Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (fka AVRW)

[biofuel911]

Ethanol levels in gas are a factor - the 15% blend rate ruling next summer. RFS2 mandated volumes increase 14% this year and 43% by 2015. This years requirement increases from 10.5B gallons in 2009 to 12.0B gallons in 2010. Increases each year until it hits 15B in 2015. If driving picks up discretionary blending may take it past these volumes. The mandates are the minimums required by law.

RFS2 was also counting on cellulosic being much farther along and commercially viable by now - its not even close. The investment dollars for cellulosic are gone and the costs to build commercial scale production are prohibitive. Cellulosics only hope is retail gas going above $4.00 again and staying there for an extended period.

Corn ethanol has been netting good margins the last 6 months. If gas prices continue to go up so will their margins. Valero has bought 1.1B gallons of production capacity in 9 months. They know where ethanol is headed.

GLTA