lawsuits. I've just gotten into and it looks like I have some light reading primarily on the Harris County website. Thank you.
This is interesting. As of the initial filing this seemed like a probably $1/share as Liabilities were $340M but this shows considerably more.
The $25M of secured debt & the $273m of unsecured debt seems really high and honestly makes little sense imo. Their Q3 filing shows their debt of $230M that they refinance in November for no change in principle but added warrants at no cost. (somebody please check to make sure I'm reading this correct. This seems stupid from the companies side as the market was already pricing in bankruptcy so why give this away.)
The only other item in the unsecured debt should be $43M that was related to the $31M X10 lawsuit (assume the differnce is legal fees for both sides). That means debt (secured and unsecured should be ($230+ 43) = $275 not $298M and then if you are going to count the $94M in liabilities why wouldn't the estate keep the assets
Hey EI and others-
I was talking about some of my weird esoteric investments and thought of this one and did a search for the ticker since my shares still sit with 0 value in my account mocking me. I'm happy to read that there is some movement.
I have done no additional work on this and I'd like to say I'll do some over the weekend but it won't happen as I'm too busy coaching multiple soccer teams.
If I am thinking of this correctly, wouldn't/shouldn't there be 2 assets:
1. The NPV of correct amount the trust should have received from Maverik from 2007-forward plus interest
2. The value of this asset today of what it would sell for in the open market?
Also, for EI or LLnEorBust - how are viewing these filings. I follow some of the links and I get the judgement but I'd like to review the full records...
yep. I have an estimate in my sheet and I own a little bit but was trying to figure out if I should move some of my SYCRF to more of this.
Still doing calcs.
Hey EI-
Is this the same thing at footnote #7 on the recent MORs (page 10 of Docket 2953).
frustrating and unbelievable. Should have been near a $ but they have done nothing for the last 18 months.
I think docket #4345 is more important.
ORDER APPROVING EQUITY DISTRIBUTIONPROCEDURES AND GRANTING RELATED RELIEF
Wanted to stop by and congratulate you guys.
I had to go back and check when I sold out. I sold out a few months after my last posts here in 2012. I'd like to say that I rolled that money into some real winners but I didn't. I used it for a private equity investment that ultimately went bust and after liquidation only got about 10% of my investments back.
Congrats again and hopefully your final liquidation will be large and soon.
i'm in the show me mode. Frankly this thing is at 10x revenue for a business that is growing its topline at 7-10% annually. I was a skeptic back when it was under $2 and only had a starter position. I exited my position when it hit $4.5 and clearly I left a lot on the table.
I couldn't figure out where the ramp was originally coming from last summer and I finally did. What happens when the growth is flat and the story isn't as pretty - is there a run for the exits and $3.00?
I'll be waiting and I expect this company to be aquired in 12-18 months but not at 10x revenue.
Have a small position. I run 2 portfolios. 1 traditional and 1 speculative/special situations/etc. REPR is in the second one. I have a bunch of stock in 2 investments that I was hoping would complete last year/early this year. Both are dragging for no reason which limited my investments in this and a few others.
He was brought in as a consultant in 2015, then a full time employee in 2016 and just got his current position in May 2017. Most of this was done during with the current leadership team.
I have no idea of his skill or qualities but this is not simply cleaning house of prior people who are loyal.
I'm a LT buyer of this company but todays price just hit my automated sell price. Will be looking to buy back around $.50-.55.
Interesting about the warrants. I cannot remember them at all and I don't like it. Its usually somehting I have in my notes on each company.
Guess I'll konw what I'll be doing this weekend (won't get to it before then). Disappointed for sure and does somewhat explain Andy's behavior a little more. In general I like the current mgmt staff they brought and will give them a few quarters but depending on the size of these warrants could change the game materially.
I was not looking for it this morning. I thought it was coming out afterhours since the call is tomorrow. I like usually seeing the 10Q but the press release provides enough to work.
Revenue flat over prior quarter but better margins by 2%.
SG&A are inline but up over the prior quarter. Supposedly driven by increased legal fees and R&D spend.
Nothing too surprising which I guess is good. At a company this size I'd like to see growth both Q over Q and over PY. However we did this same thing where Q3 of 2017 was flat to Q2 2017 and then Q4 was up 7%. I know how hard it is to drive sequential improvement on the top line and I like the comment that they are seeing operating efficiencies. Overall when you take a longer term picture the story is compelling as sales, gross margins and NI both $ and % are up.
I'd like to see a shakeout in the share price to add but I can live with my investment.
I agree with much of what you wrote on this being an expensive and probably distracting endeavor. I also understand why current management wants to do this. Using the corporate shell they probably have deeper pockets than Andy directly and will use time and $ to try and force a settlement.
I get the playbook and when you are a small company its really easy for an audit staff to come in and review the books and find discrepancies or potential issues.
Common ones include stuff like Country Club Memberships, parts of travel, etc. For Selfon he viewed this company as his baby and probably charged some personal items to the business. He also probably worked more than anyone else and didn't charge some stuff to the company since he viewed it as his business. Every small business owner that I know operates this way and REPR is a small business.
I didn't love Selfon as CEO but I'm unimpressed that the current mgmt team is airing this dirty laundry so publicly.
The biggest question that I have raised for many years that holders could go after (and I assume that is what some of today's buyers are planning on doing) is that the $35M of legal costs are too high and burdened unfairly.
Could you get 50M shares for $200k and then sue them and tell them you settle for a $2.5M to get them to move on. (you get $1M).
Like Sylvester I sold a portion to be playing with house money. I now only own 1M shares so even if it was $.25 (which I doubt) or $0.00 I should feel no pain - I will be very disappointed if its a $0 however. I'd have liked to own more but I can't get greedy.
I have a set % of my investments set aside for speculative investments and I'm primarily in a few other stocks waiting for those to settle (one doesn't trade anymore). I was hopeful that it would be done over a year ago (5+ years) and the myriad of twists and turns there make this seem boring. That ones just posted that the final omnibus hearing will be in early November so I assume any payout from that will be in 2019. Sucks.
The next few weeks should be interesting here.
I'm waiting to see if any filings show up on who purchased shares either on friday or today. larger volume than we are used to seeing.
Those filers that are more than 5% would have to declare it within 3 days, no?
Wow is right.
I think people could read the writing on the wall.
There are 7 people on the board. Sealfon (founder), Dr Baker (probably friends with Andy), and Pastreich (who owns the building).
I assume Manko got in once he bought a bunch and got Goldberger to join him. They also probably hired the new CEO and CCO Pettigrew.
What is surprising is that presumably Anderson and Radin came in with Andrew as they have been on board since 2015 and 2016. Clearly they must have been onboard with this as they must have been the ones to side with Goldberger and Manko. I remember when Anderson joined as it seemed like a step up in quality vs prior board members.
This battle is going to cost the company money, time, focus. The good news is that this fight will allow us to really see the playbook for the new team as they have to convince us to side with them as they are behind in ownership of shares.
I don't expect anything over $.20. I however have felt that this easily could be a zero.
***
I know one guy who owns shares in this who works for a HF. Asked if his HF owned it. Nope and he didn't want to have career risk by offering it up as an idea as there is no edge for most people.
I can't add anything beyond what was already written. My guess is that the general framework was completely done before the 2 went alone (or trying to get a bigger cut).
Wait. wait. wait.
I bet we get one more extension into the new year.
I'm invested in another coin flip stock. Difference was the stock went non-tradeable 2 years ago as a lawsuit had to be played out as part of a Chapter 11 BK and some other weird stuff.
The other legal matters are 99% complete and have been done for about 7 weeks at this point. I cannot figure out the delays but legal fees are eating up my returns.
At this point I hope that this is done in before Thanksgiving.
I'm here. Nothing to add. Everything is sealed.
sucks but nothing I can do.
There are plenty of CVRs that do not pay out or pay less or take much longer to pay. That said there is often a good payout for smaller investors because its frankly not worth the time for the larger guys to deploy capital.
That said, I read those two filings from the North Carolina office yesterday. Each is about 2 pages and generally the same. There is no actionable facts in there other than that they came to a full settlement between the state of NC and Emcare. Remember EmCare is not part of our CVR but they are basically a second defendant moving along with us. Its where we got news when John posted last December about that settlement.
To me its just another signpost that things are wrapping up. I'm hoping that this is the first of many breadcrumbs and hopefully a few of them have some more details.
*************************************************************
I was going to listen to the status meeting on the 20th that got cancelled. The notification of the cancellation was not surprising to me as I it came 2 days after I registered to listen to the call and 1 day after an associate from the judge called me and wanted to know my relationship and interest in the case.
I have no proof but I believe that the judge did have a scheduled call with the lawyers but it was private as I never got a cancellation of the meeting only a cancellation of the phone setup. (You usually get 1 for each).
Like others I expect the Sept 4 release to be vague but I regularly check nightly to see if there are any new filings as I expect finalization before the end of Q3.
Agreed. Somebody is autobuying anything below .025.
I saw that yesterday. This was the only thing. The only page of the paper filing is just what you see there.
Nothing else has been filed. The Sept 4 update should be provide color on to the timing.
Don't know. You are damn fast however to post this.
I was actually just thinking about flying out to see this meeting and see what I could learn. Am surprised there is no rescheduled date.
Simply could be a lawyer on vacation but there are 92 interested parties in this which means lots of legal council and cases usually move really slow in the summer. Wonder if there is a holdup in review of the agreement or something more.
What's a few more weeks?
better than what I was initially expecting. Margins are good. Operating expenses seem reasonable so more sales means mores is falling to the bottom line.
All of this is good. They state in the comments that the sales increase is due to more needle (razorblade) sales.
R&D is flat vs Q2 last year but it dropped to almost nothing in Q3, Q4 and Q1. In the comments it states that they hired an engineer. So it appears that their R&D expense is just how they allocate an engineer.
Not much for me to be critical of.
I've emailed the compnay with a few similar questions that I thought would be good for a commonly asked questions section or instead of doing an analyst call I've often thought that they would get better questions by simply releasing a statement and a written Q&A based on questions they have collected from analysts and private investors.
Constelllation Software up in canada did this recently and I was suprised t how much more info I've learned about them from this model vs the standard call and 2-3 questions by a few analysts. For a company like REPR they may not want to hold a call and have no analysts show up as it looks bad or you get a crazy investor that you can't get off the line.
I agree with you on the business model. I think that is what they are doing today. The problem is that they don't break out the revenue (and ideally COGS) between the pumps and the needle sets.
There are 2 things in play for each of the QuiTam cases.
There is the settlement with the DOJ and then there are settlements with the respective states for each of the individual cases. However the vast majority of the states have been involved in the mass qui-tam settlement with the DOJ and most of the global settlement will(should) cover the settlment with most of the states.
The 2 cases want to move their state settlment out of the qui-tam and do it seperately. This is the what 2 groups asked the judge to rule on a month ago and he asked for a brief to do so. He has not ruled to either let them out from the state settlement or not.
That said, even with this global settlement not all state settlments are included and are being handled concurrently.
thanks for sharing. I would expect that this meeting will be short. I'd also bet that settlement will not be made public right away but this will allow the judge to rule on what to do with the 2 cases. My guess is that he punts and forces them to stay in.
That was about TSLA. Sorry. My last post on that topic.
sorry buddy. This is why I stayed out. Everything you thought was confirmed in the filing. Cash is dwindling, losses continue to mount.
they either have to dilute hard or file BK in the next 2-3 months but I'm still afraid of squeezes.
I've tried to look up the cases at the states level to see if I could find anything and I've been unsuccessful in finding anything.
There shouldn't be anything there but I was hoping for a simple file showing a hold with a name in a state office that I could call. nothing.
I'm convinced something is leaking out. This volume over the last 10 days is a sign that somebody knows something. Its steady and consistent.
My math is similar to yours but since they didn't say anything about a profit I am hesitant.
Frankly, I'm most interested to see the margins and the SG&A lines. If they really think they have something than I wan to see it really show up in a big way in SG&A expenses.
I don't think Andy went willingly. I also think it probably needs to happen. I want to see the Quarterly filing and like others I expect it to show no profit even though revenue growth was ok. (Am I crazy for thinking that Revenue growth should be atleast in the 20s after last year. You are looking at 11% and 14% for the last 2Qs
For them to not include any gross profit #s is very disappointing.
Based on historical filings it should come out a week later though there is no confirmation on their website.
I expect that this company will be sold in the next 9-12 months although I don't know at what multiple because even the current multiples seem high.