augieboo's junk pile

[augieboo]

LG ON DECIDING IF A TREND HAS "LEGS"

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I, (augieboo), asked LG the following:
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1. Does MTFA give any clues as to how long a CIT will last?

2. If yes, what clues should we look for and how should we
analyze them?

3. If not, do you have any other tricks up your sleeve which
are helpful in determining how long a CIT will last?

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Here is his reply:
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1 - Yes and no, it is a system designed to help keep you on the
right side of the trend short to medium term. It does a pretty
good job of keeping you on the right side of the intra-day
trends as well. My theory has always been, if you are on the
right side of the short to medium term trends, you'll be on the
right side of the longer-term trends.

2 - This one is going to require some thought, as to how to
respond in writing. Using the tools I've shared so far, the
best clue is to learn the interaction of the weekly and daily
models with the intra-day models. This can give you a feel for
whether a trend change is likely to be an intra-day, short-term
or longer trend. The models are driven by a combination of time
and price, so the dynamics of a trend can effect the duration.
I'll "keep" this question and take a look at a few charts and
see if I can find some examples of how the MTFA System helped
ID the duration.

3 - I do use an Acc/Dist analysis system that can provide clues
as to where an equity/index may be about to reverse and
subsequently where it may be headed. This system works best for
determining targets for long trades, but I have used it with
some success on the downside as well. As I have mentioned
before, this technique I am not inclined to share, at this time.

Since I watch the markets closely, even on days when I can't be
in front of my computer all day, I have never needed a system
to determine how long a CIT will last. When I spot what I
believe has been substantial accumulation coupled with
bottoming technical signals, more often than not they lead to a
significant rally. Not having an exact target keeps me from
becoming biased, as I might hold to long looking for that
target to pan out. I just trade the trend until it changes and
often I trade the shorter-term cycles with in the larger ones.
That’s makes this job more fun.

One of the things I use and you use that can help at guessing
the duration of a trend are price/volume chart patterns. This
can be achieved by combining MTFA with the patterns. I'll see
if I can come up with an example of this as well. I tend to shy
away from cycles, as everyone’s dog has one. By the time you
plot them with their acceptable margin of error, every single
trading day shows up on one of the cycles forecast as a
CIT...LOL

Regards,
LG

PS: Don't expect me to get these example together right away,
as I am over tasked through the end of the year. But I
will "keep" these posts, so they will be in my face every day
until I get a "round tuit"...wait I already got one from Zig
Ziglar back in 1978...gg



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