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Thanks Jon.
It was truly impressive. And I saw the one in 2017 as well.
I was just better prepared this time.
Best quote of the day was from my typically cynical, little, 65 years old brother...
.
..."This is Kick-Ass!" 😆
Thanks Tom. Makes sense (as usual). ☺️
Wow!
Quite a difference!
The #'s for Technology clearly show the impact of 'The Magnificent Seven'. Valuations in the Trillions vs Millions makes quite a difference!
BTW: I know you've mentioned it before, but what was you're reasoning for going with Equal vs Cap?
You're most welcome Tom.
I did this because I wanted to get the actual facts so as to compare with all of the BS out there.
I've responded to that BS quite a few times on various sites since last Fall when I first built it.
Not a lot of replies back to me!
@factsmatter. 😊
will they start to look at other reasons to either go up or down
Apparently not.
All 3 major indices closed at record highs, for the second day in a row.
I listened to much of Powell's commentary and Q&A session yesterday.
Seems to me that his slow and steady approach to reaching the 2% target by 2027 was welcome news save for the addicts of Zero Interest Rates.
If the inflation rate continues to creep up from or match the November low of 3.1 (Dec 3.4, Jan, 3.1, Feb, 3.2), he will hold and not cut in June.
Worst case is if any month hits 4, he may need to raise by 0.25%. That could wake up the market. And not in a good way.
Here's my compounded inflation table for the last 22 four year presidential terms. 2021-2024 ranks as 17th worst of the 22 terms.
And here I thought 'Big Bird' was yellow! 😁
Great pic Tom!
Where was the pic taken?
RE: Only 3000 more until we hit 50,000!
That is true Tom. But at the current rate, it will take over 3 years to get there!
Keep 'em coming Indeed! 🙄
Thanks Jon!
Between the AIM Group's combined 65k posts on Silicon Investor & here on IHub...
I'm, STILL # 1 with 12 Grubs (2 on SI and 10 on IHub)
Codypup at #2 with 9,
You and AIMster are tied for 3rd with 5 apiece.
What's really amazing is we've crossed 65,000 posts!
Of course it's taken 27 years! 😊
SH*T !!! 🤬
Didn't notice we were close, and just now got back from walking the dogs.
However, given the distance between each of your 'Pre-Grub' posts, I probably wouldn't have gotten it anyway.
So......Congrats!
(I'll get you next time). 😁
RE: struggling with getting my Excel running again.
What kind of struggles Tom?
RE: Inflation at 4
Half your Purchasing Power
Gone in 18 years
Compound inflation 2006-2024 = 53.0%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
Another more sobering example:
In 1976 I purchased my first new car; Chrysler Cordoba for $5,400
Cumulative rate of inflation since then: 442.0%
That same car today should cost: $29,269.80
Maybe I got a deal! 😉
All will be clear when your Secret Decoder arrives!
Tom: What is the transit time to the UK?
😊
Hi Will. I think Tom will concur.
Assuming the "Vealie" level is at 30%, cash at 29%.
The target price of £15.00 would take the cash to 33%, instead of a sale you'd Vealie? All based on the expected trade return?
You describe it well.
So I will pre-calc a 'Potential Vealie in the tracking worksheet.
Thanks a lot Tom!
1) When a stock or fund is fully funded with cash reserve per my thinking, I don't hold any GTC Limit Sell orders open on it. I wait until the price/share hits my target (or better) and then execute the 'vealie' and update my watchlist target prices on the buy and sell sides.
This makes sense to me. Of course I've never had 'Too Much Cash'! 🙄 But if I did, I'd likely use the same approach.
2) I've been using i-Hub's "Monitor" menu item in a separate window. There I've added a "Memo" column and in there I put the next buy and sell target prices. That's my watchlist. It keeps me up-to-date at a quick glance. I've had other software in the past for such monitoring, but those have all gone "Bye Bye" now, so this is how I handle them today.
I set 'Alerts' in TD Ameritrade for both my next Buy and Sell points. I get a text notification when they trigger
3) Yes, if I'm lucky enough to have the price/share race past my next Sell target while I'm napping ( 😎 ) I ask AIM how much the current price would want me to sell and then use that value divided by 2 to add to the Portf Control. Then all's well until the next price move or check-up.
This has happened to me from time to time.
Also, if market risk moves upward so that my current cash percentage isn't satisfactory, I'll execute a sale at the next target price to bring cash up toward the new market risk cash suggestion. Going the other way on risk, if risk drops and my cash looks too fat, I'll just have a chance to do more 'vealies' until either risk rises again, or cash gets diluted by stock position growth, or a buy cycle comes along and naturally lowers cash again.
Makes sense
I'll look through my Newport histories and see if I have a good 3 year period of trades and vealies as an example.
That would be great!
Thanks Tom!
So that approach assumes you don't have a GTC Sell order sitting out there?
But maybe just an alert if it gets to your next target price?
But if it does blow past that target price, you do the Classic Lichello calc to determine the amount to add to PC to execute the Vealie?
Not sure Tom.
'minimum trade amount'?
RE: Questions for the board on 'Vealie's.
Will and I have recently been discussing 'Vealies' and I have some related questions...
Who, besides Tom of course, have used Vealies to keep a lid on cash reserve?
And if you have, How often (is it a regular part of managing your AIM program?
And if you have, is the Sell Market Order / 2 PC adjustment driven by market price (Lichello Calc), or by your pre calc'd Next Sell order?
For reference: Tom's original definition and rationale regarding 'Vealis' is below...
© VEALIE - Another change from Mr. L's origional plan I use with my AIM accounts is to limit my selling. If after an extended period of upward movement, like the '91 to '93 period, I find myself with too much cash (say over 50% for stocks and 33% for mutual funds) I quit taking AIM's sell advise. I, instead, pull a VEALIE© and take the dollar value of the sell market order divided by 2 and add that amount to Portfolio Control. This eliminates the sell order and moves the next buy and sell prices upward at the same time. I will continue doing that with each new sell order until the cash reserve is diluted to about what the Idiot Wave is suggesting at the time for stocks and funds. Then I start to sell again just as AIM would like. If cash reserve gets too fat again, I just repeat the same proceedure. This change allows me to stay more fully invested, expand my risk envelope slightly and participate in long term rallys as they come along. Using the Vealie I attempt to keep the cash reserve within about 10% of what the Idiot Wave is suggesting (IW says 33% cash, I keep my cash between 30% and 33%)
Thanks!
RE: AIMing a security across different accounts.
Hi Adam. What you say makes sense to me.
I suggest a common cash reserve for both.
Then when you want to see how the overall combined program is doing over time, add up the total 'Stock Value', #
Shares', Portfolio Control, and Total Cash and go from there.
You're most welcome Tom G.
I'll ask my 80 YO Mother in Law if she has them.
But she may not know even if she does.
I'll probably need to look myself when we take our annual trip back home in Wisconsin in early July.
Forgot!
It had cassette tapes, but my father in law didn't give those to me.
I went out to the Internet Archive and searched Videos using Lichello, AIM, etc. but got no results.
You Tube does have Jeff Webber's vids along with Michael Hicks, but no Lichello stuff..
Somebody, somewhere must have a bootleg copy!
Forgot to include the picture
IIRC, the infomercial price was $300
128 hand typed single sided pages describing the AIM System plus 6 Appendices.
- Blank AIM Forms:
- Listing of No Load Mutual Funds
- Listing of Newsletters and Advisory Services
- NYSE Stock Symbols
- Suggested Reading (Books, Newspapers and Magazines)
It was available on You Tube?
Crap!
I remember actually seeing the infomercial on TV!
Way late at night.
Watched it a few times!
No DVRs back then!
My late father-in-law saw it too. Months later when he was in town for a visit.
He handed me a thick 3 ring binder and told me to 'find the fatal flaw'.
I never could.
Thanks Tom.
Your Wayback Machine has been very valuable to those of us who go Way Back! 😫
Did you also forget that you have that link up top as a 'Sticky'? 😏
Hi Tom.
As I continue working on Hold Zones and AIM Tracking, I went back to the AIM Q&A to look at Split Safe and 'Vealie' to refresh my memory as to their use and purpose. It was very helpful.
I went further down that rabbit hole by going to the link on AIM Improvements and results summaries.
Specifically on VTSS. I wanted to verify how you calculated Total Return, Capital at Risk and ROCAR (although I think ROCAR is Total Return Divided by Capital at Risk).
Anyway, can you please share how you calc the first 2?
Hi Will.
Do you use Portfolio Control or Stock Value in respect of the sell side minimum sale %
Short answer is Portfolio Control (on both Sell and Buy sides).
And you do this to determine what the Stock Value would be at point of Sale or Buy.
Also important is that both Safe% and Minimum% figure onto that determination.
The PC Divisor is the very first step in that process.
HI Tom
Maybe Will can use some of these ideas as well.
That's exactly what he was trying to do.
First pass was sequentially increasing Safe, which did not look right to him.
I suggested Increasing Min Buy % and that looked to me like it works.
He's going to play around with it this week and see what he can derive.
Not sure specifically, but it's been a few years since I bookmarked that page.
I've been working with Will to help him come up with Hold Zones in order to conserve cash with consecutive Buys.
So when I went into my 'archives' I happened across the link.
From the FWIW Dept....
https://authormichaelhicks.com/automatic-investment-management-spreadsheet-template/
Mr. Hicks is primarily a Sci-Fi author but for whatever reason, put together a 'By the Book' AIM tracking worksheet available for download.
That's a fantastic site for a cemetary!
RE: Punchbowl Crater
Thanks Tom!
I was not aware of it, but it explains that hint.
'Nobody drinks Punch from a bowl'?
Congrats Will!
I didn't know that Hawaii still had a monarch.
But at least I wasn't alone in guessing Belize.
Jon: You used ChatGPT? Clever, but I guess that 'intelligence' is more 'artificial' than we thought!
Tomaso: You and Jane musta taken a wrong turn in Albuquerque! ☺️