Wyckoff volume benchmarking / market profile bt analysis board

[jxyzobrien]

larry p tim ord
tim ord

larry p

[keepsinvesting]

Didnt know but stan harley on today. Cool

[jxyzobrien]

intra day
he goes long or short everyday
i will post larry p video tonite

larry saying if rally next week or so
failure at fib .38 from top

would be real bad
it would mean a triple zig zag

moor analytics bearish on crude
unleaded gas leading oil down

[Twilson]

So he put the bull suit on?

[jxyzobrien]

shane covered near lows
from larry p show

[jxyzobrien]

excess low 10am
edge bulls till poor hi or excess high
but not worth the risk

[Twilson]

Just when it appears to start running the selling kicks back in

[jxyzobrien]

chop ugly
if no rally out of balance area by the afternoon
we are balancing to go lower

[jxyzobrien]

trade the edges only
3rd day of balancing
we did a look below and fail yesterday falling out of balance area low
then re entering value area

[Twilson]

Sounds like quick trades is best for now

[jxyzobrien]

spx trendline bounce
stan harley oct 6 bottom

shadow thinks market is more bearish then what he thinks

this is a market correction and will not bounce till multiple rally attempts are made
https://www.shadowtrader.net/premarket-perspective-230928_free/

[Twilson]

The way it came off lows yesterday I was thinking it may have bottomed thanks

[jxyzobrien]

no
gold is still trying to find buyers

oil had 2 triple distributions and structure is very weak
needs to pullback and accept these higher prices

china weak so oil p/b
dollar weak so no gold or oil buyers is troubling for gold or oil longs

oil is so news sensitive it immediately reacts

[keepsinvesting]

So 2 more rally days on oil, gold… im not gonna touch… only shorts for me… longs havent been working for me

[jxyzobrien]

news trumps all indicators
china is just so important
the eia news was plain ignored or priced in

the key was holding the vwap all the way up

buyers came in before daily wtic 20da ma indicating
they did not want to miss rally
oil loves to do 3 day moves too

gold is trying to bottom

[keepsinvesting]

I learned that overbought indicators on oil should be ignored. Rather.. just read price action

[jxyzobrien]

oil stuff
wtic
https://schrts.co/eHTaecnS
uso
https://schrts.co/uJgmCVvp
xle
https://schrts.co/QFmPJdnx

[jxyzobrien]

stan harley
min 24
oct 6 is lucas pattern low

[uplata]

Spx got short term support here today..4238 which is near 200ema..

All big guys bought today near 4238 area ..

Let see

[jxyzobrien]

conflicting news on spending deal
so now sellers

[jxyzobrien]

spending bill resolution rally

[jxyzobrien]

interest rates
rising again
fed speak is interest rates may have to go higher
trin showing no panic
put call tame too
so bottom today

[jxyzobrien]

2 days of
triple distribution on oil
so oil needs a base to rally from

we need to go sideways at these prices
or sell off back to the vpoc

[jxyzobrien]

oil
looks like tops 1200
small build on oil
small draw on gasoline

market looked past that

cl 4hr es 70
doubled the base and then 30c higher

highest buying volume in months

[jxyzobrien]

oil tops before lunch usually
1030am oil news
first day of excess high out of balance area
gold is dollar sensitive
while oil seems to react more to news
oil 4 hr rsi 63
as many traders say in this market they do not like to chase breakouts
not saying to short by any means
https://schrts.co/SKRvaUrm

[keepsinvesting]

I have 92.78, above that can go to 95+

[jxyzobrien]

china news and oil
as china goes so does oil
china president announced measures to stimulate china economy.

high volume highs usually gets tested
so 92.43

eia today

[keepsinvesting]

Looks like breakout in effect. Targeting previous high of course

[jxyzobrien]

oil eia data tommorrow
many oil traders layoff trading on api or eia data release.


oil at top of balance area is not the best location for longs

[jxyzobrien]

balancing rules in effect
odds favor oil stays in balance area
till news comes out

oil likes 30 min timeframe

[keepsinvesting]

Im just lookin for a flip. Thoughts on oil?
Been sideways, and making lower lows on the sideways consolidation

[jxyzobrien]

no trin panic yet or put exhaustion.
some buyers have been nibbling.
any bounce now
will not hold up

[Twilson]

Getting close

[keepsinvesting]

Should be a bounce here ES 4305. Demand zone. Looking for 4350+

[jxyzobrien]

p/b not done yet
when the down move ends
the abcd will be done and move away HARD
from the lows

leg a down july end to mid august
was -264 spy points

b leg down down
spy 4520 to 4210
https://schrts.co/MFADZFzV

[Twilson]

It is oversold for sure RSI in the gutter daily at 30 and hourly 28

[jxyzobrien]

what i know
the market is doing a double zigzag down and will do an EW abc up when the down move pauses
up to fib .38 to .50 of the down move

in corrections double zigzags are common

https://elliottwave-forecast.com/video-blog/sugar-double-zigzag-elliott-wave-structure/

[Twilson]

It went from calling the top to calling the bottom but it just keeps sliding lower...lol not you but other Ihub'ers and it is trying to bounce now

[jxyzobrien]

storm seems to be killing market
slow selling
wait till buyers
then match with sells

[d-k]

Here is scale. Looks like they are rounding to nearest integer.

Click on "Geomagnetic storms" in link below.

Interestingly, it also indicates what are affected by these storms.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

[Twilson]

Thanks the first 4.67 has G1 beside it but the 4.33 above it has nothing. Is 4.33 not strong enough to affect anything?

[jxyzobrien]

storm info

[jxyzobrien]

thanks for info
storms are not instantaneous. they can happen over night and produce selling the next day
shadow premkt videos
https://www.shadowtrader.net/premarket-perspective-230926_free/?mc_cid=8ce773bac3&mc_eid=012c1d195b

[d-k]

NOAA UST time is 5 hour ahead of EST time. i.e. EST is 5 hour behind the time shown at NOAA site.

I don't know if NOAA info is updated at set time or as info comes in.

[jxyzobrien]

seasonality and double storms
it seems like a double storm does not do much
seems once humans sell they have satisfied the impulse the storm has created

it seems a short term bottom is close
bottoms happen with no sellers or exhaustion selling

2 longer term views
shane- sell into year end
seasonal bottom is very close

steve rhodes