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STATS ON ASCENDING TRIANGLES (from Bulkowski)
Bulkowski studied 725 ascending triangle formations among 500 stocks in the period from 1991-1996. That was a bull market, so I think we should be careful trying to make direct comparisons to the current situation. With that said, here are his stats:
Failure Rates:
-- 32% prior to breakout
-- 2% post-breakout
Average Moves:
-- successful formations: 44% rise
-- failed formations: 21% drop
Bulkowski emphasizes the importance of waiting for a breakout before going long an ascending triangle.
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Augieboo says if you can't wait, use a mechanical stop!
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Price Projections:
1. Measure Rule: add height of formation to the breakout point (the horizontal top line in the current instance)
-- average rise via measure rule = 44%
-- percentage meeting measure rule target = 89%
2. Frequency Distribution
-- "most likely" rise = 20%
-- distribution as follows
% Gain Frequency %
=========================
us to 10% 10%
20 22
30 17
40 12
50 7
60 4
70 4
80 3
90 3
>90 17
NASDAQ ETFS WHICH REPRESENT INTERNATIONAL INDICES
http://www.nasdaq.com/indexshares/index_shares_intl.stm
iShares MSCI Index Funds
iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (EWA)
iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund (EWO)
iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund (EWK)
iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (EWZ)
iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (EWC)
iShares MSCI EMU Index Fund (EZU)
iShares MSCI France Index Fund (EWQ)
iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG)
iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH)
iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund (EWI)
iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (EWJ)
iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund (EWM)
iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund (EWW)
iShares MSCI Netherlands Index Fund (EWN)
iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund (EWS)
iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund (EWY)
iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund (EWP)
iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund (EWD)
iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund (EWL)
iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund (EWT)
iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund (EWU)
iShares S&P Index Funds
iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund (IEV)
iShares S&P/TSE 60 Index Fund (IKC)
NASDAQ ETFS WHICH REPRESENT BROAD-BASED INDICES
http://www.nasdaq.com/indexshares/index_shares_broad_based.stm
DIAMONDS®SM (DIA)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index FundTM -- based on the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market IndexTM (IYY)
iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 1000 Growth IndexTM (IWF)
iShares Russell 1000 Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 1000 IndexTM (IWB)
iShares Russell 1000 Value Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 1000 Value IndexTM (IWD)
iShares Russell 2000 Growth Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 2000 Growth IndexTM (IWO)
iShares Russell 2000 Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 2000 IndexTM (IWM)
iShares Russell 2000 Value Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 2000 Value IndexTM (IWN)
iShares Russell 3000 Growth Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 3000 Growth IndexTM (IWZ)
iShares Russell 3000 Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 3000 IndexTM (IWV)
iShares Russell 3000 Value Index FundTM -- based on the Russell 3000 Value IndexTM (IWW)
iShares S&P 500 Index FundTM -- based on the S&P 500 IndexTM (IVV)
iShares S&P 500/BARRA Growth Index FundTM -- based on the S&P 500/BARRA Growth IndexTM (IVW)
iShares S&P 500/BARRA Value Index FundTM -- based on the S&P 500/BARRA Value IndexTM (IVE)
iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index FundTM -- based on the S&P MidCap 400 IndexTM (IJH)
iShares S&P MidCap 400/BARRA Growth Index FundTM -- based on the S&P MidCap 400/BARRA Growth IndexTM (IJK)
iShares S&P MidCap 400/BARRA Value Index FundTM -- based on the S&P MidCap 400/BARRA Value IndexTM (IJJ)
iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index FundTM -- based on the S&P SmallCap 600 IndexTM (IJR)
iShares S&P SmallCap 600/BARRA Growth Index FundTM -- based on the S&P SmallCap 600/BARRA Growth IndexTM (IJT)
iShares S&P SmallCap 600/BARRA Value Index FundTM -- based on the S&P SmallCap 600/BARRA Value IndexTM (IJS)
MidCap SPDRsTM -- based on the S&P MidCap 400 IndexTM (MDY)
Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking StockSM -- based on the Nasdaq-100 Index® (QQQ)
SPDRs® -- based on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Price Index® (SPY)
NASDAQ ETFS WHICH REPRESENT SECTOR INDICES
http://www.nasdaq.com/indexshares/index_shares_sector.stm
Select Sector SPDR® Funds
Select Sector SPDR - The Basic Industries Fund (XLB)
Select Sector SPDR - The Consumer Services Select Fund (XLV)
Select Sector SPDR - The Consumer Staples Select Fund (XLP)
Select Sector SPDR - The Cyclical/Transportation Fund (XLY)
Select Sector SPDR - The Energy Fund (XLE)
Select Sector SPDR - The Financial Fund (XLF)
Select Sector SPDR - The Industrial Fund (XLI)
Select Sector SPDR - The Technology Fund (XLK)
Select Sector SPDR - The Utilities Fund (XLU)
iShares Sector Funds
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Sector Index Fund (IYM)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Chemical Sector Index Fund (IYD)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Cyclical Sector Index Fund (IYC)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector Index Fund (IYK)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Energy Sector Index Fund (IYE)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Sector Index Fund (IYF)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Sector Index Fund (IYG)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Sector Index Fund (IYH)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Internet Sector Index Fund (IYV)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Sector Index Fund (IYR)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund (IYW)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index Fund (IYZ)
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Sector Index Fund (IDU)
HOLDRS
Biotech HOLDRS (BBH)
Broadband HOLDRS (BDH)
B2B Internet HOLDRS (BHH)
Internet HOLDRS (HHH)
Internet Architecture HOLDRS (IAH)
Internet Infrastructure HOLDRS (IIH)
Market 2000+ HOLDRS (MKH)
Pharmaceutical HOLDRS (PPH)
Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH)
Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH)
Telecom HOLDRS (TTH)
Utilities HOLDRS (UTH)
Wireless HOLDRS Trust (WMH)
streetTRACKS Sector Funds
FORTUNE e-50TM Index Tracking Stock (FEF)
FORTUNE 500TM Index Tracking Stock (FFF)
streetTRACKS Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Fund (MTK)
streetTRACKS Morgan Stanley Internet Index Fund (MII)
AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE ETFS
http://www.amextrader.com/asp/DataPage.asp
Includes iShares, HOLDRs, Morgan Stanley StreetTracks, and more.
WILSHIRE INDEXES COMPONENTS ETC
http://www.wilshire.com/Indexes/
Includes:
Wilshire Broad Market Indexes
Wilshire’s Broad Market Indexes are Wilshire’s flagship indexes. They include the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, which is the broadest index available for the U.S. equity market.
Wilshire Style Indexes
Wilshire’s Style Indexes are created by segmenting the Wilshire 5000 by size and style to evaluate the performance of active managers.
Target Indexes
Wilshire was the first consulting firm to introduce style indexes. Now called the Target Indexes, they are comprised of stocks with concentrated growth or value characteristics.
Wilshire Internet Index
Wilshire’s was the first broad based index created to capture the performance of the entire Internet market sector.
Wilshire Real Estate Indexes
Wilshire Associates introduced the Wilshire Real Estate Securities Index to create an index of publicly traded real estate equity securities without the limitations of other appraisal based indexes.
RUSSELL INDEXES COMPONENTS ETC
http://www.russell.com/US/Indexes/US/default.asp
Includes:
Russell 1000
1000 Growth
1000 Value
Russell 2000
2000 Growth
2000 Value
Russell 2500
2500 Growth
2500 Value
Russell 3000
3000 Growth
3000 Value
NASDAQ SECTOR INDEX COMPONENTS ETC
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/NonNASDAQActivityPrompt.stm
Includes:
IXFIN
NASDAQ Financial-100
IXID
NASDAQ Industrial
IXTR
NASDAQ Transportation
IXBK
NASDAQ Bank
IXTC
NASDAQ Telecommunications
IXIS
NASDAQ Insurance
IXCO
NASDAQ Computer
IXFN
NASDAQ Other Finance
NBI
NASDAQ Biotechnology
@NIN
NASDAQ NM Industrial
PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX COMPONENTS ETC
http://www.phlx.com/products/sectors.html
Includes:
BKX PHLX/KBW Bank Index
BMX PHLX Computer Box Maker Sector
DFX PHLX Defense Sector
RXS PHLX Drug Sector
FPP PHLX Forest & Paper Products Sector
XAU PHLX Gold/Silver Sector
HGX PHLX Housing Sector
OSX PHLX Oil Service Sector
OTX PHLX OTC Prime Sector
SOX PHLX Semiconductor Sector
SMQ SIG Investment Managers Index
DOT TheStreet.com Internet Sector
UTY PHLX Utility Sector
AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX COMPONENTS ETC
http://www.amex.com/
\Other Products
\Indexes
America's Fastest Growing Companies NDI
Amex Disk Drive Index DDX
Amex Airline Index XAL
Amex Biotechnology Index BTK
Amex Computer Hardware Index HWI
Amex Computer Technology Index XCI
Amex Defense Index DFI
Amex Electric & Gas Infrastructure RPE
Amex Equal Weighted Pharmaceutical DGE
Amex Gold BUGS Index HUI
Amex Hong Kong 30 Index HKX
Amex Hong Kong Option Index HKO
Amex Institutional Index XII
Amex International Market Index ADR
Amex Japan Index JPN
Amex Major Market Index XMI
Amex Mexico Index MXY
Amex N American Telecommunications XTC
Amex Natural Gas Index XNG
Amex Networking Index NWX
Amex Oil Index XOI
Amex Pharmaceutical Index DRG
Amex QQQ Volatility Index QQV
Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index XBD
Amex Semiconductor Index SIS
Amex Telecomunications Index PHN
Amex Tobacco Index TOB
B2B Internet HOLDRS Index BUX
Biotech HOLDRS Index IBH
Biotech-Pharmaceutical Index BPI
Broadband HOLDRS Index XDH
Cohen & Steers REIT Index RMP
Consumer Discretionary Select Sct I IXY
Consumer Staples Select Sector Indx IXR
CSFB Technology Index CTN
Deutsche Bank Energy Index DXE
Energy Select Sector Index IXE
Europe 2001 HOLDRS Index EKI
Fastest Growing LargeCap 50 Index FGL
Fastest Growing MidCap 300 Index FGM
Fastest Growing Total Market Index FGT
Financial Select Sector Index IXM
Fortune 500 FFX
FORTUNE E-50 Index FEX
GSSI Natural Resources Index GSR
Health Care Select Sector Index IXV
Healthcare PRUDENTS Underlying Bskt PHP
Industrial 15 Index IXD
Industrial Select Sector Index IXI
Institutional Holdings Index IXH
Inter@ctive Week Internet Index IIX
Internet Architecture HOLDRS Index XAH
Internet HOLDRS Index HHI
Internet Infrastructure HOLDRS Indx YIH
Lehman Brothers 10 Uncommon (1999) UVL
Lehman Brothers 10 Uncommon (2000) UVI
Lehman Brothers 10 Uncommon (2001) UVT
Lehman Brothers Financial Index UFX
Market 2000+ HOLDRS Index XKH
Materials Select Sector Index IXB
Merrill Lynch Early Cyclical Index XE
Merrill Lynch Global Market Index GLI
Merrill Lynch Intrst Rate Sensitive XI
Merrill Lynch Late Cyclical Index XT
Merrill Lynch Major 11 Intl EMX
Merrill Lynch Major 8 European EUX
Merrill Lynch Slct Sctr SPDR Grwth GWI
Merrill Lynch Stable Growth Index XS
Merrill Lynch Technology 100 Index MLO
Merrill Lynch Top Ten Yield Index XMT
Morgan Stanley Commodity Related CRX
Morgan Stanley Consumer Index CMR
Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index CYC
Morgan Stanley Health Care Payors HMO
Morgan Stanley Health Care Products RXP
Morgan Stanley Health Care Provider RXH
Morgan Stanley Internet Index MOX
Morgan Stanley REIT Index RMS
Morgan Stanley Technology Index MSH
Oil and Natural Gas Index OGX
Oil Service HOLDRS Index OXH
Pharmaceutical BOXES Indicative Val DYL
Pharmaceutical HOLDRS Index IPH
PRUDENTS Underlying Basket Index PXS
Regional Banks HOLDRS Index XRH
Retail HOLDRS Index IRH
Ryan 1 Year Treasury Index RTS
Ryan 10 Year Treasury Index RTL
Ryan 2 Year Treasury Index RTM
Ryan 5 Year Treasury Index RTV
Salomon Smith Barney NIX
Select Ten Index XST
Semiconductor HOLDRS Index XSH
Software HOLDRS Index XWH
StockCar Stocks Index RCE
Telecom HOLDRS Index ITH
The Industry Standard 100 Internet XIS
Utilities HOLDRS Index XUH
Utilities Select Sector Index IXU
Wilshire REIT Index REW
Wireless HOLDRS Index IWH
Sorry, I have no clue. Didn't even know there was such an animal. ):
Augie
do you have a list of the eft's are consisted included in IRS section 1256 and taxed 60/40 like commodities ?
NDX Components & Percentages
Data as of Mar. 6, 03 Mkt Close.
Click on the security's symbol for a Full Quote.
Company Name Symbol % Of Index
(Adjusted)
ADC Telecommunications, Inc. ADCT 0.28
Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE 0.81
Altera Corporation ALTR 0.85
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN 0.76
American Power Conversion Corporation APCC 0.39
Amgen Inc. AMGN 4.37
Apollo Group, Inc. APOL 1.06
Apple Computer, Inc. AAPL 0.96
Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT 1.36
BEA Systems, Inc. BEAS 0.47
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY 1.6
Biogen, Inc. BGEN 0.83
Biomet, Inc. BMET 1.37
Broadcom Corporation BRCM 0.36
Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. BRCD 0.14
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 0.34
CDW Computer Centers, Inc. CDWC 0.47
Cephalon, Inc. CEPH 0.31
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. CHKP 0.46
Chiron Corporation CHIR 1.22
CIENA Corporation CIEN 0.35
Cintas Corporation CTAS 0.86
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 4.58
Citrix Systems, Inc. CTXS 0.32
Comcast Corporation CMCSA 3.45
Compuware Corporation CPWR 0.11
Comverse Technology, Inc. CMVT 0.25
Costco Wholesale Corporation COST 0.91
Dell Computer Corporation DELL 3.26
DENTSPLY International Inc. XRAY 0.34
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. DLTR 0.27
eBay Inc. EBAY 2.39
EchoStar Communications Corporation DISH 0.96
Electronic Arts Inc. ERTS 1.01
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD 0.46
Express Scripts, Inc. ESRX 0.47
Fastenal Company FAST 0.27
First Health Group Corp. FHCC 0.34
Fiserv, Inc. FISV 0.96
Flextronics International Ltd. FLEX 0.66
Gentex Corporation GNTX 0.26
Genzyme General GENZ 1.08
Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD 0.87
Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC 0.23
Human Genome Sciences, Inc. HGSI 0.11
ICOS Corporation ICOS 0.14
IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation IDPH 0.63
Intel Corporation INTC 5.09
Intuit Inc. INTU 1.62
Invitrogen Corporation IVGN 0.19
JDS Uniphase Corporation JDSU 0.57
Juniper Networks, Inc. JNPR 0.29
KLA-Tencor Corporation KLAC 1.02
Lamar Advertising Company LAMR 0.32
Lincare Holdings Inc. LNCR 0.41
Linear Technology Corporation LLTC 1.64
LM Ericsson Telephone Company ERICY 0.1
Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. MXIM 2.03
MedImmune, Inc. MEDI 1.07
Mercury Interactive Corporation MERQ 0.37
Microchip Technology Incorporated MCHP 0.52
Microsoft Corporation MSFT 11.27
Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MLNM 0.28
Molex Incorporated MOLX 0.26
Network Appliance, Inc. NTAP 0.46
Nextel Communications, Inc. NXTL 1.96
Novellus Systems, Inc. NVLS 0.54
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 0.28
Oracle Corporation ORCL 3.27
PACCAR Inc. PCAR 0.81
PanAmSat Corporation SPOT 0.35
Patterson Dental Company PDCO 0.38
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN 0.36
Paychex, Inc. PAYX 1.24
PeopleSoft, Inc. PSFT 0.95
PETsMART, Inc. PETM 0.2
Pixar PIXR 0.36
QLogic Corporation QLGC 0.45
QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM 4.36
RF Micro Devices, Inc. RFMD 0.17
Ross Stores, Inc. ROST 0.33
Ryanair Holdings plc RYAAY 0.29
Sanmina-SCI Corporation SANM 0.31
Siebel Systems, Inc. SEBL 0.62
Sigma-Aldrich Corporation SIAL 0.38
Smurfit-Stone Container Corporation SSCC 0.4
Staples, Inc. SPLS 0.74
Starbucks Corporation SBUX 1.66
Sun Microsystems, Inc. SUNW 0.58
Symantec Corporation SYMC 0.84
Synopsys, Inc. SNPS 0.36
Tellabs, Inc. TLAB 0.18
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA 0.94
TMP Worldwide Inc. TMPW 0.14
USA Interactive USAI 1.53
VeriSign, Inc. VRSN 0.23
VERITAS Software Corporation VRTS 0.9
Whole Foods Market, Inc. WFMI 0.38
Xilinx, Inc. XLNX 1.34
Yahoo! Inc. YHOO 0.73
Don't know. Maybe the PPT ate it? Couldn't find the info to fill in that gap anywhere on the Nasdaq site. My guess is some gnome skipped a row while transferring a column of numbers.
what happened to 1999?
DESCRIPTIONS OF MANY INDEXES
http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/IndexDescriptions.stm
Indices of The NASDAQ Stock Market
The following common type securities are eligible for index inclusions. There is no distinction between either the NASDAQ National Market vs. The NASDAQ SmallCap Market, or domestic US vs. Non-US securities.
Security Class
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)
Common
Ordinary Shares
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Shares of Beneficial Interest (SBIs)
Tracking Stocks
The following issue types are not eligible for inclusion in the indices: convertible debentures, preferred stocks, rights, warrants, units and other derivative securities.
NASDAQ-100 Index
View List of Index Securities and Eligibility Criteria / Download List To Spreadsheet / NASDAQ-100 FlashQuote / Historical Changes
The NASDAQ-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market based on market capitalization. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. It does not contain financial companies including investment companies. The NASDAQ-100 Index is calculated under a modified capitalization-weighted methodology.
On January 31, 1985, the NASDAQ-100 Index began with a base of 250.00.
On January 1, 1994, the NASDAQ-100 base was reset by division of a factor of 2.00 to 125.00.
NASDAQ Financial-100 Index
View List of Index Securities and Eligibility Criteria / Download List To Spreadsheet / NASDAQ Financial-100 FlashQuote
The NASDAQ Financial-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international financial organizations listed The NASDAQ Stock Market based on market capitalization. The Index contains bank and savings institutions and related holding companies, insurance companies, broker dealers, investment companies and financial services.
On January 31, 1985, the NASDAQ Financial-100 Index began with a base of 250.00.
NASDAQ Composite Index
View List of Index Securities / Download List To Spreadsheet
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market.
Today the NASDAQ Composite includes over 4,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.
On February 5, 1971, the NASDAQ Composite Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ National Market Composite Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ National Market Composite Index is a sub-set of the NASDAQ Composite Index, and consists of all companies included in the NASDAQ Composite Index which are listed on the NASDAQ National Market tier of The NASDAQ Stock Market.
On July 10, 1984 the NASDAQ National Market Composite Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ Bank Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Bank Index contains all types of banks and savings institutions and related holding companies, establishments performing functions closely related to banking, such as check cashing agencies, currency exchanges, safe deposit companies and corporations for banking abroad.
On February 5, 1971, the NASDAQ Bank Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ Biotechnology Index
View List of Index Securities and Eligibility Criteria / Historical Changes / Biotechnology Investor's Forum
The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index contains companies primarily engaged in using biomedical research for the discovery or development of novel treatments or cures for human disease which also meet other eligibility criteria. The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index is calculated under a modified capitalization-weighted methodology.
On November 1, 1993, the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index began with a base of 200.00.
NASDAQ Computer Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Computer Index contains computer hardware and software companies that furnish computer programming and data processing services, and firms that produce computers, office equipment, and electronic components/accessories.
On November 1, 1993, the NASDAQ Computer Index began with a base of 200.00.
NASDAQ Industrial Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Industrial Index contains companies not classified in one of the other sub-indices, including agricultural, mining, construction, manufacturing, retail/wholesale trade, services, public administration enterprises, health maintenance organizations and companies that do not meet the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index criteria.
On February 5, 1971, the NASDAQ Industrial Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ National Market Industrial Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ National Market Industrial Index is a sub-set of the NASDAQ Industrial Index, and consists of all companies included in the NASDAQ Industrial Index which are listed on the NASDAQ National Market tier of The NASDAQ Stock Market.
On July 10, 1984 the NASDAQ National Market Industrial Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ Insurance Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Insurance Index contains all types of insurance companies including life, health, property, casualty, and brokers, agents, and related services.
On February 5, 1971, the NASDAQ Insurance Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ Other Finance Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Other Finance Index includes credit agencies (except banks and savings institutions and related holding companies), security and commodity brokers, exchanges and dealers, real estate, and holding investments companies.
On February 5, 1971, the NASDAQ Other Finance Index began with a base of 100.00.
NASDAQ Telecommunications Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Telecommunications Index contains all types of telecommunications companies, including point-to-point communication services and radio and television broadcast, and companies that manufacture communication equipment and accessories.
On November 1, 1993, the NASDAQ Utility Index was renamed the NASDAQ Telecommunications Index. The former NASDAQ Utility Index was reset to a base of 200.00, using a factor of 5.74805.
NASDAQ Transportation Index
View List of Index Securities
The NASDAQ Transportation Index contains all types of transportation companies, including railroads, trucking companies, airlines, pipelines, (except natural gas), and services incidental to transportation, such as warehousing, travel arrangements, and packing.
On February 5, 1971, the NASDAQ Transportation Index began with a base of 100.00.
The KLD-NASDAQ® Social IndexSM
KLD-NS Index Construction and Maintenance
The KLD-NASDAQ Social Index is a market-value weighted index reflecting the performance of the largest NASDAQ listed US corporations in major sectors of the market, including technology, financial, and telecommunications. All constituents of the KLD-NASDAQ Social Index pass KLD Research & Analytics proprietary social and environmental screens.
NASDAQ Index Calculation Description
All NASDAQ Indices are market value weighted except the NASDAQ-100 Index which is weighted using a modified market capitalization method. The representation of each security in the Index is proportional to its last sale price times the total number of shares outstanding, relative to the total market value of the respective index.
The formula used for determining the Index values is as follows: Index Level = Current Market Value
Adjusted Base Period
Market Value X Base Value
Adjusted Base Period
Market Value = Current Market Value
After Adjustments
Current Market Value
Before Adjustments X Previous Base
Period Market Value
The level of an Index will only change as a result of price changes occurring between the opening and closing of the market. Adjustments for securities being added to or deleted from The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc., or capitalization changes, are adjustments which take place during the system maintenance process which occurs after the market has closed. These adjustments will result in value changes to the current market value and adjusted base period market value, but will not in and of themselves alter the level of an Index.
Stock splits and stock dividends are likewise adjusted for during the system maintenance process. However, the system makes a price adjustment to account for the increased number of shares with the result being that the current market value does not change. As an example, assume that ABC Corp. has 1,000,000 shares outstanding with a last sale price of 20 (market value - $20,000,000) The company has declared a 2 for 1 stock split. During system maintenance on the day prior to the effective date of the split, the system will adjust the shares outstanding to 2,000,000 and will correspondingly adjust the price to 10. Result, the same current market value of $20,000,000.
In the case of cash dividends, no system adjustment is made. Neither the Current Market Value nor the Adjusted Base Period Market Value is adjusted to reflect cash dividends. The index formula relies on market forces to determine the level of the Index.
Other Index Descriptions
AMEX Composite
The Amex Composite Index reflects the aggregate market value of all its components relative to their aggregate value on December 29, 1995. The index was developed with a base of 550 as of Dec. 29, 1995. Components of the index include the common stocks or ADRs of all Amex-listed companies, REITs, master limited partnerships, and closed end investment vehicles. Each component's market value is determined by multiplying its price by the number of shares outstanding. The day-to-day price change in each issue is weighted by its market value (as of the start of the day) as a percent of the total market value for all components. Thus, the daily price change for each company influences that day's change in the index in proportion to the company's market value. The level of the Composite Index is not altered by stock splits, stock dividends or trading halts, nor is it affected by new listings, additional issuances, delistings, or suspensions.
Dow Jones Average - 30 Industrial
DJIA FlashQuote
Prepared and published by Dow Jones & Co. is one of the oldest and most widely quoted of all the market indicators. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries, and widely held by individuals and institutional investors. These 30 stocks represent about a fifth of the $8 trillion-plus market value of all U.S. stocks and about a fourth of the value of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Dow Jones Average - 20 Transportation
Prepared and published by Dow Jones & Co,. the Dow Jones Transportation Average represents 20 stocks of the airline, trucking, railroad, and shipping business.
Dow Jones Average - 15 Utilities
Prepared and published by Dow Jones & Co., the Dow Jones Utility index is geographically representative of the gas and electric utilities industries.
FORTUNE 500 Index
Developed by the editors of FORTUNE, this market-capitalization-weighted Index is based on FORTUNE's 45-year-old list of America's 500 biggest companies domiciled in the U.S. In addition, the Index is restricted to publicly listed companies in the FORTUNE 500 List whose shares are actively traded. Index was set to a base level of 1000.00 at the end of trading on December 31, 1999 and is being calculated real-time at 15-second intervals during the trading day.
FORTUNE e-50 Index
First published in the Dec. 6, 1999 issue of FORTUNE Magazine, it is based on a list of the 50 companies that FORTUNE has determined best capture the scope of the Internet sector.
Frank Russell - 3000 Index
Measures the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $5.1 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $791.1 million. The index had a total market capitalization range of approximately $520 billion to $178 million.
Frank Russell - 2000 Index
Measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $580 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $466 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $1.5 billion.
Frank Russell - 1000 Index
Measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 92% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $14.1 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $4.1 billion. The smallest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $1.6 billion.
Frank Russell - Midcap Index
Measuring the performance of the 800 smallest companies i the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 35% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $3.7 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $10.3 billion.
NYSE Composite Index
In 1966, the NYSE established the NYSE Composite Index to provide a comprehensive measure of market trends. The indexes consist of a Composite Index of all common stocks listed on the NYSE and four subgroup indexes -- Industrial, Transportation, Utility, and Finance. The indexes are basically a measure of the changes in aggregate market value of NYSE common stocks, adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and delistings.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
Created in December 1993, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a price-weighted index composed of 16 US semiconductor companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.
S&P 500 Index
Widely regarded as the standard for measuring large-cap U.S. stock market performance, this popular index includes a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries. The S&P 500 is used by 97% of U.S. money managers and pension plan sponsors. Some $626 billion is indexed to the S&P 500.
S&P Midcap 400 Index
Measuring the performance of the mid-size company segment of the U.S. market, this index is used by over 95% of U.S. managers and pension plan sponsors. $20 billion is indexed to the S&P MidCap 400.
S&P 100 Index
The Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index, known by its ticker symbol OEX, measures large company U.S. stock market performance. This market capitalization-weighted index is made up of 100 major, blue chip stocks across diverse industry groups.
Wilshire 5000 Equity Index
The Wilshire 5000 Equity Index measures the performance of all U.S. headquartered equity securities with readily available price data. Over 7,000 capitalization weighted security returns are used to adjust the index.
1A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold nor may offers to buy be accepted prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This statement shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any State in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such State. Complete information about shares based on the NASDAQ-100 Index, including charges and expenses, is contained in a prospectus which can be attained at: 1-800-843-2639.
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HOW THE NASDAQ NDX WORKS
Index Security Eligibility Criteria and Ranking Review
To be eligible for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, a common security must be traded on the Nasdaq National Market tier of the Nasdaq Stock Market and meet the following criteria:
the security must be of a non-financial company;
only one class of security per issuer is allowed;
the security may not be issued by an issuer currently in bankruptcy proceedings;
the security must have average daily trading volume of at least 100,000 shares per day;
the security must have "seasoned" on the Nasdaq Stock Market or another recognized market (generally, a company is considered to be seasoned by Nasdaq if it has been listed on a market for at least two years; in the case of spin-offs, the operating history of the spin-off will be considered);
if a security would otherwise qualify to be in the top 25% of the issuers included in the Index by market capitalization, then a one year "seasoning" criteria would apply;
if the security is of a foreign issuer, the company must have a worldwide market value of at least $10 billion, a U.S. market value of at least $4 billion, and average trading volume on the Nasdaq Stock Market of at least 200,000 shares per day; in addition, foreign securities must be eligible for listed options trading; and
the issuer of the security may not have entered into a definitive agreement or other arrangement which would result in the security no longer being listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market within the next six months.
Ranking Review
The Index Securities are evaluated on an annual basis, except under extraordinary circumstances which may result in an interim evaluation, as follows. Securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market which meet the above eligibility criteria are ranked by market value. Index-eligible securities which are already in the Index and which are in the top 150 eligible securities (based on market value) are retained in the Index provided that such security was ranked in the top 100 eligible securities as of the previous ranking review. Securities not meeting such criteria are replaced. The replacement securities chosen are those Index-eligible securities not currently in the Index which have the largest market capitalization. Generally, closing prices as of the end of October and publicly available total shares outstanding as of the end of November are used in determining market capitalization.
Generally, the list of annual additions and deletions is publicly announced via a press release in the early part of December. Replacements are made effective after the close of trading on the third Friday in December. Moreover, if at any time during the year an Index Security is no longer traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market, or is otherwise determined by Nasdaq to become ineligible for continued inclusion in the Index, the security will be replaced with the largest market capitalization security not currently in the Index and meeting the Index eligibility criteria listed above.
Changes in Total Shares Outstanding
In addition to the Ranking Review, the securities in the Index are monitored every day by Nasdaq with respect to changes in total shares outstanding arising from secondary offerings, stock repurchases, conversions, or other corporate actions. Nasdaq has adopted the following quarterly scheduled weight adjustment procedures with respect to such changes. If the change in total shares outstanding arising from such corporate action is greater than or equal to 5.0%, such change is ordinarily made to the Index on the evening prior to the effective date of such corporate action or as soon as practicable thereafter. Otherwise, if the change in total shares outstanding is less than 5%, then all such changes are accumulated and made effective at one time on a quarterly basis after the close of trading on the third Friday in each of March, June, September, and December. In either case, the Index share weights for such Index Securities are adjusted by the same percentage amount by which the total shares outstanding have changed in such Index Securities. Ordinarily, whenever there is a change in Index share weights or a change in a component security included in the Index, Nasdaq adjusts the divisor to assure that there is no discontinuity in the value of the Index which might otherwise be caused by any such change.
© Copyright 2001, The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Please read our Disclaimer.
HOW THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE WORKS
The Nasdaq Composite® Index is a capitalization-weighted index, unlike the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is a price-weighted index. That means the Composite Index’s value is based on the total market value of all the issues that compose the index.
The Composite is also a ratio, based upon the relationship between the total market value of all the stocks that compose the index today and the total value on the first day the index was issued. To get the index value, you divide the current market value (sum of price times total shares outstanding for each index security) by the market value on day one of the index.
For example, suppose an index is created today. The current market value of all index securities is $10. Divide that number by the market value on day 1, which is also $10, so the index value is 1 ($10/$10).
If the prices of the securities in the index go up so that the market value increases to $11, the value of the index increases to 1.1 ($11/$10). To create a more meaningful number, the ratio derived above is multiplied by a base value. In the case of the composite, that base value was 100.
Combining these two elements—total market value and the ratio—allows the index to be computed by the following: Index value = current market value/base period market value x base value of the index.
When index components, however, change or index companies issue new shares, of course, the current market value changes. But because this change is not the result of price changes in the market, the base period market value (the divisor) must be adjusted to allow for the component or share change in such a way that the index value after the change is the same as it was before.
This means the formula then becomes: Index Value = Current Market Value/Adjusted Base Period Market Value x Base Value of the Index.
In addition, dividend payments by index companies should reduce the company's price and therefore its market value. However, Nasdaq does not "add back the dividends." Indexes which do add back the dividends are referred to as "total return indexes."
© Copyright 2000, The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Please read our Disclaimer.
Number of Listed Companies Yearly: NASDAQ-NYSE-AMEX
Month NASDAQ NYSE Amex
1975 2,467 1,557 1,215
1976 2,456 1,576 1,161
1977 2,456 1,575 1,098
1978 2,475 1,581 1,004
1979 2,543 1,565 931
1980 2,894 1,570 892
1981 3,353 1,565 867
1982 3,264 1,562 834
1983 3,901 1,550 822
1984 4,097 1,543 792
1985 4,136 1,540 783
1986 4,417 1,573 796
1987 4,706 1,647 869
1988 4,451 1,681 896
1989 4,293 1,719 859
1990 4,132 1,769 859
1991 4,094 1,885 860
1992 4,113 2,089 814
1993 4,611 2,362 869
1994 4,902 2,570 824
1995 5,122 2,675 791
1996 5,556 2,907 751
1997 5,487 3,047 771
1998 5,068 3,114 770
2000 4,734 2,862 765
2001 4,109 2,798 691
2002 3,765 2,784 678
From DecisionPoint.com:
TRIN (Arms Index)
The purpose of the TRIN (also called the ARMS Index after its inventor, Richard Arms) is to express the relationship of volume in advancing issues to volume in declining issues. When the market is rising we want to see more volume going into advancing issues than declining issues. When this doesn't happen, negative divergences occur. The opposite is true in declining markets. A chart of the index will display points where the market is oversold and overbought as well as divergences between the market and the TRIN.
The basic raw calculation is as follows:
Advancing Stocks/Declining Stocks
---------------------------------
Advancing Volume/Declining Volume
This raw calculation can be used "as is"; however, most often the daily ratio is smoothed by moving averages of varying periods.
Another way to calculate the TRIN is the "open" method, by which the ratio is calculated from a moving averages of the components rather than calculating a moving average of the daily ratio of the components. We feature the open method and use a 10-day moving average.
Here is the formula for the 10-Day Open Arms:
Last 10 day's Advances/Last 10 day's Declines
---------------------------------------------------------
Last 10 day's Advancing Volume/Last 10 day's Declining Volume
We also provide charts of the TRIN 4-day moving average (short-term), TRIN 21-day moving average (intermediate-term), and 55-day moving average (long-term).
On our charts we reverse the scale so that oversold readings show as bottoms and overbought readings as tops.
From DecisionPoint.com:
Bretz TRIN-5
The Bretz TRIN -5 Indicator was developed by W.G. Bretz (Juncture Recognition in the Stock Market. 1972, Vantage Press), and it was dubbed the TRIN-5 by Jerry Favors who published an article on it (Technical Analusis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine; March 1992). Favors claims that it is a better top picker than other versions of TRIN.
The calculation is simply a 5-day moving sum (not a moving average) of TRIN*.
When the indicator reaches an extreme above 6.00, then turns down, a BUY Signal is generated. When the indicator reaches an extreme below 4.00, then turns up, a SELL Signal is generated. (Please note that the scale on our chart is reversed to make it more intuitive.)
*The basic daily TRIN calculation is as follows:
Advancing Stocks/Declining Stocks
---------------------------------
Advancing Volume/Declining Volume
The 10 day ARMSs index was for several years touted as the "perfect indicator". Until it failed last year and then failed again. What do you mean by "Open" Arms?
I've never heard of the Bertz TRIN-5. Is this something more substantial than a 5-DMA of TRIN??
Warp
Warp
Warp,
i've been looking over your Excel Trin study (very cool!), and was curious if you have checked out some of the other trin based indicators such the 10day Open Arms and the Bertz Trin-5.
-Chris
That's cool too! (: I find I really like the extra time in the hourlies because it lets me draw trendlines and such much more precisely.
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
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WAAAAAA-HOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(:
<wag-wag-wag-wag-wag-wag-wag-wag-wag-wag>
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Like my charts? Join StockCharts! http://www.stockcharts.com
Augie,
Also, I've been able to get 60min bars going back to Aug 2001 on Stockcharts. But, can't use the specific date feature with 60min bars. The only way i've been able to see that far back is to set it on "2 Years", and the bars are real tiny, even when setting it on the maximum chart size.
-Chris
Augie, did you read the StockCharts Jan 5 Newsletter?
http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/cww20030105h.html
--------------------------------------------------------------
Real-Time Real Soon Now (Really!):
The holidays have slowed our progress, but providing Real-Time charting ASAP is still the number one priority here at StockCharts. The current status is that we are waiting for the various exchanges to approve our plans. We are also installing new servers and equipment to handle any additional demand that we may encounter.
We've also finalized the pricing for our real-time service. In order to see real-time (non-delayed) price information on our charts, you'll first need to subscribe (or upgrade) to our Extra service. Real-time charts will not be availabe to Basic members. For non-professional members (i.e. people not associated with the financial industry), real-time charting will cost an additional $9.95/mo in addition to the cost of your Extra membership. We are still working out the cost for professional users.
Why the additional charge? The majority of that fee is sent directly to the various exchanges who charge us on a per user per month basis for providing this service. We anticipate rolling out this service before the end of the month. Stay tuned...
I haven't done a summary in about 6 months on trading TRIN. Mainly because the effective range for TRIN seems to have been inching higher and higher over the past 2 years.
It used to be that a single day reading of 2 was sufficient to portend an imminent reversal. Now I like a 3, or alternatively 2 consecutive days over 2.
But even these rules are getting weaker and weaker, it may be time to scale it up again.
Nonetheless, this spreadsheet is good ammo against fans of TRINQ - if you try and trade off of low or high TRINQ, it will be an exercise in futility.
Warp
Thanks for keeping me updated on that, Warp. (: The TRIN long version looks promising. Do you have any summary data, i.e., average % gain/loss, highest/lowest % gain/loss per trade, etc?
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Like my charts? Join StockCharts! http://www.stockcharts.com
Augieboo, other readers
I've updated the TRIN & TRINQ study that I posted originally in September:
http://home.attbi.com/~gottfriedm/trin_and_trinq_vs_naz.xls
Gottfried has posted it onto his web space as before, and we kept the same name, so that old links are still effective.
Warp
but where would be the fun in trying to outwit random noise.
the market continues on its plug ugly sideways to down bend.
its going to crash up or down. the economy stinks the money flow is gold, I did not short amazn or jcp (and I do not know whY- I just did not). I think I will buy a lot of food - I can use it, its a commodity, there is never enough, and there will be a run on it in the future. millions of MRE's, dated for the 2000 year end disaster that was averted. is defense up?
If you could afford a Cray 990, couldn't you skip it and just retire? {g}
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Here's another summary of CLX. #msg-409188
i think I need a copy of lg and da cheifs' trading bank accounts
plotted against the ny times news page and their stock trading formulas. then I could retire with a cray 990 and figure it all out
Hey, I just copied and pasted that post. I'm not responsible for the content! (To tell the truth, I've never even succeeded in reading it all, let alone understanding it.)
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
its too hard augie, cant you just give me a soundbite that always works
NASDAQ Holiday Trading Schedule
2002 Dates - Unless noted, the following dates are holidays that The NASDAQ Stock Market is closed. January 1 - New Year's Day
January 21 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday (Observed)
February 18 - Presidents' Day
March 29 - Good Friday
May 27 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 2 - Labor Day
November 28 - Thanksgiving Day
December 25 - Christmas Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please Note:
* The NASDAQ Stock Market will open at 11 a.m., September 11, 2002
** The NASDAQ Stock Market will close at 1:00 p.m. on the following days: July 5, November 29 and December 24.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2003 Dates January 1 - New Year's Day
January 20 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday (Observed)
February 17 - Presidents' Day
April 18 - Good Friday
May 26 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 1 - Labor Day
November 27 - Thanksgiving Day
December 25 - Christmas Day
2004 Dates January 1 - New Year's Day
January 19 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday (Observed)
February 16 - Presidents' Day
April 9 - Good Friday
May 31 - Memorial Day
July 5 - Independence Day
September 6 - Labor Day
November 25 - Thanksgiving Day
December 24 - Christmas Day
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Augie,
Looks like you've been pretty busy this evening.
I am having a tought time keeping up, however I did work up another backtest of your "Eureka" volume indicator. I changed the 21SMA to a 6-PMA. A 6 day proprietary moving average with the weights set as follows - 35%, 25%, 18%, 12%, 8%, 8%.
Backtest rules:
1) When the Volume indicator (VI) exceeds -40%, use 50% of portfolio value and go long QQQ
2) When VI exceeds -50%, go long 100%
3) When VI exceeds +40%, go short 50% of portfolio value
4) When VI exceeds 50%, short 100% QQQ
5) Go back to cash when the VI recedes to < 50% of the most extreme reading.
Results:
1) Total return over 2 years of 53.6%
2) 32 long plays - 24 successes
3) 10 short plays - 10 successes!!
You gotta like all those samples. Strengthens validity. I'm liking the results with this one, the volatility was pretty low too. The portfolio value never dropped more than 11% at any given time.
BTW, as a follow-up to the above, I substituted SOX data in lieu of QQQ. Results of 73.4% gains with portfolio volatility of 16%. This presumes of course that you can pick a stock or group of stocks that will duplicate the SOX performance.
I am having trouble uploading the file for view, will try it again in a little bit.
Warp
NET PERCENTAGE UP AND DOWN VOLUME (COMP)
The first two charts are the "raw" net percentage up & down
volume, respectively. Not very useful, methinks, unless one
were to keep the chart down to say six months or less. The
second pair of charts display 5 and 13 day SMAs of up and
down volume, respectively. They may be more useful.
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
{G} Thanks.
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
the old junk pile is looking pretty "junkie" er ah I mean good
Nice work! Thanks.
LG on the Directional Movement Indicator, (DMI & ADX)
I use the DMI (Direction Movement Indicator) which includes the ADX.
The DMI indicator calculates and plots the DMI Plus and DMI Minus values. DMI Plus is calculated from a comparison of the highs on a series of consecutive bars versus the true range; DMI Minus is calculated from the lows on a series of consecutive bars versus the true range. These values are used to calculate ADX, which is also plotted by this indicator. ADX is commonly used to indicate whether a market is trending.
Rising ADX values indicate a trending market without indication of the trend direction, but IMO correlates to the dominant trend. The DMI Plus and DMI Minus, components of the ADX, can aid in identifying direction. DMI Plus crossing over DMI Minus is a bullish sign, and vice versa.
As mentioned in previous posts about the DirMov Indicator, I primarily use the ADX in concert with my other indicators. It helps identify momentum peaks for both the dominant trend and the subordinate trend. Per my settings, the ADX often begins to top out at or near short to medium-term reversal points for the dominant trend, which for the last few years has been down, thus the ADX has helped to identify, lows. Prior to 2000 the dominant trend was up.
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
LG ON DECIDING IF A TREND HAS "LEGS"
-------------------------------------------------
I, (augieboo), asked LG the following:
-------------------------------------------------
1. Does MTFA give any clues as to how long a CIT will last?
2. If yes, what clues should we look for and how should we
analyze them?
3. If not, do you have any other tricks up your sleeve which
are helpful in determining how long a CIT will last?
-------------------------------------------------
Here is his reply:
-------------------------------------------------
1 - Yes and no, it is a system designed to help keep you on the
right side of the trend short to medium term. It does a pretty
good job of keeping you on the right side of the intra-day
trends as well. My theory has always been, if you are on the
right side of the short to medium term trends, you'll be on the
right side of the longer-term trends.
2 - This one is going to require some thought, as to how to
respond in writing. Using the tools I've shared so far, the
best clue is to learn the interaction of the weekly and daily
models with the intra-day models. This can give you a feel for
whether a trend change is likely to be an intra-day, short-term
or longer trend. The models are driven by a combination of time
and price, so the dynamics of a trend can effect the duration.
I'll "keep" this question and take a look at a few charts and
see if I can find some examples of how the MTFA System helped
ID the duration.
3 - I do use an Acc/Dist analysis system that can provide clues
as to where an equity/index may be about to reverse and
subsequently where it may be headed. This system works best for
determining targets for long trades, but I have used it with
some success on the downside as well. As I have mentioned
before, this technique I am not inclined to share, at this time.
Since I watch the markets closely, even on days when I can't be
in front of my computer all day, I have never needed a system
to determine how long a CIT will last. When I spot what I
believe has been substantial accumulation coupled with
bottoming technical signals, more often than not they lead to a
significant rally. Not having an exact target keeps me from
becoming biased, as I might hold to long looking for that
target to pan out. I just trade the trend until it changes and
often I trade the shorter-term cycles with in the larger ones.
That’s makes this job more fun.
One of the things I use and you use that can help at guessing
the duration of a trend are price/volume chart patterns. This
can be achieved by combining MTFA with the patterns. I'll see
if I can come up with an example of this as well. I tend to shy
away from cycles, as everyone’s dog has one. By the time you
plot them with their acceptable margin of error, every single
trading day shows up on one of the cycles forecast as a
CIT...LOL
Regards,
LG
PS: Don't expect me to get these example together right away,
as I am over tasked through the end of the year. But I
will "keep" these posts, so they will be in my face every day
until I get a "round tuit"...wait I already got one from Zig
Ziglar back in 1978...gg
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Nice junk pile in your ibox. I hope to look at it all as time permits.
Thanks.
I have no idea, but that sounds like a nice research project. Be sure to let us all know what you find. {G}
I'll put it on my todo list. I hope get to it by June 2007. (that's 55 months from today <g>)
Cheers
Kevin
but how do you choose the starting events.
I just picked any day that looked like it could possibly contain an iota of significance. (Admittedly, that's not a very high threshold, but then I don't expect all that much from this so, what the hay?)
A major market turn, I can understand, but the formation of a H&S Shoulder???.
Well Heck, it was a pretty BIG H&S, and the neckline held out as resistance for a while, so I figured it deserved a little bit of respect. {g}
What makes an event noteworthy from a Fib point of view.
Don't really know. Just thought I'd toss this stuff out there and see if any of it stuck to anything, or if anybody volunteered a more reasoned, systematic, methodology.
Is this written up somewhere ?
I have no idea, but that sounds like a nice research project. Be sure to let us all know what you find. {G}
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
Augie,
Whats the theoretical basis for these dates. I understand the Fibonacci time series, hence say the significance of 55 days, but how do you choose the starting events. A major market turn, I can understand, but the formation of a H&S Shoulder???. What makes an event noteworthy from a Fib point of view. Is this written up somewhere ?
Cheers
Kevin
Some Fibonacci Dates (Corrected)
Comment: November 26-27 looks pretty strong for some kind of turn.
November 22 =
55 days from September 5th (right trough of H&S)
November 26 =
-- 89 days from July 24th low
November 27 =
-- 55 days from 9/11/02 (H&S right shoulder)
-- 34 days from Oct 10 bottom
Dec 3 = 89 days from July 30 (H&S left shoulder)
Dec 6 = 144 days from May 17 top
Dec 9 = 89 days from August 5 (left trough of H&S)
Dec 27 = 89 days from August 22 (H&S top)
Jan 13 = 89 days from Sept 5 (right trough of H&S)
Jan 17 = 89 days from 9/11/2002
Feb 14 = 144 days from July 24 low
Feb 18 = 89 days from October 10 low
Feb 21 = 144 days from July 30 (H&S left shoulder)
Feb 27 = 144 days from August 5 (H&S left trough)
Mar 18 = 144 days from August 22 (top of H&S)
Apr 1 = 144 days from Sept 5 (H&S left trough)
Apr 7 = 144 days from 9/11/02 (H&S right trough)
Apr 15 = 233 days from May 17, 2002 top
May 7 = 144 days from October 10 bottom
MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo
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