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<<<PLEASE READ IMPORTANT!
Everyone who has these worthless warrants needs to write a letter to the court before it is too late.
When these guys steal 100% of your $$$$, you will only have yourself to blame. A short letter takes 20 minutes, and a couple of bucks to mail using certified mail.
TOGETHER WE CAN STOP THESE THIEVES!
Here are the addresses and suggestions on what to include in the letter.>>>
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=107879&tid=342&mid=343&tof=3&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
I SENT A LETTER. THE LAST 2 LETTERS FROM STOCKHOLDERS ARE "JOINDERS" TO UST OBJECTION. MAYBE UST IS GETTING READY TO GO AFTER FRAUD COMMITTED BY THE 2 HEDGE FUNDS AND HOULIHAN.
http://www.aventineinfo.com/1009_11214.pdf
http://www.aventineinfo.com/1010_11214.pdf
WRITE SO THE JUDGE KNOWS WE UNDERSTAND THE LAW WAS BROKEN AND WE GOT SCREWED BECAUSE OF BACKDOOR DEALINGS
GLTA
WSJ article yesterday about AVR advisors conflicts of interest with hedge fund bondholders
http://blogs.wsj.com/bankruptcy/2010/05/28/houlihan-lokey-challenged-over-disclosure-in-aventine-case/
http://blogs.wsj.com/bankruptcy/2010/05/28/houlihan-lokey-challenged-over-disclosure-in-aventine-case/tab/comments/
GLTA
AVR's restructuring advisor has big conflicts with hedge funds who stole our stock from us. US Trustee is making the conflict case for us by objecting to the advisors fees.
http://www.aventineinfo.com/1004_11214.pdf
If you have warrants, write to BK judge and complain about the conflict and tainted POR the advisor put together to benefit their hedge fund/bondholder buddys and screw us. If enough stockholders write, the BK court might be forced to redo the POR.
Addresses to send complaint letter to at this Yahoo page
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=107879&tid=342&mid=343&tof=1&rt=2&frt=1&off=1
GLTA
Any level 2 people here know if AVRW trading is suspended? Seems like nothing moving in a week. Also not finding how many shares of AVRW there are? Not getting any answers from broker either. Thanks.
GLTA
Shares bought before or after the BK are all the same class of shares. All common stock to receive warrants according to POR. Warrants have a strike price of 40.96.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=webchart&btn=s_ok&ihsymbol=&ihpagelist=Quote&idtddm=&symbol=USOTC%3AAVRW&s_ok=Get+Chart&period=2&drawmode=2&size=15&volume=1
IMHO if company is way undervalued in POR, "new" stock will trade up and the warrants will have value. Do some DD on the enterprise value and PPS with 8.55M new shares. The old analysts and institutional investors that bailed in BK are still following this story.
GLTA
Bonds above par again today even on relatively smaller trades
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS INC Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
02/18/2010 13:06:35 T 225000 100.625 0.000 N @ S
02/18/2010 12:56:02 C 225000 100.000 0.000 N @ S
02/18/2010 12:56:02 T 225000 100.000 0.000 N Z D
02/18/2010 12:56:02 T 225000 100.000 0.000 N @ S
GLTA
Large bond trades continuing to execute above par. Smaller trades are also moving up in price.
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS INC Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
02/10/2010 15:34:00 T 1MM+ 100.500 0.000 N N S
02/10/2010 15:33:23 T 1MM+ 100.000 0.000 N N B
02/10/2010 14:26:57 T 6000 96.300 0.000 N @ B
02/10/2010 14:26:57 T 6000 96.300 0.000 N @ D
02/10/2010 14:26:57 T 6000 96.300 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 15:41:09 T 6000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 15:41:06 T 6000 94.834 0.000 N @ B
02/09/2010 15:41:06 T 6000 95.667 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 15:41:06 T 6000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 14:46:24 T 20000 95.785 0.000 N @ B
02/09/2010 14:46:24 T 20000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 14:11:47 T 3000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 14:11:47 T 3000 96.000 0.000 N @ B
02/09/2010 14:11:47 W 3000 95.600 0.000 N Z B
02/09/2010 13:42:23 T 5000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
02/09/2010 13:42:23 T 5000 96.000 0.000 N @ B
02/09/2010 13:42:16 T 5000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
GLTA
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS INC Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
02/08/2010 14:59:05 T 5000 94.050 0.000 N @ B
02/08/2010 14:59:05 T 5000 94.050 0.000 N @ D
02/08/2010 14:04:51 T 1MM+ 101.000 0.000 N @ S
02/08/2010 14:04:46 T 1MM+ 101.000 0.000 N @ S
02/08/2010 14:04:40 T 1MM+ 100.500 0.000 N @ B
02/08/2010 12:18:19 T 4000 96.000 0.000 N @ B
Check out this Aventine case docket
http://www.aventineinfo.com/738_11214.pdf
GLTA
The calm before the storm.
Yeah - interesting trading today. The pits followed by the last 20 minutes before closing.
GLTA
If you check the later closing prices in the bonds - after my post - you will see there were some small volume trades at lower prices.
GLTA
Todays bond trades so far
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
02/02/2010 14:00:42 T 1MM+ 101.500 0.000 N @ S
02/02/2010 14:00:02 T 1MM+ 101.500 0.000 N @ S
02/02/2010 13:59:26 T 1MM+ 101.500 0.000 N @ S
02/02/2010 13:58:33 T 1MM+ 101.000 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 13:55:22 T 1MM+ 101.000 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 13:47:27 T 10000 95.550 0.000 N @ D
02/02/2010 13:47:27 T 10000 94.500 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 13:47:27 T 10000 95.550 0.000 N @ D
02/02/2010 13:35:11 T 5000 94.310 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 13:35:11 T 5000 95.110 0.000 N @ D
02/02/2010 12:48:02 T 50000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
02/02/2010 12:48:02 T 50000 95.632 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 12:41:53 T 10000 95.300 0.000 N @ D
02/02/2010 12:41:53 T 10000 94.675 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 12:41:53 T 10000 95.300 0.000 N @ D
02/02/2010 11:15:52 T 13000 93.900 0.000 N @ B
02/02/2010 11:15:52 T 13000 94.000 0.000 N @ D
Big bond trades are up to 101.50 now. Any thoughts/comments?
GLTA
Mid volume bond trades today at 98 to 98.1 then trending down to 93.95 on smaller trades
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
02/01/2010 16:07:51 T 10000 93.950 0.000 N @ B
02/01/2010 16:07:51 T 10000 94.050 0.000 N @ D
02/01/2010 15:53:53 T 7000 93.639 0.000 N @ B
02/01/2010 15:53:53 T 7000 94.050 0.000 N @ D
02/01/2010 15:41:19 T 37000 98.100 0.000 Y @ S
02/01/2010 15:39:46 T 37000 98.000 0.000 N @ D
02/01/2010 14:44:44 T 30000 98.100 0.000 Y @ S
02/01/2010 14:44:29 T 30000 98.000 0.000 N @ D
GLTA
Post copied from Yahoo Board
Aventine Stockholders,
Here is a line-by-line description of how I filled out my equity voting ballot, which I received in Saturdays mail:
BALLOT "ITEM 1"
1) I checked the REJECT THE PLAN
box.
2) On the line that says "Equity Interest Holder", I printed my name exactly as it appears on the sticker at the lower left cover of the ballot. If it is a joint account, put both names on the account exactly as they appear on the sticker.
3) On the "Number of Shares" line, I filled in the exact number of shares as listed on my account statement.
4) On the "Tax Identification Number" line, I put my social security number. If it is a joint account, put both social security numbers.
BALLOT "ITEM 2"
1) I checked the box in order to NOT CONSENT to the release and injunction. This is because I decided NOT to give up any of my rights to further actions against this Plan or the Debtors.
BALLOT "ITEM 3" ACKNOWLEDGEMENT LINES
1) I printed my name on the top line. For joint accounts I would print both names on the account.
2) I signed above the signature line. For joint accounts, both account holders should sign.
3) I wrote "N.A." on the line for "Authorized Agent" because I have no authorized agent.
4) I wrote "N.A." on the line for "Name of Institution" because I have no authorized agent and I am not an "institution". I am an individual investor.
5) I printed my street address on the "Street Address" line, making sure to match the address on the sticker at lower left.
6) I printed my city, state, ZIP on the next line, making sure to match the information on the sticker at lower left.
7) I wrote my telephone number on the next line.
8) I put the correct date on the "Date Completed" line.
After filling in all of the above, I made sure to make a copy for my records.
Then I put the ballot in the envelope that came with it and filled in my return address in case it gets lost in the mail.
I made sure not to remove the sticker from the ballot, because someone will be checking the information I filled in against the information on that sticker.
Thats it. I will mail it Monday, so that if it gets lost in the mail it might come back to me before the voting deadline.
Everyone needs to decide how they want to vote, but to me it is absolutely obvious the POR is a lame attempt to steal the equity in Aventine from shareholders.
Lets get it rejected by a landslide. We can then work towards getting an euity committee going and developing a new POR that is fair and equitable to all stakeholders, including stockholders.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
Anyone who hasn't sent a complaint to the SEC and the Trustee, please just send a short note stating your disappointment with the POR. It can even be hand written if you want - nothing fancy. See other posts on this board for a more detailed discussion of why this is very important.
Thanks everyone.
And someone is picking up shares at a great price:) IMHO
GLTA
All the big bond trades at 98 and 98.5 now
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
01/26/2010 12:34:09 T 250000 98.500 0.000 N @ S
01/26/2010 12:34:03 T 250000 98.500 0.000 N @ S
01/26/2010 12:33:55 T 500000 98.000 0.000 N @ B
01/25/2010 16:44:22 T 25000 97.250 0.000 N @ S
01/25/2010 12:46:00 T 20000 94.000 0.000 N @ D
01/25/2010 12:46:00 T 20000 93.750 0.000 N @ B
01/25/2010 12:42:00 T 20000 94.000 0.000 N @ D
01/25/2010 11:15:29 T 1MM+ 98.500 0.000 N @ S
01/25/2010 11:15:23 T 1MM+ 98.500 0.000 N @ S
01/25/2010 11:15:14 T 500000 98.000 0.000 N @ B
01/25/2010 11:15:09 T 1MM+ 98.000 0.000 N @ B
So far today big bond trades at 98 and 98.5, little bond trades lower at 93.75 and 94.
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
01/25/2010 12:46:00 T 20000 94.000 0.000 N @ D
01/25/2010 12:46:00 T 20000 93.750 0.000 N @ B
01/25/2010 12:42:00 T 20000 94.000 0.000 N @ D
01/25/2010 11:15:29 T 1MM+ 98.500 0.000 N @ S
01/25/2010 11:15:23 T 1MM+ 98.500 0.000 N @ S
01/25/2010 11:15:14 T 500000 98.000 0.000 N @ B
01/25/2010 11:15:09 T 1MM+ 98.000 0.000 N @ B
GLTA
Bond activity in the last 3 hours of trading was huge today. We now have touched new highs post-BK.
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
Execution
Date Time Status Quantity Price Yield Comm. Modifier 2nd Modifier Special As Of Reporting Party Side
01/21/2010 16:05:50 T 25000 97.000 0.000 N @ D
01/21/2010 16:00:54 T 1000000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
01/21/2010 16:00:15 T 1000000 95.750 0.000 Y @ B
01/21/2010 15:45:24 T 1000000 96.500 0.000 N @ S
01/21/2010 15:45:16 T 1000000 96.000 0.000 N @ B
01/21/2010 15:41:47 T 10000 95.050 0.000 N @ S
01/21/2010 15:31:03 T 10000 95.000 0.000 N @ D
01/21/2010 15:31:03 T 10000 95.000 0.000 N @ D
01/21/2010 15:24:07 T 541000 96.250 0.000 N @ S
01/21/2010 15:20:53 T 541000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
01/21/2010 14:41:34 T 400000 96.500 0.000 N @ S
01/21/2010 14:38:00 T 400000 95.900 0.000 Y @ B
01/21/2010 14:38:00 T 400000 96.000 0.000 N @ D
01/21/2010 14:38:00 W 400000 95.937 0.000 Y Z B
01/21/2010 13:42:51 T 1MM+ 96.500 0.000 N @ S
01/21/2010 13:42:37 T 1MM+ 96.000 0.000 N @ B
01/21/2010 13:42:14 T 1000000 96.000 0.000 N @ B
01/21/2010 13:42:14 C 1000000 96.000 0.000 N @ B
01/21/2010 13:15:00 T 39000 90.500 0.000 N @ S
GLTA
Very quiet trading today. IMHO opportunity is still knocking.
GLTA
Close to high, but not yet. The high post-BK filing was 96 on some small trades plus 1,000,000 trade on Dec 9. Lows were around 12.
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
12/09/2009 14:23:06 T 4000 88.000 0.000 N @ B
12/09/2009 14:23:06 T 4000 88.000 0.000 N @ D
12/09/2009 14:13:31 T 1000000 96.000 0.000 N @ S
12/09/2009 14:13:25 T 1000000 95.000 0.000 N @ B
12/09/2009 12:53:47 T 6000 87.500 0.000 N @ B
12/09/2009 12:53:47 T 6000 87.500 0.000 N @ D
12/09/2009 12:29:00 T 100000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
12/09/2009 12:28:11 T 100000 90.055 0.000 N @ S
12/09/2009 10:57:36 T 60000 96.000 0.000 N N B
12/09/2009 10:57:06 T 120000 96.000 0.000 N N B
12/09/2009 10:56:53 T 10000 96.000 0.000 N N B
12/09/2009 10:56:45 T 10000 96.000 0.000 N N B
12/09/2009 10:38:38 T 200000 96.000 0.000 N N B
12/09/2009 10:38:02 T 100000 96.000 0.000 N N B
GLTA
Edit - high in bonds post-BK was 4 days after the POR came out. POR was on PACER on Dec 5.
Bonds
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS
Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/19/2010 14:21:17 T 1MM+ 92.000 0.000 N @ S
01/19/2010 14:21:14 T 1MM+ 91.750 0.000 N @ B
01/15/2010 14:50:43 T 1MM+ 91.000 0.000 N @ B
01/15/2010 14:31:54 T 1000000 91.500 0.000 N @ S
01/15/2010 14:08:04 T 1000000 92.375 0.000 N @ S
01/15/2010 14:07:18 T 1000000 92.000 0.000 N @ B
01/15/2010 13:59:12 T 1000000 92.000 0.000 N @ D
GLTA
IMHO opportunity knocking again for AVRNQ. Check 3 mo & 6 mo charts. Crush margins up after drop in corn triggered by Jan 12 WASDE report.
GLTA
Edit - have 57M gallon operating dry mill in Pekin, 3 yrs old, and 50M gallon dry mill in Aurora. Total operating now is 207M. Total 85 to 90% finished is 226M. When the new plants are finished they will be at 433M gal/yr.
GLTA
Valero bought 2 non-expandable dry mill plants December 15 for $0.91/gallon.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201001141709dowjonesdjonline000670&title=valero-closes-purchases-on-two-ethanol-plants
The 2 plants are each 110M production. AVRs unfinished dry mills are each 113M gallon plants and built to be expandable to double capacity in future.
The 100M gallon Pekin wet mill is worth way more than a dry mill.
GLTA
Bonds holding/strong today on 5 large trades so far
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/15/2010 14:50:43 T 1MM+ 91.000 0.000 N @ B
01/15/2010 14:31:54 T 1000000 91.500 0.000 N @ S
01/15/2010 14:08:04 T 1000000 92.375 0.000 N @ S
01/15/2010 14:07:18 T 1000000 92.000 0.000 N @ B
01/15/2010 13:59:12 T 1000000 92.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 15:33:14 T 1000 91.000 0.000 N N S
01/14/2010 15:29:00 T 1000 91.000 0.000 N N D
01/14/2010 14:43:56 T 250000 90.250 0.000 N @ S
01/14/2010 13:08:10 T 10000 88.000 0.000 N @ B
01/14/2010 13:08:10 T 10000 89.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 12:10:57 T 35000 90.050 0.000 N @ S
01/14/2010 11:35:47 T 5000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 11:35:47 T 5000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 10:03:39 T 250000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 09:45:12 T 30000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 09:45:12 T 30000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
GLTA
Bonds at EOD above .90
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/14/2010 15:33:14 T 1000 91.000 0.000 N N S
01/14/2010 15:29:00 T 1000 91.000 0.000 N N D
01/14/2010 14:43:56 T 250000 90.250 0.000 N @ S
01/14/2010 13:08:10 T 10000 88.000 0.000 N @ B
01/14/2010 13:08:10 T 10000 89.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 12:10:57 T 35000 90.050 0.000 N @ S
01/14/2010 11:35:47 T 5000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 11:35:47 T 5000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 10:03:39 T 250000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 09:45:12 T 30000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 09:45:12 T 30000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/13/2010 16:13:12 T 190000 89.825 0.000 N @ S
GLTA
Bonds holding around .90 so far today
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/14/2010 11:35:47 T 5000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 11:35:47 T 5000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 10:03:39 T 250000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 09:45:12 T 30000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
01/14/2010 09:45:12 T 30000 90.000 0.000 N @ D
That is exactly right. BKs always have many twists and turns before a company emerges. Its never easy, even for risk tolerant investors. For others the grind and uncertainty is just too much stress. When news comes out that looks bad, those who don't follow the BK process closely might panic sell. Others are always waiting for the opportunity to pick up more shares and wait on the process to develop further. Its sure not a boring way to invest.
GLTA
Just one bond trade late today. Bond traders might be waiting now.
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/13/2010 16:13:12 T 190000 89.825 0.000 N @ S
01/12/2010 16:03:03 T 57000 88.000 0.000 N @ D
01/12/2010 14:22:19 T 4000 86.500 0.000 N @ B
01/12/2010 14:22:19 T 4000 86.500 0.000 N @ D
01/12/2010 12:01:24 T 60000 86.150 0.000 N @ B
01/12/2010 12:01:24 T 60000 86.550 0.000 N @ D
01/12/2010 10:36:54 T 13000 85.846 0.000 Y @ B
01/12/2010 10:36:54 T 13000 86.500 0.000 N @ D
01/12/2010 10:36:54 T 13000 86.500 0.000 N @ D
01/12/2010 10:35:31 T 1MM+ 87.500 0.000 N @ B
01/12/2010 10:02:13 T 1MM+ 88.000 0.000 N @ S
01/12/2010 09:52:15 T 1MM+ 87.500 0.000 N @ B
01/12/2010 09:50:00 T 1MM+ 87.500 0.000 N @ D
GLTA
Todays bond trading activity
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/11/2010 15:43:54 T 1000000 88.000
01/11/2010 15:43:47 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/11/2010 15:43:42 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/11/2010 15:43:38 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/11/2010 15:43:33 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/11/2010 14:15:20 T 15000 89.750
01/11/2010 14:15:16 T 15000 89.883
01/11/2010 13:56:17 T 21000 89.750
01/11/2010 13:56:14 T 21000 89.845
01/11/2010 13:52:00 T 3000 89.500
01/11/2010 13:51:01 T 25000 90.000
01/11/2010 13:50:27 T 69000 90.000
01/11/2010 13:07:13 T 15000 86.250
01/11/2010 13:07:13 T 15000 85.250
01/11/2010 11:07:40 T 25000 86.400
01/11/2010 11:07:40 T 25000 86.500
Support level holding at .88 and above on large volume trades
OK, probably the last bond post for today
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/08/2010 16:20:23 T 1MM+ 87.500
01/08/2010 16:15:00 T 1MM+ 87.500
01/08/2010 14:32:55 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/08/2010 14:32:47 T 1000000 88.000
01/08/2010 14:32:40 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/08/2010 14:31:45 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/08/2010 12:33:20 T 34000 86.826
01/08/2010 12:33:20 T 34000 87.000
01/08/2010 12:05:00 T 27000 90.500
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 90.000
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 90.000
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 91.000
Churning is a good word for it but the volumes are huge. Safe to say there is a support level developing in the bonds around .88?
Bond update
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/08/2010 14:32:55 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/08/2010 14:32:47 T 1000000 88.000
01/08/2010 14:32:40 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/08/2010 14:31:45 T 1MM+ 88.000
01/08/2010 12:33:20 T 34000 86.826
01/08/2010 12:33:20 T 34000 87.000
01/08/2010 12:05:00 T 27000 90.500
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 90.000
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 90.000
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 91.000
Bonds back up to .90 this morning on 3 decent trades.
Issue: AREY.GC Description: AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS Coupon Rate: 10.000 Maturity Date: 04/01/2017
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 90.000
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 90.000
01/08/2010 10:36:26 T 60000 91.000
Notice how every time the trades are large, the prices are much higher than the small volume trades? When they broke through .95 less than a month ago those were 1000k trades. These higher bond prices will help Mr. Shirleys argument that the POR grossly understates the value of the enterprise - pages 5 & 7 docket 644.
Ethanol levels in gas are a factor - the 15% blend rate ruling next summer. RFS2 mandated volumes increase 14% this year and 43% by 2015. This years requirement increases from 10.5B gallons in 2009 to 12.0B gallons in 2010. Increases each year until it hits 15B in 2015. If driving picks up discretionary blending may take it past these volumes. The mandates are the minimums required by law.
RFS2 was also counting on cellulosic being much farther along and commercially viable by now - its not even close. The investment dollars for cellulosic are gone and the costs to build commercial scale production are prohibitive. Cellulosics only hope is retail gas going above $4.00 again and staying there for an extended period.
Corn ethanol has been netting good margins the last 6 months. If gas prices continue to go up so will their margins. Valero has bought 1.1B gallons of production capacity in 9 months. They know where ethanol is headed.
GLTA
IMHO these case dockets do the best job of explaining why nobody, including stockholders, can figure out the first POR they submitted.
http://www.aventineinfo.com/644_11214.pdf
http://www.aventineinfo.com/643_11214.pdf
http://www.aventineinfo.com/629_11214.pdf
http://www.aventineinfo.com/628_11214.pdf
http://www.aventineinfo.com/645_11214.pdf
These are all "objections" to the Disclosure Statement in various forms. These objections will be litigated and heard January 13th before Judge Gross. The POR they tried to run through quickly to give away the equity to the bondholders - hoping no one would object to it - is full of flaws and lacks even the most basic information. Some of these objections refer to the DS as "unconfirmable as a matter of law". Hopefully, Judge Gross will see what is going on here and will rule against it. If he does they will be forced to come up with a different POR.
The last 50 minutes of trading today sure was interesting.
GLTA
Post pulled from Yahoo board today with some interesting questions at the end:
Re: OBJECTIONS TO FAULTY POR FILED 6-Jan-10 01:07 pm
Items 10 and 11 quoted from Mr. Shirley’s Objection to the proposed Disclosure Statement (Docket 644):
"10. ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURE WITH RESPECT TO VALUATION. Whether one uses the Debtors’ own cash flows or simply looks to the market for the Debtors’ publicly-traded bonds or equity, there is a strong argument to be made for the Debtors’ solvency. Yet the valuation analysis performed by Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin Capital, Inc. (“Houlihan”) appears to conclude that the Debtors are insolvent. That analysis provides the creditors will receive anything from between lass than one cent to approximately 50 cents on the dollar under the Plan, even though the Debtors’ unsecured bonds were recently trading at roughly 95 cents on the dollar. To enable holders of Equity interests to understand this discrepancy, more information regarding the process undertaken by Houlihan is required.
11. Shirley submits that at a minimum, the Disclosure Statement should set forth some basic information regarding the analysis performed by Houlihan. For example, although the Disclosure Statement provides that Houlihan performed three valuation methodologies (the comparable company analysis, discounted cash flow analysis, and precedent transaction analysis), it fails to set forth the percentage weight ascribed to each methodology. Moreover, the Disclosure Statement fails to reference which comparable companies and precedent transactions were utilized in the analysis and omits anty detailed disclosure of any discounts applied by Houlihan (for example, estimated completion costs of the plants, risk adjustments, and discounts to account for purported control premiums). In particular, with respect to the discounted cash flow analysis, the Disclosure Statement does not include the terminal value used, the multiple for that terminal value, or even the applicable discount rate used to discount the cash flows. Without this basic information, it is impossible for holders of Equity Interests to understand the valuation on which their recovery is based."
Following are some things to think about:
According to the November MOR, so far Houlihan Lokey has billed Aventine over $620,000 in fees and expenses as their "investment advisor". Yet H&L can't even provide the most basic information to back up their faulty "valuation analysis"?
H&L's "work" contained in the DS is an obvious indication they are more concerned about the interests of the unsecured bondholders than the interests of the Debtor (Aventine) and the Debtors estate.
You have to ask yourself: "Why would a supposed "world-class" investment advisor like Houlihan Lokey come up with such an erroneous valuation and omit so much basic information that they know full well should be provided in a Disclosure Statement?
Here is a link to a "Financial Restructuring Workshop" document from a 2004 World Bank seminar held in D.C. written by Alan D. Fragen (the Managing Director, Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin):
http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/li...
Houlihan's managing director, Mr. Fragen, gives his thanks to his colleague James Zukin for his perspectives in the footnote at the bottom of the first page. I have been studying the teaching contained in this document for many months now, and it is indeed very thorough, very understandable, and quite excellent in its content.
My big question is: Why is the valuation Houlihan developed for Aventine an absolute failure (with no documentation or details to substantiate it) compared to what Mr. Fragen taught to other investment professionals in 2004?
Something is truly very wrong with Houlihan's handling of their "advising" responsibility to Aventine and their estate during this BK so far.