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ZEEV, DOW GAMBIT - up to ZEEV:316616, 10/31/04
10/25: (314492) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev - Any thoughts on a dow play?
MRK, PFE, SBC, JPM, MO perhaps-
Cy
(*END*)
Not these, if I were to play a Dow gambit it would involve IBM, AXP, UTX, EK and a bounce on AIG.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:313898, 10/23/04
10/17: (310643) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, what do you think of the longer term charts ? I'm looking at monthly charts and only one word comes to mind. "UGLY". XBD, DRG, BKX, BTK, SOX, DOW, all look ugly. Nasty bearish MACD crossovers have already happened on some of them, and are about to happen on the rest. CCI average topped out in overbought and turing down. Momentum cycle turning down too. Technicals don't look good. A lot of potential H&S or double top patterns.
Weekly charts aren't that bad an are mostly somewhere in the midle. But considering monthly charts, I just can't imagine any significant upside from here. Everyone is anticipating the after elections relief rally, at the same time economic data keeps getting weaker.
I would also disagree that what is happening to AIG and MRK is unusual an unique. These are the "confidence" stocks. Held in almost every portfolio. I think it should be viewed in the general context of the "fluff" coming out of the stocks. And it certainly seems that the effect they are having on the market will only spread. In other words it will get worse before it gets better.
I know you're intermidiate term bullish, but are there any fundamental reasons except for seasonality, that you see ?
(*END*)
Since January, we really have not had major extreme optimistic sentiment readings, until we get such, the markets internal will not allow, most of the times, a major debacle. That is why I think that we still have a major leg up during which we get real extreme optimism, such as bullish advisors above or very near 60%, bearish one well under 20%, EPC in the .4 to .45 with hopefully an excursion just under .4, and a number of other parameters as well as divergences, like new highs in major indices made due to a minority of generals rather then with broad leadership etc.
10/18: (311244) (*COMMENT*)
it will take a fair amount of math calculations and calculating which day between 10/24 and 10/29 i short the market with a tight stop loss to be set in place 11/1. Zogby Pollsters say polling action is identical in patterns that were occurring at this time in 2000. They see a significant chance we will have no winner by Wednesday. I feel we have a 50/50 chance of no winner by Wednesday 11/3 and 25% chance of a prolonged post election battling of challenges, recounts and tension and fights. If this happens i believe the market is going to roll over and roll over hard. this shows how contested this is http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Do you have any pre-election view when market will hit high and then start to fade as election comes closer???
(*END*)
Jim has tomorrow as a local high, I think we may have a little longer, my target before election is still an attempt at 2000/2025, that is still another 65 to 90 naz points from here.
10/24: (313898) (*COMMENT*)
Do you have an updated target for the Dow? The last reference I remember seeing was 12,000 in January.
(*END*)
With drugs and financials in shamble, no, 12,000 is out of the question, IMTO, this and next year, we will be very lucky to hit 10,500 to 10,700.
ZEEV, TRADING - up to ZEEV:313898, 10/23/04
10/18: (310775) (*COMMENT*)
Nice trade Zeev.
(*END*)
Doing my best....following the rule, sell a new high and get back on a retrench.
10/18: (310805) I like that rule ZEEV, let' s all post successful rules to trade by.
(*END*)
Most of the stocks that are added to my radar screens are getting there from my "new highs" screen. In Bull markets, it is an excellent strategy, since they keep making new highs. At turning points from bull to bear, these become more problematic (g). Usually, I look at the new high screens for selection of new candidates when there are 50 or less new highs, that assures that you are not selecting new additional candidates near tops (when new highs are in the 200 to 400 range).
10/19: (311769) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, do you by any chance follow stxs, a recent IPO. I am tempted because of the science behind the company and the field of application, cardiology. With many baby boomers on the decline healthwise and probably having problems with their hearts, I felt STXS may have a good future. I think I better stop trying to make sense of the stocks I want to buy, cause it is not working, lol. I do good with those that I blindly delve in on momentum, LOL!
(*END*)
I don't do IPO for a good year or two after the public offering.
10/21: (312440) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev... A strange thing is going on with L2 QCOM today. On no less than 10 occasions, for minutes at a time, various different MM's (like MLCO) have been showing the "ask" price as much as 10 cents below where the stock is trading at! Are they "short" and trying to walk down the shares? What do you see going on here?
(Part 2)
Sometimes I see such delay of reposting the current ask and it is below the bid, I think it is more electronic and timely posting than anything else (I see that often in the QQQ in fast markets as well).
(Part 3)
Thanks for the response. But, I think I mispoke..I meant L3, the area of the window that lists all of the market makers and number of shares each is offering. Today they took turns sitting on lower asks than the market was trading at for many minutes at a time.
(*END*)
If it lasts for minutes, then you may be right and some shenanigans are being played...typically such inversions do not last more than few seconds.
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:313898, 10/23/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through October 22nd, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:313898, 10/23/04
10/19: (311738) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev:
No single indicator -- not even EPC -- is infallible as I am sure you know. VIX worked very well during the bear, but has been useless during the bull.
One of these days EPC will meet a similar fate.
That said I do doubt a big drop here and now. But we are in for a huge plunge before many moons have passed IMHO.
(*END*)
No disagreement with you, but a big plunge is preceded by gradual reaching of extremes (short of extraneous effects like terror attacks), I think some of the parameters are on their way, but far from "being" there.
10/23: (313735) (*COMMENT*)
the only fear yesterday was in missing the runup in semis and inet stocks. this market is making me dizzy. got to love the volatilitly, but it does not help with my visiblility which has been cloudy for a week and a half now
(*END*)
Have you looked at the Dow 5 days RSI? 14.3, even the five weeks moving average is at an extreme oversold of 25. The Dow is making a triple bottom here, and the Naz is not even testing the August lows of 1750, it even did not manage to take out the 10/14-15 low at 1900. The $ndx is even stronger. The strange thing, despite the 40 or so Naz points decline, the BPCOMPQ, did not even drop today... I think that any initial drop Monday morning, will rapidly reverse and don't mind going into the weekend at 14% cash only. You'd think that with such a large drop in the indices, the new highs will contract and new low expand, but they barely budged and new highs counts is greater than new lows on both NYSE and Naz. Such divergences indicate to me that something is not as it seems....
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:313898, 10/23/04
10/20: (312355) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev thanks man always appreciate your input. I dont have a clue on the old lows for the dollar.
(*END*)
It was 80 yens to the dollar, no history against the Euro (it is now at a historic low), but would not be surprised to see 100 yen to the dollar and $1.45 to the Euro if the feds decide to hold rates much longer. I doubt they will, however, so I would use about 5% higher as the the through in the dollar. After that, who knows, a recession will have a negative impact on gold, IMTO, and if the dollar strengthen just due to higher rates and less imports during the next recession, Gold may easily meander back to the $380/400 in the next year. Until we see major world wide inflation, the dollar probably is the best forecaster of gold movement. All IMTO, and Dan knows much more on the subject.
10/23: (313786) (*COMMENT*)
The dow just tagged its 400sma for the first time Friday...during the 90's, this was a great place to go long. Since I think we're still in the cyclical bull, I think we'll get a similar outcome this time. As I've been saying for a few weeks, I still think we could drop as low as 9625-9650, the area of the 200 week avgs, but I'd expect a decent reversal from there. Perhaps we get that early monday. The worst cases of the 400sma breaking were end of 94 and 98, where we spent weeks below instead of days, and the resulting rallies were monsters. IMO, the longer we stay down here, for instance, if we haven't taken out the nas 2153 high by dec, the better 05 becomes. I've been thinking 2350-2400 by Jan-Feb, then correct hard into Spring. If we continue to drag down here until dec or so, then take off would be in Jan-Feb, and we'd basically get a repeat of 03, straight up into fall 05, probably towards 2500. All JMO.
[Suppressed Chart Link]
(*END*)
Your second scenario would go against the typical four year cycle. Since the economy has still a lot of imbalances in it, the bitter medicine will be taken early on if Kerry wins, if Bush wins, I am not sure if such medicine will be administered and then the drunkard like spending might add fuel. I would be looking at underpinning economic signs such as the employment, if we cannot get employment rising, then the consumer led recession I have been suggesting for the second half of 2005 would kick in and the market may start and discount it a good 6 months ahead, making the late January to February period as a potential window for a top.
10/23: (313799) (*COMMENT*)
<consumer led recession I have been suggesting for the second half of 2005 would kick in and the market may start and discount it a good 6 months ahead, making the late January to February period as a potential window for a top>
Z, IMO the window for the rally is even more narrow than you suggest. Recession is likely to start earlier, and given very likely uncertainty with elections, legal challenges etc, the Jan/Feb peak may be lower than current levels.
From trading point of view, xxxx win would make trading really easy. I'll just buy gold/gold miners and wait for the collapse which will come sooner or later. IMO sooner than most people think.
(*END*)
I don't know about the election being uncertain, the surprise would probably be a large turnout, a greater than usual turnout would turn the current more or less even polls in the battle state to a democratic victory, maybe even control of the senate (I doubt they get the house, which is fine with me), thus the fear of uncertainty the market is reflecting here (together with the Spizer/Vioxx debacle in the financials and drugs in the dow) may be relieved.
10/24: (313888) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I think in this particular case New highs and new lows may not be very accurate predictor. Market has been on an upswing for almost a year. Even if the decline has started, many stocks have quite a way to go to new lows.
Do you think there is a chance that the recession you predict for the end of 2005 will have an early start ? and that market may start discounting it earlier ? High heating oil and gasoline prices combined with weak employment growth may be a good starting trigger.
Despite more or less OK profit season, most forward looking guidance statemnts aren't optimistic at all. So the big hope that corporations will increase hiring and pick up spending may not materialize. Why would multiples expand, if the growth rates are contracting ? Where is the Bull case ?
The only possible reason for a bounce here is a pre-elections rally, in an anticipation of after elections rally. Bu I have serious doubts that there will be a rally after the elections.
(*END*)
I think that transportation stocks like the rails and the shippers and truckers will give you advance notice of a recession, right now, these are still "smoking"....
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:310596, 10/17/04
10/12: (308202) (*COMMENT*)
Guess what? Insider selling for Oct is setting up to be the new year high. Check out sells vs buys. Not a good sign at all.
http://insider.thomsonfn.com/tfn/tearsheet/market.asp?linkcode=7rdcg6divt9fsuu5awkj&tfnHeader=in....
(*END*)
So far it does not look good, and that excursion last week above 1965, was indeed a master head fake. Looks that the 1902 gap will surely be closed, what next? I don't like the declining EPC as stock decline either.
10/13: (308641) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, trying to read between the lines - it seems that you favor now Jim's Oct 19th as the local top? Or just no strong opinion?
(*END*)
Between now and election day, very tough to draw any conclusion, I think Jim's date could be a pretty good one, I am not sure that any reaction from there will, however be very severe, until I see the internal leading to such a potential local high.
10/13: (308864) (*COMMENT*)
As said before there is one trend that will continue to put pressure on the market: the fact that the large Tech stocks are seeing a deterioration in their CAP.
The other trend, young companies that are disrupting the incumbents business model are obviously a positive for the market.
While subjective, from my personal experience and other contacts in the industry I see the second trend getting more steam, while the first remains about the same.
Hence, I'm pretty unsure how the market will behave near term, but I'm very BULLISH for the next 6-12 months. I probably should not have stated that I thought that the market will be 10 % higher by year's end (although IMO highly likely), but 6-12 months from now I do expect it to be substantially higher.
(*END*)
I think we have disagreement on that, I have the market going up till January/February, but after that, I don't see much good out there.
10/14: (309651) (*COMMENT*)
The gap from 7/15 on SNDK just got filled... in edit and here with the Dow at 1988.88 and the Naz kissing 1900, the horns are being fastened back on. Tough time to do that in the middle of October and few weeks before elections, but many indicators are turning quite bullish. Not saying we cannot continue this down draft for another 50 Naz points, but in this volatile environment, it is tough to judge.
(*END*)
10/14: (309845) (*COMMENT*)
Seems like a lot of blood in the streets on some big names the last couple of days Zeev...I'm probably looking at this wrong, but my confidence is being shrunk of a continuation of a Naz heading higher....keeping in mind this is totally without TA, but rather a gut feeling....tuna
(*END*)
I am not that negative, as a matter of fact in #msg-4291209, about half an hour before the close today, I fastened back my bull horns.
10/15: (310133) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev--Sold my ERTS @ 45.68 for a nice gain! Had to because I'm leaving for a week and will miss their ER on Tues. Not holding through that regardless of their TA/FA. Wondering how you feel next week will be market-wise? Jim has a change of direction then, on the 19th, and I still see 1878 in the cards. The economy totally bites with all reports being negative and diesel fuel is @ 2.30$ here in NH. What does your forecast look like Zeev? Thanks
(*END*)
As I said yesterday, my bull horns are back on, though I expect some serious volatility. 1878 is not out of the question, but with us printing 1900 earlier this morning, I can take a swoon to 1878.
10/15: (310338) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, do you a target for the expected rally?
(*END*)
My first target before a meaningful retrench is 2025, for whatever that is worth...right now we seem to be giving up all the day's gains, however.
10/15: (310474) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev Oh! Hell! I'll ask you What was you last call? Bullish or bearish ? And what was the date ?
I have you bullish as of 10/6/04
(*END*)
No, on 10/6, I just got out of the second QQQ short (in essence turned neutral), my last turn was yesterday when I donned my horns (at 3:30 to be exact with the dow at a nice round 9888.88 and the Naz at 1900 #msg-4291209, and on rereading that post, I note a misquote of the Dow then...)
10/15: (310477) (*COMMENT*)
OK Zeev I'll correct that. 10/14/04 = BOT
When was your call TOP called ?
That's all I need is last TOP and BOT
Thanks in advance
(*END*)
9/20, 1925 (#msg-4080518) or so, before the minor decline of 75 points, I expected at least 1820, we got to 1850 and tured back with vengeance. Use Kayaker's thread, it is all there.
10/16: (310497) (*COMMENT*)
On 10/6 you wrote that you removed the bear suit. I think that's why folks think you were bullish on that date:
"Mind you, I don't see us going straight up here, I have removed the bear suit since the downside risk I have right now has diminished."
Were you trying to say that you were neutral?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4225989
(*END*)
I rarely go from Bear to Bull, or from Bull to Bear, naturally, I pass through "neutral" at such junctions. When asked in later posts, I suggested a retreat to the 1920/25 area, maybe as deep as the 1902 gap filling area. So far, that is where we are. Now that we got what I thought would be the full retrench (even though, I would not be surprised if we overdo by another 30/50 Naz points), it made sense to get back into bullish mode, and my cash position (around 12%) reflects that.
10/16: (310509) (*COMMENT*)
Confused?? You went from bear to bull just before the recent nose dive. You said you took your bear suitover a week ago. Make up you mind.
(*END*)
It must be my English challenged writing, when we were at 1975 (the last peak) I was at 42% cash, the breach of 1965 justified removing the QQQ hedge, which I did, now at 1900 I am at 12% cash, what else can I say? At the prior peak, at 1925, when I became bearish for at least a 100 Naz points (and shorted QQQ), I was wrong as to the extent of the decline (had expected 1820 at least, we turned on a dime at 1850). You can of course call that a bad call, it surely was, at least partially.
ZEEV, TRADING - up to ZEEV:310596, 10/17/04
10/15: (310150) (*COMMENT*)
Any thoughts on QCOM? Thanks.
(*END*)
Nope, it reached all my targets for the year and is now in "la-la" land. NHBNH is my only comment, until they don't.
10/15: (310432) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev Are we going to miss SNDK (20.32) by a penny?
(*END*)
You always buy a nickel or so above the bottom of the box, or miss it. The bottom of the ISRG box is just an iota under $24.40, I pot my bid at $24.50, had to wait till almost the end of the day befoe they gave it to me. The, they dutifully got down to $24.40, but I wonder if any of those shares were bought by the public...
10/15: (310473) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev,how could a troglodyte such as myself learn more about"The Box".
(*END*)
If you are a "troglodyte", then you must have been around in the 60' at that time, a guy name Darvas, developed that method for long term trading (in secular bull markets), there is a thread here (search Darvas) where the application and modifications of Darvas boxes are discussed.
10/16: (310521) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I know you've built your knowledge fighting on the field, but is there any book related to trading/investing strategies, valuation analysis, charts reading and what else that you read or are aware of and you would recommend?
(*END*)
Some fifteen years ago I stopped reading these books, coagulating in my own approach a lot of the good strategies proposed by the like of Zweig, Weinstein, Ney, Darvas and even Granville. I do not know of any current book that consolidates the experience of all these "masters" (and they have all had their ups and down , of course).
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:310596, 10/17/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through October 15th, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:310596, 10/17/04
10/14: (309847) (*COMMENT*)
NYSE McClellan Oscillator quite oversold suggesting we are due for a bounce very soon.
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
But whether this will be a DCB or a major reversal is anybody's guess.
Some are suggesting that the possiblity of post -election chaos -- with both sides claiming massive fraud --could drive stocks considerably lower near-term.
(*END*)
You don't have much faith in our democracy? I think that the election will end up being a "non event", but only after a lot of volatility in the next two three weeks. I expect a strong bounce here. Your observation on the McClellan oscillator is correct, also note that the 5 days RSI on the dow is under 20%, a low from which strong bounces, if nothing else occur. Note that we are very close to the August lows on the dow, but the naz is a still a solid 150 points higher, and interesting divergence.
10/17: (310596) (*COMMENT*)
Joe, I'm puzzled about the 2 month rise of the transports and have started to track that index to see if it relates to anything. I'm not a DOW theory follower but understand they look at transports for confirmation.
(*END*)
There was a Dow Theory buy signal in late July when the transports confirmed the new recovery high set by the industrials in January. Since then, however, the indu almost made a new low, but that is because two stocks have suffered "unusual hits" in the indu, AGI after making a two years recovery high in early April, last week lost about 10 bucks, and MRK two weeks before lost an unusual $15, these two "recalibrated" the dow by close to 200 points down. For a little while here, the Dow theory is skewed by these "unusual" events.
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:310596, 10/17/04
10/12: (308488) (*COMMENT*)
Crude wasn't 54 dollars and rising in July, how long the market can wear blinders to crude and lame/lame tech outlook remains a day by day matter with me--but i remain cautiously bullish as long as market is saying "i got my blinders on":).
(*END*)
I think it is the direction of the price of crude that will determine market direction, not the price itself, if crude declines to the high $40 in the next few days, we may have the run to 10/19 as Jim dictated...
10/12: (308581) (*COMMENT*)
ok Welles.....then how can you expect "an explosion" in crude prices next year? <g>
(*END*)
The high oil prices will further squeeze consumer and together with creeping interest rates could cause a consumer led recession to take hold, due to lack of growth in end demand. If job growth would have been substantial (#msg-3744943, and #msg-3318702), that consumer led recession could have been delayed, but I think Welles is right, we should start and feel a recession around mid year next year, that means the current map with a February nassacre is probably not too far from what the market might actually do.
10/13: (308672) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, given your February start for a Nassacre, when do you guess the bottom for that run will be reached?
(*END*)
I'll know better earlier in the next year, right now, I would not be surprised to see a minor low toward the end of March beginning of April, but then two other lows in early July and October. It could also develop into a longer drop not ending till about mid March 2006. We'll see how the internals and economy behave.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
10/04: (304819) (*COMMENT*)
My weekly indicators says to buy SP500 since early Aug. for 8 straight weeks. Had I listen I would be up 5%.
(*END*)
On August 6 I posted a number of posts suggesting a powerful run to the 1933/65 area (see Kayakers' thread), when we got to 1925 in mid September, I had enough (and much more than a 5% improvement of the folio). The question is really what next, was the swoon to 1850 all we get for a late September early October retrench? Somehow, I don't think so, even though the EPC series urely indicates that might be the case.
10/04: (304827) (*COMMENT*)
The EPC is one positive for this move up.
What do you see as negatives that support the case for more of a retrench.
(*END*)
Low volume, bad chart on the dow (and divergence with the transports), some of the BP's indicate we are not yet "ready", NASI and NH/NL could b a little better. Nothing, however indicating any major disaster, just more backing and filling. I still think that post the October uncertainties (seasonal, earnings and elections) we have a major run up. Quite possibly that has already started.
10/05: (305539) (*COMMENT*)
Bullish dip Zeev....everything is setting up in bullish flag patterns on this dip. Expect 1965 to get taken out with zest over the next few sessions. Volume contracting as well as bull flags form.
(*END*)
You may be reading that right, though, that can turn on a dime....
10/06: (306290) (*COMMENT*)
Yup, and if we close above 1965, my bear suit goes back to the cleaner.
10/06: (306316) (3:58:48 pm) (*COMMENT*)
Knocking at 1965+ door again. Will it open or not. We will know in the fullness of time...
(*END*)
And taken, so the QQQ short was covered here at $36.59, a loss of $.72. But it served its purpose. Bear suit went to cleaner here. Will rebuild position to the 75%/85% when bargains offered in the next few weeks. Current cash at 42%.
10/06: (306360) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Well what if they close it under and take it over 1965 tom or close it there any other day this week?
(Part 2)
Any close this week, and the deed is done...
(Part 3)
Zeev the scary part is if you can find that flash tick i mention, one can see this was a pre-set ramp and run--bold and brazen. When i saw the nature on that tick it screamed to me HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS ' they are very very likely now going to put the pedal to the floor'---and the last phase i feel they got the shorts racing to cover, imo. Have any political view on this?(vbg)
(*END*)
No politics on that. I would say any retrench will be fought at the 1925 area furiously.
10/06: (306415) (*COMMENT*)
"Bear suit went to cleaner here." zeev, you have a map?
(*END*)
I still expect some high volatility in the next week, particularly into expiry, but I doubt we get much under 1925 and th next resistance will now be in the 2050 or so range. When I got the suit on, indicators were flashing, but we got only a 75 points decline (1925 to 1850 or so) and the subsequent run did not stop at 1965, the major resistance, the wise thing for dark siders is to step aside. I did with the meager QQQ short I had.
10/06: (306416) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev- does bear suit in the cleaners mean you no longer expect a 100 pt. drop from wherever this ends? What is your next target point (for a IT high?) tia
(*END*)
If we go straight to 2050 or so, yes we could have then (later this month or next) a sharp drop of more than 100 from there (getting us essentially where we are now). I think that for the next few weeks, including a possible decline, the 1925 should serve as a good barrier (actually, that is a "safe level", technically, the old 1940 Maginot line comes back into play). I am not saying chase anything (I myself am at 42% cash and will deploy slowly into retrenching issues, not breakouts).
10/06: (306439) (*COMMENT*)
<the wise thing for dark siders is to step aside>
Zeev, you certainly may be right, and we go to 2050; however, right now we are overbought - big time. IMO there will be a better chance to close short positions within the next few days.
I am trading SMH; we are 0.50 away from the major barrier @32.50. I suspect SMH will not reach this level.
(*END*)
I did not say step out at once, and we probably are still going to get some nasty swoons down, I just do not think these will have much continuation, providing, of course that we do not get sentiment indicators extremely bullish too fast. Very short term, all the RSI (except Dow) are extremely stretched and the market needs a good breather to get these down a little.
10/07: (306993) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I second the question concerning the new plan.
Since you moved to the bullish camp, it seems that you would like to modify your map for the rest of the year. Or do you expect that we go up both before and after elections? Given overall high degree of bullishness right now, IMO this is unlikely.
(*END*)
The plan has not changed much, we had a retreat from 1925 to 1850, thus missing a good 30 points from the target, the bounce now is stronger than I expected, and could be the leg starting mid October (which was in the original plan) leading to a year end rally into January to a new recovery high on the Naz. The details may vary, one fork has a minor local high next week, but no conviction one way or another till early November. Jim has a high on 10/19 and then a sharp decline into November before the rally resume, he may be right and if the 10/19 peak is associated with excess optimism, then I may join his map.
The decline today was sufficient to bring most RSI's back into neutral, EPC is quite bullish still. I do not see too much bullishness around. Mind you, we have a minor gap to 1942 to fill, that may happen early tomorrow. Asian markets are not particularly under pressure, so we may find that this retrench ends before noon tomorrow.
10/07: (306994) (*COMMENT*)
I got whipsawed removing my short yesterday, about $.07 from the top (g), c'est la vie, had to move when 1965 seemed to be taken out. There are two gaps (1942 and 1902) which may need to be filled, but my guess is that we will need more excess optimism like an EPC around .5 before a more significant retrench occurs.
10/08: (307342) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, maybe I missed something, but if the 1942 gap was so important (it certainly was), why isn't the 1902-1908 gap of Oct 1 important too?
(*END*)
It is, but I doubt it will be closed before we get some serious over optimism. Furthermore, the 1925 should now serve as a major support, after all, it was a major resistance on the way up.
10/08: (307415) (*COMMENT*)
don't you think you unzipped your bear suit a little early. Do you really think 1920 serves as support? We broke important support of 1132 on the S&P. October tax loss/gains sells hasn't yet kicked in.
(*END*)
Nope... look at the P/C and EPC ratios, jumped back toward the top of the range after barely a day and a half of selling. Pessimism is still rampant.
10/08: (307532) (*COMMENT*)
Geez Zeev, maybe you just 'gave up' on the 100pt COMP down a day early?
(*END*)
Is that what you expect? I surely do not like the 1920/25 giving way that easily, this area, as a resistance on the way up should have served to provide at least a mild bounce.
10/09: (307720) (*COMMENT*)
IF Oil decides to drop fast and hard short term, want to talk about a coiled spring for the markets.
Not the time to be short ANYTHING here!!!!
Dow will explode to the upside.
(*END*)
Wow, West, we seem to be on the same wavelength, I'd better check my parameters again, they too indicate a short term mini run.
ZEEV, TRADING - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
10/05: (305766) (*COMMENT*)
You are correct, it did. If I recall , you were able to get Bste, but Jcom stayed a little above your bid .
(*END*)
C'est la vie, I often have more OB's than I really want exposure, this way I am assured bargain prices (like SLXP <g>, not bargain enough.)
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through October 8th, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
10/08: (307675) (*COMMENT*)
One indicator i take rather seriously is the NDX RSI-14Daily in terms in intermediate term. It, per my IQRealtime charting, has not broken below 50 on a DOWN move since July 2nd. It broke above 50 on 8/24. It closed at 50 today, this the 4th time it has touched 50 since 8/24. Thus i view monday to be important to see if the pattern of bouncing off RSI-14/50 daily holds or breaks down. Just checked COMPX and its' situation is identical to NDX.
(*END*)
Interesting observation, even though the August lows in the indices were lower than either May or March, we got extreme pessimism in the prior two bottom. We are not reaching that level of pessimism here, but I don't think we need to in order to resume a march to Jim's 10/19 forecasted cycle top.
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
10/05: (305356) (*COMMENT*)
Kasriel's Outlook
Paul Kasriel, Director of Economic Research at Northern Trust gets a huge gold star for his analysis of what will happen to the US when the dollar is revalued (whether we like it or not) by the foreign countries that have until recently been co-addicts to our debt bubble. Click to
http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/
and then open the October 01,2004 presentation (It's a .PDF file). Our favorite part (page 21:
RESULTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD "SHOCK" THE HIGHLY-INDEBTED HOUSEHOLD SECTOR
RESULTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD "SHOCK" AN EXPENSIVE HOUSING MARKET
A "SHOCKED" HOUSING MARKET COULD SEVERELY DAMAGE THE BANKING SYSTEM
He also notes that the ""P/E" for housing is the highest in history. So, when the music stops, household wealth will tank, which killed consumer spending which will ripple to high unemployment, which will lead to mortgage defaults, which would put more pressure downward on real estate, which could cost lenders dearly and the cycle will grow. But as he points out in slide 30 "BUT DON’T WORRY ABOUT THIS RISK CASE BECAUSE ALAN GREENSPAN HAS ASSURED US THAT THERE IS NO HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE." Errr....
All of this makes good economic sense to us - well done to Kasriel and Northern Trust for telling it (eloquently) like it is.!
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
(*END*)
Unless the rise in rates is fast and catastrophic, I don't expect a major shock in the housing market. I am more worried about economic activity contraction due to consumer increasing its savings rates and thus reducing consumption and end demand. I think that until 30 years rates reach the 7% to 7.5%, the effect on housing will be gradual not "shocking".
ZEEV, GOLD - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
10/05: (305 (*COMMENT*)
zeev your calls of late are quite good, but we both missed this gold/silver run.. ive procrastinated for 2 weeks, and never bought....gggrrr
(*END*)
Yup, missed that gold run, not paying attention, unfortunately.
ZEEV, AXIS OF EVIL - up to ZEEV:307778, 10/10/04
10/06: (ZTTP: 71230) (*COMMENT*)
"For us to unilaterally invade another sovereign country, we need to feel and demonstrate such a country poses a clear imminent present danger to us. That has been the normal agreed upon threshold for defensive preemptive war since the end of WWII. Now we have a new standard."
If the leader of the country in question has been known to violate human rights, to say the least, on an ongoing and continuous basis, would that change your opinion?
We know over the centuries that kind of behavior has been found to be acceptable, under International Law, because of the practical reason that other countries were not practically able to correct the situation; do you actually find it to be acceptable, and right?
If you were living in one of those countries where sovereign leaders raped good people's rights, under International Law, how would you feel about it?
The biggest JOKE, in all of this, is that "other countries did not agree with us." FRANCE was found to have their name PLASTERED on illegal munitions found in Iraq during the war.
Would you care to defend their decision to prevent legitimate diplomacy because of their selling illegal arms to Iraq?
(*END*)
If we follow your rationale, we get back to pre WWII international order where conflicts are started at the drop of a hat, the murder of a prince to start WWI, the fabricated Polish aggression against Germany etc. The whole idea of bringing conflicts to the UN is to avoid conflicts and attempt all possible non aggressive solutions to conflicts. After all, are we invading Sudan after 20 years of genocide the Khartum regime has inflicted on its southern christian and animist population? No, why, because Sudan is not pausing a "Clear and present" danger to the US. It turns out that Iraq did not pause such a danger and we knew it. The invasion of Iraq was based on the implementation of an ideology to "forcefully" democratize the middle east, the WMD presence was a lie fabricated to set a causis belli. The government lied to us to fabricate the excuse just as they lied with the Tonkin bay events leading us into the Vietnam quagmire.
Once we recognize that is indeed what happened, we should ask ourselves, what "facts" fabrication will they undertake to lead us into the other "Axis of evil" countries and into Syria. If you want to see us involved in fighting in these countries as well, go ahead and vote for keeping the current administration on.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:304738, 10/03/04
09/27: (301562) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, are you still thinking the max SOX rinse in oct is to 360?...or closer to the 61.8% fib retrace of 345?
(*END*)
I don't know yet if we hold at 1820 or so or go all the way to retest the 1750, in the latter case, I think the SOX could drop to 340.
09/27: (301694) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, you got any other "points to watch" higher than 1820 here? Because of end of month, I am thinking we could turn a bit higher than that....any secondary points?
BTW- Great job nailed the IT top last week
(*END*)
1820 was the worst I expected for the week, but the bounce (two to three days) after that is quite mild and bound by 1876. A slightly more likely low is the 9/3 low of 1841, we probably end up printing between these two either tomorrow or Wednesday as per plan.
09/28: (302365) (*COMMENT*)
any change to this week's map?...based on today's up movement
(*END*)
No, we had a local bottom, just a little above my target earlier today, I may have to raise the top for the rest of the week by a possible 15 Naz point from 1875 to 1890, that the only "material change. We may very well end up with a "G & C" tomorrow morning setting that top...
09/28: (302405) (*COMMENT*)
I truust you are now seeing 1750 as a more likely possibilty for early October?
(*END*)
Give me another day or two...I still want to see on the next swoon (probably next week, but possibly starting Thursday) how 1820 is handled.
09/29: (302870) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev, most of what I was watching yesterday suggested more down after a test of this level. However, volume on the COMP today is on pace for 1.76 Billion shares. The last time we tagged this level it was 20% fewer shares.
The advance off the lows yesterday shows an impulsive nature, while the decline off last week's highs appears corrective.
While there are certain sentiment factors such as the VIX and VXO that argue against any sustained advance here, the strength of the volume off the reversal yesterday is a sign we shouldn't be too bearish here near term.
I guess the only thing that could kill up here would be a tag of NDX 1416 or so followed by a reversal with volume near 2-Billion shares. Otherwise, we may need to consider things are looking a bit better here near term.
(*END*)
(Part 2)
I disagree this time.
(Part 3)
I know you're busy probably working on a project, but I wonder if you'd care to elaborate a bit. I've found the drop off the highs last week and the subsequent recovery to be quite a bit different than I anticipated as far as the structure is concerned.
If today's volume ends up 1.5 Billion shares, the intermediate picture is still down. However, 1.76 Billion shares changes this, IMO.
(*END*)
For a variety of reasons I am pretty sure we visit the 1820/33 area, and most probably under 1800 before October is over. I am quite busy raising cash here, even in losing positions like ERTS (and PLMO may follow if my ask catches...)
09/29: (302921) (*COMMENT*)
zeev, if the election outcome becomes "clear" (either way) in a few weeks, would that change your forcast
(*END*)
It just changes the timing of the bottom.
09/29: (302953) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev is the 1820 area the short term bottom before a move higher into tear end?
(*END*)
I am not sure, as I said last week, after the bounce here to just under 1900, we could go to the 1780 area in October.
09/30: (303657) (*COMMENT*)
Z, not ready to short again? (g)
(*END*)
Not really, I have a 60% chance of a drop and not much more than 100 Naz points, last time, the timing was perfect (within minutes of the top) and my probability of a 100 Naz points drop was 75%, we did not even get a full 100 drop, so far, so I'll simply have some deep OB's in place...
09/30: (303701) (*COMMENT*)
Will a close above 1900 (or your 1895/97 target) change your outlook for a decline?
(*END*)
Not really, I was expecting a possible run to the 1904, earlier, it was only the anemicity of the bounce that reduced that target by 10.
10/01: (303979) (*COMMENT*)
Only a 60% chance? I had read you to be more certain of a decline than that. What is the 40% chance?
(*END*)
It was much higher about a week ago and can easily change, today the "setup" was not convincing enough for me to short the QQQ. The general map is still intact.
10/01: (304005) (*COMMENT*)
G&C a possibility or you leaning towards a retest of highs?
(*END*)
As mentioned minutes ago to Jim, I expect a G&C here this morning.
Oops, that mention to Jim was in a PM. Sorry.
10/01: (304538) (*COMMENT*)
zeev, are you still looking for down?
(*END*)
I probably erred shorting the QQQ under $36, the test is probably early next week at around 1965, I lean to think that we don't take it out, but I don't think that the downside reaction, if we get one, will be further than 1820.
10/02: (304603) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I have a signal for a "Change of Direction Point" for October 19th.
I've had a long term signal (since April) for a "Change of Direction Point" for October 14th, but the long term signals tend to be "ballpark" and are frequently off by a few days.
Given the past history of the regular signals versus the long term signals, I'd go with the October 19th date, for the "Change of Direction Point".
(*END*)
But, is it from a bottom or a local top? I still have a local bottom in that time frame.
10/02: (304607) (*COMMENT*)
I have heard that Fridays buying was spurred by institutions rebalancing portfolios. In any case the buying was surely aided by short covering.
When do you expect a reversal?
(*END*)
As I said, we may test the 1960/65 major resistance (bottom of the June trading range). I had a G&C for Friday which surely did not materialize, we may have that Monday. If not, well, I am "caught" at a very low exposure of 50%, even worth, since I have a hedging short on the QQQ which is already under water.
10/02: (304639) (*COMMENT*)
It may've worked since 1750...but dont forget you were calling the low to be more like 18something or other - no?
(*END*)
Actually, in early August (a number of posts early in August check Kayaker's thread) when we cracked 1880, I suggested 1750 as the low the week thereafter, but yes, before that I did not think 1880 would be breached. Now I don't think we take 1965 before we revisit at least 1880, and most probably the 1820 area. I could be wrong, again.
10/02: (304640) (*COMMENT*)
Can I use this post as an excuse to hang the bear suite into the locker again? Or does the expected (mini?) swoon still justify cold season wear? (Maybe the DECK news should be taken as an indicator then <g>)
I have filled up this weeks data but wanted to check with you first before I publish.
Personally I think this move showed quite some strength and we've already begun the next leg upward. It will be a choppy one, though, as there are so many lines in the sand between here and 2153 and any of these can be used as an excuse for surprises, good or bad ones.
BTW, saw you got some BLTI as well, I agree that this one should have based here. I'm looking at TEVA now for the same reason and probably will take the bite on monday.
Andreas
(*END*)
I am still short the QQQ (though, luckily, I took $.75 on the bearsuit event), so I am still in that bearsuit, I need few more days of sweating in it before I decide if it should be taken off.
As for TEVA, every so often it takes these $2/$3 dives before stabilizing and I think another events could occur if $25.60 is taken, if that happens I may jump back in. In the market turns I may also get back in. Look at TARO as well it is basing, I have a bid in close to $22, in case it gets there.
10/02: (304643) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I see you're noticing the COMP 200SMA at around 1965. That may also coincide with an SPX double top at 1146.
I was looking for a zig-zag to test 1820-1833 COMP, but we took off.
This move reminds me of the launch from early April 2003 through June 2003. The only pullbacks were when the NDX got about 50-points above the 13-EMA, and we usually dropped to test that area at a higher level. The largest pullback was about 80 COMP points during mid-May 2003.
I think we get a dump like May 2003 for November expiration, but not October. We'll see.
(*END*)
I see 1965 as a barrier, I don't think we make it, though.
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:304738, 10/03/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through October 1st, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:304738, 10/03/04
09/29: (302529) (*COMMENT*)
Nasi has been working quite excellently this year, no head fakes. Nasi was -8 today and now just 3 points from crossing down on 10ema.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NASI,uu[w,a]daclyyay[d30][pb10!b20][vc60][ild20!la12,26....
It has been 3 for 3 on cross down on of 10ema and 3 for 3 on crossing up on 10ema. In fact it has been 6 for 6 on its first turning point this year(if one had gone long or short for intermediate play at the first down or up hook forming on NASI this year they would have been right 6 times out of 6 intermediate plays). Chart will back this claim. I do still wonder though if pre-election prop is in play, but only a clear failure such as not breaking below 1800 would leave me feeling positively a propping was in play. To be frank i see NO rational for our not testing August lows other than a prop.
(*END*)
Tough to call, there might be a shift in the EPC important levels, but without assuming some major shifts, there is too much put buying to assume a that the August lows will be taken... Maybe 1780 as worse case?
10/02: (304613) (*COMMENT*)
The Russell 2000 and Wilshire Index took out their long term multi month downtrend lines. I suspect the SP 500 is next on that list. Also on that last pullback the sellers dried up considerably. Yesterdays volume was the best over the past 2 months with stellar a/d lines on both the nyse/nasdaq .... all fwiw.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J27048757...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wlsh,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60]<i[J27049....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60]<i[J356455....
Also interesting to note some of the "OLD TECH" bellweathers are trying to carve out bottoms here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=intc,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=csco,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60] [J34569858....
(*END*)
Yes, but it took the VIX printing a new low. Any comment as to why the BPNDX did not take the local high (45) printed on the last run up 10 1925 earlier in mid September? It is almost ready to cross under its 14 DMA here. Also note the extreme in RSI here, I would say, still dangerous.
10/02: (304617) (*COMMENT*)
The BPNDX is putting in bullish divergences under the recent price lows. (See Below) I think its only a matter of time until the BPNDX breaks out. Also the VIX while being a poor indicator overall is now breaking down. Consider back in 1995/6 when we were in a similar range bound market with a VIX in the same area....what happened from there? We broke out to the upside from 96 to 2000 with a rise in the VIX. (I'm not expecting that type of move here but rather a 5th wave advance). I think the same is likely to occur here. Time will tell as always. Low volatility in the market-our tight range the past 9 months-often leads to a low VIX....when we break this range I expect the VIX to move higher not lower as it did in 1996. Time will tell as always.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$bpndx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9....
(*END*)
I agree with you on the medium term outlook (past an October low, I still expect), my point was that very short term, the market is weakening when the index prints a new recovery without leadership expansion (BP). Your observation as to the divergence between MACD and the BPNDX since the March low, is n congruence with my view that post the October low, we should expect an explosive run to mid January early February. My plan is to increase exposure over the next 2 to four weeks all the way to 80% (maybe more if the October low is nasty). Plan the play, and play the plan, has worked like a charm since we printed the August low at 1750.
10/03: (304737) (*COMMENT*)
The last time we were at such an extreme on the indicator marked a significant market top. As well, it did find a few bottoms in the bear market that followed. It's but one of many indicators, but I thought it was quite interesting that we were at similar levels to 2000.
If one could extrapolate a bit, do you or anyone else think we are experiencing a similar level of complacency as occured in 2000? That would be hard to believe.
(*END*)
I am not really sure, I think that the compression of premiums on options might be due to hedge funds using these more as hedges, but I have no statistics to back this up. We surely are at a dangerous intersection over the next three to six months, but I still think that the extreme negative reading we had at the last three bottoms (March, May and August) justify at least a "last hurrah" run into the January/February time frame, when I will probably have a "Grand to the Hills" signal with a typical "February Nassacre".
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:304738, 10/03/04
09/29: (302737) (*COMMENT*)
i am getting on 'this is a pre-election manipulation' wagon, Zeev. NASD is going against TA and against embedded seasonality. If anyone thinks this is political post they could not be more wrong. I am ONLY deducing from what i am seeing. It is now 9/29/2004 and NDX is 1405 and COMPX 1888. I suspect you don't want to think this be a manipulative prop via Secretary Snow's power to do this via feeding banks money but I also say this could happen with any administration, democrat or republican, when the race is a virtual deadheat, and as those that happen to control the Whitehouse control the Fed also. The stakes are extremely high, the law, all is fair in Love,War and Elections takes hold. I also am thinking the OVERWHELMING view, near 90% opinion i'd suspect, that believe market roars after 'doubt is removed' post election is in NO WAY a gurantee it will. We are in area where who ever wins a very significant percentage of the losing party be it republicans or democrats, depending on the result will be quite unhappy and the "doubt removal" will NOT be a factor. Viewing this a day at a time and my views if they change i will note that they have. But , for the moment, i 1) Have a strong bias we are having the market held off from a distinct eye-catching sell-off going into elections. 2} I have doubt of a rally ho after election because it is an overwhelming view it will do so. I can't commit boldly to this though because Institutionals, especially Pension Funds, machine like just start buying and buying. 3) However if the market does roar post election well into January we will have the greatest short opportunity in techs since March 2000,imho:) Welles
(*END*)
Maybe, but this is just a ripple over the general trend of the market, just as the Iowa contract on the election impacts the market as well.
10/03: (304704) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Is your roadmap after the election based on any specific outcome of the election?
(*END*)
No. It is part of the road map layed out in April 2000, #reply-13483082.
10/03: (304717) (*COMMENT*)
zeev, what would the effect would a Kerry win and a Republican controlled congress have on the mkts? vs a Bush win and a Republican controlled congress?
(*END*)
It does not change my view of next year's potential continuation of the secular bear market, after a strong beginning of the year.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:301177, 09/26/04
09/20: (298065) 1:04:14 PM and 1:16:13 PM
(*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Watch one of your Q's (Jcom) here . If it breaks above 30 ,who knows ?
(Part 2)
I am stepping aside, hybernating for now.
(Part 3)
in general, or just JCOM
(*END*)
Raised cash above 50% with the sale of the SSTI position, that is bearish.
09/21: (298575) (*COMMENT*)
I agree that short term we most likely will see the general market under pressure.
(*END*)
Looks like it, it may start with the Fed later today, but I think that yesterday's 1921 was indeed "it".
09/21: (298959) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Sold short the QQQ at $35.84.
(Part 2)
WOWSA!
IS that like "run for the hills" ??
(*END*)
Not really, "Run for the hills" is typically for a 300 Naz swoon down...that is just a short term hedge here for few weeks.
09/21: (299063) (*COMMENT*)
(Sold short the QQQ at $35.84.)
Wow. Not only is it a run for the hills, it's joining the bears. I hope it's a great call.
(*END*)
Not a run for the hills, I doubt that 1750 will be taken out, my most likely target is just 1820 or so, but we'll have to see how we get there before deciding, after that swoon, I still have the major run into January, maybe even early February, were "traditionally" (g), I have a "February Nassacre" (VBG).
09/22: (299656) (*COMMENT*)
If you dont mind, what is your percent cash now? 40% or so?
(*END*)
Close, actually cash now at 42% and as we go down, that percentage, will of course decline, it should be around 20% if we get to 1820, and even nil, if we breach 1780 or so. Is that rational
09/23: (300358) (*COMMENT*)
FWIW I believe todays action is probably setting us up for another big down day tomorrow with 1895-1900 now acting as resistance, any thoughts or too soon to tell?
(*END*)
Not sure, I think that we have another ramp just above 1900 before we take the plunge, we mayget that later today or may be early tomorrow. The 10,000 on the Dow will act as some psychological resistance, but once taken, then yes, we plunge hard for few days.
09/24: (300820) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, low volume, up with a high TRINQ. They're going to flush this again on Monday/Tuesday, IMO.
(*END*)
Yup, and a local interim low on the 28th/29th (see yesterday note #msg-4116089). In preparation I am trying to get out of few position ...
09/24: (300864) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
There's a Dow fork and a re-trace level at 10,014. Dow now is showing relative strength vs the COMP, so Dow may slowly drain while the COMP moves a bit swifter. I think this leg down is reigned in by COMP 1972 by Tuesday. We'll see.
(Part 2)
I have 1820 for next week's low on the Naz.
(Part 3)
Hey Zeev....what happened to the good old days when you would give a date and time for that 1820 low. How am I supposed to trade this? <G>
(*END*)
Tuesday, 11:48, AM
09/24: (300934) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, what is your high on Naz for next week?
(*END*)
Right now I expect Monday and tuesday to be bad, maybe getting us down to 1820, then bounce to around 1875 intraday toward the end of the week, and resume the decline.
09/24: (300939) (*COMMENT*)
Then you should short QQQ.
(*END*)
Tough to do that with a very high EPC ratio, my "model" may be "full of it". I would short the QQQ if I had a 80% confidence my model was right, such as earlier this week, right now it is just about 60%...
09/24: (300998) (*COMMENT*)
As said, I got "big shoulders" (g). Just be ready for at least two tough days in the semi sector early next week, the reason I am without a single semi here.
09/25: (301136) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, excuse me if this is redundant but with the swift downside already to 1880.... by Tues or so do you now think the probablilites favor a retreat to the August lows of 1750 or so after a bounce this week from around the 1820 level?? Seems early Oct. could indeed be weak...thanks in advance..
(*END*)
No opinion yet, I had the possibility of 1750 or even a marginal breach before the end of October, but will have to refine as we approach 1820 (still mid day Tuesday, Jeanne may delay that to Thursday when it hits New York)this week and see the nature of the bounce toward the end of the week.
ZEEV, TRADING - up to ZEEV:301177, 09/26/04
09/20: (298380) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I see you're bearish here in spite of a CBOE put/call ratio of 0.92 today. We've not really seen local highs with that kind of ratio.
There are also triple tops on the NDX and COMP (well triple bottoms also, but we'll get those later), with the 3rd high today. I think those need to be reconciled with higher highs.
I just hope you don't have to "beat your breasts" too hard this weekend for being a bit early here <G>
(*END*)
I may be premature, but the Naz printed a new recovery high, with very bad brea(d)th, contraction of new highs, in volume, and the Dow actually breached 10190, something is fishy, I think that after the fed's firework (whichever they are), we will start declining in earnest. Cash is now at 52%, I failed to mention the bucker taken from ERTS early on, I was otherwise occupied.
Despite my bearish stance, I play mostly the ranges of each stock, so, for instance if I can get back in ERTS at a fair discount ($47 to $47.5), I would reenter despite the bearish stance, just as I reentered ARO and CMN today, but I may not wait for a print of a new high on the like of SLXP, ZBRA, BLL, APSG and HANS etc. to take profits. If profits offered they will be taken and reentries planned at discounts, hopefully to the last entry. I will also try and selectively play the days swings in TZOO (hopefully, better than today), TASR, NVEC and some of the Q, but will try and limit such exposure to no more than 20% (max five positions, though lately I cannot handle that many).
09/21: (299147) (*COMMENT*)
Sold Short? Now when was the last time you did something like that? Most unlike you from what I have read from your posts.
(*END*)
It is not a specific stock it is a 5% hedge, and I may add to it at $36.25 to $36.5 if the QQQ get there. It is instead of buying gold miners, which I think may retreat as well here. Done (QQQ hedge) before, I don't consider it a guess on a specific stock direction, but on market direction. I have suggested short stocks many times in the past, though , personally, I don't really like shorting specific stocks. Take is as an "announcement" that the bear suit zipper is unstuck. (g).
09/22: (299210) (*COMMENT*)
Say it ain't so Joe! Ya done gone to the dark side!
(*END*)
What dark side? I have been telling you guys that my bear suit was back from the cleaner and that I am ready for a short stint in the suit, for more than two weeks now, the target date was Monday, and I garbed it yesterday. Furthermore, that was not a very "satisfactory" top either, so we may meander creepingly up for a little longer.
09/22: (299358) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
just bought the qqq's for a bounce on the day. we'll see.
(Part 2)
Good luck, any target exit?
(Part 3)
if 35.00 is violated for a stop cover and 37 ish for a sell
(Part 4)
Got pretty close to $35, I just covered, I did not expect such a sharp retrench on the first day and $.75 in barely a day was too much, will reestablish the Q short at around $35.50.
(Part 5)
Zeev, the first time you post a short sale is one tick from the top!
(*END*)
Actually, that was a market order, and the market was unstable, my average was $35.82 and I covered few minutes ago at $35.07 for $.75. This time they took the whole in a single trade.
09/22: (299396) (*COMMENT*)
Seems odd that if you do not expect a return to today's high that you would lift a hedge. Are you going to actively trade QQQ now?
(*END*)
No, but in one day I got 50% of what my target was for three four weeks on that, it had to be taken. It is not as if I am "certain" that we go to 1820...
09/22: (299469) (*COMMENT*)
This makes no sense and I will tell you why. If you are good at picking longs and then selling for profits then all you have to do is reverse your thinking. If you are long a stock, and then sell...you did that for a reason. You think it is going lower. Why not just short as soon as you sell what you are long? If you dont think that is a good strategy than you should not have sold your long in the first place
(*END*)
If you know how to take emotions out of the equation, fine, you can do that, I can't. It is easy for me to "root" for a stock to make new high, I just cannot root for a stock to decline as many here can (what is their battle cry, die, pig, die...)
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:301177, 09/26/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through September 24th, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:301177, 09/26/04
09/22: (299471) (*COMMENT*)
Quite the spike in the EPC ratio
(*END*)
Indeed, that is one reason that decline might not even achieve my modest goal of 1820, note that 1890 I started adding back few players...
09/22: (299663) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I haven't seen low TRINQ's in a declining market like this AM since the days after WCOM's bankruptcy. What on earth was being bought? A/D and U/D was 2:1 or greater towards down.
(*END*)
I don't know, there might be some low priced issue being bought in drove skewing the number, or maybe money is indeed flowing into winners...surely the overall advance decline ratio is lopsided. The trin finally did get to a more rational 1.22 or so (NAZ).
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:301177, 09/26/04
09/26: (301152) (*COMMENT*)
When I look at the $TYX or the TLT, which you trade, it seems to tell me that the market is expecting a recession to start late in the first quarter of 2005 - falling prices, weaker dollar, and weaker gold.
Is this consistent with your timing of your economic model? I haven't seen this discussed lately.
(*END*)
That is what the TLT is saying, but the TLT has been wrong before. The DJT is saying the economy has few more quarters of good (not great) expansion ahead of it. I do have a recession starting in the second half of 2005 or there about, and the market discounting it from a high late in January early February next year on... The fed may have another 4 to 5 tightening steps to get to around 2.75% to 3.25%, a place from where they then can stand against the wind and attempt another soft landing of the 2005 consumer led recession (at least according to my long term scenario from April 2000).
ZEEV, ANKLE BITERS - up to ZEEV:301177, 09/26/04
09/23: (300500) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Brainless, Holly doesn't bother me in the least ,in fact, I'm not sure what that post contained that got her banned. It was indeed incredible, but well within the confines of other whines I have seen here. In fact, the part about "needed help' was much more obscure, relatively. I personnally think there are a few tender ego's here that are portrayed as ultraegos, BWDIK. I better check out before I am on the S list.(g)
(Part 2)
What did she say?
Damn! I missed it
PM me if ya like
(*END*)
Message 300443, inserted here for your convenience. flg
I am sorry, but I cannot oblige. A number of posters have requested he keeps shooting his arrows, and as long as these are not in the category of personal insults, nothing I can, nor desire to do. Many others take pot shots (at me as well), and there is really nothing to do about it but let it go and shout "NEXT".... Use the "Ignore feature" if he really disturbs you so much.
Just to make it clear, I am not the one that has deleted Holly's post to which #msg-4114535 was my response. Matt has a personal peeve with her relating to her relationship" with you. So, consider yourself and you quiver of arrows the guilty party. (g). You still have not learned that world spoken (written) cannot be reswallowed. In one of your posts (#msg-4103329)you even suggest that you mean to post words that hurt other posters. Of course, it is your business, but you should know that in my humble opinion, only misanthropes intentionally try to hurt other people who's only sin is that you consider yourself (why, I know not) superior to them.
Maybe, next time you intend to hurt someone, think twice, not just once before you press submit? Hey, maybe think just once, which is seems you too often failed to do, before pressing the "Submit post" window.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:297683, 09/19/04
09/12: (294156) (*COMMENT*)
I can't see the why but one of the "biggy" TA newsletter guys is calling for likehood of indexes smashing upwards to new new highs in the major indexes over the next 6 months based on ONE indicator, he says because last weeks rally in $SOXX looks like it's bounce in Oct 2002 and March 2003. I don't think calls can be that easy:), but there it is, the guy from Hong Kong is pushing this.
(*END*)
I have a similar scenario for the next four/five months...
09/13: (294515) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, if this buying keeps up we'll have about the lowest 5-day reading on the TRINQ since probably early June 2003 if I recall correctly.
(*END*)
I think we are pretty close to my mid September top here, we reached the lower part of the target range already.
09/13: (294736) (*COMMENT*)
Is Jcom needing a rest here? Considering your map that the market pulls back ,should some be taken off the table or does the move above 30 signal more upward pressure (nhbnh's). I thought I would be out of it now ,but it sure looks strong .As a side note, I did my first short in a while on CCmp today (37.10).Thought behind this trade was if the market swoons , this will be taken down hard.It sure looked fine to see ole'Bste above 50.It has been over a year since it was last there . How did you do today (besides Merq)?
(*END*)
MERQ was a big victory even though I eft almost a bucker on the table, it was a quad position. Also extricated myself from a number of positions, it was mostly a day to get ready for stormy weather and accumulate cash for redeployment in stronger issues. Missed a big run on TZOO not willing to chase it.... In the next few days, probably will take ZRAN and maybe even SSTI off the table, but will add APSG back and maybe even double on CMN and HANS if they give me my price, so I'll probably be still around the 50% level on balance. As for JCOM, you have a nice move there, I would take at least some off the table, put an order at about $31.5, and have a mental stop just under $28, that is what I would do if I still had it. As for shorting CCMP, I whish you luck, $40 would have been closer to major resistance, I think the current box s probably $35 to $40 on it.
09/13: (294737) (*COMMENT*)
zeev, What's behind your concern over the next few weeks to come?? hasn't been here for a while..
(*END*)
First, so far we have followed the early August map to a "t", so why not accept its "judgment"? Many oscillators ae now moving into overbought, not a big deal, and I still think that a retreat will be well behaved (and probably not here yet, give it another 20 to 35 Naz points or so), but taking few chips of the table for repositioning seems "prudent" at this stage, good profits were made in the last three weeks, and "booking them" is just a good "habit". Stocks I like will find a way to go back to "buying range" (HANS, APSG and CMN did today...).
09/14: (295353) (*COMMENT*)
Thanks Zeev! Out @ EOD and lost a couple of six packs of Killian Red! Anxiously awaiting a swoon here as I'm short a few issues. Looking for a reversal soon.
(*END*)
Be patient, the top may not come till Monday, the "window" has been extended last week, I just have one arm in my bear suit, waiting for more conclusive signals to get into the process of zipping the bearsuit up.
09/15: (296136) (*COMMENT*)
I am at 44% cash here and in the next few days will probably raise this to the 60% or so.
09/16: (296633) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev did we have the top? Next week? How long a pullback do you see I think I read 100 points.
(Part 2)
Tomorrow is the most probable top according to the turnip's map. The drop at least 100 Naz points to 1820, maybe more.
(Part 3)
By when?
(*END*)
Mid October at the earliest, maybe as late as election if the outcome is not clear cut before that.
09/17: (297450) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I'm no expert, but does the SOX chart look bullish to you?
(*END*)
Nope, on this go around, I think we saw the top on Monday when we got close to 400 intraday. Still holding the same tenet since March, BTK is a better place to be at least till the October bottom, then we might have some firework in the sox. Maybe a move to 460 (from an October low in the 350/360 area, see #msg-3779968).
By the way, went out at 50% cash here, and I still do not have a clear sell signal, so the bear suit is still only partially on.
09/17: (297470) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev what would cause you to change your outlook for a top on last Monday? Is there a target Monday that would alter the map?
(*END*)
As I have said earlier today, I still have not gotten a clear sell signal here, so I am simply following the dictum laid out by the action in the last four weeks, they indicate at least a mild retrench, if the sox takes 400 with high volume, for instance, or if we take 10400 on the dow, and particularly not take out 10190 next week, and the EPC continues to behave, I may avoid getting in that bear suit. Right now, I expect after a possible early up Monday to see a typical G&C, and if that expectation is what evolves, I think that we get that retrench starting here. I am going to be very careful not to give back last month gains.... And up trend day Monday, would increase the probability that the bear suit should not yet be on.
On the negative side, failure to take out the 7/21 high at 1933, is bothersome, I thought this run by now would take us at least to 1940, for a fake "take out" before we turn.
09/18: (297526) (*COMMENT*)
If we get a retrench, it will be a mild one IMO ... whatever happens in the near term, I increasinly believe we are in the early stages of an uptrend that will last for a while...
(*END*)
If the sox fails to take 400 soon here, the retrench could be some 200 Naz points, that is my worst case scenario, the likely scenario is holding above 1820. Next few days might be critical.
09/18: (297527) (*COMMENT*)
Ajtj99...
Thanks for your comments....I've found that when stocks/indices form a higher right shoulder in a pattern it tends to be much more bullish than when the pattern is more symmetrical. Take a look at this development on the 60 minute chart ... if this breaks out measures to the 1940 area.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]ehcayiay[d20][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J31272...
(*END*)
The problem is that we have a very congested area in the 1933/1965 on the Naz, and even if we take 1933, it might be just a set up fr a sharp retrench. Note the tough seasonality (end of September beginning of October) we are in, amplified by still uncertainties throth in crude prices, Iraq and the elections.
I would expect more warnings to come down the pike and with insider selling reaching some kind of a top here, I think my "careful" stance might be the "safe" play for now. Note also that the NAHL has made a mild double top here, which might signal short term reversal. On the other hand, EPC is behaving quite well, but overall volume is quite tepid. The chart itself could easily turn into a fight to retake the trading range of the 7/14-7/21 period (1875 to 1933 with higher average volume than the current volume). If 1892 is taken out, even intraday, the resolution of that fight might be continuation and taking out 1875, leading to at least a test of 1820 from 8/31, maybe even worse.
ZEEV, TRADING - up to ZEEV:297683, 09/19/04
09/13: (294749) (*COMMENT*)
(I've quoted message_id=4017690 for the reader's convenience flg)
The suggestion of a 100 to 200 Naz points retrace from around the 1950 area, id from long term oscillators, the short term oscillators , while approaching levels (only some) which will confirm such a retrench, have not gotten there yet, this week, particularly the end of the week will be critical in determining if that is in the cards or not. I am not waiting till the last minute however to take defensive posture and have already lowered exposure some, I might even lay out a minor defensive QQQ short toward the end of the week if the short term oscillators justify such a stance.
Zeev has mentioned going short.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4017690
Why??????
In all my time here, he has never touched a short.......uhm....that I know of.
Anybody else seen him even mention the possibility?
I've brought this up a few times......and even he, never responded to my post to him about it.
I thought he had said he never shorts sometime back.
...so why now????
...for a lil 100-200 turn down??
Thought that was easy for him to handle........
Hmmmm.........
Zeev, why is this time different?
(*END*)
Actually, on rare occasion I will go short an ETF, typically the QQQ to hedge left over long positions. I don't post these, but mentioned it few times. many PM's have asked me to post when I actually start laying that hedge, so I will try and do it this time. There is a big difference between shorting a specific stock and an ETF, a stock has its own mind, an ETF will follow the general direction of the market.
09/14: (294766) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Surprised you never picked up on the IWM as a trading vehicle..
By far one of the best ETFs to daytrade
(Part 2)
I don't usually day trade ETF, the daily range is too small, for real daytrading you need volatility...
(Part 3)
Actually thats why I mentioned IWM.. Seriously, check the chart and tell me if you dont see enough volatility there?
Extremely liquid, although very expensive
(*END*)
You are right, it seems even more volatile percentage wise than the QQQ, but not by much. Since many of my stocks are QQQ type, it make sense to hedge with the QQQ.
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:297683, 09/19/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through September 17th, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:297683, 09/19/04
09/14: (294785) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, is there any rational explanation for this "closing the gap" syndrome on any stock? This seems to be something everyone looks for on a chart. Thanks
(*END*)
Mass Psychology, there are not many buyers and sellers in the gap, when a stock gaps down and continue down, a lot of bag holder are praying for the stock to get back and "promise" to sell if it ever gets to the bottom of the gap, thus that becomes resistance, the same with the top of a gap, but not much within the gap. Try and look up charts with "Volume by price" to identify congested area.
09/17: (296956) (*COMMENT*)
SEMI equipment charts updated with SEMI August data
http://home.comcast.net/~gottfriedm/SEMIcharts/eqporders.gif
http://home.comcast.net/~gottfriedm/SEMIcharts/chipsales_SEMIbookings.gif
http://home.comcast.net/~gottfriedm/SEMIcharts/chipsales_SEMIbillings.gif
Gottfried
(*END*)
Thanks, BTB at 1 not very rosy...
09/18: (297504) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev....good morning, technically this is OT, but I thought you may want to give it a whirl:)
I have a friend on another stock board who posed this query. I was lost at Chi Square, but it seems like a problem you have the intellectual mastery to answer.....here it is....
I have some "count" data with lots of zeroes - number of people getting on and of busses at each stop. Seems like it would be suited for a poisson regression. The independent variables are things like pop. density around the bus stop and expected level of transit service - not that that really matters, but just fyi.
Now, with a plain ol' vanilla OLS linear regression, the r-squared tells you something very valuable. You can have a good t-statistic for your coefficients, but a really low r-squared, and, imo, such a "model" is worthless for its predictive power when the r-squared is low.
So, here's my question: since a poisson regression has no r-squared, what do you suggest as an indicator of the predictive ability of a model that is based on a poisson regression?
(*END*)
I can't help you (your problem is ill defined and I am not sure your variable(s) follow Poisson distribution to which Poisson regression would be applied in lieu of normal multivariable linear regression). Frome has done a lot of work on Poisson regressions here is his web page:
http://www.csm.ornl.gov/~frome/
There are a number of articles on the use of Poisson regressions and the use of ML (most likely) instead of least mean squares.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:294142, 09/12/04
09/06: (291991) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, about that Feb nassacre - one has to wonder: in the last 5 years, buying in January hasn't been a good strategy, except in Jan 2003, maybe. So what is it that drives the market higher in January? You would think that folks would learn...
(*END*)
Two factors in most years, entries into stock beaten by tax losses, and deployment of new funds from retirement accounts. Typically there is also seasonal strength due to "glowing" reports from the Christmas selling season. Often the best entry is a day or two before X-mas and exciting no later than the middle of January or the week of expiry.
09/07: (292270) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Hans $29 hod, 29.1 52 wk hi. NHBNH soon?
(*END*)
We are getting close to a local market top, I don't have it, but I would take profits on HANS if I had any.
09/07: (292276) (*COMMENT*)
Do you have a cash level plan for the EOD?
(*END*)
Hopefully around the 30% to 35%, by end of the week, 50% is the target cash level. I was hoping we at least challenge 1900 by the end of the week, but right now we have problems achieving my ED target of 1870...yet, 2:22 is just around the corner, let see if the ramp resumes.
09/07: (292326) (*COMMENT*)
Does the fact many Semis are making yearly lows today change your outlook? TIA.
(*END*)
My outlook is for a high between 9/7 to 9/14, that has not changed.
09/08: (292873) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, You may very well have answered this, but I don't see it anywhere. What was the reasoning behind the revision of the original +2300 to +2500 call in the Sept. - Oct. time frame downards to the 1900 - 2000 range you have now? Was it simply because we went lower than was originally expected?
(*END*)
I think you will find the updates reasoned out here: #msg-3751323, #msg-3753191, #msg-3754457 and #msg-3754474 from a month ago, and reiterated ten days later (after the expected swoon to 1750 occurred without breach) in for instance, #msg-3837155, #msg-3853978, #msg-3873500 and - #msg-3873500.
I must add that we are not developing so far the type of internals that would lead to a top by the 14th and that top may take till the 16th/17th, maybe even as late as the 20th. If we do not develop internal excesses, we might even be saved from a major October calamity. I was planning to slowly raise cash to 50% by the end of this week and into the 14th possibly even higher, but so far cash is at 26%, and I may delay the exposure reduction plan by a little.
09/09: (293504) (*COMMENT*)
35%? You must be expecting an asteroid to hit any day now <g>
(*END*)
I took a lot of profits today (and also a loss on BRCM), that raises the cash level, furthermore, the plan is still to get to at least 50% cash for the late September early October swoon, even though it may take few more days than planned.
09/09: (293505) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Did today's action move your set of topping internals enough to get you back to the Sept. 7th/14th date range or are you still looking at the end of next week?
(*END*)
No, for now it is still closer to the 15/16 window.
09/10: (293573) (*COMMENT*)
Z: What is your map for today? Thx.
(*END*)
I don't have a good map. Got to see if 1876 is taken out or not , if it is we can continue with a challenge of 1900 by the middle of next week, and a top probably late in the week or on Monday after that in the 1920/1950 area as suggested since early August.
09/10: (293672) (*COMMENT*)
All the way to 2300.....
...turnips are just off a few months...that's all.....
(*END*)
No, I still think we are going to see some very stiff resistance here in the 1920/50 range.
09/10: (293833) (*COMMENT*)
Canny, turnips haven't been this bullish since last November!
Dow transport index reaches 5-yr. high ($TRAN) By Tomi Kilgore NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN) was rallying 25 points to 3,219, reaching a 5-year high in intraday trading, as a slide in crude prices sparked a mid-afternoon rally. The index has now run up 5.8 percent in the past month and 17 percent from its mid-March low. The index reached a high of 3,223 earlier in the session, the highest price seen since August 1999. Crude futures were last down 1.80, or 4 percent, to $42.81 as traders began betting that Hurricane Ivan won't hurt oil output in the Gulf of Mexico and that OPEC will agree to raise its production quota next week
(*END*)
Actually, I am getting to the point of having a short term top here in the next week or so, the rally should resume after a 100 to 200 swoon down on the Naz. I have already raised cash to close to 40% and will raise more next week, when I may actually wear a bear suit for a two to four weeks stint. Still waiting for few indicators to "fall in line".....
09/10: (293920) (*COMMENT*)
Just for the record, cash now just around 36%. Short of the original target of 50%, due to a slight change in tactics suggested two days ago (#msg-3992751), and due to the equity part of the folio, growing up drastically in the last few days (MERQ helped a lot...).
09/11: (293994) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Beware of COMPQ Double Top
>>>CYCLE/TREND Update for the week Ahead>>> #msg-4012161
(Part 2)
The old "line in the sand" at 1940, is the probable next "stop" in my charts, that is why have had for few weeks now a range of 1920/50 for next week. Originally the 14th was supposed to be the top, but so far internals are not showing enough "degradation", so I have "delayed" this to possibly the 16/17, and maybe as late as Monday the 20th of September. I expect internal to deteriorate, but for that that we need some more "recklessness" in the market, that is still relatively absent. In preparation, have already raised cash nicely...
(Part 3)
While this may be redundant in my asking, but being as you have 1940 as the line in the sand I take it you don't believe we will have any trouble negotiating with 1900? I guess I have my doubts about getting through 1900 easily and if we were to do that, then 1965 seems like the next likely resistance...
(*END*)
There is a minor congestion at 1896 from 7/30, however, internals have not degraded and getting through a more important congestion from last week at 1876, should allow enough momentum for the next 10 Naz points, taking 1900, maybe even on a gap up Monday. It is unusual to close smack at a real resistance area. Furthermore, both the NDX (1412)and QQQ ($35.10) took ut the 7/30-8/2 congestion, I assume the Naz will as well.
09/12: (294094) (*COMMENT*)
Nasi level of spread between present level and the 20ema is now 299 points above 20ema---this is a maxed out spread in imo. That top is at hand---like your 1950. Only caution is all goes askew if we sell hard beginning of week . Only shallow reason i cast forth for such a caution is the NASI spread of virtually 300 is really pressing the envelope.
(*END*)
Maybe a G&C tomorrow morning to put in the local top? I am not sure about that (still have the end of the week...). Where do you get that 300 points above 20 EMA is "dangerous? In the post 9/11, as well as the post Oct 2002, the difference often got to 400 or more and stayed this way till the next major top, the worry is when a cross over confirms a change of trend, is it not?
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:294142, 09/12/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through September 10th, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:294142, 09/12/04
09/12: (294083) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev,
Looking at the one-year chart of Naz
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nasdaq&sid=0&o_symb=nasdaq&a....
I see two major resistance areas: 1900 and 2050. Since Naz successfully climbed 150 pts from 1750 to 1900, if it can cleanly break through 1900, what is the likelihood of it climbing another 150 pts to 2050?
I know that you are looking for a pullback of 100 to 200 pts, but might it run up to 1950, pull back 50 pts to 1900, and then run 150 pts to 2050?
This is a very simplistic view. Any thoughts?
Thanks - Ken
(*END*)
The suggestion of a 100 to 200 Naz points retrace from around the 1950 area, id from long term oscillators, the short term oscillators , while approaching levels (only some) which will confirm such a retrench, have not gotten there yet, this week, particularly the end of the week will be critical in determining if that is in the cards or not. I am not waiting till the last minute however to take defensive posture and have already lowered exposure some, I might even lay out a minor defensive QQQ short toward the end of the week if the short term oscillators justify such a stance.
09/12: (294103) (*COMMENT*)
Speaking of short term oscillators, what do you make of the VIX being so low? I know you think that what matters most with the VIX is change/continuance of direction, but isn't it much more likely the change direction when it's so low? Last time it was at this level (7/14), the Naz dropped 7% pretty quickly...
(*END*)
Yup, that is one of the many danger signs for the very short term, but there are still others like BP, NASI, NHNL and EPC that are "not ready". Remember that in the March and May bottoms we did get some very great extreme in sentiment indicators, enough, IMTO, to assure a 30% eventual run from the low (set in August) and thus any retrench here, even if in October we print a marginal new low on the Naz, should be followed by what I believe will be a fabulous year end rally, providing of course, that we do not develop excess optimism in the meanwhile.
By the way, one way to interpret the low VIX, particularly when more calls are bought than puts, is that no one is willing to pay "fair premiums" for calls because they do not believe a rally is coming. It would be useful if VIX and VXN were calculated separately for calls and puts and get a measure of the differential premium, relative to "Black Sholes", that would be an excellent measure of the expectations of future market movement rather than the VIX which measure the premium on both puts and calls intermixed.
ZEEV, RATIONAL POLITICS - up to ZEEV:294142, 09/12/04
For those interested in the election and with a sufficiently open mind to consider a rational approach to the matter, I recommend reading Zeev's recent posts on the ZTTP board (#board-1245).
One place to start is at #msg-4014026 and follow the message stream backward and forward from there. Alternatively, the reader could go to #board-1245, page down to message 65225, and follow the thread from there.
Fred
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:291978, 09/06/04
08/31: (289810) (*COMMENT*)
It appears that the late Setember - October "Swoon" has come earlier than we thought !
(*END*)
I don't think so, I view this as the minor retrench from 1880, though we never got to the 1880 area per see, missed it by about 15 Naz points mentioned here #msg-3904502.
08/31: (289819) (*COMMENT*)
zEEV While i'm not concerned for the individual smaller stocks I cover...I must say that once again I don't like the price/volume evolution of the tech incumbents (MSFT, IBM, ORCL, CSCO, INTC).
I would not exclude the possibility we retest 1750...Just an observation, nothing more, nothing less
alexander
(*END*)
In October maybe, right now I still have a bounce to above 1900 before that...
08/31: (290044) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, do you think that the "low" you are referring to today or tomorrow is the last "low", then, before the ramp to 1900's you have been talking about..or do we have more down later this week?
(*END*)
My target was 1820 plus minus 10 for the retreat from the 1880 (1865) area, I think we reached it, but would not exclude another visit early tomorrow, then we should attempt a run above 1900 before 9/14, that is the current map.
09/01: (290554) (*COMMENT*)
I think I'll continue to "play" HDTV at least till next spring. As you know, I expect a swoon here within two weeks or so, and then another ramp into January maybe even early February, followed by a classical "February Nassacre"....
09/02: (290705) (*COMMENT*)
You may be better off with core like issue, here PII just printed a new yearly high, I should have waited for the yearly high before exiting, but since I have possibly only another week of a ramp here (two and a half at most), I decided to start and lighten up the longer term positions.
09/02: (290971) (*COMMENT*)
Hi Zeev: Amazing how so few traders post losses. I take a lotta losses and I'm not ashamed to say so. Part of trading is taking losses.
(*END*)
Got to show all of it, the "good, the bad and the ugly (right now my "uglies" are MERQ and LSCP, but they are trying to make a "come back". (g). HAUP last series of buys is "too ugly", but until it takes $4 with conviction, it is not even trying to play the "come back kid" (g). Naz closed at 1873, even better than the range of 1865/70 I thought it would post for a close.
09/02: (291123) (*COMMENT*)
I am still at just above 20% (23% actually) cash, even with the AH addition of INTC, if we do get a run here (which I still expect since my "top window" does not start till the 7th), I will be selling into such strength to raise cash, hope to be at around 50% plus if and when we get to the 1920/50 area, since I would not be surprised to see a low in October well under 1850, maybe even a test and mild breach of the 1750 area. Between here and that mid 1900 tops, I expect the low of this week (1820) to hold. Tomorrow we should have three elements fighting for dominance, the INTC news (will cost us a solid 10 to 15 Naz point as early on), the job number, which if above 200 K should compensate some for the INTC impact, and late in the day seasonal strength (last day before Labor day is statistically strong). No idea how all these will end up. If we get a good swoon down, I may deploy some cash for no longer than about a week or so...
09/03: (291343) (*COMMENT*)
U.S. Aug. nonmanufacturing index 58.2% vs 64.8% in July (Zeev, pretty soon someone will figure out that earnings warning season will dominate the market news in September) By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Activity in the service sectors of the U.S. decreased in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM's nonmanufacturing index fell to 58.2percent from 64.8 percent in July, indicating a slower pace of expansion. The decline was larger than expected. Economists expected the index to fall to 62.2 percent. Readings over 50 percent in the diffusion index indicate expansion in those sectors. New orders fell to 58.6 percent from 66.4 percent. The employment index rose to 52.5 percent from 50.0 percent. The prices paid index fell to 70.0 percent from 73.1 percent
(*END*)
Yes, that would not surprise me and fit with a top occurring within the next two weeks.
09/03: (291610) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, is INTC broken for awhile?
(*END*)
Definitely, as I said few times, if you want to play possible bounces in the sox, my preferences are MRVL and SNDK in the chips and CCMP in the "equipment" (bought throth today), the window for such bounces is a week or two more or less, so be nimble. Went to sleep with just above 20% cash and am planing to raise cash over the next two week to at least 50%...
09/03: (291611) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, the SOX printed new lows today. Happy Family Theory of Markets mandates new lower lows below the August lows on the COMP and probably NDX. Dow and SPX should join in as well, as this should be a major low, and the captain always goes down with the ship.
(*END*)
Yes, but the timing is another story, what do you make of the transport confirming the recovery high in the indu (Dow theory), should that not imply at least (happy family), recovery in some of the other indices above the August peaks? (Thus my 1930/50 area for the September top).
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:291978, 09/06/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through August 28th, 2004
ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:291978, 09/06/04
09/05: (291880) (*COMMENT*)
ALL SEMI and SIA charts now updated with July numbers http://home.comcast.net/~gottfriedm/index.html
(*END*)
Thanks Gottfried...
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:291978, 09/06/04
09/02: (291123) (*COMMENT*)
Jobs number tomorrow >> about 180 to 200K, while the "consensus" is 125 K <<
According to Briefing consensus is 150K which is laughable considering the "economic recovery" we're in. Agree we could get 200K since we need 150K according to most statistics just to stay even with population growth. If we get 200K the market may rally strong, but it really shouldn't get that excited imho unless we get 250K plus and the prior months get revised up. Agree with Roach who cites numerous example of how this recovery in jobs is VERY LACKLUSTER w/respect to past recoveries. We're several MILLION jobs down from past recoveries. Ok, so maybe we beat the number tomorrow by 50 or even 100K. Big deal. Economy still heading for the crapper in 2005 and beyond.
Markets only being held up through massive currency intervention currently. Were it not for Japan, China and now probably the EU we'd be seeing new lows on the Dollar index and a mass exodus out of our markets ala '87. May still happen this fall, but I'm guessing the CB's will control the rate of decent if we start to head down again and they can't even generate "fake" jobs.
Given how low the bar has been set for tomorrow the markets should be able to rally (or at least lessen the INTC news) when we "beat" the number, but if not could get interesting for gold and those who are short. Don't take this as a rant towards yourself, but rather the system that's way too focused on the "beat the number" game.
FWIW, not short this market, but have some gold and some cash.
(*END*)
I am still at just above 20% (23% actually) cash, even with the AH addition of INTC, if we do get a run here (which I still expect since my "top window" does not start till the 7th), I will be selling into such strength to raise cash, hope to be at around 50% plus if and when we get to the 1920/50 area, since I would not be surprised to see a low in October well under 1850, maybe even a test and mild breach of the 1750 area. Between here and that mid 1900 tops, I expect the low of this week (1820) to hold. Tomorrow we should have three elements fighting for dominance, the INTC news (will cost us a solid 10 to 15 Naz point as early on), the job number, which if above 200 K should compensate some for the INTC impact, and late in the day seasonal strength (last day before Labor day is statistically strong). No idea how all these will end up. If we get a good swoon down, I may deploy some cash for no longer than about a week or so...
ZEEV, CORE - up to ZEEV:291978, 09/06/04
09/02: (291130) (*COMMENT*)
From reading past posts it's my understanding that the core stocks on the board header aren't current.....? Sorry, I'm new to this board.
(*END*)
Current core issues...
COO has been taken out from the core after the last acquisition, still a good company, but the book is becoming "wobbly". Too much good will, and in a recession, a disaster waiting to happen. TBL, TTC and TLM are still in the core, only TBL and TLM are currently in buying range (under $58 and in the $21/$22.5 area respectively). PII is a core issue, but it, like COO just hit a new all time high today, taken off and waiting for a retrench to the $47/49 area to reenter. MAXF is buyable here under $9 for the long term. CAH and IGT have been taken out. IGT, waiting for a base in the $20/$25 area to recommit. CAH, no decision yet if and when to get it back in the core, too many issues currently unresolved. MRK we have an OB in the $39/$41 area, and JNJ in the $50 or so area. POOL still a core issue, but new positions only on retrench to the $40/$42 area. CMN a new issue just made a new all time high and waiting for retrench under $24.5 to consider reentry.
Consider that I expect a major market retrench starting some time in the next two weeks, so be patient with new entries.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:289216, 08/29/04
08/23: (287361) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I'm thinking (along w/some others) that we retrace for a couple days starting early tomorrow- around 2-3% on NDX. And then next leg. What say you? tia
(*END*)
I had today as a counter opex down day, that could continue for few hours tomorrow, I doubt we "give" 1800 before we turn, no later than Wednesday 11:30, still have the 1930/50 as target for the period 9/7 to 9/14, then a much more severe smack down. I hope they give me some reentries n the next day or two, since my cash has risen above 35% with all those profits taken in the last few days.
08/25: (288069) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, what level would you expect the "minor retrench" to go? Are you talking about this "minor retrench" to begin later this week, then?
(*END*)
I said 1880 the next problem. I don't know if that will be it, or the program to test 1930/50 before 9/14 will be in force after the 1880 fight. So far I am not getting any excessive optimism, so I lean toward a test of 1930/50 within three weeks.
08/26: (288560) (*COMMENT*)
Really market is quite strong internally, naz is down 8 points and 100% of any overbought is erased, dow down 8 points ish and overbought is 50% erased. Not bad. g
(*END*)
Agree, that is why it would be good if we do not close green, but just mildly red here.
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:289216, 08/29/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through August 28th, 2004
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:289216, 08/29/04
08/29: (289186) (*COMMENT*)
(This is part of an extended discussion. Interested readers should go to message 289186 and click on the link for the preceding message and on the replies.)
(Part 1)
Chaod, Newly, the US now has no choice in the matter, these programs will have to be cut back, and the cuts have to be massive. The senior population is not going to like the bitter medicine they are about to be forced-fed. AARP is going to go into convulsions before this is over.
This is but the first round of corrective action that America will be required to take. I am afraid the negative economic forces that are now starting to work upon us are, as we will all soon begin to better understand, the results of trying to borrow our way into productivity.
(Part 2)
So, what you're saying is that all the money the about-to-retire generation had taken (by force of law) from their paychecks all their working lives is to be legally confiscated by our benevolent government (who, let us not forget, instituted the program and coerced the workers to pay for it through promises of a secure retirement)?
I do not think they would dare! And if they did, these people will be too old to possibly replace the income they had counted on, so the result would simply be to drive the elderly onto the welfare system instead -- same problem, different department -- or are the elderly simply to be left to starve to death at the foot of our capitol building steps?
(Part 3)
Newly, they've created a Ponzi scheme that has to be dismantled gradually. Take me, I'm 24. Let's say we somehow keep SS as it is so that promises are kept intact for the current generation. This implies of course that I start paying for more and more retirees' benefits (actually a lot more). What about the promise to me for all I've put in? I will have had to pay even more into the system, and eventually there just won't be enough money there, well before I'm ready to retire. Wouldn't it be better to spread the burden somewhat rather than having a total system collapse at some point?
(Part 4)
I think I figured that by the time I'm 65, considering what I put in and figuring a meager 5% rate of return I should have way over a million dollars accumulated. Perhaps all democracy leads back to dictatorship because all democracy does is encourage everyone to promise folks the moon. It's weird, but it's what I've been thinking lately. Maybe it goes full cirlce all the time.
(*END*)
You are right, and the boomers that are starting to get on what people cal the "dole" have already put in the equivalent of 45 years of on the average $15,000 per year, though until about 1980 the payment were somewhat smaller, I still think the the cumulative value of this savings with compound interest should well exceed $1.5 MM, that should yield at least $75,000 per year, but most will get less than $20,000/year. How can that system be broke, is beyond me, there are some $3 T invested in treasuries and that is much less than should be there, by a good factor of 5 or so. It is kind of late, so I am not sure, if these numbers make much sense. Good night to all night owls.
08/29: (289208) (*COMMENT*)
"45 years of on the average $15,000 per year"
hrm. actually, i think that's high. even now the contribution is something like 6.2%, capped at under $87k, so the maximum contribution is slightly north of $5000/yr.
(*END*)
Since 1985, when I became "gainfully unemployed" I have paid to social security, pretty close to 15%, sometimes even more when the 2.5% or so of medicare continued to be paid beyond the max of $67.000 to $87,000 (the range on which only Social security is calculated). I remember a year when I was "outraged" that my medicare contribution was almost as large as my social security contribution (since then I have learned to limit "earned income" and get more "Unearned income <g>).
08/29: (289215) (*COMMENT*)
Actually, there are very good economic reasons to support the system, but of course fund it correctly and not raid it for other purposes. The system provides in essence for a "demand of last resort", so you do not get GDP decline swings of 30% as we did in the depression of 1929/1940. I maintain that current contribution rates invested in long term federal bonds should be amply sufficient to provide for the outlays expected.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:287058, 08/22/04
08/19: (286578) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Interesting. Zeev, I posted a bunch of charts tonight, and for some reason things seem easier to read right now. Whether that translates into actual movement in the direction indicated remains to be seen.
Some things I'm seeing indicated include Gold at 435, TNX at 40.80, USD dropping, BPNDX testing 43, SPX testing the upper channel line at 1137, MSFT testing 28.75, SNDK testing 25, INTC possibly testing 25, VIX daily confirming this week's low as at least a multi-month low, and oil breaking a rising wedge up in a bullish move within an inverse H&S targeting $63.
(Part 2)
Oil at $63 and an up market, not at the same time, I take it....
(Part 3)
Well, I first posted that WTIC chart back in March and that $62-63 target was put on at that time. I'm not saying it needs to happen now or that it will occur. I'm just pointing it out. The channel on the weekly chart seems to be "barreling" towards the target.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[h,a]waclyiay[pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!h.02,.20!c50!c10....
Here's the first time I mentioned the inverse H&S in March:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2615302
The progression of the weekly chart suggests we could reach the measured target within 8-weeks. I hope it doesn't really.
(*END*)
AJ, not questioning the possibility, but the coincidence, I think that if that happens in the near future, it should probably coincide with a local low in equities in early to mid October.
08/20: (286581) (*COMMENT*)
SEMI equipment chart for July. It's beginning to look like 1999. Gottfried [Suppressed Chart Link]
(*END*)
Yup, but do you remember how grand late 1999 was and how high AMAT went in mid 2000?
08/20: (286947) (*COMMENT*)
Broke 1370, then closed below, but assuming the NASI advanced its' turning today, a decent green on Monday will be the signal that "da boyz" are going to run this market up. Only an ugly monday can change my view from becoming firmly bullish.
(*END*)
Monday should have a high probability of being red, IMTO. Not much, but still red.
08/21: (287001) (*COMMENT*)
A sharp bottom in October would set the stage for a nice January effect.
(*END*)
No disagreement there, two questions, though, will the October low be just a retrench from about 1940/75 to 1830/80 area, or do we revisit the 1750... so far, the last 90 Naz points run have not developed excess optimism and if 1940 is reached without too much optimism, we may avoid the "worse fate" of a new low in October.
ZEEV, TRADING - up to ZEEV:287058, 08/22/04
08/18: (285947) (*COMMENT*)
If the rally continues, do you continue to slowly raise cash? Do you ever get bearish and hold significant cash for extended time period?
(*END*)
Oh ya, I have been known to have as little as 10% cash, typically, if I think only a major retrench is coming, I will go to 50% to 60% cash. Minor retrenches call for 25% to 35 % cash. That was my mistake on the last run toward 2055 in July, I raised cash to just 25%, since I expected the retrench to be mild and contained in the high 1900, or at least at the old Maginot line at 1940. Was quite wrong and by the time we were near 1900 I was already fully loaded, though every small bounce was used to take few profitable trades. Right now I am still well under 20% cash here with the addition SNPS.
ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:287058, 08/22/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).
Wecus updated his ROADMAP chart through August 20th, 2004
ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:287058, 08/22/04
08/20: (286966) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
What followed was a 5-year bull market (to '87) or an 18 year super bull (to 2000), depending on how you measure it.
I remember it well. Interest rates had come down from 18% to 8% or so, the market had been moribund all summer long, and suddenly the market literally exploded to the upside on huge volume.
(Part 2)
And that is where the two markets differ, volume is still tepid. At that August 1982 bottom, we had a string of 10 trading days, where there was not a single new high on the NYSE, on that last day, just a day before the turn, I said to myself, "how much worse can it be"? Unfortunately, at that time my investment resources where quite puny and my experience barely 5 years, so I got out too early and lost most of the gains on shorting what I thought was excessive bullishness early in 1983, little did I know c'est la vie... At least, I stayed out completely of the October 87 massacre, but had a lonely short which was badly selected, it dropped only 10% and the next day, almost all of that was lost. Recognizing my lack of ability to make money on the short side, I finally gave that up.
(Part 3)
Zeev - You obviously have experience now. Do you still not short stocks? (I haven't seen a post from you where you short anything.)
(*END*)
I still avoid the dark side. If at all, on rare occasions, I may hedge a little with QQQ shorts when I sense a spill coming, I do not post these, I prefer to increase cash and wait for an opportune time to get back to the long side. Kind of "stick to what you know best".
08/21: (286997) (*COMMENT*)
Today's tepid volume is not the only difference. There's also the matter of valuation, but I wont get into that right now. The interesting thing was that we were in the infancy of the PC revolution and we were using Osbornes and Kaypros to keep Visicalc spreadsheets of our stocks. I have always had a keen sense of value so naturally I stayed out of the Microsoft and Lotus IPOs and shorted an astronomically priced hardware chain by the name of Home Depot. <g> I think that was my first short--and I was lucky not to lose my shirt. There were many others -- some winners, others losers, like Holly Sugar. I climbed the experience curve with fairly small positions so no mistake would be lethal.
Trying to make money on the short side in a bull market is usually a losing experience. I simply liked to have one or two shorts for insurance purposes. Still think it makes sense to be long stocks one likes and short stocks one hates. Market neutrality is not such a bad idea.
(*END*)
Not a bad philosophy, as for valuation differences, these are not really that much different, at the time (August 1982) stock were competing with safe 30 years treasuries yielding between 13% to 16%, thus the then PE of 6/7 would be equivalent to today's pe of 15/18 on the S&P.
08/21: (287012) (*COMMENT*)
I beg to disagree. Back then, interest rate had nowhere to go but lower, thus a higher stock valuation was warranted. Now, interest rate will have to go up and compress stock P/E. the way i see it, now is completely the opposite to the 80's situtation.
(*END*)
It is not the opposite, it is just different, I agree with you that long rate will climb up and thus PE will compress, but for the current rates, PE are at the bottom part of their traditional range, so another rally into 2005 is quite possible. Longer term, late 2005 and maybe even 2006, I still have us in our friendly secular bear, which at the time (April 2000, #reply-13483082), I suggested may last for a good 5 to 10 years, maybe even 16 as in the 1966/82 period.
ZEEV, OTHER - up to ZEEV:287058, 08/22/04
08/21: (287027) (*COMMENT*)
#msg-3861190
(*END*)
Unfortunately, "Off label" use of new drugs is extremely difficult to control. Drug companies have legion of detail people visiting physicians, and without "openly" suggesting use of drugs off label, by "wink and giggle" and anecdotic "evidence" get physicians to broaden the application to many conditions for which such drugs have not been tested. The situation is even worse in life threatening situations, where the FDA, for reasons beyond my comprehension, approves drug for specific cancers (like IMCL' Erbitux (see an earlier post of mine on the subject #msg-2364433) and then by "wink and giggle" procedures, they expand it to many other situations threatening the lives of those patients. I think it is time that drug company official take the oath each physician does of "doing no harm" before attempting to do good. Right now the bottom line pressures are simply too strong, and moral compasses in corporate board rooms too rare.
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:284344, 08/15/04
08/09: (281224) (*COMMENT*)
My Two Centavos
The big, bad correction IS over. Da boyz ain't gonna put the crucial and important Google IPO at risk. There are too many creatures to pull into the net with this bloated offering.
(*END*)
I was under the impression "Da Boyz" want the Google ipo to fail, so that others do not follow with dutch auctions that reduce "Da boyz" income from underwriting by 50%....
08/10: (282096) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev, do you see a lot more down for SMH, or do you think (as I think you do for the COMP) that this may be about "it?"
(Part 2)
I think it is about "it" after a sharp hit tomorrow, maybe BRCM and MRVL will be made available at a nice discount.
(Part 3)
Bet one of them warns soon.
(*END*)
I don't think so, the economy is really not doing as bad as it "feels". My understanding of the "cycle" is that AG has no choice but to raise rates, maybe as high as 3%, if for no other reason that he knows that a consumer led recession is coming sooner or later and he got to have ammunition to "stand against the wind" (namely a rate from which a decrease will have an impact). As far as business is concerned the short term rates are not that important, it is the long term rates that count. Because of the wide current spread, there is ample room to raise short term rates with only minimal impact on the long term rates. Thus the initial few fed rate increases will have only minimal impact (except of "psychological") on economic activity. Once he gets to the 2.5% to 3% rate, then the long term rates may start and follow and have an impact. Frankly, I fear the feds like most generals are fighting the last generation's battles, inflation, and because of globalization deflation is to be feared more than inflation, but WTHDIK.
By the way, CSCO and NMS have little impact so far on Asian markets, they are uniformly higher.
08/11: (282751) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
I still have max pain at $35/$36 on the QQQ, ample time for them to kill the puts...
(Part 2)
I have it at about 1390 NDX, but the SMH pain could be as low as 31.60 right now (400 SOX). Orthodox SOX Pain is 412.
The dragonfly in the ointment is the SPX and Dow. Neither of those indices look like they've bottomed. The SPX looks like it's built a bear flag off the lows on the 60-minute, as does the Dow.
The VIX daily is also holding above the 50 level on the RSI-5, which suggests a higher VIX move yet. That combined with the lower VIX readings today and low put/call make me a bit leery of this low.
There's always something unsatisfying about the lows when we get them, but instead of one thing here there's about 10 things that are bothering me about this low.
(*END*)
Well, we are more than 10% under "orthodox" SOX max pain, and about the same under QQQ max pain, do we get firework? I wish few other parameters fell better in line (most did, but rather than simultaneously, they did it sequentially, unusual, but not particularly rare).
08/12: (283354) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev, when things are going our way, you say the days events have no effect on the market and they just give the market an excuse to do what it's going to do anyway.
Why in the last couple of weeks do the days events now seem to have an effect greater than the usual "noise?"
(Part 2)
They don't they are just used as excuses and creating fluctuations. It is just the same with "Da boyz" and the PPT, when the market goes up against shorts, the shorts yell, it is the PPT, when it goes down against the bulls, the bulls yells, "Da boyz" are going to bring it to....
(Part 3)
Then why do you say HPQ threw a monkey wrench into the works today if you expected a gap up? If Da Boyz wanted to take it up anyway, why didn't they?
No problem if this is just a one off but trying to see why HPQ is a monkey wrench instead of an excuse to do what it was going to do anyway or if the turnips are just off today that's understandable as well.
(*END*)
You are reading too much into a jest comment.
08/12: (283422) (*COMMENT*)
Z: Looks like the selling continues. INTC making new lows along with sox. You think 1750 (the long term trendline) gets respect?Where do you have us closing?
(*END*)
I thin 1750 will get some respect.
08/13: (284068) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I think the rest of the day is boring, but Monday we ought to see a spirited move up. TRINQ rising wedge suggess so, as do lots of other things.
In other words, I think we're on the same page <G>
I'm looking for the island gaps to fill, then another flush into the end of August, so we may be on the same page only for a couple of days.
(*END*)
From your keyboard to you know who... My patience is far from that of Job, and it is being tested here, severely.
08/15: (284278) (*COMMENT*)
I went "all in" the same time you did. After all these years, I should have known to fade you by a week...lol.
(*END*)
I should have known myself....(g).
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